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Red Sox vs. Indians ALDS Game 3 Gameday Thread
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Post by jmei on Oct 8, 2016 10:40:44 GMT -5
SUNDAY, OCT. 9 ALDS Game 3: Boston Red Sox (Clay Buchholz, 8-10, 4.78) vs. Cleveland Indians (Josh Tomlin, 13-9, 4.40), 4:00 p.m. ET (TBS).MONDAY, OCT. 10ALDS Game 3: Boston Red Sox (Clay Buchholz, 8-10, 4.78) vs. Cleveland Indians (Josh Tomlin, 13-9, 4.40), 6:08 p.m. ET (TBS). MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsWeatherSeries Thread Disclaimer: The SoxProspects Moderators will be somewhat liberal in policing the Red Sox "Series" Threads. Some of the Ground Rules are applied loosely in here, as we understand that there is a tendency to want to react (or overreact) to every play of a Sox game with one line reactionary posts. Those posts are okay in the Red Sox Series threads to a point - we certainly appreciate the passion. Just try not to overdo it, and try to maintain some semblance of reason. In addition, please don't let those type of posts spill over to other more substantive threads, where they may be deleted. -The Management
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Post by Coreno on Oct 8, 2016 12:29:29 GMT -5
well, its do or die for the whole team, but Clay might be pitching for his life tomorrow. If he craps the bed, he, JF, and Willis better never put a sox uniform on again. Or he can help this team flip the switch and get momentum going their way. He might not be back with us next year either way, but if he looks good, its a lot easier to get that bidding war going for him.
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Post by Don Caballero on Oct 8, 2016 12:38:05 GMT -5
No 2 ways about it, time for Clay to nut up.
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Post by p23w on Oct 8, 2016 13:39:31 GMT -5
The beauty of baseball is that the Red Sox season comes down to one game at a time. What makes this interesting to me is that the first "one game"at a time starter is our own born and bred Clay Buchholz. If the Red Sox are to continue in the post season it begins with this man. Once the subject of our highest expectations, more recently the subject of exasperation and contempt. I for one will never forget Clay's start in AA against a recently signed Roger Clemens (NYYankees). I was present, and the game was a gem. Whilst I forget the final outcome I do remember both pitchers going 7 innings and the score being tied at 1. Whereas this team traded away the likes of high end pitching talent like Curt Shilling, and allowed world class pitching talent sign with other teams (Clemens and Lester), to date they have kept Buccholz. I would dearly love for Buchholz to begin the reversal of Red Sox fortunes for the 2016 post season. As a collection of players this team is better than the 2016 Cleveland Indians. They need to prove this starting tomorrow, with Clay Buchholz on the mound. If it is not to be I will be greatly disappointed. Like most of us, I wanted something better for David Ortiz's last game. The time is now, to stand and deliver.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Oct 8, 2016 14:23:46 GMT -5
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Post by burythehammer on Oct 8, 2016 16:51:30 GMT -5
This game isn't about Clay to me. He can't implode, but after the day off we can easily go to the bullpen after his second time through the order. This game is about us getting to Tomlin and getting a lead before Miller comes in the game. We have the lineup to do it. No excuses.
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Post by dnfl333 on Oct 8, 2016 20:01:04 GMT -5
Will it be Vintage Bucholz or Vintage Buchholz
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 8, 2016 20:22:57 GMT -5
This game isn't about Clay to me. He can't implode, but after the day off we can easily go to the bullpen after his second time through the order. This game is about us getting to Tomlin and getting a lead before Miller comes in the game. We have the lineup to do it. No excuses. It better be a big lead. I don't trust the bullpen to hold it. At this point I don't trust Kimbrel. His control is brutal right now.
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Post by dnfl333 on Oct 8, 2016 23:03:40 GMT -5
This game isn't about Clay to me. He can't implode, but after the day off we can easily go to the bullpen after his second time through the order. This game is about us getting to Tomlin and getting a lead before Miller comes in the game. We have the lineup to do it. No excuses. It better be a big lead. I don't trust the bullpen to hold it. At this point I don't trust Kimbrel. His control is brutal right now. We still got Koji
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 9, 2016 1:41:56 GMT -5
Bob Costas tonight during the Cubs game said something I meant to say before the post-season started (so it wouldn't be seen as after-the-fact sour grapes): the 5-game Division Series makes no sense at all. I''ll go further: it's an abomination.
Costas pointed out the most obvious problem: it's just way more random. Why would MLB want to sacrifice TV and gate revenues for as many as 8 additional playoff games in order to do that? Why increase the odds that the best teams, with the most star players, will be eliminated early by bad luck? The 2007 Sox had incredibly bad luck on batted balls over the first 4 games of the ALCS, and had that been a 5-game series, it's done.
But there's an even bigger problem that the Sox are staring at now: in a 5 game series as currently scheduled, your best pitcher starts 40% of the games instead of 20%. After playing 162 games where starting rotation depth is so important that the Red Sox felt they needed to trade Anderson Espinoza to fix it, you get to essentially replace your fifth starter with a duplicate of your ace, who's 4% of your roster but is now something like 14% of your team. Furthermore, this is true even if your ace is only available to pitch game 2 rather the game 1. So the two off days, plus the preceding off days where the WC is being played, essentially negate the traditional advantage of clinching early and setting up your rotation.
But wait, there's more. In a 5-game series home field advantage is even more important than in a 7-game series, and in the current setup, it's very easy for a team in a tough division to be demonstrably 2 or 3 games better than a rival in a weaker division, but finish 1 game behind them due to a much tougher schedule. Like, say, the 2016 Boston Red Sox versus the Cleveland Indians.
I went into this post-season hoping for a Sox / Cubs WS. With both teams, my preference, if they failed to get to the WS, would be to lose the DS in 5 close games where luck was clearly a factor. Teams come back from 3-2 deficits so easily in a 7-game series ... if we're not going to make the WS, I want the powers that be in MLB to spend all winter thinking about how many more TV viewers the WS would have had if it had featured the Sox as the Cubs opponent rather than the Blue Jays (or Indians, but I don't see that happening), and why they were so idiotic as to let luck get in the way of that, when they could have alleviated that factor significantly by being forced to broadcast one or two more games where the Sox and Big Papi faced off against their former manager.
As far as adding to the length of the season, here's an idea: eliminate a travel day (first travel day in two of the series, second travel day in the other two). Force each team to use all 5 of its starters, which will further reward the better teams. Now the series takes one extra day (which you might recover by eliminating the travel day between the WC game and the start of the DS -- more incentive to win the division). The only time you'd really need a travel day was when a series was going from East Coast to the West, so unless you have 3 division series involving West Coast teams, all of whom have the same home-field advantage situation, there's no problem. And that's yet to happen in 23 years.
This team will contend for years to come. If the Sox losing in 5 to an inferior Indians team will help motivate MLB to get rid of the 5-game DS, that's a significant silver lining in my book. Anf course it will make it easier for DDo to "simply move in another direction, even though we think JF did a fine job."
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 9, 2016 3:21:07 GMT -5
Josh Tomlin made 13 starts this year against teams with below-average offenses. Here's their average slash line (team slash lines for the season weighted by batters he faced) and R/G, and what he allowed:
.255 / .313 / .406, 4.19 R/G, Teams .234 / .250 / .409, 2.99 ERA, Tomlin
Those included all four of his great September starts.
He made 16 starts against average and above-average offensive teams:
.260 / .326 / .433, 4.68 R/G, Teams .299 / .324 / .555, 5.79 ERA, Tomlin
OTOH, his 2015 and 2016 splits by batting order show a different pattern (he became a BABIP jedi in 2015, so earlier data is suspect):
Bats PA BA OBP SA K% BB% HRC BABIP 1/2 240 .275 .299 .511 .158 .029 .062 .284 3/4 232 .239 .259 .478 .125 .022 .076 .214 5/6 214 .256 .274 .502 .234 .019 .069 .284 7-9 281 .237 .270 .402 .196 .036 .052 .257
AL Ave .257 .320 .422 .211 .076 .046 .299 I think this is a case where the smallness of the samples is a confound. I doubt he has any skill agsinst 3 and 4 hitters given the first set of splits, but they may have been more likely to get themselves out. BABIP skill is hard to sustain, I think.
He's had insane reverse splits the last 2 years; all the BABIP magic is against LHB.
Vs PA BA OBP SLG K% BB% HRC BABIP RHB 549 .284 .314 .530 .186 .033 .073 .299 LHB 425 .208 .224 .391 .172 .019 .053 .210 Young should be in LF. I'd love to see Holt out of the 2 hole (with Betts to Hanley moved up one) and I hope he proves me wrong.
JBJ has actually hit him well, 3/7, HR, but the HR came 8/15 when he was in one of his hot streaks. I think you hit him 9th and hope he busts out.
He could frustrate the hell out of us, but a reasonable expectation would be for Hanley and one other RHB to take him deep. And hope for Papi, too (3/17, BB, but they're all HRs). Three HR would be good. It might ne necessary. And against a low OBP / high SA guy like this, sequencing luck can be huge.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 9, 2016 4:49:21 GMT -5
I really don't want to stop watching baseball yet....throw the kitchen sink at them and find a way....
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 9, 2016 8:01:58 GMT -5
It better be a big lead. I don't trust the bullpen to hold it. At this point I don't trust Kimbrel. His control is brutal right now. We still got Koji That's great for the 8th, but what of the 9th?
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 9, 2016 8:04:47 GMT -5
Will the game happen today?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 9, 2016 8:08:03 GMT -5
Bob Costas tonight during the Cubs game said something I meant to say before the post-season started (so it wouldn't be seen as after-the-fact sour grapes): the 5-game Division Series makes no sense at all. I''ll go further: it's an abomination. Costas pointed out the most obvious problem: it's just way more random. Why would MLB want to sacrifice TV and gate revenues for as many as 8 additional playoff games in order to do that? Why increase the odds that the best teams, with the most star players, will be eliminated early by bad luck? The 2007 Sox had incredibly bad luck on batted balls over the first 4 games of the ALCS, and had that been a 5-game series, it's done. But there's an even bigger problem that the Sox are staring at now: in a 5 game series as currently scheduled, your best pitcher starts 40% of the games instead of 20%. After playing 162 games where starting rotation depth is so important that the Red Sox felt they needed to trade Anderson Espinoza to fix it, you get to essentially replace your fifth starter with a duplicate of your ace, who's 4% of your roster but is now something like 14% of your team. Furthermore, this is true even if your ace is only available to pitch game 2 rather the game 1. So the two off days, plus the preceding off days where the WC is being played, essentially negate the traditional advantage of clinching early and setting up your rotation. But wait, there's more. In a 5-game series home field advantage is even more important than in a 7-game series, and in the current setup, it's very easy for a team in a tough division to be demonstrably 2 or 3 games better than a rival in a weaker division, but finish 1 game behind them due to a much tougher schedule. Like, say, the 2016 Boston Red Sox versus the Cleveland Indians. I went into this post-season hoping for a Sox / Cubs WS. With both teams, my preference, if they failed to get to the WS, would be to lose the DS in 5 close games where luck was clearly a factor. Teams come back from 3-2 deficits so easily in a 7-game series ... if we're not going to make the WS, I want the powers that be in MLB to spend all winter thinking about how many more TV viewers the WS would have had if it had featured the Sox as the Cubs opponent rather than the Blue Jays (or Indians, but I don't see that happening), and why they were so idiotic as to let luck get in the way of that, when they could have alleviated that factor significantly by being forced to broadcast one or two more games where the Sox and Big Papi faced off against their former manager. As far as adding to the length of the season, here's an idea: eliminate a travel day (first travel day in two of the series, second travel day in the other two). Force each team to use all 5 of its starters, which will further reward the better teams. Now the series takes one extra day (which you might recover by eliminating the travel day between the WC game and the start of the DS -- more incentive to win the division) . The only time you'd really need a travel day was when a series was going from East Coast to the West, so unless you have 3 division series involving West Coast teams, all of whom have the same home-field advantage situation, there's no problem. And that's yet to happen in 23 years. This team will contend for years to come. If the Sox losing in 5 to an inferior Indians team will help motivate MLB to get rid of the 5-game DS, that's a significant silver lining in my book. Anf course it will make it easier for DDo to "simply move in another direction, even though we think JF did a fine job." I doubt that would move the meter any. The Red Sox playing like crap to an Indians team that has done just about everything right isn't going to make MLB change to the series to 7 games. I agree it should be changed but for that to happen the regular season would need to be shortened and the owners want no part of that. That's why this extra series that was fairly recently created is only 5 games. The ALCS and NLCS as you recall was expanded from 5 games to 7 games, in time to rescue the 85 Royals (the first year of it) and then the 86 Red Sox. Maybe in time they do that to the division series, but the season is already bumping into November, and unless the owners are willing to give up something like a few extra games in the season, it won't happen. And what concession would the players make? At this point, I'm sure they'd like the DH in the NL, which is a higher salary than the 25th man on a NL bench, which I doubt the owners (the Cubs with Schwarber might feel different) in the NL want.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 9, 2016 9:30:38 GMT -5
Will the game happen today? Weather.com has it raining all day long, with tomorrow sunny. Oh, yeah, in a 5-game series, 1 day of rain at the right time renders a team's 4th starter meaningless, too. In this case, Bauer will get to pitch game 4 on regular rest instead of making his first career start on 3 days.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 9, 2016 9:34:36 GMT -5
Bob Costas tonight during the Cubs game said something I meant to say before the post-season started (so it wouldn't be seen as after-the-fact sour grapes): the 5-game Division Series makes no sense at all. I''ll go further: it's an abomination. Costas pointed out the most obvious problem: it's just way more random. Why would MLB want to sacrifice TV and gate revenues for as many as 8 additional playoff games in order to do that? Why increase the odds that the best teams, with the most star players, will be eliminated early by bad luck? The 2007 Sox had incredibly bad luck on batted balls over the first 4 games of the ALCS, and had that been a 5-game series, it's done. But there's an even bigger problem that the Sox are staring at now: in a 5 game series as currently scheduled, your best pitcher starts 40% of the games instead of 20%. After playing 162 games where starting rotation depth is so important that the Red Sox felt they needed to trade Anderson Espinoza to fix it, you get to essentially replace your fifth starter with a duplicate of your ace, who's 4% of your roster but is now something like 14% of your team. Furthermore, this is true even if your ace is only available to pitch game 2 rather the game 1. So the two off days, plus the preceding off days where the WC is being played, essentially negate the traditional advantage of clinching early and setting up your rotation. But wait, there's more. In a 5-game series home field advantage is even more important than in a 7-game series, and in the current setup, it's very easy for a team in a tough division to be demonstrably 2 or 3 games better than a rival in a weaker division, but finish 1 game behind them due to a much tougher schedule. Like, say, the 2016 Boston Red Sox versus the Cleveland Indians. I went into this post-season hoping for a Sox / Cubs WS. With both teams, my preference, if they failed to get to the WS, would be to lose the DS in 5 close games where luck was clearly a factor. Teams come back from 3-2 deficits so easily in a 7-game series ... if we're not going to make the WS, I want the powers that be in MLB to spend all winter thinking about how many more TV viewers the WS would have had if it had featured the Sox as the Cubs opponent rather than the Blue Jays (or Indians, but I don't see that happening), and why they were so idiotic as to let luck get in the way of that, when they could have alleviated that factor significantly by being forced to broadcast one or two more games where the Sox and Big Papi faced off against their former manager. As far as adding to the length of the season, here's an idea: eliminate a travel day (first travel day in two of the series, second travel day in the other two). Force each team to use all 5 of its starters, which will further reward the better teams. Now the series takes one extra day (which you might recover by eliminating the travel day between the WC game and the start of the DS -- more incentive to win the division) . The only time you'd really need a travel day was when a series was going from East Coast to the West, so unless you have 3 division series involving West Coast teams, all of whom have the same home-field advantage situation, there's no problem. And that's yet to happen in 23 years. This team will contend for years to come. If the Sox losing in 5 to an inferior Indians team will help motivate MLB to get rid of the 5-game DS, that's a significant silver lining in my book. Anf course it will make it easier for DDo to "simply move in another direction, even though we think JF did a fine job." I doubt that would move the meter any. The Red Sox playing like crap to an Indians team that has done just about everything right isn't going to make MLB change to the series to 7 games. I agree it should be changed but for that to happen the regular season would need to be shortened and the owners want no part of that. That's why this extra series that was fairly recently created is only 5 games. The ALCS and NLCS as you recall was expanded from 5 games to 7 games, in time to rescue the 85 Royals (the first year of it) and then the 86 Red Sox. Maybe in time they do that to the division series, but the season is already bumping into November, and unless the owners are willing to give up something like a few extra games in the season, it won't happen. And what concession would the players make? At this point, I'm sure they'd like the DH in the NL, which is a higher salary than the 25th man on a NL bench, which I doubt the owners (the Cubs with Schwarber might feel different) in the NL want. I'm talking about kicking their ass over three more games but still losing game 5 on a bad break of some sort. I explained how they can fit in the two extra games without extending the post-season at all, while at the same time making the DS even more fair. I'm not sure the players would need a concession -- they're trading one day of travel in the post-season for more fairness in it -- but there's already a huge need to expand the regular season roster to as many as 28.
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Post by bsout2 on Oct 9, 2016 9:36:36 GMT -5
Will the game happen today? Looking at the radar I would assume not. I wouldn't mind the Red Sox playing the next three games with out a day of rest. If the Red Sox could stretch it to five games, I think it would benefit them more than the Indians to skip the rest day. . Of course the Indians could get crazy and skip Tomlin tomorrow and pitch Bauer, Miller and Allen again.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 9, 2016 10:13:10 GMT -5
Will the game happen today? Looking at the radar I would assume not. I wouldn't mind the Red Sox playing the next three games with out a day of rest. If the Red Sox could stretch it to five games, I think it would benefit them more than the Indians to skip the rest day. . Of course the Indians could get crazy and skip Tomlin tomorrow and pitch Bauer, Miller and Allen again. It doesn't benefit the Sox. It's a big benefit to the Indians. How did the Sox come back against the Indians in an identical situation in 1999? Tribe manager Mike Hargrove opted to fill his bullpen with 7 short relievers, even though he had an effective long man in rookie Jim Brower (who had however pitched poorly in two September starts). They were leading 1-0 in Game 3 when starter Dave Burba got hurt after 4 1-hit innings. He then made a Grady-level mistake: rather than try to get 5 innings from his short guys, he brought in his game 4 starter, Jaret Wright, in relief, which would mean that the last two games would be started by Bartolo Colon and Charles Nagy, each pitching on 3 days rest. They had allowed 3 ER in 15 IP with 15 SO, 3 BB, and 10 H combined in games 1 and 2 Wright got hammered. Colon and Nagy gave up 14 ER in 4 IP (3 SO, 3 BB, 12 H) pitching on 3 days rest. And an injured Pedro rescued us in game 5. Pitching a guy on 3 days rest who's never done it before is a big gamble. The Indians won't have to do that with Bauer if today's game is rained out. Furthermore, the temptation to pitch Porcello in 4 and Price in 5 will be strong, and I liked E-Rod vs. short-rest Bauer and Porcello vs. Kluber much better than the likely revised matchups. You can see them wasting a great Porcello start in game 4 and then having Kluber outpitch Price again in game 5.
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Post by bsout2 on Oct 9, 2016 10:28:18 GMT -5
I disagree, in order to for the Red Sox to win the series I think they need the following to happen:
Offensive explosion against Tomlin in game 3, causing Francona to go to his bullpen in inning 3 or 4.
Porcello throws a gem in game 4, need him to pitch 7 or 8 innings.
Hopefully Francona throws Miller for 20 - 30 pitches in games 3 and/or 4. Want to see Miller at 65+ pitches over the course of the first 4 games going into game 5.
Red Sox go into Game 5 starting Price and have Rodriguez ready to come in as soon as the second inning if Price looks flat again.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 9, 2016 10:46:15 GMT -5
Prediction: This game will be rained out.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Oct 9, 2016 11:03:40 GMT -5
The Red Sox will need to score more runs than the Indians to win the game.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Oct 9, 2016 11:50:13 GMT -5
Hope it doesn't rain out. Beautiful Autumn day....Fenway green....hometown crowd. i got some Senaca Lake Chardonnay, a great vibe and it's another October Sox game. What more could you ask for?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 9, 2016 12:34:01 GMT -5
Prediction: This game will be rained out. Weather.com radar prediction shows the current rain to continue until 6:30 PM, when it then gets merely light. I don't see any way they get it in, especially with 0% precipitation chance and 60 to 62 degree temps the next two days.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 9, 2016 12:35:52 GMT -5
The Red Sox will need to score more runs than the Indians to win the game. Furthermore, they will need to do so in one fewer inning (or a portion thereof).
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