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Post by manfred on Oct 12, 2016 9:09:09 GMT -5
Swihart is a great trade piece if he has maintained his value. Obviously that's a huge if after injury and position uncertainty. I have not seen anything that makes me think he hits well enough for other positions, but he could be a good hitting catcher.
Everyone wants to keep Devers et al. So maybe Swihart can be part of a package for relief help or an outfielder?
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Post by jdb on Oct 12, 2016 9:37:19 GMT -5
AAA to get his feet back under him and then our starting catcher the second half of the year.
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Post by soxpatsceltics on Oct 12, 2016 12:19:12 GMT -5
He's the only catcher with options. There's no way you trade Leon or Vazquez in order to make room for him, when he barely caught last year. He starts the season in AAA, where he can be expected to create a logjam or a very sweet trade situation by the trading deadline. End of thread. Sure he has an option. He's also significantly better than both Leon and Vazquez. You don't banish a top 15 prospect, who succeeded in the majors when he was called up about a year too early, to AAA in order to keep 2 backup catchers. That's bad roster management. I don't know how people can justify sending Swihart to AAA when he's very clearly the better player. Vazquez has started more games behind the plate and had more PAs compared to Swihart (99 to 84 for starts, 385 to 383 for PAs), and yet Swihart has been more than 3 times as valuable as Vazquez in his career. It isn't like the difference between the two is negligible. It's not even close.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 12, 2016 12:45:24 GMT -5
He's the only catcher with options. There's no way you trade Leon or Vazquez in order to make room for him, when he barely caught last year. He starts the season in AAA, where he can be expected to create a logjam or a very sweet trade situation by the trading deadline. End of thread. Sure he has an option. He's also significantly better than both Leon and Vazquez. You don't banish a top 15 prospect, who succeeded in the majors when he was called up about a year too early, to AAA in order to keep 2 backup catchers. That's bad roster management. I don't know how people can justify sending Swihart to AAA when he's very clearly the better player. Vazquez has started more games behind the plate and had more PAs compared to Swihart (99 to 84 for starts, 385 to 383 for PAs), and yet Swihart has been more than 3 times as valuable as Vazquez in his career. It isn't like the difference between the two is negligible. It's not even close. And, because of injury, he hasn't played baseball or been a catcher for months, with 4 more months before ST. Without quality time at C in ST and AAA before being called up, that would be a recipe for disaster. Let him heal, learn, be fully ready for the move.
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Post by soxpatsceltics on Oct 12, 2016 13:00:47 GMT -5
Sure he has an option. He's also significantly better than both Leon and Vazquez. You don't banish a top 15 prospect, who succeeded in the majors when he was called up about a year too early, to AAA in order to keep 2 backup catchers. That's bad roster management. I don't know how people can justify sending Swihart to AAA when he's very clearly the better player. Vazquez has started more games behind the plate and had more PAs compared to Swihart (99 to 84 for starts, 385 to 383 for PAs), and yet Swihart has been more than 3 times as valuable as Vazquez in his career. It isn't like the difference between the two is negligible. It's not even close. And, because of injury, he hasn't played baseball or been a catcher for months, with 4 more months before ST. Without quality time at C in ST and AAA before being called up, that would be a recipe for disaster. Let him heal, learn, be fully ready for the move. Hmmm I wonder how he got injured... Oh wait! It's because he was moved to LF for no reason! In 2014-15, Swihart caught a grand total of 49 AAA games before his call up. And despite that, he was the 4th best catcher in the entire league after the All-Star break (Schwarber doesn't count, he played twice as many games in the OF as he did behind the plate.) www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2015&month=31&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0Swihart is on track to be fine by spring training (so he'll get plenty of reps there), and he's already proved at the major league level that he doesn't need quality time in AAA in order to be a star in the league. We're not talking about a guy that we aren't sure is going to succeed in the league. We're talking about a former superstar prospect that has already succeeded in the majors.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 12, 2016 13:46:36 GMT -5
He's the only catcher with options. There's no way you trade Leon or Vazquez in order to make room for him, when he barely caught last year. He starts the season in AAA, where he can be expected to create a logjam or a very sweet trade situation by the trading deadline. End of thread. Sure he has an option. He's also significantly better than both Leon and Vazquez. You don't banish a top 15 prospect, who succeeded in the majors when he was called up about a year too early, to AAA in order to keep 2 backup catchers. That's bad roster management. I don't know how people can justify sending Swihart to AAA when he's very clearly the better player. Vazquez has started more games behind the plate and had more PAs compared to Swihart (99 to 84 for starts, 385 to 383 for PAs), and yet Swihart has been more than 3 times as valuable as Vazquez in his career. It isn't like the difference between the two is negligible. It's not even close. I've been meaning to update this. This is bWAR plus framing runs, per 120 games caught. I'm ignoring Swihart's 6 games at catcher last year, but he was -1 run DRS (rounded) and -0.7 framing, so omitting the 6 games helps him. The last column weights the 3 seasons 3-2-1. Catcher '14 '15 '16 Tot Wgt Vazquez 6.2 1.2 3.7 2.5 Leon -0.3 -3.1 3.9 1.3 2.0 Swihart -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 There's no knowing yet whether CV or Leon is better, but they are both starting caliber. Swihart, for all his upside, is at present nowhere close to either. He needs a solid half-year of defensive work, or more, before he's ready to catch in MLB. He has the tools to be plus; he just needs the reps in a situation where he can concentrate on the learning process rather than the results. That's why I said "end of thread."
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 12, 2016 14:19:35 GMT -5
And, because of injury, he hasn't played baseball or been a catcher for months, with 4 more months before ST. Without quality time at C in ST and AAA before being called up, that would be a recipe for disaster. Let him heal, learn, be fully ready for the move. Hmmm I wonder how he got injured... Oh wait! It's because he was moved to LF for no reason! In 2014-15, Swihart caught a grand total of 49 AAA games before his call up. And despite that, he was the 4th best catcher in the entire league after the All-Star break (Schwarber doesn't count, he played twice as many games in the OF as he did behind the plate.) www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2015&month=31&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0Swihart is on track to be fine by spring training (so he'll get plenty of reps there), and he's already proved at the major league level that he doesn't need quality time in AAA in order to be a star in the league. We're not talking about a guy that we aren't sure is going to succeed in the league. We're talking about a former superstar prospect that has already succeeded in the majors. fWAR for catchers excludes fielding entirely (because UZR doesn't bother trying to measure it). The "Defense" value for catchers is just their positional adjustment based on PT (go to Swihart's page to verify this). And of course fielding is far and away the biggest contributor to a catcher's value. DRS had him at -16 runs defensively in 2014. He was also -6 runs in pitch framing. Those figures are for his actual PT (76 games worth of innings), not per 120. That's why he was below replacement level.
Of course he's a plus bat for a catcher. That's what makes him a great prospect. He still needs to hone his catching -- a great deal.
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Post by soxpatsceltics on Oct 12, 2016 15:40:21 GMT -5
Hmmm I wonder how he got injured... Oh wait! It's because he was moved to LF for no reason! In 2014-15, Swihart caught a grand total of 49 AAA games before his call up. And despite that, he was the 4th best catcher in the entire league after the All-Star break (Schwarber doesn't count, he played twice as many games in the OF as he did behind the plate.) www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2015&month=31&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0Swihart is on track to be fine by spring training (so he'll get plenty of reps there), and he's already proved at the major league level that he doesn't need quality time in AAA in order to be a star in the league. We're not talking about a guy that we aren't sure is going to succeed in the league. We're talking about a former superstar prospect that has already succeeded in the majors. fWAR for catchers excludes fielding entirely (because UZR doesn't bother trying to measure it). The "Defense" value for catchers is just their positional adjustment based on PT (go to Swihart's page to verify this). And of course fielding is far and away the biggest contributor to a catcher's value. DRS had him at -16 runs defensively in 2014. He was also -6 runs in pitch framing. Those figures are for his actual PT (76 games worth of innings), not per 120. That's why he was below replacement level.
Of course he's a plus bat for a catcher. That's what makes him a great prospect. He still needs to hone his catching -- a great deal. A couple things to sort out over your last couple of comments. First off, Fangraphs does take into account catcher defense, and it actually very thorough. www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/catcher-defense/Secondly, I'm not sure where you got the bWAR framing runs, but in general for framing, I use statcorner www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.phpBased on 2015 stats, Swihart was a -13 in terms of strikes added, or -0.17/game. In 2015, Swihart was significantly better than many veteran catchers and most definitely proved that he belonged in the majors, not AAA. Based on 2015 numbers, Swihart (-13, -0.17/game) was a better defensive catcher than many good starting catchers... Brian McCann (-18, -0.17) Steven Vogt (-28, -0.32) Yan Gomes (-26, -0.34) Salvador Perez (-68, -0.53) AJ Pierzinski (-73, -0.75) JT Realmuto (-110, -1.01) Matt Weiters (-65, -1.25) Carlos Ruiz (-118, -1.47) Sandy Leon, in both 2015 (-28, -0.95) and 2016 (-56, -.89) Even so called "plus defensive backups" like AJ Ellis, Drew Butera, Dionner Navarro, Christian Bethancourt, and Wil Nieves performed significantly worse than Swihart, a guy who had 49 games of AAA experience catching. I don't see any people clamoring for JT Realmuto, or Perez to go back to the minors in order to catch more AAA games. And lastly, I've always been supportive of Vazquez... but as a backup. Even after his TJ surgery, I believe that he's legitimately a 70-75 overall defender behind the plate. He's that good. For reference, his statcorner numbers were +92, 1.80 in 2014 and +27, 0.46 in 2016. The problem is he can't hit and he never will. Vazquez's hitting profile: 30 power, 30 speed, 55+% GB rate, average to below average BB rate, and average to below average K rate has produced a grand total of zero MLB starters. I love his defense, but his hitting profile means that his value to the Sox is maximized a personal catcher for the 2/5th of the rotation that is especially vulnerable.
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Post by scotian1 on Oct 12, 2016 16:19:24 GMT -5
I wish Swihart was healthy enough either to play in the AL or Winter ball. I really think he needed to work on his defence. I believe we have seen the best of Leon and we are more like to see more end of season Leon than not. I don't know if he will be nearly ready but before the season is over hoping we see a Swihart-Vasquez pairing.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Oct 13, 2016 7:36:57 GMT -5
He's the only catcher with options. There's no way you trade Leon or Vazquez in order to make room for him, when he barely caught last year. He starts the season in AAA, where he can be expected to create a logjam or a very sweet trade situation by the trading deadline. End of thread. Sure he has an option. He's also significantly better than both Leon and Vazquez. You don't banish a top 15 prospect, who succeeded in the majors when he was called up about a year too early, to AAA in order to keep 2 backup catchers. That's bad roster management.I don't know how people can justify sending Swihart to AAA when he's very clearly the better player. Vazquez has started more games behind the plate and had more PAs compared to Swihart (99 to 84 for starts, 385 to 383 for PAs), and yet Swihart has been more than 3 times as valuable as Vazquez in his career. It isn't like the difference between the two is negligible. It's not even close. Actually it's bad roster management to eliminate your C depth for a guy who may not be ready to start the year in the bigs. It's obviously a decision that won't be made until the end of Spring Training, and it will take Swihart proving he is healthy, ready, and far and away better than Leon to justify DFA'ing him (and most likely losing him after his 2016 numbers). If you DFA Leon you have no more catchers on the 40 man, and Pawtucket will most likely be Romanski(a possible 40 man addition this offseason) and one/two of Butler, Solis or another JAG minor league free agent. You have to bring Leon back to see if he can put up anything close to his 2016 stats (honestly I doubt it but who honestly saw him hitting over .250 this year?). Then you decide to trade one of them when Swihart is ready. Good roster management is weighing keeping as many assets as possible without hurting the performance of the team. And while I agree that Swihart has the highest long term value, right now there's no way you can guarantee that Swihart would be better starting day one over Leon given he's returning from injury, and has had such a long break from playing every day. And that's not even bringing up the rumors that pitchers didn't like throwing to Swihart last year.
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Post by dmaineah on Oct 14, 2016 11:40:13 GMT -5
He should be given an opportunity to play 3B
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 14, 2016 13:34:21 GMT -5
He should be given an opportunity to play 3B Didn't he play 3B before he was drafted? I know the org. directed that he be limited to C during his training. He is clearly athletic enough to adapt elsewhere other than catcher.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 14, 2016 19:25:46 GMT -5
fWAR for catchers excludes fielding entirely (because UZR doesn't bother trying to measure it). The "Defense" value for catchers is just their positional adjustment based on PT (go to Swihart's page to verify this). And of course fielding is far and away the biggest contributor to a catcher's value. DRS had him at -16 runs defensively in 2014. He was also -6 runs in pitch framing. Those figures are for his actual PT (76 games worth of innings), not per 120. That's why he was below replacement level.
Of course he's a plus bat for a catcher. That's what makes him a great prospect. He still needs to hone his catching -- a great deal. A couple things to sort out over your last couple of comments. First off, Fangraphs does take into account catcher defense, and it actually very thorough. www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/catcher-defense/Secondly, I'm not sure where you got the bWAR framing runs, but in general for framing, I use statcorner www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.phpBased on 2015 stats, Swihart was a -13 in terms of strikes added, or -0.17/game. In 2015, Swihart was significantly better than many veteran catchers and most definitely proved that he belonged in the majors, not AAA. Based on 2015 numbers, Swihart (-13, -0.17/game) was a better defensive catcher than many good starting catchers... Brian McCann (-18, -0.17) Steven Vogt (-28, -0.32) Yan Gomes (-26, -0.34) Salvador Perez (-68, -0.53) AJ Pierzinski (-73, -0.75) JT Realmuto (-110, -1.01) Matt Weiters (-65, -1.25) Carlos Ruiz (-118, -1.47) Sandy Leon, in both 2015 (-28, -0.95) and 2016 (-56, -.89) Even so called "plus defensive backups" like AJ Ellis, Drew Butera, Dionner Navarro, Christian Bethancourt, and Wil Nieves performed significantly worse than Swihart, a guy who had 49 games of AAA experience catching. I don't see any people clamoring for JT Realmuto, or Perez to go back to the minors in order to catch more AAA games. And lastly, I've always been supportive of Vazquez... but as a backup. Even after his TJ surgery, I believe that he's legitimately a 70-75 overall defender behind the plate. He's that good. For reference, his statcorner numbers were +92, 1.80 in 2014 and +27, 0.46 in 2016. The problem is he can't hit and he never will. Vazquez's hitting profile: 30 power, 30 speed, 55+% GB rate, average to below average BB rate, and average to below average K rate has produced a grand total of zero MLB starters. I love his defense, but his hitting profile means that his value to the Sox is maximized a personal catcher for the 2/5th of the rotation that is especially vulnerable. You're right about FG doing some catcher defense, but you're wrong about it being thorough. They stopped measuring pitch-blocking two years ago, so all they do is grab rSB (stolen base runs) from DRS. My remembering that they barely did it plus Swihart happening to be 0.0 in rSB caused my confusion. Why they don't take all of DRS I don't know. But DRS had Swihart as awful in "good (or bad) fielding plays", which is basically everything but SB. And subpar in pitch calling. I use BP for pitch-framing. In 2015 Swihart was 46th out of 69 catchers with a minimum of 1000 framing chances. Citing a few people who were even worse doesn't make him good. Your assertion about CV's hitting has less than zero basis in reality. I'll run that down in detail after I watch a playoff game.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 16, 2016 11:39:25 GMT -5
And lastly, I've always been supportive of Vazquez... but as a backup. ... The problem is he can't hit and he never will. Vazquez's hitting profile: 30 power, 30 speed, 55+% GB rate, average to below average BB rate, and average to below average K rate has produced a grand total of zero MLB starters. I love his defense, but his hitting profile means that his value to the Sox is maximized a personal catcher for the 2/5th of the rotation that is especially vulnerable. Last scouting report on Vazquez, by Jim Callis from the BA 2014 Prospect Handbook: "At the plate, he cut his strikeout rate nearly in half while hitting .289 / .376 / .395 at Portland, finishing eighth in the EL Batting race. Evaluators feel that, despite Vazquez's five homers, he possesses sneaky pop that could permit double-digit home run totals with an ability to swing at strikes and get on base at a respectable rate." That's not a 30 bat. His numbers. These are Davenport Peak Translations, which is to say, what you'd expect from his hitting line at his peak in MLB. They're the best age- and level-adjusted numbers anyone has ever come up with. The average MLB catcher is .252, which means the average starter is about .258, and the minimum for a starter is about .237. .241 (65 PA, R) .251 (117 PA, A- / R) .238 (299 PA, A) .271 (444 PA, A) .248 (424 PA, A+ / AA) .265 (403 PA, AA) .248 (471 PA, AAA / MLB) --- .232 (355 PA, AAA / MLB) The first time CV repeated a level, he hit .283 / .358 / .505 as a 20 y/o catcher in low-A. That's actually remarkably good, as the translation indicates. The next two years he repeated the pattern of hitting (given his age and the level) somewhat below average but by no means terrible for a starting catcher his first year at a level, and better than average his second. That's when Callis wrote the above. The next year he was rushed to MLB with only 270 PA in AAA, yet still projected to be just somewhat below average as a starter. This year, after a year layoff, he didn't hit at all for his first 270 PA, then hit .333 / .391 / .460 in his last 17 G / 69 PA at Pawtucket. If you think the repeat-a-level thing is random (and it might be), he projects to be an average hitting MLB starting catcher -- which of course is a pretty low bar, but makes him an easy first-division starter given his defense. If that's at all for real, he can be above average, and among the best catchers in MLB.
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Post by p23w on Oct 16, 2016 13:02:50 GMT -5
I wish Swihart was healthy enough either to play in the AL or Winter ball. I really think he needed to work on his defence. I believe we have seen the best of Leon and we are more like to see more end of season Leon than not. I don't know if he will be nearly ready but before the season is over hoping we see a Swihart-Vasquez pairing. This. After the Kalish fiasco, I want to see a healthy Swihart before I assign him a spot on the Red Sox roster.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 17, 2016 1:24:38 GMT -5
A couple things to sort out over your last couple of comments. First off, Fangraphs does take into account catcher defense, and it actually very thorough. www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/catcher-defense/Secondly, I'm not sure where you got the bWAR framing runs, but in general for framing, I use statcorner www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.phpBased on 2015 stats, Swihart was a -13 in terms of strikes added, or -0.17/game. In 2015, Swihart was significantly better than many veteran catchers and most definitely proved that he belonged in the majors, not AAA. Based on 2015 numbers, Swihart (-13, -0.17/game) was a better defensive catcher than many good starting catchers... Brian McCann (-18, -0.17) Steven Vogt (-28, -0.32) Yan Gomes (-26, -0.34) Salvador Perez (-68, -0.53) AJ Pierzinski (-73, -0.75) JT Realmuto (-110, -1.01) Matt Weiters (-65, -1.25) Carlos Ruiz (-118, -1.47) Sandy Leon, in both 2015 (-28, -0.95) and 2016 (-56, -.89) Even so called "plus defensive backups" like AJ Ellis, Drew Butera, Dionner Navarro, Christian Bethancourt, and Wil Nieves performed significantly worse than Swihart, a guy who had 49 games of AAA experience catching. I don't see any people clamoring for JT Realmuto, or Perez to go back to the minors in order to catch more AAA games. And lastly, I've always been supportive of Vazquez... but as a backup. Even after his TJ surgery, I believe that he's legitimately a 70-75 overall defender behind the plate. He's that good. For reference, his statcorner numbers were +92, 1.80 in 2014 and +27, 0.46 in 2016. The problem is he can't hit and he never will. Vazquez's hitting profile: 30 power, 30 speed, 55+% GB rate, average to below average BB rate, and average to below average K rate has produced a grand total of zero MLB starters. I love his defense, but his hitting profile means that his value to the Sox is maximized a personal catcher for the 2/5th of the rotation that is especially vulnerable. You're right about FG doing some catcher defense, but you're wrong about it being thorough. They stopped measuring pitch-blocking two years ago, so all they do is grab rSB (stolen base runs) from DRS. My remembering that they barely did it plus Swihart happening to be 0.0 in rSB caused my confusion. Why they don't take all of DRS I don't know. But DRS had Swihart as awful in "good (or bad) fielding plays", which is basically everything but SB. And subpar in pitch calling. I use BP for pitch-framing. In 2015 Swihart was 46th out of 69 catchers with a minimum of 1000 framing chances. Citing a few people who were even worse doesn't make him good. Your assertion about CV's hitting has less than zero basis in reality. I'll run that down in detail after I watch a playoff game. So you don't think Swihart can improve behind the plate? This is a guy that hardly played catcher in high school and was rushed to big leagues before he was ready due to injuries. All i know is that Varitek was very high on him and that means a lot more than anything you say. We all know that catching takes more time than any other position. I also think judging a player based on pitch framing is the worst thing you can do. This year clearly showed that Vazquez pitch framing is highly overrated. Not saying he's not good at it, just the effect it has on the outcome of the game is way smaller than you think.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 17, 2016 2:18:33 GMT -5
You're right about FG doing some catcher defense, but you're wrong about it being thorough. They stopped measuring pitch-blocking two years ago, so all they do is grab rSB (stolen base runs) from DRS. My remembering that they barely did it plus Swihart happening to be 0.0 in rSB caused my confusion. Why they don't take all of DRS I don't know. But DRS had Swihart as awful in "good (or bad) fielding plays", which is basically everything but SB. And subpar in pitch calling. I use BP for pitch-framing. In 2015 Swihart was 46th out of 69 catchers with a minimum of 1000 framing chances. Citing a few people who were even worse doesn't make him good. Your assertion about CV's hitting has less than zero basis in reality. I'll run that down in detail after I watch a playoff game. So you don't think Swihart can improve behind the plate? This is a guy that hardly played catcher in high school and was rushed to big leagues before he was ready due to injuries. All i know is that Varitek was very high on him and that means a lot more than anything you say. We all know that catching takes more time than any other position. I also think judging a player based on pitch framing is the worst thing you can do. This year clearly showed that Vazquez pitch framing is highly overrated. Not saying he's not good at it, just the effect it has on the outcome of the game is way smaller than you think. Everything we know about Swihart says that he should be a good defender in a reasonably short period of time, and probably a very good one. He needs about a year to get to the point where he's an asset back there. At that point we'll have a much better idea about how good CV and Leon are. In mid-February I projected that Vazquez would be worth 2.1 framing wins per 125 games, based on the 2015 rate of 8.9 runs per win, which is to say, +18.7 runs. He ended up saving 17.2 runs per 125 (1.8 wins at this year's rate of 9.6 runs per win), which ranked 11th among 69 MLB catchers. That's measured quite precisely; it's not a matter of what you or I "think." This is a skill that stabilizes in small sample sizes and is very predictable. To my mind, the biggest uncertainty with CV is how far he'll return to being an absolutely elite thrower, versus the merely solid guy we saw this year. The framing you can count on, and I have a lot of confidence that he'll be an average hitting starting catcher, and maybe better. Meanwhile, for all the raves Leon gets as a defender, he has never been above average in framing. To me, he has the profile of a super backup in the Todd Pratt / Kelly Shoppach vein. A final set of fun facts: Of the 42 games started by catchers this post-season so far, 36 were by above-average framers in 2016 (10 of the top 19 framing catchers in MLB played for post-season teams, which tells you how much well-run organizations value the skill). Teams starting a below-average framer went 0-6 (Leon 0-3, Severino 0-2, Wieters 0-1), and there are no below-average framing catchers left. So far, the team starting the better-framing catcher has gone 15-6.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 17, 2016 3:26:39 GMT -5
So you don't think Swihart can improve behind the plate? This is a guy that hardly played catcher in high school and was rushed to big leagues before he was ready due to injuries. All i know is that Varitek was very high on him and that means a lot more than anything you say. We all know that catching takes more time than any other position. I also think judging a player based on pitch framing is the worst thing you can do. This year clearly showed that Vazquez pitch framing is highly overrated. Not saying he's not good at it, just the effect it has on the outcome of the game is way smaller than you think. Everything we know about Swihart says that he should be a good defender in a reasonably short period of time, and probably a very good one. He needs about a year to get to the point where he's an asset back there. At that point we'll have a much better idea about how good CV and Leon are. In mid-February I projected that Vazquez would be worth 2.1 framing wins per 125 games, based on the 2015 rate of 8.9 runs per win, which is to say, +18.7 runs. He ended up saving 17.2 runs per 125 (1.8 wins at this year's rate of 9.6 runs per win), which ranked 11th among 69 MLB catchers. That's measured quite precisely; it's not a matter of what you or I "think." This is a skill that stabilizes in small sample sizes and is very predictable. To my mind, the biggest uncertainty with CV is how far he'll return to being an absolutely elite thrower, versus the merely solid guy we saw this year. The framing you can count on, and I have a lot of confidence that he'll be an average hitting starting catcher, and maybe better. Meanwhile, for all the raves Leon gets as a defender, he has never been above average in framing. To me, he has the profile of a super backup in the Todd Pratt / Kelly Shoppach vein. A final set of fun facts: Of the 42 games started by catchers this post-season so far, 36 were by above-average framers in 2016 (10 of the top 19 framing catchers in MLB played for post-season teams, which tells you how much well-run organizations value the skill). Teams starting a below-average framer went 0-6 (Leon 0-3, Severino 0-2, Wieters 0-1), and there are no below-average framing catchers left. So far, the team starting the better-framing catcher has gone 15-6. By your numbers Vazquez was 11th best in league with pitch framing and saved .14 runs a game rounded up. So you think that explains teams going 15-6 when having the better framing catcher? Over the course of a 7 games series that's not even a run and not even close to a win. 10 out of 19 of the top pitch framers played for post seasons teams and you think that means something? That means 9 out of 19 of the top pitch framers didn't make the postseason, that's more telling to me! If you said out of 10 playoff teams 8 or 9 of the top pitch framers were in the postseason that would really help your case, not 10 out of the top 19. Lets not forget number 11 didn't even play for the Red Sox. I know you feel strongly about this, but by your numbers, the 11th best pitch framer wouldn't save a single run in a 7 game playoff series, never mind a 5 games series, so how much of an effect could he really have? Teams going 15-6 with better pitch framers is because of some other reason, most likely better overall pitching. Good pitching can help increase a catchers pitch framing, by having more balls closer to zone, thus giving them more chances to get strikes that weren't really a strike.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 21, 2016 10:50:39 GMT -5
I can't think of another player in the last five years that this organization has screwed up more. This guy should've never been moved from behind the plate. What he needs is to catch, receive purposeful feedback on his skills and performance after every game, continued reinforcement and training on improving those skills and then repeat, repeat, repeat.
Just awful what they've done here and how they've abused his career. The way they've handled his career path is even worse of an organizational screw-up than deciding to make Bard a starter after every bit of data he'd generated up to that point showed he would have zero success in that role.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 22, 2016 1:11:46 GMT -5
I can't think of another player in the last five years that this organization has screwed up more. This guy should've never been moved from behind the plate. What he needs is to catch, receive purposeful feedback on his skills and performance after every game, continued reinforcement and training on improving those skills and then repeat, repeat, repeat. Just awful what they've done here and how they've abused his career. The way they've handled his career path is even worse of an organizational screw-up than deciding to make Bard a starter after every bit of data he'd generated up to that point showed he would have zero success in that role. There was no such data whatsoever; in fact, the data said that he could have great success as a starter if he continued to pitch to his 2011 average numbers. And he was immensely better in his first month as a starter (and quite good) than in his last month as a reliever. Which, alas, turned out not be mere fatigue or fixable flawed mechanics. What the data does showm, in retrospect, is a guy with thoracic outlet syndrome, who was losing velocity and movement steadily on his FB. He recovered some in the off-season before 2012, but the decline accelerated dramatically in 2012.
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ericmvan
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Posts: 8,936
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 22, 2016 1:17:29 GMT -5
Everything we know about Swihart says that he should be a good defender in a reasonably short period of time, and probably a very good one. He needs about a year to get to the point where he's an asset back there. At that point we'll have a much better idea about how good CV and Leon are. In mid-February I projected that Vazquez would be worth 2.1 framing wins per 125 games, based on the 2015 rate of 8.9 runs per win, which is to say, +18.7 runs. He ended up saving 17.2 runs per 125 (1.8 wins at this year's rate of 9.6 runs per win), which ranked 11th among 69 MLB catchers. That's measured quite precisely; it's not a matter of what you or I "think." This is a skill that stabilizes in small sample sizes and is very predictable. To my mind, the biggest uncertainty with CV is how far he'll return to being an absolutely elite thrower, versus the merely solid guy we saw this year. The framing you can count on, and I have a lot of confidence that he'll be an average hitting starting catcher, and maybe better. Meanwhile, for all the raves Leon gets as a defender, he has never been above average in framing. To me, he has the profile of a super backup in the Todd Pratt / Kelly Shoppach vein. A final set of fun facts: Of the 42 games started by catchers this post-season so far, 36 were by above-average framers in 2016 (10 of the top 19 framing catchers in MLB played for post-season teams, which tells you how much well-run organizations value the skill). Teams starting a below-average framer went 0-6 (Leon 0-3, Severino 0-2, Wieters 0-1), and there are no below-average framing catchers left. So far, the team starting the better-framing catcher has gone 15-6. By your numbers Vazquez was 11th best in league with pitch framing and saved .14 runs a game rounded up. So you think that explains teams going 15-6 when having the better framing catcher? Over the course of a 7 games series that's not even a run and not even close to a win. 10 out of 19 of the top pitch framers played for post seasons teams and you think that means something? That means 9 out of 19 of the top pitch framers didn't make the postseason, that's more telling to me! If you said out of 10 playoff teams 8 or 9 of the top pitch framers were in the postseason that would really help your case, not 10 out of the top 19. Lets not forget number 11 didn't even play for the Red Sox. I know you feel strongly about this, but by your numbers, the 11th best pitch framer wouldn't save a single run in a 7 game playoff series, never mind a 5 games series, so how much of an effect could he really have? Teams going 15-6 with better pitch framers is because of some other reason, most likely better overall pitching. Good pitching can help increase a catchers pitch framing, by having more balls closer to zone, thus giving them more chances to get strikes that weren't really a strike. A "fun fact" is not meant to be about a causal relationship. It's just amusing the way it's played out. That well-run teams almost always have plus pitch-framers is very clear. That's the only actual claim being made here. And you'd expect 6.3 of the top 19 pitch-framers to be on post-season teams if it were random, so 10 of 19 is 57% more than you'd expect. So, yes, that's telling. To claim that it's telling that it's not even higher is a strawman argument.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 24, 2016 15:51:40 GMT -5
I can't think of another player in the last five years that this organization has screwed up more. This guy should've never been moved from behind the plate. What he needs is to catch, receive purposeful feedback on his skills and performance after every game, continued reinforcement and training on improving those skills and then repeat, repeat, repeat. Just awful what they've done here and how they've abused his career. The way they've handled his career path is even worse of an organizational screw-up than deciding to make Bard a starter after every bit of data he'd generated up to that point showed he would have zero success in that role. There was no such data whatsoever; in fact, the data said that he could have great success as a starter if he continued to pitch to his 2011 average numbers. And he was immensely better in his first month as a starter (and quite good) than in his last month as a reliever. Which, alas, turned out not be mere fatigue or fixable flawed mechanics. What the data does showm, in retrospect, is a guy with thoracic outlet syndrome, who was losing velocity and movement steadily on his FB. He recovered some in the off-season before 2012, but the decline accelerated dramatically in 2012. The data I was referring to was his inability to maintain command and control for multiple innings in the minors. The thoracic outlet syndrome was ultimately his undoing but he had found his niche as a reliever and was special in that role. But if you're saying here that the Sox have screw-up Swihart's development more than any other player in their system in the last 15 years, sure, I'll agree with that.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 24, 2016 18:22:43 GMT -5
There was no such data whatsoever; in fact, the data said that he could have great success as a starter if he continued to pitch to his 2011 average numbers. And he was immensely better in his first month as a starter (and quite good) than in his last month as a reliever. Which, alas, turned out not be mere fatigue or fixable flawed mechanics. What the data does showm, in retrospect, is a guy with thoracic outlet syndrome, who was losing velocity and movement steadily on his FB. He recovered some in the off-season before 2012, but the decline accelerated dramatically in 2012. The data I was referring to was his inability to maintain command and control for multiple innings in the minors. The thoracic outlet syndrome was ultimately his undoing but he had found his niche as a reliever and was special in that role. But if you're saying here that the Sox have screw-up Swihart's development more than any other player in their system in the last 15 years, sure, I'll agree with that.How can you possibly know how bad his development is screwed up if it is at all before he's done developing?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 24, 2016 21:00:46 GMT -5
The data I was referring to was his inability to maintain command and control for multiple innings in the minors. The thoracic outlet syndrome was ultimately his undoing but he had found his niche as a reliever and was special in that role. But if you're saying here that the Sox have screw-up Swihart's development more than any other player in their system in the last 15 years, sure, I'll agree with that.How can you possibly know how bad his development is screwed up if it is at all before he's done developing? Come on he lost almost a year of development by learning how to play LF and then getting injured playing it. How can you argue that didn't have a negative effect on his development? BTW still think Bradley is the guy they messed up the most, with Swihart a close second. Another year of having Swihart play anything other than catcher would move Swihart to number one for me.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 25, 2016 8:32:17 GMT -5
The data I was referring to was his inability to maintain command and control for multiple innings in the minors. The thoracic outlet syndrome was ultimately his undoing but he had found his niche as a reliever and was special in that role. But if you're saying here that the Sox have screw-up Swihart's development more than any other player in their system in the last 15 years, sure, I'll agree with that.How can you possibly know how bad his development is screwed up if it is at all before he's done developing? His value is at catcher. They tried to convert him to LF when the bat really doesn't profile there (or at first). He lost a year of defensive work between that and blowing up the ankle. Not only did they stall his development they greatly diminished his current trade value.
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