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Sale to BOS for Moncada, Kopech, Basabe, Diaz
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 15, 2016 18:05:14 GMT -5
Not to start this debate again, but the Red Sox refused to trade Devers as the third man in a trade already featuring Moncada and Kopech. They did not refuse to trade him outright. Those are two very different things. The fact that the White Sox asked for Devers after they'd already started to build the trade around Moncada kind of shows the understanding that Moncada was more highly thought of by both clubs. You don't ask for a third piece that's better than the other two you already agreed to. Well that's what the first report said, White Sox wanted Devers as third player. Now Gammons report says otherwise. He says White Sox wanted Benintendi and Devers as there first choice and Red Sox wouldn't trade either. Maybe he's twisting words, but the way he writes it sure makes it sound like Red Sox wouldn't trade those two guys. That's the thing about these reports we get little bits of information and we have to try and piece it together. In time I'm sure we'll actually understand what truly went down. Right now it's not entirely clear if Red Sox just wouldn't trade Devers at all or if they wouldn't trade him along with Moncada. It's also not clear if White Sox valued Moncada more than Devers. If they did, why wouldn't there first request be Benintendi and Moncada? Then work down from there. One report makes sense. The other doesn't make as much sense and is from a source known to fumble wording these days. I'm inclined to think the former is correct. Playing devil's advocate a bit, we know DD loves to deal from depth and move guys who are blocked (each significant position player he's moved lacked a clear path onto the MLB roster). If you consider Moncada a second baseman, he was indeed blocked, whereas Devers as the heir apparent at third makes tons of sense. So maybe he was refusing to move Devers in the same way he refused to move Swihart and Benintendi because there's a plan for them, whereas there wasn't one for Moncada.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 15, 2016 18:51:10 GMT -5
Well that's what the first report said, White Sox wanted Devers as third player. Now Gammons report says otherwise. He says White Sox wanted Benintendi and Devers as there first choice and Red Sox wouldn't trade either. Maybe he's twisting words, but the way he writes it sure makes it sound like Red Sox wouldn't trade those two guys. That's the thing about these reports we get little bits of information and we have to try and piece it together. In time I'm sure we'll actually understand what truly went down. Right now it's not entirely clear if Red Sox just wouldn't trade Devers at all or if they wouldn't trade him along with Moncada. It's also not clear if White Sox valued Moncada more than Devers. If they did, why wouldn't there first request be Benintendi and Moncada? Then work down from there. One report makes sense. The other doesn't make as much sense and is from a source known to fumble wording these days. I'm inclined to think the former is correct. Playing devil's advocate a bit, we know DD loves to deal from depth and move guys who are blocked (each significant position player he's moved lacked a clear path onto the MLB roster). If you consider Moncada a second baseman, he was indeed blocked, whereas Devers as the heir apparent at third makes tons of sense. So maybe he was refusing to move Devers in the same way he refused to move Swihart and Benintendi because there's a plan for them, whereas there wasn't one for Moncada. Actually both could be correct if you interpret Gammons piece as refering the very original asking price. If you remember when they first talked, DD told Hahn to get back to him when the asking price came down to their not looking for major league pieces (Benintendi).
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 15, 2016 19:08:59 GMT -5
Sequence as I interpret:
WS asked for a package based around Benintendi and Devers. (Gammons) DD told them to get back to them when they weren't looking for major league pieces. (Speier) Time elapsed..... WS asked for a package based on Moncada and Kopech. DD said that was worth exploring WS asked for Devers to be added as the third piece. DD told them he wouldn't be OK with that. WS asked for Basabe and Diaz instead of Devers Done deal
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 15, 2016 21:10:50 GMT -5
Sequence as I interpret: WS asked for a package based around Benintendi and Devers. (Gammons) DD told them to get back to them when they weren't looking for major league pieces. (Speier) Time elapsed..... WS asked for a package based on Moncada and Kopech. DD said that was worth exploring WS asked for Devers to be added as the third piece. DD told them he wouldn't be OK with that. WS asked for Basabe and Diaz instead of Devers Done deal That's now I interpreted it as well. I think Devers is a fantastic prospect but Moncada > Devers, not the other way around.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 15, 2016 21:25:10 GMT -5
Sequence as I interpret: WS asked for a package based around Benintendi and Devers. (Gammons) DD told them to get back to them when they weren't looking for major league pieces. (Speier) Time elapsed..... WS asked for a package based on Moncada and Kopech. DD said that was worth exploring WS asked for Devers to be added as the third piece. DD told them he wouldn't be OK with that. WS asked for Basabe and Diaz instead of Devers Done deal That's now I interpreted it as well. I think Devers is a fantastic prospect but Moncada > Devers, not the other way around. And the switch from Benintendi and Devers to Moncada and Kopech makes sense from the WS point of view because Moncada and Devers would have been 2 infielders. The original decline makes sense from the Sox point of view not so much because of player evaluation standpoint but from the standpoint that Benintendi is a major part of their 2017 plans. I'm also pretty sure DD knew the WS would have difficulty extracting major league talent from the teams they were dealing with because those teams are going for it as well. I think that knowledge allowed him to hold out players like JBJ and Swihart as well. He was pretty specific, he told Hahn when they were ready to talk about just prospects. If you think about it, from the Sox point of view, the addition of Sale brought Kopech down a notch in the feed chain and the trading of Moncada brought Devers up a notch in that chain.
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Post by iakovos11 on Dec 15, 2016 21:58:07 GMT -5
I bet Devers has a better career. If I had to pick one, I'd keep Devers.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 15, 2016 21:59:46 GMT -5
I bet Devers has a better career. If I had to pick one, I'd keep Devers. I think so as well but a year later, hence, I would still rank Moncada higher.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 15, 2016 22:28:22 GMT -5
If you think Devers will have a better career you have to have him rated higher.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 16, 2016 0:17:10 GMT -5
If you think Devers will have a better career you have to have him rated higher. Proximity to majors is a factor as is a track record at higher levels. If there was a huge difference in what I expect, yes, but I think both will have excellent careers with Devers being the better hitter, ultimate defense close and Moncada the faster runner. Just my opinion but I'd have Moncada with the higher current ranking. As the trade went down, I'd have preferred Devers go to Moncada but a year from now I'd likely change that preference. I value WAR timing different than most, I discount for future WAR. (In my logic, no formula). I'm a believer that WAR two years from now can be generated next off-season.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 16, 2016 4:47:04 GMT -5
2010 Draft class...
Harper 22.9 career fWAR Sale 27.9 career fWAR
yeah I know, just sayin'
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Post by iakovos11 on Dec 16, 2016 9:16:40 GMT -5
I think Moncada will be slow to develop. I'd have rather traded Moncada than Devers. Even if Moncada is a little bit useful the next year and half (and I'm not even sure about that), I don't think that helps the Red Sox and I think overall Devers will be better.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 16, 2016 12:24:51 GMT -5
From BA on the WS new Top 10 Now, Chicago has a farm system that will have anywhere from five to seven Top 100 prospects, led by Yoan Moncada, a candidate to be No. 1 on the list. Moncada’s trade to Chicago also allows him to move back to second base, his most comfortable position. His plus arm fits at third as well, but Moncada moved to third last year because he was blocked by Dustin Pedroia in Boston.
New trade acquisitions fill the top three spots on the White Sox’s updated Top 10 and six of the Top 10 spots overall.
The White Sox Top 10 now lines up as:
1. Yoan Moncada, 2b/3b 2. Lucas Giolito, rhp 3. Reynaldo Lopez, rhp 4. Zack Collins, c 5. Michael Kopech, rhp 6. Zack Burdi, rhp 7. Luis Alexander Basabe, of 8. Carson Fulmer, rhp 9. Spencer Adams, rhp 10. Dane Dunning, rhp Read more at www.baseballamerica.com/viewpoint/revised-white-sox-top-10-look-like/#jHyiRAo2XfTRcHgr.99
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 16, 2016 12:28:27 GMT -5
Basabe ahead of Fulmer is aggressive (though not necessarily wrong).
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 16, 2016 13:38:14 GMT -5
Basabe ahead of Fulmer is aggressive (though not necessarily wrong). When I saw it, my reaction was that Fulmer must be significantly falling for some reason. They say 5-7 top 100 which leaves Fulmer out.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 16, 2016 14:10:02 GMT -5
I am new to the forum. However I thought that I should share my insights on Moncada, Kopech, and Dubon. I saw all three at close range several times in the AZ Fall League. Kopech was the most impressive by far. He had outstanding velocity - 95 to 97 on the radar gun. He seemed to have a good slider that generated repeated swings and misses. And, interestingly enough, he had reasonably good command. I also liked his mound presence. He seemed confident and in control. He is a tall and imposing figure on the mound. He was definitely the best pitcher I saw in the Fall League. In my mind if he can develop his change up, he will be a #1 or #2 starter. If he remains injury free and keeps his head on straight we may rue the day that we traded him. Moncada was a real disappointment to me. I saw him three times and then he got injured. He got a few hits on fastballs. However what bothered me the most is that he appeared to be disinterested in the field. He is indeed a physical specimen for his age. He is a patient hitter - as little too patient for my liking. And he definitely has trouble hitting off-speed pitches. He always seemed off balance. And he didn't look good at third base - a couple of balls went right through his legs. To be honest I don't see him as the #1 prospect in baseball. I think that his hit tool has a long way to go before he is ready for the major leagues. And, again, I didn't like the fact that his head didn't seem to be in the game. Dubon is a skinny guy who didn't have a good stint in the Fall League. I saw him play CF and 2nd base, and let's just say he was adequate in the field. He didn't impress with his bat at all. He seemed to have trouble making consistent contact. He could be an average utilty player in the making. So my opinion on the Sale trade - it doesn't bother me that they traded Moncada. I am disappointed that they traded Kopech. He has a chance to be truly outstanding, and you don't need to be a scout to see that. And as for Dubon, no real loss. He is a nice third or fourth piece in a trade for for a substantial player. First, welcome to the Forum. I agree with your assessments. I saw these guys come through the Sally/Carolina Leagues. IMO Moncada has the #1 MLB prospect tag due to the high profile signing out of Cuba. He's got some Bo Gentry in him regarding the offspeed stuff. Kopech has that "edge" to him that you want in a SP. That loss will sting. His floor should be a #3. IMO Moncada's floor could be AAAA. The guy is no longer a kid. He's 21. He should have figured out how to hit a CB by now.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 16, 2016 18:05:30 GMT -5
From BA on the WS new Top 10 Now, Chicago has a farm system that will have anywhere from five to seven Top 100 prospects, led by Yoan Moncada, a candidate to be No. 1 on the list. Moncada’s trade to Chicago also allows him to move back to second base, his most comfortable position. His plus arm fits at third as well, but Moncada moved to third last year because he was blocked by Dustin Pedroia in Boston.
New trade acquisitions fill the top three spots on the White Sox’s updated Top 10 and six of the Top 10 spots overall.
The White Sox Top 10 now lines up as:
1. Yoan Moncada, 2b/3b 2. Lucas Giolito, rhp 3. Reynaldo Lopez, rhp 4. Zack Collins, c 5. Michael Kopech, rhp 6. Zack Burdi, rhp 7. Luis Alexander Basabe, of 8. Carson Fulmer, rhp 9. Spencer Adams, rhp 10. Dane Dunning, rhp Read more at www.baseballamerica.com/viewpoint/revised-white-sox-top-10-look-like/#jHyiRAo2XfTRcHgr.99I'm surprised Kopech is behind Collins.
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Dec 17, 2016 9:36:45 GMT -5
Welcome to the forum Cagy.
Just to chime in after sifting through 26 pages (dear God I love hot stove baseball), I LOVE this trade. Overall, when you have a chance to trade prospects for young, elite talent, specifically pitches, I think you have to do it. Sale isn't Pedro (we're never going to see that in Boston again, so we should stop comparing people to him, that's like comparing every artist to Michelangelo; every scientist to Einstein or every woman to Helen of Troy). However, I think he's better than Beckett.
As a whole, I don't like the depletion of the farm system from some of the other moves. Specifically any deals with San Diego I would rather just have a do-over; but acquiring Chirs Sale is something that I think we needed to do.
One quick thing that I don't think I've seen mentioned in here. A lot of people have questioned the wisdom of moving Moncada and Kopech based on what happens in 2020 when a lot of our young talent is either up or in their last year. Wouldn't it have also been equally negligent to "waste" the years we do have cost controlled versions of Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, Benintendi, Swihart and others with a pitching staff that is really only two deep with a lot of question marks?
Personally, I expect a "Porcello 2016" season from Price next year, and a "Price 2016 season" from Porcello next (though more like a 3.75ERA there). After that, it gets dicey: For Clay Buchholz, we've seen this movie before (in 2011, 2013, and 2015), we're going to get about 15 great starts from him, then he's going to go on the DL. I like Wright as a back end starter for sure, but we know that he has issues in bad weather games, which don't portend well for late in the year. Rodriguez has a TON of talent, but hasn't put togheter a full season yet. Pomeranz I think will never been anything other than "average at best" in the AL East.
This isn't to say that I don't like Wright, Rodriguez or even the 15 good starts we'll get from Clay, but we're talking about Chris Freaking Sale here. He has been a top 5 pitcher in the AL for several years. Acquring him is a great move.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 17, 2016 15:47:36 GMT -5
Welcome to the forum Cagy. Just to chime in after sifting through 26 pages (dear God I love hot stove baseball), I LOVE this trade. Overall, when you have a chance to trade prospects for young, elite talent, specifically pitches, I think you have to do it. Sale isn't Pedro (we're never going to see that in Boston again, so we should stop comparing people to him, that's like comparing every artist to Michelangelo; every scientist to Einstein or every woman to Helen of Troy). However, I think he's better than Beckett. As a whole, I don't like the depletion of the farm system from some of the other moves. Specifically any deals with San Diego I would rather just have a do-over; but acquiring Chirs Sale is something that I think we needed to do. One quick thing that I don't think I've seen mentioned in here. A lot of people have questioned the wisdom of moving Moncada and Kopech based on what happens in 2020 when a lot of our young talent is either up or in their last year. Wouldn't it have also been equally negligent to "waste" the years we do have cost controlled versions of Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, Benintendi, Swihart and others with a pitching staff that is really only two deep with a lot of question marks? Personally, I expect a "Porcello 2016" season from Price next year, and a "Price 2016 season" from Porcello next (though more like a 3.75ERA there). After that, it gets dicey: For Clay Buchholz, we've seen this movie before (in 2011, 2013, and 2015), we're going to get about 15 great starts from him, then he's going to go on the DL. I like Wright as a back end starter for sure, but we know that he has issues in bad weather games, which don't portend well for late in the year. Rodriguez has a TON of talent, but hasn't put togheter a full season yet. Pomeranz I think will never been anything other than "average at best" in the AL East. This isn't to say that I don't like Wright, Rodriguez or even the 15 good starts we'll get from Clay, but we're talking about Chris Freaking Sale here. He has been a top 5 pitcher in the AL for several years. Acquring him is a great move. I'm guilty of bringing up Pedro, but I wasn't quite trying to make a comparison (how can there be - Pedro was a generational pitcher?), but rather I was trying to make a point that Sale isn't head and shoulders above just about everybody else. At this point he's in a group with Porcello, Kluber, and Verlander. My concerns about Sale are his pitching motion and the amount of HRs he has given up. I worry that he's going to either get hurt and the Sox only get about a year out of him while giving up six seasons each from Moncada, Kopech, and even Basabe. Or that he declines a bit and pitches like David Price did last season where he's good, but not worth what they gave up. Pedro, when he struggled in that first year of 1998 was still pretty great. Sale doesn't have that kind of margin - who else does? I hope Sale doesn't continue to the pattern of slight regression he's been on. If he stays healthy, pitches like he has pitched the past five years, and gives the Sox three more years like that - and if he can be a difference maker in the post-season, then the deal becomes more justifiable. Maybe Moncada's K rate and defensive issues plague him (I still think he belongs more in the OF than at 3b or 2b), Kopech winds up a great bullpen arm, and Basabe is ordinary and the Red Sox made themselves a steal of a deal. But I think by 2020, if the Sox went empty in their window and Sale is gone and the others are young and productive at minimal cost for the White Sox while the Red Sox lose some significant free agents and have little in the way of young players or up and coming players to replace them, that could be a pretty big problem.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 19, 2016 8:43:21 GMT -5
To sum up this trade, this trade actually gave me more hope in Dombrowski to be honest.
Sale was the only guy to go get really and he was the only player that was available worth getting, and the Sox got him at a decent price. The death of Jose Fernandez put a stamp on this imo. I don't even think Jose Fernandez would of been available this winter if he was still alive anyways.
The only other player that I brought up to empty the farm system to go get was Arenado of the Rockies but it seems like he might be unavailable this off-season because the Rockies might be trying to compete for a wildcard this year (or that's what it seems like with the Bud Black hiring).
This trade looks a lot better if the Sox can leverage Sale into signing a extension past next year. I would pay him a little less than market rate during the two option years and offer him 3-4 years at market rate dollars beyond that to get him extended. Sale takes a little more now in order for the Sox to get years later. Seems fair, and he seems to be willing to dance in past extensions.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 19, 2016 14:38:39 GMT -5
To sum up this trade, this trade actually gave me more hope in Dombrowski to be honest. Sale was the only guy to go get really and he was the only player that was available worth getting, and the Sox got him at a decent price. The death of Jose Fernandez put a stamp on this imo. I don't even think Jose Fernandez would of been available this winter if he was still alive anyways. The only other player that I brought up to empty the farm system to go get was Arenado of the Rockies but it seems like he might be unavailable this off-season because the Rockies might be trying to compete for a wildcard this year (or that's what it seems like with the Bud Black hiring). This trade looks a lot better if the Sox can leverage Sale into signing a extension past next year. I would pay him a little less than market rate during the two option years and offer him 3-4 years at market rate dollars beyond that to get him extended. Sale takes a little more now in order for the Sox to get years later. Seems fair, and he seems to be willing to dance in past extensions. Don't underestimate his offseason home is in Naples, FL. 2 extra months of being at home (with very young children as well) can't hurt. He also has his winter offseason program at his alma mater FGCU in Ft Myers as well as being in contact with Porcello who also lives in the area.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,931
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 20, 2016 23:56:58 GMT -5
So, it's 2004. Wife comes home and husband is all excited.
"I got the best deal today. I didn't even think it was available!"
"And you bought ..."
"This awesome SUV!"
"Honey, we have your Lexus and my Toyota minivan. Why do we need an SUV?"
"It's awesome though. It might be the best SUV made."
"How much did you pay?"
"$75K."
"Isn't that way above list?"
"Of course it's above list. The demand is so great for this that they can't meet it. The waiting list is six months long! You seem to be missing the point of how awesome this vehicle is!"
"Actually, I don't think I am. Where did you get the $75K?"
"I sold our Apple stock."
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Post by bigpupp on Dec 21, 2016 0:35:42 GMT -5
"Or was it our stock in Blockbuster?"
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Post by Don Caballero on Dec 22, 2016 10:20:03 GMT -5
"Honey who cares how much I payed I'm rich as f**k and I damn wanted this SUV lol"
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Dec 22, 2016 11:39:33 GMT -5
If you think Devers will have a better career you have to have him rated higher. Proximity to majors is a factor as is a track record at higher levels. If there was a huge difference in what I expect, yes, but I think both will have excellent careers with Devers being the better hitter, ultimate defense close and Moncada the faster runner. Just my opinion but I'd have Moncada with the higher current ranking. As the trade went down, I'd have preferred Devers go to Moncada but a year from now I'd likely change that preference. I value WAR timing different than most, I discount for future WAR. (In my logic, no formula). I'm a believer that WAR two years from now can be generated next off-season. I hear what you are saying, but shouldn't that be a case by case basis? in other words one should not have a preference for either approach but it should be time dependant, in other words where is the team in the cycle of competing and how much of the future do I mortgage at the same time. It's a balance where sometimes you sway one way and other times the other way, no?
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 22, 2016 11:57:24 GMT -5
"Honey who cares how much I payed I'm rich as f**k and I damn wanted this SUV lol" Well, people who get rich and stay rich usually don't have the "well I'm rich as fck" so I can just throw my money around all over the place attitude. I think the point of the analogy was having the ability to see the value of things. Rich people who got their by being smart about their money tend to be very good on seeing value. That's largely why they are rich.
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