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Sale to BOS for Moncada, Kopech, Basabe, Diaz
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Post by texs31 on Dec 6, 2016 15:36:07 GMT -5
In a vacuum, the 3 bug trades are:
1. Kimbrel - As Chris H (I think) pointed out, having to add Logan Allen was likely excessive but, otherwise, probably reasonable
2. Pomeranz - Bad. Regardless of how either he or Espinoza end up, I can't see how this was the right value for such a highly regarded guy.
3. Sale - Probably the right value. Again, it hurts when you look at all of the moves. But that's the value of the best pitcher in the AL (and at a reasonable salary).
And now if he gets value out of his surplus, spends on the draft/internationally and locks in the established youth, I'm not sure we have reason to complain.
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Post by dirtdog on Dec 6, 2016 15:36:21 GMT -5
Red Sox picking up Moncada's money makes no sense either other than the fact that Jerry Reinsdorf is cheap.
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Post by texs31 on Dec 6, 2016 15:37:42 GMT -5
So you're assuming that either Moncada or Devers could've gotten the deal done?
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Post by preston on Dec 6, 2016 15:43:36 GMT -5
Dave must be very confident in a Pablo rebound
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Post by akiva on Dec 6, 2016 15:43:37 GMT -5
So who gets the ball on opening day?
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 6, 2016 15:47:54 GMT -5
As others have said, the idea he has gutted the system ignores the youth we have at the MLB level. It's one thing if DD traded for 30 year Olds and pending FAs. The fact is, our favorite organization has: 1. 23 Year Old MVP runner up 2. 23 Year Old All Star SS 3. 22 Year Old potential batting champ 4. 26 Year Old Gold Glove caliber CF who can hit 5. 4 SP that are 27 and younger. 6. A young/talented/cost-controlled bullpen 7. 3 catchers 27 or younger (granted, all with some ???s) 8. A top 15 prospect 9. A top 50 prospect Not too many organizations can make that claim. Exactly the point!!
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Dec 6, 2016 15:50:36 GMT -5
I don't know why...but I am bit sad right now. I feel like the day after I had a stack of chips at a blackjack table and I blew it on the highest class pro I could find.
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Post by jmei on Dec 6, 2016 15:50:59 GMT -5
I think a lot of how you view this trade depends on how you view the playoffs: as essentially a game of roulette where your odds don't vary much from 8:1 regardless of your team, or where one where the best 1-2 teams have substantially better than that. The Red Sox were heavy favorites to win the AL East before today; although they're heavier favorites today, it's probably only by a few % points. Assuming they make the playoffs, how much likelier are they to win the pennant? the World Series? I actually think they improved their playoff odds by a substantial amount. The difference between a projected 89 wins and a projected 93 wins (which I think is roughly the jump they made) is pretty big. The rest of the division looks weak now, but the Blue Jays, Orioles and Yankees still have moves to make.
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Post by dirtdog on Dec 6, 2016 15:52:15 GMT -5
So who gets the ball on opening day? Strictly a guess of course, the Cy Young winner.
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Post by thursty on Dec 6, 2016 15:54:55 GMT -5
I think a lot of how you view this trade depends on how you view the playoffs: as essentially a game of roulette where your odds don't vary much from 8:1 regardless of your team, or where one where the best 1-2 teams have substantially better than that. The Red Sox were heavy favorites to win the AL East before today; although they're heavier favorites today, it's probably only by a few % points. Assuming they make the playoffs, how much likelier are they to win the pennant? the World Series? I actually think they improved their playoff odds by a substantial amount. The difference between a projected 89 wins and a projected 93 wins (which I think is roughly the jump they made) is pretty big. The rest of the division looks weak now, but the Blue Jays, Orioles and Yankees still have moves to make. But the 2nd place team (Blue Jays) was at 82 wins - not sure what difference between +7 and +11 win differential is, but unlikely more than a handful of %
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Dec 6, 2016 15:55:46 GMT -5
I mean DD doesn't phuk around...at all.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 6, 2016 15:57:05 GMT -5
Red Sox picking up Moncada's money makes no sense either other than the fact that Jerry Reinsdorf is cheap. Where is anyone getting this from? Moncada got a $31m bonus that was paid. There was no chance that the White Sox were going to pick any of it up. Moncada will get the minimum MLB salary for the next 3 years and then go to arbitration like every other player. Boston paying his bonus is not news and doesn't change the deal at all.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Dec 6, 2016 15:57:47 GMT -5
I actually think they improved their playoff odds by a substantial amount. The difference between a projected 89 wins and a projected 93 wins (which I think is roughly the jump they made) is pretty big. The rest of the division looks weak now, but the Blue Jays, Orioles and Yankees still have moves to make. But the 2nd place team (Blue Jays) was at 82 wins - not sure what difference between +7 and +11 win differential is, but unlikely more than a handful of % The move has to be at least partially seen as a response to any playoff caliber team the MLB can offer....especially the Cubs. The problem will be getting there healthy. Hoping for the best.
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Post by jmei on Dec 6, 2016 16:00:34 GMT -5
Their top three is still strong, but there is no depth at all. At five through ten they're the weakest I can remember. It's a legitimate concern. It is, but they have such a young core, which help offset it somewhat. Unless tragedy happens, they have the OF locked up a for a few years, C, SS, 2B, SP and RP. They have Hanley for a couple more years at 1B and or DH. Devers coming along soon (assuming he's not traded). Groome. I think they should have time to replenish. It does put some pressure on the Sox to draft and sign IFA's efficiently, though. It's not ideal, but not so bad, either. Yes, they have a very, very good major league roster, almost all of which is under control for at least the next two or three years. But teams like that still need at least reasonably productive farm systems. Tragedy always happens. They'll need prospects to account for injury and underperformance, either directly or as trade pieces. Devers and Groome are fine prospects, but they don't have another prospect who is even remotely close to the top 100 after that-- it's low-ceiling guys closer to the majors (Travis, Johnson, Hernandez) or guys with warts who are at least two to three years from the majors (Dalbec, Chatham, Ockimey).
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Post by jmei on Dec 6, 2016 16:10:50 GMT -5
I actually think they improved their playoff odds by a substantial amount. The difference between a projected 89 wins and a projected 93 wins (which I think is roughly the jump they made) is pretty big. The rest of the division looks weak now, but the Blue Jays, Orioles and Yankees still have moves to make. But the 2nd place team (Blue Jays) was at 82 wins - not sure what difference between +7 and +11 win differential is, but unlikely more than a handful of % I don't actually think that's true. Error bars on preseason team projections are pretty big-- the average RMSE of preseason projected records is something like seven to eight wins, which means probability-wise, I think there's a significant jump-- at least by a double-digits percentage. ADD: the other point is that while the Blue Jays are at 82 now, there's still enough low-hanging fruit (for instance, they're getting projected sub-1.0-win production at both RF and LF and sub-1.5-win production at both 1B and DH) that they're likely to jump up to 84 or 85 by the start of the season. Same is true for the Orioles (they're essentially replacement-level at RF and DH).
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Post by dirtdog on Dec 6, 2016 16:14:31 GMT -5
Red Sox picking up Moncada's money makes no sense either other than the fact that Jerry Reinsdorf is cheap. Where is anyone getting this from? Moncada got a $31m bonus that was paid. There was no chance that the White Sox were going to pick any of it up. Moncada will get the minimum MLB salary for the next 3 years and then go to arbitration like every other player. Boston paying his bonus is not news and doesn't change the deal at all.
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Post by shaqtus on Dec 6, 2016 16:17:14 GMT -5
Where is anyone getting this from? Moncada got a $31m bonus that was paid. There was no chance that the White Sox were going to pick any of it up. Moncada will get the minimum MLB salary for the next 3 years and then go to arbitration like every other player. Boston paying his bonus is not news and doesn't change the deal at all. Why shouldn't they? It was a signing bonus, not salary. It's not as though the Red Sox are "eating" anything here.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 6, 2016 16:17:43 GMT -5
It is, but they have such a young core, which help offset it somewhat. Unless tragedy happens, they have the OF locked up a for a few years, C, SS, 2B, SP and RP. They have Hanley for a couple more years at 1B and or DH. Devers coming along soon (assuming he's not traded). Groome. I think they should have time to replenish. It does put some pressure on the Sox to draft and sign IFA's efficiently, though. It's not ideal, but not so bad, either. Yes, they have a very, very good major league roster, almost all of which is under control for at least the next two or three years. But teams like that still need at least reasonably productive farm systems. Tragedy always happens. They'll need prospects to account for injury and underperformance, either directly or as trade pieces. Devers and Groome are fine prospects, but they don't have another prospect who is even remotely close to the top 100 after that-- it's low-ceiling guys closer to the majors (Travis, Johnson, Hernandez) or guys with warts who are at least two to three years from the majors (Dalbec, Chatham, Ockimey). Yes. You said this more eloquently than I. From one to twenty-five, they are close to the Cubs as having baseball's best roster. But there is really no depth, either to help in case of injuries or to supplement in-season with a trade. And the chances both Devers and Groome turn into stars is pretty limited.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,930
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Post by nomar on Dec 6, 2016 16:22:20 GMT -5
Is it pissing anyone else that the media/fans do not understand the concept of a signing bonus/minor league deal not mattering to the luxury tax threshold? John Henry isn't losing sleep over this.
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Post by Gwell55 on Dec 6, 2016 16:27:22 GMT -5
So who gets the ball on opening day? Flips the coin up a few times ............ Buchholtz
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Post by curiousle on Dec 6, 2016 16:27:40 GMT -5
if Dombroski keeps this up, we'll return to Scott Blue being a top prospect.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 6, 2016 16:28:08 GMT -5
Where is anyone getting this from? Moncada got a $31m bonus that was paid. There was no chance that the White Sox were going to pick any of it up. Moncada will get the minimum MLB salary for the next 3 years and then go to arbitration like every other player. Boston paying his bonus is not news and doesn't change the deal at all. Those people are reacting to nothing. There is no contract, just a bonus.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 6, 2016 16:32:14 GMT -5
Brian MacPherson @brianmacp Dombrowski offers "a tip of my cap" to Cherington, Hazen, Sawdaye for the work that regime did to develop such depth in young talent.
Guessing this will not assuage the anger of some here. Kind of like a politician saying, "Hey, I won, OK?"
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Post by jmei on Dec 6, 2016 16:33:20 GMT -5
Is it pissing anyone else that the media/fans do not understand the concept of a signing bonus/minor league deal not mattering to the luxury tax threshold? John Henry isn't losing sleep over this. You're right that it doesn't matter for the luxury tax, but it's still cash that needs to be paid. There's close to $35M in payments that do not count for the luxury tax calculations but which the Red Sox still owe this year ($10.5M-ish in deferred Moncada bonus, $12M for Castillo, $11M for Craig). John Henry is a rich man, but that's still a lot of money that presumably eats into the baseball operations budget.
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Post by kman22 on Dec 6, 2016 16:34:04 GMT -5
Those people are reacting to nothing. There is no contract, just a bonus. I'm guessing the signing bonus was not paid in a lump sum, so these people are just pointing out that the White Sox won't have to pay any of the remaining balance.
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