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Post by stevedillard on May 7, 2018 13:01:55 GMT -5
And I was not hoping to relive the trading of prospects point. I was focusing more on the weaker influx than might have been hoped for. In particular, the higher bonus guys like Brannen and Scherff have had difficult starts to their careers and Houck is less polished and more of a work in progress.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 7, 2018 13:07:26 GMT -5
I will just make a point of pointing out moves that did work out for championship teams with "going for the title."
-Andrew Miller with the Indians -Yu Darvish for the Dodgers -Justin Verlander for the Astros* -Arodlis Chapman for the Cubs* -Johnny Cueto for the Royals* -Yeonis Cespedes for the Mets
*won world series
These teams the last 3 years have made moves that hurt their farm systems and got them to the world series. There's a point to made that the effort should be there HOWEVER I could see where someone says *when has it gone too far?* Especially with a system that has lost as much as the Sox system has the last 3 years.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 7, 2018 13:10:50 GMT -5
And I was not hoping to relive the trading of prospects point. I was focusing more on the weaker influx than might have been hoped for. In particular, the higher bonus guys like Brannen and Scherff have had difficult starts to their careers and Houck is less polished and more of a work in progress. It's still way too early to make a opinion on any one the guys that just got drafted. Wait 2 years and see where they are at that point. That is probably my best advice to people who are quick to judge the progress this early of last years draft class. A lot can happen between now and the next 2 years. Brannen might find a new swing. Houck might develop a new great pitch to his arsenal, etc.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 7, 2018 13:14:00 GMT -5
in Hindsight, he clearly emptied the cupboard. it was for pitching, so there is that, which is what the pro club needed. All the development is not completed yet, so while things dont look great, There is room for improvement.
It's funny I looked at some of the traded players the other day, and it is still a mixed bag, as far as production. One thing for sure is he should have got some other prospects back for those deals, in retrospect, that was a mistake.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 7, 2018 13:17:41 GMT -5
DD could trade every prospect in the absolute most perfect trade and create the best baseball team of all time and still not win the World Series. Once an uber team makes the playoffs, they have at most a 20% chance of winning. That's why the realistic goal of the GM is to make the playoffs every year, not win the WS every year. This is also why I hate the wild card and extra playoff rounds. This is also why I hate "going for it". Fair point Jimed, sorry about dragging out other threads and making it kind of personal with our different philosophies. One of us might be right or wrong, but I think our heads are in the right place for different reasons. The way Dombrowski has run the ballclub, there's only one scenario that the Sox come away with this and still be really good in 2 or 3 years and that's if they come away with steal trades of veteran players (JBJ for prospects for example) and that they come away lucky and hit on mostly every high end prospect they sign (with large bonuses) and draft in the upper parts of the draft. The large reason why I'm so hard headed about this topic is because *I don't want the Sox to screw this title run up.* It would absolutely haunt me if it does happen. I'll say dumb stuff all the time, but as long as the Sox come out ahead, it's fine by me. You're worried about the long term, I'm stuck in the now because of the way the team has been run. Again, two different philosophies but we will see how it unfolds. Philosophically I'm about the long-term or at least balancing the long-term with the short-term, etc. But given what the Sox have done and where they're at, they've kind of put themselves in a situation where they have to try to max over the next few years. While it's true nobody knows the future, the reality is their farm system is not good. The draft isn't set up to be like it was in 2011 so that makes it harder. They took hits with the international draft, as you pointed out, with the penalties for the "package" deals and the tragedy that happened last November. There's very little in the lower levels that look like can't miss stars or even starting players. They are thin up the middle and lack big bopper types. There's a lot of holes there. So that leaves the Sox trying to use their money in free agency to either fill holes or more importantly maintain the players they have - and to do so is big bucks while paying for declining performances. That really doesn't bode well. And now the way the playoff system works - it's like one of the Sox or Yankees could conceivably win 100 games and finish 2nd and get knocked out in the Wild Card game or go to the 1st series against their arch-rival and lose to the best team in baseball - not in the ALCS, but rather the ALDS because the Wild Card winner is looked at as a #4 seed even though it's conceivable that team is really a #2 type of seed. The Sox need to stay out of that playoff game. They won't get the gimme the Yankees got last year. So I'm inclined to say they don't really have an off-limit prospect, yet the thought of these pitchers leaving and the Sox not having anybody ready to step up in a few years is worrisome to me. Like I said, Dave has to thread the needle here. He's in a tough spot. Which is why I'm in favor of tinkering around the margins as opposed to any impact type move. They don't need a ton of improvements, but they have to field the best team they can within reason. Who's to say the Yankees won't parlay Andujar and others into Machado? Or more likely an impact starting pitcher? I would expect both teams to be active come July 31st rather than sitting down saying we're the best teams. The Yankees know that if they get into the Wild Card game, they might have to face Ohtani or some starting pitcher they'd rather not. They wouldn't be getting the Twins. In 2004 it really didn't matter. You both made the playoffs. The only real disadvantage was that you were the road team in Game 7 of the ALCS. Now the disadvantage to not finishing first place is real - that 1 game playoff. Once you get past it the disadvantage diminishes for the most part, although with the Sox they would have spent Sale or with the Yanks, they would have spent Severino leaving them at a bit of a disadvantage in the ALDS. But you still have to win that crapshoot game. So I think finishing 1st matters, although by the end of the ALDS last year it sure didn't feel that way.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 7, 2018 13:30:57 GMT -5
Yeah there's no way the Yankees don't go into this trade year's deadline and standing pat. Just no way.
Really, I could see the Yankees coming away with Arrieta this trade deadline. Perfect fit for what they're trying to do. If the price for Arrieta is too high for their liking, Cole Hammels will be there for cheaper.
I don't see the Yankees going after Machado with the way Andujar has been producing. Machado is clearly better, but I don't see how the Yankees look at that rotation and be okay with what they have in a playoff series rotation. The rotation piece is the piece they're probably going to go get.
It'll be interesting to see what Boston does.
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Post by jimed14 on May 7, 2018 14:22:55 GMT -5
I hope the Yankees panic because of the Red Sox, not vice versa. I doubt they will. They made it further than the Red Sox last year even with *only* making the Wild Card. Making the Wild Card doesn't really diminish your chance of winning the World Series a whole lot. It's just one extra game.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 7, 2018 14:34:43 GMT -5
The one X factor that could keep the Yankees away from a starter is Jestus Sheffield, but I still think the Yankees go after a starter and use Sheffield out of the bullpen in the playoffs and September this year. Kind of like with what Tampa Bay did with Price in 2008.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 7, 2018 14:36:32 GMT -5
I hope the Yankees panic because of the Red Sox, not vice versa. I doubt they will. They made it further than the Red Sox last year even with *only* making the Wild Card. Making the Wild Card doesn't really diminish your chance of winning the World Series a whole lot. It's just one extra game. It's just one extra game but it's an elimination game. Flukes happen in baseball, but in a 1 game playoff anything can happen. Last year the Yanks got very lucky - they played the one team that is scared to death of them. The Twins are a cross between the 62 Mets and the 69 Expos when they play the Yankees. They knocked out Severino in the 1st and it took all of 10 minutes for them to blow it. Neither team is getting that ridiculous a break this time.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 7, 2018 15:32:03 GMT -5
I hope the Yankees panic because of the Red Sox, not vice versa. I doubt they will. They made it further than the Red Sox last year even with *only* making the Wild Card. Making the Wild Card doesn't really diminish your chance of winning the World Series a whole lot. It's just one extra game. It's just one extra game but it's an elimination game. Flukes happen in baseball, but in a 1 game playoff anything can happen. Last year the Yanks got very lucky - they played the one team that is scared to death of them. The Twins are a cross between the 62 Mets and the 69 Expos when they play the Yankees. They knocked out Severino in the 1st and it took all of 10 minutes for them to blow it. Neither team is getting that ridiculous a break this time. I agree with both you and Jimed. Once you get past that wildcard game, your odds are as good as anyone. You're right though about that game though. Devers could make 2 bad errors in that game and that could decide it (thinking of worst case scenarios) for example.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 7, 2018 15:32:46 GMT -5
Not mad that this discussion was so easily sparked again. Just disappointed.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 7, 2018 15:48:25 GMT -5
Not mad that this discussion was so easily sparked again. Just disappointed. About the Dave Dombrowski stuff? I thought there was a lot of good stuff and thoughts bounced around.
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Post by telson13 on May 7, 2018 17:11:26 GMT -5
I will just make a point of pointing out moves that did work out for championship teams with "going for the title." -Andrew Miller with the Indians -Yu Darvish for the Dodgers -Justin Verlander for the Astros* -Arodlis Chapman for the Cubs* -Johnny Cueto for the Royals* -Yeonis Cespedes for the Mets *won world series These teams the last 3 years have made moves that hurt their farm systems and got them to the world series. There's a point to made that the effort should be there HOWEVER I could see where someone says *when has it gone too far?* Especially with a system that has lost as much as the Sox system has the last 3 years. Yeah, but just because a team made/won the WS, it’s not a direct correlation. It’s not like “move x was 100% responsible for this positive outcome.” For example, the Cubs probably could be gotten a quality reliever instead of Chapman, and thus not have given up Gleyber Torres. They gave up 6+ years of an apparent All-Star talent for basically no cost, to get a reliever who probably didn’t really change the calculus all that much.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 7, 2018 17:16:44 GMT -5
I will just make a point of pointing out moves that did work out for championship teams with "going for the title." -Andrew Miller with the Indians -Yu Darvish for the Dodgers -Justin Verlander for the Astros* -Arodlis Chapman for the Cubs* -Johnny Cueto for the Royals* -Yeonis Cespedes for the Mets *won world series These teams the last 3 years have made moves that hurt their farm systems and got them to the world series. There's a point to made that the effort should be there HOWEVER I could see where someone says *when has it gone too far?* Especially with a system that has lost as much as the Sox system has the last 3 years. Yeah, but just because a team made/won the WS, it’s not a direct correlation. It’s not like “move x was 100% responsible for this positive outcome.” For example, the Cubs probably could be gotten a quality reliever instead of Chapman, and thus not have given up Gleyber Torres. They gave up 6+ years of an apparent All-Star talent for basically no cost, to get a reliever who probably didn’t really change the calculus all that much. Yeah you're right. Although I think the Chapman example was a bad one pointed out. Chapman had a ERA a little over 1 over the final few months and was awesome until the world series that year for the Cubs. Not a lot of relievers could give the kind of production gave the Cubs that half year. I still think the Cubs still do that trade today knowing who exactly they gave up. World Series flags fly forever. If you had said Johnny Cueto for example, you would have had a great point. Who gave them mostly mediocre and bad up until the world series, where he made one great start.
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Post by telson13 on May 7, 2018 17:30:18 GMT -5
Yeah, but just because a team made/won the WS, it’s not a direct correlation. It’s not like “move x was 100% responsible for this positive outcome.” For example, the Cubs probably could be gotten a quality reliever instead of Chapman, and thus not have given up Gleyber Torres. They gave up 6+ years of an apparent All-Star talent for basically no cost, to get a reliever who probably didn’t really change the calculus all that much. Yeah you're right. Although I think the Chapman example was a bad one pointed out. Chapman had a ERA a little over 1 over the final few months and was awesome until the world series that year for the Cubs. Not a lot of relievers could give the kind of production gave the Cubs that half year. I still think the Cubs still do that trade today knowing who exactly they gave up. World Series flags fly forever. If you had said Johnny Cueto for example, you would have had a great point. Who gave them mostly mediocre and bad up until the world series, where he made one great start. I used Chapman specifically because he played well. The point is that if they’d gotten a guy who put up a 2 ERA and had a similar postseason, it wouldn’t have changed a thing. Larry Anderson. Randy Johnson. Doyle Alexander. Even the best performances guarantee very little, and the cost is often atrocious. I really abhor rental deals, they are the absolute worst. They’re just very, very stupid. Now, deals like the Pomeranz one...those have merit. I didn’t much like it then, but it’s worked out reasonably well (similar to Boddicker in ‘88, who gave the Sox a boost in the trade year, and another very good year in ‘90, sandwiched around a #3- level year. He pitched like a 2 during his Sox tenure, over 2 1/2 seasons. Brady Anderson was almost certainly juiced, and Schilling took many years to reach his potential. At least the Sox got value in return.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 7, 2018 17:39:00 GMT -5
Yeah you're right. Although I think the Chapman example was a bad one pointed out. Chapman had a ERA a little over 1 over the final few months and was awesome until the world series that year for the Cubs. Not a lot of relievers could give the kind of production gave the Cubs that half year. I still think the Cubs still do that trade today knowing who exactly they gave up. World Series flags fly forever. If you had said Johnny Cueto for example, you would have had a great point. Who gave them mostly mediocre and bad up until the world series, where he made one great start. I used Chapman specifically because he played well. The point is that if they’d gotten a guy who put up a 2 ERA and had a similar postseason, it wouldn’t have changed a thing. Larry Anderson. Randy Johnson. Doyle Alexander. Even the best performances guarantee very little, and the cost is often atrocious. I really abhor rental deals, they are the absolute worst. They’re just very, very stupid. Now, deals like the Pomeranz one...those have merit. I didn’t much like it then, but it’s worked out reasonably well (similar to Boddicker in ‘88, who gave the Sox a boost in the trade year, and another very good year in ‘90, sandwiched around a #3- level year. He pitched like a 2 during his Sox tenure, over 2 1/2 seasons. Brady Anderson was almost certainly juiced, and Schilling took many years to reach his potential. At least the Sox got value in return. Ehh, I kind of agree to disagree here Telson. It's easy to say "player B could have given you similar performances to what player A gave you" after the fact. Who knows if player B (another reliever not named Chapman) is a disaster, rather than a strength?
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Post by juanpena on May 7, 2018 19:48:02 GMT -5
The one X factor that could keep the Yankees away from a starter is Jestus Sheffield, but I still think the Yankees go after a starter and use Sheffield out of the bullpen in the playoffs and September this year. Kind of like with what Tampa Bay did with Price in 2008. I think there's a good shot the Yankees give up more than they would have had to surrender for Gerrit Cole and come away with a lesser pitcher. Brian Cashman may be kicking himself for not pulling the trigger on Cole.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 7, 2018 20:21:55 GMT -5
The one X factor that could keep the Yankees away from a starter is Jestus Sheffield, but I still think the Yankees go after a starter and use Sheffield out of the bullpen in the playoffs and September this year. Kind of like with what Tampa Bay did with Price in 2008. I think there's a good shot the Yankees give up more than they would have had to surrender for Gerrit Cole and come away with a lesser pitcher. Brian Cashman may be kicking himself for not pulling the trigger on Cole. Yeah definitely. Should have added a extra piece somewhere in that Cole trade somewhere. I think Arrieta will be the best option available and he's more older and expensive.
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Post by larrycook on May 7, 2018 23:09:06 GMT -5
I think there's a good shot the Yankees give up more than they would have had to surrender for Gerrit Cole and come away with a lesser pitcher. Brian Cashman may be kicking himself for not pulling the trigger on Cole. Yeah definitely. Should have added a extra piece somewhere in that Cole trade somewhere. I think Arrieta will be the best option available and he's more older and expensive. Even if cashman had put together the pieces for Cole, I can not help but think Houston would have sweetened the pot that much more. This yankees team is really good, but dave has invested a ton of money and prospects to put together the 2018 sox. And if they are healthy and we are healthy, we can beat them. Dave’s problem is health or the lack thereof. Pedroia, Wright and Thornburg out now. Price and Pomeranz on the verge of tommy John. Smith not recovered yet from tommy John. Nunez playing on one leg. All teams have injuries, but we seem to have been unusually blessed with them
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Post by gregblossersbelly on May 8, 2018 18:23:27 GMT -5
Yeah definitely. Should have added a extra piece somewhere in that Cole trade somewhere. I think Arrieta will be the best option available and he's more older and expensive. Even if cashman had put together the pieces for Cole, I can not help but think Houston would have sweetened the pot that much more. This yankees team is really good, but dave has invested a ton of money and prospects to put together the 2018 sox. And if they are healthy and we are healthy, we can beat them. Dave’s problem is health or the lack thereof. Pedroia, Wright and Thornburg out now. Price and Pomeranz on the verge of tommy John. Smith not recovered yet from tommy John. Nunez playing on one leg. All teams have injuries, but we seem to have been unusually blessed with them Injuries helped derail Pats, Bruins and Celtics too this year.
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