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Post by James Dunne on Mar 5, 2017 16:33:34 GMT -5
I would say that the Dodgers lack of winning was because they were so bad building a team around Kershaw. I mean it got so bad that they had to change ownership while he's been there. . Just so I'm not misreading, you are right here asserting that Frank McCourt was forced to sell the Dodgers because of their mediocre lineup failing to put them over the top? Do I have that right? Because that's really, really incorrect. ----- Anyway, I'm pretty optimistic about the team in the medium term. But the idea that they shouldn't trade Groome because of the weak farm system doesn't sit with me. You get value where you can get it. If the team is built to win a World Series and can add an impact piece, I don't think the lack of depth on the farm should prevent it. I don't want to go too far down the rabbit hole about specific trade proposals in this thread. But if, say, the Diamondbacks were willing to do a Goldschmidt-for-Groome deal, I'd do that in a second because of the value, shape of the farm system be damned.
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Post by thursty on Mar 5, 2017 16:52:04 GMT -5
Ha! You might have missed it, but the Stewart/LaRussa dynamic duo were fired.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 5, 2017 18:19:47 GMT -5
Groome and Devers could both be great players coming in the next 3 years plus Travis could be very good not to mention any number of players that could develop or not even be drafted yet who could come from the system and help this team. Not to mention the incredibly young core. Not sure how many players you expect to come from a system every year but it seems a bit extreme. Add: should probably count Swithart and Vasquez in the system guys who could still come and help the team, plus guy's like Henry Owens.... This narrative that the team only has 3 years to be good is so misguided, but fits the typical pessimism. Yeah, if you're willing to be wildly optimistic about the guys they have left on the farm (and guys they don't have on the farm), everything will be fine. Realistically they have two players left who reasonably project as above-average major leaguers and with the salary structure and aging patterns in modern baseball being what they are, that's going to be a huge problem sooner than people realize. Also, I'd be a lot more forgiving of these trades if the end result of everything wasn't Chris Sale and what could easily end up being a bunch of nothing. There's no Miguel Cabrera in this group, that's for sure. Like if you want to sell out for a championship, fine, but the reason this team is in a position to do that is because Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, and Benintendi weren't traded. I'd also add there's an assumption that the Red Sox will spend the next three to four years drafting a bunch of Jason Groomes and build another powerhouse farm system that's well percolated by the time guys like JBJ, Bogaerts, Betts, Porcello and Sale leave via free agency if they're not signed to $200 million plus extensions. As if other teams will be standing around doing nothing as the Red Sox build a monster farm system. The advantages the Red Sox had in Theo's day are gone. They can't outspend in the draft anymore, nor can they outspend in the international market anymore either. They have to wait their turn and be smarter and luckier than everybody else. Now I'm not saying the Red Sox can't improve their farm system by the time they really, really need it, but I don't think it should be assumed that they'll have more than a middling farm system by then. If things start to go south in 2019 or 2020 the Red Sox might want to do what the Yankees did last season when they exploited Chapman's situation and turned two closers into two future cornerstones of the team.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 5, 2017 18:42:17 GMT -5
Groome and Devers could both be great players coming in the next 3 years plus Travis could be very good not to mention any number of players that could develop or not even be drafted yet who could come from the system and help this team. Not to mention the incredibly young core. Not sure how many players you expect to come from a system every year but it seems a bit extreme. Add: should probably count Swithart and Vasquez in the system guys who could still come and help the team, plus guy's like Henry Owens.... This narrative that the team only has 3 years to be good is so misguided, but fits the typical pessimism. Yeah, if you're willing to be wildly optimistic about the guys they have left on the farm (and guys they don't have on the farm), everything will be fine. Realistically they have two players left who reasonably project as above-average major leaguers and with the salary structure and aging patterns in modern baseball being what they are, that's going to be a huge problem sooner than people realize. Also, I'd be a lot more forgiving of these trades if the end result of everything wasn't Chris Sale and what could easily end up being a bunch of nothing. There's no Miguel Cabrera in this group, that's for sure. Like if you want to sell out for a championship, fine, but the reason this team is in a position to do that is because Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, and Benintendi weren't traded. They could rebuild really quickly if they traded JBJ, Mookie and Xander if they're not extended. I doubt they'd go that route though.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 6, 2017 1:49:17 GMT -5
I would say that the Dodgers lack of winning was because they were so bad building a team around Kershaw. I mean it got so bad that they had to change ownership while he's been there. . Just so I'm not misreading, you are right here asserting that Frank McCourt was forced to sell the Dodgers because of their mediocre lineup failing to put them over the top? Do I have that right? Because that's really, really incorrect. ----- Anyway, I'm pretty optimistic about the team in the medium term. But the idea that they shouldn't trade Groome because of the weak farm system doesn't sit with me. You get value where you can get it. If the team is built to win a World Series and can add an impact piece, I don't think the lack of depth on the farm should prevent it. I don't want to go too far down the rabbit hole about specific trade proposals in this thread. But if, say, the Diamondbacks were willing to do a Goldschmidt-for-Groome deal, I'd do that in a second because of the value, shape of the farm system be damned. No I wasn't directly linking the last two sentences of what I said, even though I can see where it would come off that way. I was just making a point that the Dodgers have been a very unstable franchise for most of the time Kershaw has been there, and that's the reason why they haven't won. Between the changing of ownership, GMs, coaches, managers, and frivolous spending. It's been a dumpster fire down there despite having the best pitcher of this generation in their organization. Just like what the Sox were with Pedro in the early 2000's. It's a damn shame they haven't capitalized with Kershaw, he's a all time talent that can play in any generation.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 6, 2017 2:37:39 GMT -5
Just to clean up your language, McCourt literally bought the team on pure leverage and everyone knew what was coming next.
MLB had the chance to admit Mark Cuban, a guy who actually cares about his team and players, into their boys club as the owner and they blew him off. I'm sure the jeans and casual shirts didn't look quite right.
Instead, the Dodgers became a glorified ATM machine for someone who epitomizes the parasitic nature of modern debt financing. Waking to the disaster belatedly - this is the MLB owners were talking about here - they finally got his tentacles pried loose with a $2 billion offer from the current ownership. So he milked the club and got his money.
In their quest to get some kind of show going, the new ownership pushed hard to get Adrian Gonzalez so they could put people in the seats and, more importantly, get eyeballs in front of screens. That's put them in a very deep hole which they're slowly digging out of. The Sox absolutely hit the jackpot on that.
As an aside, the notion that they lack talent is silly. They have a great young shortstop in Seager, the finest third baseman many have never heard of, and they may be one of the few teams with more potential starters than the Sox. Now they even have a second baseman. They can also bring in Kenley Jansen to finish off the opposition - Kimbrel with control!
Cry not for the Dodgers.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 6, 2017 3:08:10 GMT -5
No doubt the Dodgers are in a much better place now, I'm not arguing that point. Friedman makes odd decisions at times but he knows how to build a organization from the ground up.
It's ironic that once the Dodgers are starting to put it together when Kershaw starts having health issues.
I only used the language to emphasize my point. I'm a huge fan of Kershaw and it kind of offends me that the Dodgers haven't won with him yet. I'll avoid using any language like that in the future. Didn't mean you offend anyone.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 7, 2017 8:25:14 GMT -5
Yeah, if you're willing to be wildly optimistic about the guys they have left on the farm (and guys they don't have on the farm), everything will be fine. Realistically they have two players left who reasonably project as above-average major leaguers and with the salary structure and aging patterns in modern baseball being what they are, that's going to be a huge problem sooner than people realize. Also, I'd be a lot more forgiving of these trades if the end result of everything wasn't Chris Sale and what could easily end up being a bunch of nothing. There's no Miguel Cabrera in this group, that's for sure. Like if you want to sell out for a championship, fine, but the reason this team is in a position to do that is because Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, and Benintendi weren't traded. I'd also add there's an assumption that the Red Sox will spend the next three to four years drafting a bunch of Jason Groomes and build another powerhouse farm system that's well percolated by the time guys like JBJ, Bogaerts, Betts, Porcello and Sale leave via free agency if they're not signed to $200 million plus extensions. As if other teams will be standing around doing nothing as the Red Sox build a monster farm system. The advantages the Red Sox had in Theo's day are gone. They can't outspend in the draft anymore, nor can they outspend in the international market anymore either. They have to wait their turn and be smarter and luckier than everybody else. Now I'm not saying the Red Sox can't improve their farm system by the time they really, really need it, but I don't think it should be assumed that they'll have more than a middling farm system by then. If things start to go south in 2019 or 2020 the Red Sox might want to do what the Yankees did last season when they exploited Chapman's situation and turned two closers into two future cornerstones of the team. Sorry there was no assumptions just pointing out things change in 3 years so for the pessimists to sit here and act like the Red Sox have a 3 year window to be good is foolish. You guys are the ones making assumptions not me.
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Post by gerry on Mar 7, 2017 13:16:14 GMT -5
In a 5 year window scenario, in 2021, the Sox will still have Beni, Devers, Travis, Dalbec, Chatham and other position players under team control. It is likely that 4 or even 5 of Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, Hernandez, Swihart, Vasquez will have been extended, with the balance traded for solid talent. This should take care of most of C, 1B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF. And Pedey could still be doing the Brady thing at 2B.
Among the SP, in 2021, certainly two of Price, Porcello, Sale, Pomz will still be here with ERod and Wright. By 2020, perhaps two of Groome, Raudes, Lakins, Shawaryn, Acosta among others will have stepped up from the kids and be under team control, with the likelihood that one of the 8 or 9 young AAA and AA SP's (like Johnson) will have survived and be contributing at a high level.
A large contingent of RP's are working their way to Fenway to join whomever remains of the current dozen bullpen arms, and we don't yet know which of the SP's in the system will convert to relievers. So, despite the traditional volatility of relievers, the Pen should remain strong well into the future.
It is safe to say that the guy who traded for Sale, Pomz, Smith, Thornburg, Zeigler, Abad (and held onto Beni, Betts, XB, JBJ, Swihart, CV , Devers, Groome, Travis, etc.) will also trade those who don't sign extensions for "best talent available" at positions of need. Other considerations include potential for above average talent emerging by 2020 from the current low Minors and the 2016, 2017 and 2018 drafts and international signings.
I agree that the 3 year window is open wide. But that doesn 't mean the window slams shut for 2020 and beyond. It is far more likely to remain open for years. Of course we will miss Moncada, Kopech, Neo, Margot, Basabe, etc. But, respectfully, I am fine with Devers, Sale, Groome, Beni/Mookie/JBJ, (and Pedey at 2B) for the next 3 years, and likely for the 3 years following.
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Post by borisman on Mar 7, 2017 17:01:16 GMT -5
Just throwing this in here because. Moncada has 12K's in 19 AB's. Yikes! (<- incorrect...was reading the wrong info) Edit: 8K's in 18 AB's. Semi-Yikes!
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 8, 2017 0:50:16 GMT -5
Just throwing this in here because. Moncada has 12K's in 19 AB's. Yikes! Are you reading his line from last season's call-up? Because that's what he did over those 8 games. The guy is definitely in need of more seasoning. He was rushed along, sort of caught up in Benintendi's wake. It's clear he's going to need more minor league at-bats, maybe a lot more. I've been wondering if there's any chance he makes it up this year. That's looking increasingly unlikely.
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Post by Coreno on Mar 8, 2017 1:22:38 GMT -5
Yeah, those are his numbers from Sep. He has 8 Ks in 18ABs this spring.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 8, 2017 3:15:38 GMT -5
In a 5 year window scenario, in 2021, the Sox will still have Beni, Devers, Travis, Dalbec, Chatham and other position players under team control. It is likely that 4 or even 5 of Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, Hernandez, Swihart, Vasquez will have been extended, with the balance traded for solid talent. This should take care of most of C, 1B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF. And Pedey could still be doing the Brady thing at 2B. Among the SP, in 2021, certainly two of Price, Porcello, Sale, Pomz will still be here with ERod and Wright. By 2020, perhaps two of Groome, Raudes, Lakins, Shawaryn, Acosta among others will have stepped up from the kids and be under team control, with the likelihood that one of the 8 or 9 young AAA and AA SP's (like Johnson) will have survived and be contributing at a high level. A large contingent of RP's are working their way to Fenway to join whomever remains of the current dozen bullpen arms, and we don't yet know which of the SP's in the system will convert to relievers. So, despite the traditional volatility of relievers, the Pen should remain strong well into the future. It is safe to say that the guy who traded for Sale, Pomz, Smith, Thornburg, Zeigler, Abad (and held onto Beni, Betts, XB, JBJ, Swihart, CV , Devers, Groome, Travis, etc.) will also trade those who don't sign extensions for "best talent available" at positions of need. Other considerations include potential for above average talent emerging by 2020 from the current low Minors and the 2016, 2017 and 2018 drafts and international signings. I agree that the 3 year window is open wide. But that doesn 't mean the window slams shut for 2020 and beyond. It is far more likely to remain open for years. Of course we will miss Moncada, Kopech, Neo, Margot, Basabe, etc. But, respectfully, I am fine with Devers, Sale, Groome, Beni/Mookie/JBJ, (and Pedey at 2B) for the next 3 years, and likely for the 3 years following. Just looking at the bigger names: Price and Sale/Porcello will cost upwards of $60m annually. Rodriguez will add probably $10-15m depending on if he's an early or late extension (optimistically). That's $70 minimum for the first 3/5 of the rotation. Wright would also need to be extended, and fifth starters (if he's not substantially better) are $15m a year by then. Betts and Bogaerts would be likely nearly $50m annually combined in five years if they're both extended. Pedroia adds another $13m or so (although I doubt he's still remotely the player he is today in five years). And JBJ would be a $20m a year player. That's over $150m (not including Wright) and you still need to account for late-arb Benintendi, extensions for Swihart/Vazquez, another starter, Devers or another 3b, and the ENTIRE bullpen, plus a 1b and your bench. It's not feasible. Unless they get some fantastic deals on extensions, some big names are gonna go, and that's going to significantly negatively impact their chances of winning in 2019-2021, when they are forced to make those tough choices.
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Post by sarasoxer on Mar 8, 2017 7:57:05 GMT -5
In a 5 year window scenario, in 2021, the Sox will still have Beni, Devers, Travis, Dalbec, Chatham and other position players under team control. It is likely that 4 or even 5 of Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, Hernandez, Swihart, Vasquez will have been extended, with the balance traded for solid talent. This should take care of most of C, 1B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF. And Pedey could still be doing the Brady thing at 2B. Among the SP, in 2021, certainly two of Price, Porcello, Sale, Pomz will still be here with ERod and Wright. By 2020, perhaps two of Groome, Raudes, Lakins, Shawaryn, Acosta among others will have stepped up from the kids and be under team control, with the likelihood that one of the 8 or 9 young AAA and AA SP's (like Johnson) will have survived and be contributing at a high level. A large contingent of RP's are working their way to Fenway to join whomever remains of the current dozen bullpen arms, and we don't yet know which of the SP's in the system will convert to relievers. So, despite the traditional volatility of relievers, the Pen should remain strong well into the future. It is safe to say that the guy who traded for Sale, Pomz, Smith, Thornburg, Zeigler, Abad (and held onto Beni, Betts, XB, JBJ, Swihart, CV , Devers, Groome, Travis, etc.) will also trade those who don't sign extensions for "best talent available" at positions of need. Other considerations include potential for above average talent emerging by 2020 from the current low Minors and the 2016, 2017 and 2018 drafts and international signings. I agree that the 3 year window is open wide. But that doesn 't mean the window slams shut for 2020 and beyond. It is far more likely to remain open for years. Of course we will miss Moncada, Kopech, Neo, Margot, Basabe, etc. But, respectfully, I am fine with Devers, Sale, Groome, Beni/Mookie/JBJ, (and Pedey at 2B) for the next 3 years, and likely for the 3 years following. Just looking at the bigger names: Price and Sale/Porcello will cost upwards of $60m annually. Rodriguez will add probably $10-15m depending on if he's an early or late extension (optimistically). That's $70 minimum for the first 3/5 of the rotation. Wright would also need to be extended, and fifth starters (if he's not substantially better) are $15m a year by then. Betts and Bogaerts would be likely nearly $50m annually combined in five years if they're both extended. Pedroia adds another $13m or so (although I doubt he's still remotely the player he is today in five years). And JBJ would be a $20m a year player. That's over $150m (not including Wright) and you still need to account for late-arb Benintendi, extensions for Swihart/Vazquez, another starter, Devers or another 3b, and the ENTIRE bullpen, plus a 1b and your bench. It's not feasible. Unless they get some fantastic deals on extensions, some big names are gonna go, and that's going to significantly negatively impact their chances of winning in 2019-2021, when they are forced to make those tough choices. Depression has just set in. I may need a prescription doctor.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 9, 2017 0:20:18 GMT -5
Just looking at the bigger names: Price and Sale/Porcello will cost upwards of $60m annually. Rodriguez will add probably $10-15m depending on if he's an early or late extension (optimistically). That's $70 minimum for the first 3/5 of the rotation. Wright would also need to be extended, and fifth starters (if he's not substantially better) are $15m a year by then. Betts and Bogaerts would be likely nearly $50m annually combined in five years if they're both extended. Pedroia adds another $13m or so (although I doubt he's still remotely the player he is today in five years). And JBJ would be a $20m a year player. That's over $150m (not including Wright) and you still need to account for late-arb Benintendi, extensions for Swihart/Vazquez, another starter, Devers or another 3b, and the ENTIRE bullpen, plus a 1b and your bench. It's not feasible. Unless they get some fantastic deals on extensions, some big names are gonna go, and that's going to significantly negatively impact their chances of winning in 2019-2021, when they are forced to make those tough choices. Depression has just set in. I may need a prescription doctor. Haha! Well, I'm holding out hope that at least three of the following five things happen: 1) Rodriguez becomes a legitimate TOR starter. If he can be a solid 2 (and I think there's more there), he essentially replaces Porcello. If they re-sign Sale, they can find a 4-5 combo (maybe Wright gets extended on a fairly low-cost contract along with Rodriguez?) just about anywhere that will suffice. 2) Benintendi is the real deal ASAP. I actually think he will be, or at least close enough for government work. That makes offense from positions like CF (where JBJ is probably a candidate to get moved barring a team-friendly extension) less critical. 3) Devers is the answer within two years. I didn't mention Sandoval or Hanley's deals for this reason: there's no way the Sox can afford anything like that. They need a dirt-cheap 2.5 WAR or better 3b. Again, I think Devers is a good bet based on his outstanding arm, surprisingly smooth motions (if limited range), and offensive potential. 4) Kimbrel is replaced from within by Kelly (who gets extended), Barnes, or Thornburg, and traded for high-end minor league talent. The corollary is that at least two of Cosart, Ysla, Martin, Maddox, Jerez, etc need to morph into viable MLB pitchers. 5) Betts and Bogaerts both sign favorable long-term deals at slightly less than my prediction. That means getting it done ASAP, and buying out arb. The longer the team waits, the worse the terms five years out get. But yeah, this is basically why I really disliked the Sale trade. As terrific as he is, I think there were much better ways to dramatically improve the team long-term (like keeping their MLB-close talent) and only slightly less in the short-term (sign a certain FA 3b and flip him if need be). I liked the Thornburg deal OK (I like Hernandez's bat and adequate SS play, making Dubon expendable), but the Sale move just killed their upper-level farm depth, which they *appear* to need in 2-3 years. Yeah, maybe they get lucky on Groome et al, or Dombrowski manages to make some savvy Chapman-for-Torres or Miller for Frazier-Sheffield type moves, but the first is a huge if and the second is essentially unprecedented in his history (and would have to occur with his team contending, hopefully). I just think that all signs point to this being a very different team in 3-4 years.
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Post by ctfisher on Mar 13, 2017 10:59:03 GMT -5
Just looking at the bigger names: Price and Sale/Porcello will cost upwards of $60m annually. Rodriguez will add probably $10-15m depending on if he's an early or late extension (optimistically). That's $70 minimum for the first 3/5 of the rotation. Wright would also need to be extended, and fifth starters (if he's not substantially better) are $15m a year by then. Betts and Bogaerts would be likely nearly $50m annually combined in five years if they're both extended. Pedroia adds another $13m or so (although I doubt he's still remotely the player he is today in five years). And JBJ would be a $20m a year player. That's over $150m (not including Wright) and you still need to account for late-arb Benintendi, extensions for Swihart/Vazquez, another starter, Devers or another 3b, and the ENTIRE bullpen, plus a 1b and your bench. It's not feasible. Unless they get some fantastic deals on extensions, some big names are gonna go, and that's going to significantly negatively impact their chances of winning in 2019-2021, when they are forced to make those tough choices. I personally suspect that Bradley is going to end up dealt or signing somewhere else- he's a Boras client who will probably be able to make a convincing argument that he should be paid like a middle of the order kind of bat who's also a gold glover, but offensively he's streaky enough to make me worry, and I think he's benefited from being something like the 5-6th best bat in our lineup over the past couple of years. On top of that, I think it's unlikely that we extend both Vazquez and Swihart- one will emerge eventually, and it's usually not overly difficult to find a solid backup comparatively cheap. Whatever you think about the farm system, it will likely produce at least a couple of cheap bullpen arms as well. I think its clear that not all of the impact players on this years team will still be around 3-5 years from now, but to suggest that they will be a bad team by 2020 is pushing a worst case scenario on us. At some point, we'll have to pick one of Porcello and Sale or dealing Price if theres a market for him, Swihart vs. Vazquez, and which 2 (hopefully) between Bogaerts, Betts and Bradley to keep. You're also assuming that we need to sign a 5th starter- given the time frame we're looking at, there's a decent chance that Groome is plugged in there assuming he doesn't bust, and a not insignificant chance that we produce another fungible starter from the system over that time frame as well, to say nothing of producing a number of solid bullpen arms, which I think is a solid bet. Forecasting what the roster will look like that far out is a fools errand, but I think we can say with confidence that 3 of Benintendi, Bradley, Bogaerts and Betts will still be on the roster, 2 of Sale Price and Porcello, Rodriguez should be in his last year of team control without an extension, and there are at least a few spots that are likely filled by young players on rookie contracts. You have to be relatively pessimistic about player development and how the Sox will operate to get to that $150m number, and even if you do get there, you're still looking at about $70m to get to the tax to spend on the rest of the team- that doesn't sound unreasonable with that core in place
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