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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 9, 2017 12:03:24 GMT -5
Is that only among qualifiers, Eric? Promotions tend to sort of thin the herd if you don't remove that limitation on the list.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 9, 2017 12:11:19 GMT -5
Is that only among qualifiers, Eric? Promotions tend to sort of thin the herd if you don't remove that limitation on the list. Minimum 200 PA. I figure less than that, you're not perceived as having been an A+ player. This is what I get for firing off a drive-by post! It's 278 players, just more than 9 per team, so it appears to have been a good choice! If I'd wanted exactly 270, the cutoff would have been 208.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 9, 2017 12:49:00 GMT -5
200 PA seems fair. Wasn't a criticism - honest question.
It's an interesting analysis. Two notes I'd add:
1) Limiting by age in that way is that you're essentially weeding out college draftees entirely unless they're raking. But there probably isn't a good way to do that without then adding high school or IFA players who are older than you'd like to limit the sample too. 2) The High A leagues are quite extreme. The California League is probably the most hitter friendly minor league and has wild variance from park-to-park. The Carolina League is probably the most pitcher friendly. I guess wRC+ adjusts for league, but frankly, playing in such disparate environments is going to change how the game is being played. This isn't a methodology point so much as a point about comparing across all three High A leagues - it's gotta be taken with a bit of a grain of salt, imo.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 9, 2017 14:24:26 GMT -5
200 PA seems fair. Wasn't a criticism - honest question. It's an interesting analysis. Two notes I'd add: 1) Limiting by age in that way is that you're essentially weeding out college draftees entirely unless they're raking. But there probably isn't a good way to do that without then adding high school or IFA players who are older than you'd like to limit the sample too. 2) The High A leagues are quite extreme. The California League is probably the most hitter friendly minor league and has wild variance from park-to-park. The Carolina League is probably the most pitcher friendly. I guess wRC+ adjusts for league, but frankly, playing in such disparate environments is going to change how the game is being played. This isn't a methodology point so much as a point about comparing across all three High A leagues - it's gotta be taken with a bit of a grain of salt, imo. I didn't take it as a criticism -- I took it as a question asked of a guy who normally always specifies stuff like that! What I did was use a 20 wRC+ per year of age adjustment. You'd have to drop it to 16 to get the best age 23 guy, the Yankees' Chris Gittens at 153, and 8 to get the best age 24 guy, the Twins' Chris Paul. I don't recall regarding a guy their age in A+ as a prospect. Nava had a 152 at age 25, but people didn't take him seriously until he put up a 195 in AA the second half of the next year ... and IIRC that just got him onto BA's depth chart, not the top 30. Yeah, the extreme parks add a lot of noise to the numbers. To get back to Ock, it's hard to know if he should be trade bait this winter, because the future at 1B is far and away the most up in the air of any spot on the 25. We obviously don't know whether we'd be selling high or low on him. We don't really know how good Travis is yet. We'll have money to spend this winter, but it's unclear that Logan Morrison or Eric Hosmer is the sort of guy you want to invest in. We'll have Swihart as a trade chip, but the only trade target I kind of like is Justin Bour, and the Marlins don't need a catcher. There's even a chance that Brentz can learn the position over the winter and be as good or better than all of the above for next to nothing. It's rare that I have no sense at all of what our near future is or should be at a position, but that's the case now at 1B.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 9, 2017 16:27:08 GMT -5
It's rare that I have no sense at all of what our near future is or should be at a position, but that's the case now at 1B. I know, right? Weak FA class. From MLBTR ( www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/2017-18-mlb-free-agent-list.html ): First Basemen Yonder Alonso (31) Lucas Duda (32) Matt Holliday (38) Eric Hosmer (28) John Jaso (34) Adam Lind (34) — $5MM mutual option with a $500K buyout Mitch Moreland (32) Logan Morrison (30) Mike Napoli (36) — $11MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout Mark Reynolds (34) Carlos Santana (32) Plus Todd Frazier (32), Plouffe (32). Maybe J.D. Martinez moves there?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 9, 2017 22:22:30 GMT -5
It's rare that I have no sense at all of what our near future is or should be at a position, but that's the case now at 1B. I know, right? Weak FA class. From MLBTR ( www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/2017-18-mlb-free-agent-list.html ): First Basemen Yonder Alonso (31) Lucas Duda (32) Matt Holliday (38) Eric Hosmer (28) John Jaso (34) Adam Lind (34) — $5MM mutual option with a $500K buyout Mitch Moreland (32) Logan Morrison (30) Mike Napoli (36) — $11MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout Mark Reynolds (34) Carlos Santana (32) Plus Todd Frazier (32), Plouffe (32). Maybe J.D. Martinez moves there? Possible trade targets (figures are AAV): Justin Smoak (1 x $4.25M plus option $6M to $8M) Jose Abreu (2 x arb; made $10.825M this year) Matt Carpenter (2 x $8.67M AAV, but $30M actually owed. Rookie Luke Voit has been nearly as good.) Justin Bour (3 x arb) Brandon Belt (4 x $18.2M)
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 10, 2017 23:11:45 GMT -5
Suppose there was a first baseman who was also magically a pitcher that never gave up runs. I'd get that guy.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 11, 2017 3:25:07 GMT -5
Suppose there was a first baseman who was also magically a pitcher that never gave up runs. I'd get that guy. Lol is this a Otani joke?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 11, 2017 3:29:00 GMT -5
I know, right? Weak FA class. From MLBTR ( www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/2017-18-mlb-free-agent-list.html ): First Basemen Yonder Alonso (31) Lucas Duda (32) Matt Holliday (38) Eric Hosmer (28) John Jaso (34) Adam Lind (34) — $5MM mutual option with a $500K buyout Mitch Moreland (32) Logan Morrison (30) Mike Napoli (36) — $11MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout Mark Reynolds (34) Carlos Santana (32) Plus Todd Frazier (32), Plouffe (32). Maybe J.D. Martinez moves there? Possible trade targets (figures are AAV): Justin Smoak (1 x $4.25M plus option $6M to $8M) Jose Abreu (2 x arb; made $10.825M this year) Matt Carpenter (2 x $8.67M AAV, but $30M actually owed. Rookie Luke Voit has been nearly as good.) Justin Bour (3 x arb) Brandon Belt (4 x $18.2M) Bour and Abreu are the only two names that interest me on that list. You might be able to add Goldschmidt to that list if you gave up a ton, but I doubt he's even available. The only free agent that interests me is J.D. Martinez and he'll cost a pretty penny in terms of dollars.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 11, 2017 3:39:36 GMT -5
My impression on Okimey is that if his defense becomes even average at first base, then the Sox might have something here. I have a huge feeling that Dombrowski will trade him away before the Sox ever find out however.
Personally I like Okimey's profile as a hitter more than Travis, maybe that's just me.
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Post by natesp4 on Aug 11, 2017 6:02:53 GMT -5
Suppose there was a first baseman who was also magically a pitcher that never gave up runs. I'd get that guy. Lol is this a Otani joke? Otani's talents are trivial compared to who he's talking about. Our boy Tucker Tubbs. 80 grade name and 80 grade pitcher.
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Post by ryan24 on Aug 11, 2017 7:23:17 GMT -5
I know, right? Weak FA class. From MLBTR ( www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/2017-18-mlb-free-agent-list.html ): First Basemen Yonder Alonso (31) Lucas Duda (32) Matt Holliday (38) Eric Hosmer (28) John Jaso (34) Adam Lind (34) — $5MM mutual option with a $500K buyout Mitch Moreland (32) Logan Morrison (30) Mike Napoli (36) — $11MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout Mark Reynolds (34) Carlos Santana (32) Plus Todd Frazier (32), Plouffe (32). Maybe J.D. Martinez moves there? Possible trade targets (figures are AAV): Justin Smoak (1 x $4.25M plus option $6M to $8M) Jose Abreu (2 x arb; made $10.825M this year) Matt Carpenter (2 x $8.67M AAV, but $30M actually owed. Rookie Luke Voit has been nearly as good.) Justin Bour (3 x arb) Brandon Belt (4 x $18.2M) Eric certainly has pointed out a wow area that will need to be addressed. How bad does Dave think he needs a bat/power bat? Was this area just an off year or a chronic problem? Of the FA's the only guy I would go get is the guy we already have, Moreland. Abreu, carpenter and belt might be too expensive. Not sure where the club next year will be with the cap. What would Dave give up to get Smoak or Bour? I would think that Dave would look at the relief pitcher pile and chavis, swihart and Ock. The owners are also concerned with trading away top prospects as well. I agree with eric I have no idea what Dave does here?
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