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2017 Rule 5 Watch (Update: Beeks, Buttrey, Shepherd added)
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 19, 2017 13:42:20 GMT -5
Looking at all the names to be added and I'm starting to wonder how safe Henry Owens' 40-man spot is. He does have one option year left, but it's tough to use a spot on a player who right now appears to be a long, long way from contributing.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2017 9:58:09 GMT -5
Please Add: Jalen Beeks Ty Buttrey Kyle Martin
Maybe Add: Rusney Castillo Danny Mars Mike Miller Jake Romanski Aneury Tavaraz Jantzen Witte
Hope For The Best: Victor Acosta Yoan Aybar Trey Ball Jordan Betts Jake Cosart Pat Goetze Justin Haley Bryan Hudson Dedgar Jimenez Isaias Lucena Mike Meyers Jhon Nunez Chandler Shepherd Teddy Stankiewicz Hildemaro Requena
Not a big deal if the get selected: Danny Bethea Harrison Cooney Emanuel De Jesus Jhonathan Diaz Daniel Gonzalez Taylor Grover Raiwinson Lameda Algenis Martinez Kevin McAvoy Daniel McGrath Joseph Monge Yankory Pimentel Jordan Procyshen Jeremy Rivera Josh Smith Cole Sturgeon Carlos Tovar
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2017 9:59:03 GMT -5
Looking at all the names to be added and I'm starting to wonder how safe Henry Owens' 40-man spot is. He does have one option year left, but it's tough to use a spot on a player who right now appears to be a long, long way from contributing. Could he convert to a reliever? Otherwise I agree.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 5, 2017 23:20:06 GMT -5
Edited to clarify a possible August bat addition, fix Johnson's status, add the possibility of a Ross non-tender, and to clarify Tavarez's status.
The three obvious adds are:
Jalen Beeks Bryce Brentz Chandler Shepherd*
You really want the roster to include an OF who can be optioned and recalled. Ideally, they would trade for someone a bit better than Aneury Tavarez, assuming they can find an established AAAA guy who is blocked even as a backup. Tavarez will be a minor league FA if they don't add him, and hence almost certainly gone, but we'll leave him off for now.
Here's how the roster shapes up numbers-wise, before we make any trades or fill holes. "-O" is destined to be on option.
SP (7): Sale, Pomeranz, Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, Wright, Johnson [Fister, FA] SP-O (4):Beeks, Velazquez, Elias, Owens RP (7): Kimbrel, Smith, Barnes, Workman, Kelly, Thornburg, Hembree [Reed, Abad, Boyer, FA] RP-O (4 or 5): Ross (if he isn't non-tendered), Scott, Taylor, Maddox, Shepherd [N. Ramirez, Martin, DFA] C (3): Vazquez, Leon, Swihart 1B/DH (1): H. Ramirez [Moreland, FA] 1B/DH-O (1): Travis INF (5): Pedroia, Bogaerts, Devers; Holt, Marrero [Nunez, FA; Rutledge, Selsky DFA] INF-O (2): Hernandez, Lin OF (4): Betts, Bradley, Benintendi; Brentz [Young, FA]
That's 38 or 39. So there's room for Owens.
They'll want to later add four players: a 1B, a LHR, Nunez, and the aforementioned OF they can option (who could be Tavarez as guy # 39 or 40).
Of the above guys, Swihart and Marrero are obvious trade bait, and Hembree nearly as much so. The first two are out of options and have no roster spot, while Hembree, if they acquire a LHR, is 7th on the depth chart for 6 spots, and will be 8th when Thornburg returns. And for the last guy in the pen when they have injuries, there's somewhere between four and six solid arms in AAA (depending on whether Ross is still in the organization, and whether you count Beeks). Given his velocity and years of control left, Hembree actually has some trade value.
Adding four and subtracting 3 would give you 39 or 40. I don't think you can count on a multi-player deal, so if they tender Ross there doesn't seem to be room for Buttrey (or anyone else), who in any case is back in AA and not pitching that well. If they do non-tender Ross, then that opens up a spot for a Rule 5 pick, Buttrey, Tavarez (as protection against not getting another OF), or a dark horse, or for keeping Hembree at least until ST.
In theory there is a crunch this September, since they'll want to get Beeks and Brentz on the roster, have Smith and Elias coming off the 60-day DL, and have only Ramirez, Martin, and Selsky to DFA (Rutledge is already on the 60). I'm pretty sure that they can choose to leave Elias on the 60 at the end of his rehab, though.
If an injury opens up a spot on the 25, and they go after Bruce on 8/31 when he'd fit under the cap, or a dirt cheap bat like Nava earlier in August, then they need to clear a spot on the 40, and there's nothing left that's obvious. The best option seems to be Taylor to the 60.
*Edit, Shepherd note: He's had two stretches where he's been absolutely killed and hit hard respectively, 5 games in late April / early May, and his last 6 outings, yielding a combined .348 / .410 / .507 with an 8.10 ERA. In his other 16 games, he has 37 K and 7 BB in 27.1 IP while yielding .228 / .275 / .366 and a 2.31 ERA. He clearly has the stuff to contribute at the MLB level next year; he just needs consistency.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 6, 2017 5:08:42 GMT -5
I'm not sold that the Sox add Brentz to the 40 man roster this year, despite his great year in AAA. Who knows what they think of his great year. They may look at him and see a 28/29 year old outfielder who has mastered the AAA level but may never be good enough to even be a bench option on a major league team. Hopefully for Brentz, that isn't the case.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 6, 2017 8:07:28 GMT -5
I'm not sold that the Sox add Brentz to the 40 man roster this year, despite his great year in AAA. Who knows what they think of his great year. They may look at him and see a 28/29 year old outfielder who has mastered the AAA level but may never be good enough to even be a bench option on a major league team. Hopefully for Brentz, that isn't the case. No, no, no. They tweaked his hitting mechanics, giving him a toe tap for his timing. And there's no such thing as a guy who dominates AAA and doesn't even get a chance to show that it translates to MLB. Jose Bautista had 0.0 career WAR at age 28.
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 6, 2017 10:15:28 GMT -5
A lot of the tough decisions have already been made (eg with Lin, Callahan, Ysla, Bautista)
I'd like to see Brentz added, since he can play both corners (and a backup CF isn't important to this team). I dont think we head into 2018 with Brentz-Lin-Holt the backup OF though. And if they didn't like Tavarez enough to add him once, nothing he's done post-injury has changed their minds.
Lin was a 'probably not' for me and now already on the 40. Go figure.
Beeks obviously a lock. Room for one of Shepherd, Buttrey, Owens. If I remember right the Red Sox always seem to add fewer than we expect.
I'll be a little bummed if Owens/Ball get picked and figure it out for another team.
I think Moreland could be back one way or another.
Marrero staying on 40 man I'm not sure about. They have Devers then Marco, Holt, Lin. What are the chances you would ever be on option 5 or 6 at third base???
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Post by wkdbigpckfan on Aug 6, 2017 10:25:34 GMT -5
I thought Johnson and Robbie Ross were out of options
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Post by despo19 on Aug 7, 2017 9:24:54 GMT -5
The Sox will have 7 openings on the 40-man at the end of this season with Chris Young, Fernando Abad, Mitch Moreland, Blaine Boyer, Doug Fister, Eduardo Nunez, and Addison Reed hitting Free Agency. Stephen Wright, Robbie Ross, Carson Smith, Roenis Elias, Tyler Thornburg, and Josh Rutledge will all have to be added once they return from the DL. There are also a number of prospects eligible for the Rule 5 draft in December that could be added. Who do you think will be added and how many spots will be left to sign free agents?
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Post by ryan24 on Aug 7, 2017 10:26:38 GMT -5
Young is probably gone. Abad is probably gone. Moreland depending on the price I think stays. Boyer is gone. Fister will be an interesting decision. Johnson, Owens and wright will be the keys. Can't keep them all. I think it will depend on the health of wright. Nunez and Reed will come back depending on the money. But, The money is going to be too much most likely. Wright depending on his health, Ross, Smith and Thornburg should be back. Elias and Rutledge I think are gone. I think N Ramierz and Martin are gone. Haley, Buttrey and Taverz may be added of the rule 5 people. That comes back to 39. Hembree and scott will be in the mix to get traded for something. Lots of decisions.
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Post by despo19 on Aug 7, 2017 12:06:59 GMT -5
I think you hit the nail on the head with most of those guys. Only one I'm not sure about is Moreland. Sam Travis has shown he is ready, I don't see the Sox keeping Hanley, Moreland, and Travis next season. They will need another lefty in the pen if they let Abad go which I think they will, so that extra spot will help them get a bigger arm than Scott
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 7, 2017 12:32:51 GMT -5
A reminder that players are to be discussed respectfully. I'd kindly suggest that omitting players from a post or categorizing under "don't protect" or similar might be more tactful than a "who?" category, etc.
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Post by jmei on Aug 7, 2017 12:33:46 GMT -5
Merged in some posts from a related thread in the trade proposal subforum.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 7, 2017 12:36:24 GMT -5
I thought Johnson and Robbie Ross were out of options Johnson will be out of options, but I don't think Ross will be. He was only down for 13 days his first option this year, and his second option was rescinded because he was hurt while in the majors before being optioned. Presumably Ross is done for the year, so he won't burn an option this season and will still have one remaining.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 7, 2017 14:00:41 GMT -5
There may be a chance that Ross Jr. gets non-tendered because of the injury. He'll be worth over 2 million in arbitration. That might not be worth it for the Sox to pick up.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 7, 2017 16:20:55 GMT -5
Are the guys running out of options that don't have a spot on the roster next year (Swihart/Johnson) locks for the 40 man?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 7, 2017 17:04:01 GMT -5
Are the guys running out of options that don't have a spot on the roster next year (Swihart/Johnson) locks for the 40 man? Definitely not.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 7, 2017 22:41:48 GMT -5
Are the guys running out of options that don't have a spot on the roster next year (Swihart/Johnson) locks for the 40 man? Definitely not. As I said above, Swihart is obvious trade bait. But there should be room on the 25 for Johnson at the start of the season (I knew he was out of options and forgot and listed him wrongly above; that's fixed now.) If they sign or trade for a LHR, they've got 15 pitchers who either have no option left or are too good to send down. The standard acceptable number of such guys to bring to ST is 13; it's not 12 because it's extremely rare that they all stay healthy throughout ST. Thornburg almost definitely starts the season on rehab, for a while, so that's 14. So might Wright. And as I speculated above they may well trade Hembree just to make room for new guys. If you consider both of those as 50/50 chances, that's 13. And then someone gets hurt. So I think Johnson very likely opens the season as the long man and second lefty. There's a good chance they can keep him around for quite a while if not all year. If they're unusually healthy, they may need to move him at some point.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 7, 2017 23:05:20 GMT -5
Will Bryce Brentz have enough minor league service time to become a minor league free agent after this season?
I know some team could pick him up with the Rule 5 draft anyways, but the Sox have to be losing control of Brentz regardless of they don't add him to the 40 man roster in the next 3 months.....
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 7, 2017 23:37:19 GMT -5
Will Bryce Brentz have enough minor league service time to become a minor league free agent after this season? I know some team could pick him up with the Rule 5 draft anyways, but the Sox have to be losing control of Brentz regardless of they don't add him to the 40 man roster in the next 3 months..... Yes. That information is in the Wiki link at the top of the page. Much invaluable stuff there, and kudos to those who have compiled it. Being an mlfa has priority over the rule 5. I think protecting him is a no-brainer. If they don't, some team will almost certainly offer him an MLB contract.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 8, 2017 1:32:02 GMT -5
Will Bryce Brentz have enough minor league service time to become a minor league free agent after this season? I know some team could pick him up with the Rule 5 draft anyways, but the Sox have to be losing control of Brentz regardless of they don't add him to the 40 man roster in the next 3 months..... Yes. That information is in the Wiki link at the top of the page. Much invaluable stuff there, and kudos to those who have compiled it. Being an mlfa has priority over the rule 5. I think protecting him is a no-brainer. If they don't, some team will almost certainly offer him an MLB contract. I had no idea that link even existed until now. Yes he's a free agent. If the Sox don't add him to the 40 man roster by the time Pawtucket's season ends, then I think we all will get a sense in how the Sox are reevaluating Bryce's new adjustment and whether they put any stock into it.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 8, 2017 6:10:29 GMT -5
MLFA and rule 5 information is also available at the bottom of every player page.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 8, 2017 14:52:19 GMT -5
Yes. That information is in the Wiki link at the top of the page. Much invaluable stuff there, and kudos to those who have compiled it. Being an mlfa has priority over the rule 5. I think protecting him is a no-brainer. If they don't, some team will almost certainly offer him an MLB contract. I had no idea that link even existed until now. Yes he's a free agent. If the Sox don't add him to the 40 man roster by the time Pawtucket's season ends, then I think we all will get a sense in how the Sox are reevaluating Bryce's new adjustment and whether they put any stock into it. Well, he was hitting .162 / .205 / .286 in 112 PA on May 19, when he took the weekend off plus an off day Monday to incorporate the toe tap. In 275 PA with the new mechanics, he's at .324 / .400 / .656. You'd have to be clinically insane not to want to see how this plays in MLB. Thanks to Alex Speier for pointing out the latter split. Google verifies that the split coincides with the adjustment.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 8, 2017 15:16:39 GMT -5
I had no idea that link even existed until now. Yes he's a free agent. If the Sox don't add him to the 40 man roster by the time Pawtucket's season ends, then I think we all will get a sense in how the Sox are reevaluating Bryce's new adjustment and whether they put any stock into it. Well, he was hitting .162 / .205 / .286 in 112 PA on May 19, when he took the weekend off plus an off day Monday to incorporate the toe tap. In 275 PA with the new mechanics, he's at .324 / .400 / .656. You'd have to be clinically insane not to want to see how this plays in MLB. Thanks to Alex Speier for pointing out the latter split. Google verifies that the split coincides with the adjustment. It kind of makes me wonder why they didn't try it sooner when no one was hitting. I also wonder why he's not getting some time at 1B.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 8, 2017 15:35:08 GMT -5
Well, he was hitting .162 / .205 / .286 in 112 PA on May 19, when he took the weekend off plus an off day Monday to incorporate the toe tap. In 275 PA with the new mechanics, he's at .324 / .400 / .656. You'd have to be clinically insane not to want to see how this plays in MLB. Thanks to Alex Speier for pointing out the latter split. Google verifies that the split coincides with the adjustment. It kind of makes me wonder why they didn't try it sooner when no one was hitting. I also wonder why he's not getting some time at 1B. Because once he comes up, he has to stay up. And that would have meant DFAing Chris Young at some point, and he's a very popular clubhouse guy, and more importantly, if you then have an injury, the next guy on the OF depth chart is Aneury Tavarez. Keep in in mind that Holt, who is perfectly OK as a 4th OFer when healthy, was hurt most of that time. Yeah, I also wonder why they don't try him at 1B. Maybe later. Meanwhile, they can now put Hanley on the DL at any time and, between the 10 days on the DL and a rehab stint, hold him off the 25 until 9/1. If they did it now, however, it would be a 12 day rehab stint, which would likely drive Hanley crazy. You could see it happening in a week, when they start the next homestand.
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