SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2017 Rule 5 Watch (Update: Beeks, Buttrey, Shepherd added)
|
Post by jimed14 on Aug 8, 2017 15:48:18 GMT -5
Didn't think about it needing to be permanent. But they've gotta try before he's gone, right? Guess it'll be September if they can find a 40 man spot.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 8, 2017 16:03:36 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 8, 2017 17:31:02 GMT -5
Hanley is playing tomorrow and the Sox said a DL trip isn't likely for Hanley. The earliest I see Brentz here is September, that's if the Sox even add him to the 40 man roster.
|
|
|
Post by geezergeek on Aug 10, 2017 21:59:13 GMT -5
The sox are bereft of power at 1st Travis has not demonstrated any power and Ockimy is to far away.). Could Brentz be converted to 1B?
|
|
|
Post by geezergeek on Aug 10, 2017 22:06:57 GMT -5
The Sox will have 7 openings on the 40-man at the end of this season with Chris Young, Fernando Abad, Mitch Moreland, Blaine Boyer, Doug Fister, Eduardo Nunez, and Addison Reed hitting Free Agency. Stephen Wright, Robbie Ross, Carson Smith, Roenis Elias, Tyler Thornburg, and Josh Rutledge will all have to be added once they return from the DL. There are also a number of prospects eligible for the Rule 5 draft in December that could be added. Who do you think will be added and how many spots will be left to sign free agents? Wright and Thornburg should still be on the disabled list.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,931
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 10, 2017 22:25:37 GMT -5
The sox are bereft of power at 1st Travis has not demonstrated any power and Ockimy is to far away.). Could Brentz be converted to 1B? They have him working out there. The Sox will have 7 openings on the 40-man at the end of this season with Chris Young, Fernando Abad, Mitch Moreland, Blaine Boyer, Doug Fister, Eduardo Nunez, and Addison Reed hitting Free Agency. Stephen Wright, Robbie Ross, Carson Smith, Roenis Elias, Tyler Thornburg, and Josh Rutledge will all have to be added once they return from the DL. There are also a number of prospects eligible for the Rule 5 draft in December that could be added. Who do you think will be added and how many spots will be left to sign free agents? Wright and Thornburg should still be on the disabled list. There is no DL in the off-season, since they're not playing any games. All players on the 60-day must either be activated or waived when rosters are set for the Rule 5.
|
|
|
Post by widewordofsport on Aug 16, 2017 10:51:56 GMT -5
Brentz is really tough since he's out of options. I mentioned in another post, would have to be added this fall, then make the team out of camp or clear waivers (or traded for some mediocre prospect).
If they try to keep Moreland, which I wouldn't be surprised, it makes it tough to keep Brentz on the 25 unless they really like him as 4th OF. Sox usually don't like to go into a year relying that much on a guy without any track record of success, right?
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 16, 2017 11:51:11 GMT -5
Brentz is a minor league free agent this offseason. If he's not added to the 40, he can just walk.
It makes the most sense to add him and see how it looks this September. If he gets beat for a spot on the roster next year, you trade or waive him.
As we discussed on the podcast, the 2018 team could, in theory, have both Brentz and Castillo on it, but you'd be relying on Hanley to take the bulk of the 1B innings, with Brentz learning to play 1B and back the position up. I doubt that's where they'd go with it though.
Tavarez is actually in the same situation - he's a MLFA if they don't protect him (or re-sign him to a minor-league deal). Given that he's failed to impress (or stay healthy) in Pawtucket, my guess is they take their chances.
At this point, I protect Beeks (if he's not already added to come up in September) and maybe Buttrey (who's having a great August after getting hit hard in his first three outings after back in Portland again) and Shepherd. I assume Brentz will be added in September. It was a short look, but nothing I saw out of Mars this weekend indicates to me that he's a guy they'll protect.
At any rate, it looks like what was once a logjam is now much more thinned out, even just from the trade of Callahan and Bautista.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Aug 16, 2017 16:30:25 GMT -5
These is room on the 40-man to add Brentz in September (even if Carson Smith comes back, there are at least a few fungible guys I'm comfortable DFAing if necessary (Steve Selsky, Noe Ramirez)), and worst case scenario is that you have to DFA Brentz in the offseason, which puts you in the same place you'd have been otherwise, given Brentz's pending MiLB free agency.
Next year, even if you assume Moreland comes back, with Young a free agent, the fourth outfield spot is open. I'd be fine with Brentz and Castillo competing for it (though the front office might want to add another name or two to that competition).
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 16, 2017 16:52:16 GMT -5
Selsky was put on the DL today with a concussion. If that lingers and they want to get tricky, they could call him up to 60-day DL him. I know we've wondered here, in the past, if they could do that, but I believe the Rangers did something like that last year?
But yeah, there's plenty of room on the 40 to add who they want to add, at any rate.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,931
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 17, 2017 13:46:12 GMT -5
Selsky was put on the DL today with a concussion. If that lingers and they want to get tricky, they could call him up to 60-day DL him. I know we've wondered here, in the past, if they could do that, but I believe the Rangers did something like that last year? But yeah, there's plenty of room on the 40 to add who they want to add, at any rate. Well, with Noe Ramirez DFA'd and Elias activated from the 60-day, the fungible guys are down to Selsky and Kyle Martin. I think they have to add Brentz and Beeks for September, and then there's Carson Smith if he looks capable of contributing. Ben Taylor had a single rehab appearance 10 days ago. Maybe he's headed back for the 60, but if not I can't see how they can get Brentz, Beeks, and Smith on the roster without giving up something of value. Except Fister, of course. It's hard to regard him as significantly better than Johnson, Velazquez, or Beeks, and 8 SP should be enough. But they seem to be irrationally smitten with him.
|
|
|
Post by ryan24 on Aug 30, 2017 5:45:10 GMT -5
Looks like of the top 30 prospects Beeks, Taverez, and Shepard are the only 3 eligible for rule 5, if I got it right from the profiles. Beeks looks like the only one to put on the 40 man. After that you can make your case for Buttrey, Mars, Brentz and Ball.
|
|
|
Post by despo19 on Aug 30, 2017 8:37:48 GMT -5
With legitimate cases for about 4-5 guys to get added to the 40-man, where will those spots come from? I can't see the Sox DFAing Fister with how he's pitched of late. Could we see a guy like Swihart get DFAed with the hopes that his ankle will scare teams off?
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Aug 30, 2017 9:01:52 GMT -5
Well, someone like Tavarez or Shepherd won't be added for September, if they are at all. If they're added in the offseason, players like Fister, Reed, and Nunez will all be free agents, opening up those roster spots.
Swihart would be claimed in an instant.
|
|
|
Post by ryan24 on Aug 30, 2017 9:26:34 GMT -5
Well, someone like Tavarez or Shepherd won't be added for September, if they are at all. If they're added in the offseason, players like Fister, Reed, and Nunez will all be free agents, opening up those roster spots. Swihart would be claimed in an instant. You bet Swihart would be claimed in a NY minute .Nunez I think strongly will stay. I think they would like to keep Reed, but not sure how much $$ it will take. Fister is going to be interesting with the group of 6-9 starters they have. Who goes and who stays. Owens, Johnson, Velez, fister, and elias.. Oh I forgot Wright.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 30, 2017 14:40:03 GMT -5
There really isn't a 40-man crunch at this point. Young, Abad, Moreland, Boyer, Fister, Nunez, Reed, and Davis are all free agents. They're probably only going to add a couple guys - I think Brentz gets added for September, Beeks might as well (and he'll be protected if not). From there the candidates to be added are Buttrey, Haley, Mars, Shepherd, Tavarez, and I'm not sure if they'll add any, to be honest.
Something Ian and I discussed on the podcast that'll get released tonight hopefully - Owens going to the AFL might be so they can continue to evaluate whether to keep him on the 40-man. I actually think his going to Arizona makes it slightly more likely he gets DFA this offseason in that they'll be approaching a larger sample size in his new delivery, so it makes it potentially possible whereas before I thought they'd for sure give him some of next year. There is definitely an issue presented by guys like Shepherd and Haley in that it only makes sense to have so many fungible middle relief arms on the 40-man. We've seen Jerez and Ysla protected and then DFA the past couple of years, and while that's fine if the roster spot is there, it probably doesn't make sense to, say, DFA someone to protect Shepherd or Haley, IMO.
|
|
|
Post by ryan24 on Aug 30, 2017 16:05:54 GMT -5
There really isn't a 40-man crunch at this point. Young, Abad, Moreland, Boyer, Fister, Nunez, Reed, and Davis are all free agents. They're probably only going to add a couple guys - I think Brentz gets added for September, Beeks might as well (and he'll be protected if not). From there the candidates to be added are Buttrey, Haley, Mars, Shepherd, Tavarez, and I'm not sure if they'll add any, to be honest. Something Ian and I discussed on the podcast that'll get released tonight hopefully - Owens going to the AFL might be so they can continue to evaluate whether to keep him on the 40-man. I actually think his going to Arizona makes it slightly more likely he gets DFA this offseason in that they'll be approaching a larger sample size in his new delivery, so it makes it potentially possible whereas before I thought they'd for sure give him some of next year. There is definitely an issue presented by guys like Shepherd and Haley in that it only makes sense to have so many fungible middle relief arms on the 40-man. We've seen Jerez and Ysla protected and then DFA the past couple of years, and while that's fine if the roster spot is there, it probably doesn't make sense to, say, DFA someone to protect Shepherd or Haley, IMO. Totally agree. Owens I have serious doubts of whether the sox keep him on the 40 .
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,931
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 4, 2017 15:16:53 GMT -5
I want to question the assumption that there's zero chance they add Rusney Castillo to the 40-man. I think it'll happen, in fact.
I think they plan to go over the tax limit (probably by signing Eric Hosmer, a move I'd endorse). In which case, the actual cost for adding Castillo is the tax on his salary, which will be $2.7M.
.395 / .422 / .663 Rusney vs. LHP this year .290 / .393 / .600 Brentz vs. LHP
Clay Davenport has them with identical .262 MLEs. Rusney's much better defensively. $2.7M is about 3 runs, and it's easy to imagine him being 3 runs better than Brentz as a 4th OFer.
You have the option in ST of optioning Castillo and keeping Brentz for the Chris Young roster spot, or dealing Brentz. If you do the former, you have hugely increased your OF depth. I'd spend $2.7M to have that depth, plus the possibility that Castillo ends up as the 4th OFer.
And I think that it's very likely someone will take him in the Rule 5. He looks like an average MLB CFer right now, and those are worth about $16M. (Of course, if that happens, it saves them his $12M salary ...)
Note that I've already pointed out that they need an OF on the roster that they can shuttle to Pawtucket, and that they should either protect Tavarez or trade for someone better. Well, you're not going to trade for anyone nearly as good.
A guy as good as Castillo that still has options left and can be had for $2.7M in cash upfront, and nothing in the way of talent? That's a no-brainer move to make, even if it means you give up a decent chance of recovering a $12M sunk cost.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Sept 5, 2017 8:53:25 GMT -5
I moved some Brentz-centric discussion to the Brentz thread. Let's keep this thread to Rule 5 candidates. Thanks.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,931
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 8, 2017 3:27:46 GMT -5
There may be a chance that Ross Jr. gets non-tendered because of the injury. He'll be worth over 2 million in arbitration. That might not be worth it for the Sox to pick up. He didn't burn a year of service time, so he can't expect a raise from his $1.85M. But they might still non-tender him anyway.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,931
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 8, 2017 4:07:38 GMT -5
Revised take, with changes in red. Additions now in bold.
At present they have 40 + 5 on the 60-day DL, but they also have 8 impending FA.
SP (7): Sale, Pomeranz, Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, Wright, Johnson [Fister, FA] SP-O (4):Beeks, Velazquez, Elias, Owens RP (7): Kimbrel, Smith, Workman, Kelly, Barnes, Thornburg, Hembree [Reed, Abad, Boyer, FA] RP-O (4): Scott, Taylor, Maddox, Shepherd [Ross, non-tendered and re-signed] C (3): Vazquez, Leon, Swihart 1B/DH (1): H. Ramirez [Moreland, FA] 1B/DH-O (1): Travis INF (5): Pedroia, Bogaerts, Devers; Holt, Marrero [Nunez, FA; Rutledge DFA] INF-O (2): Hernandez, Lin OF (4): Betts, Bradley, Benintendi; Brentz [Young, Davis FA] OF-O (1): Castillo
That's 39.
Offseason moves:
Trade Price, re-sign Fister.
Sign Hosmer or re-sign Moreland (-> 40).
Sign or trade for a LH setup guy and trade Hembree. That still leaves you with 13 pitchers you want on the roster if healthy (14 including Thornburg), which is the usual number going into ST, and in the unlikely event you have to deal one at some point, you still have Scott as an MLB-caliber guy in Pawtucket. As a general rule, the 14th guy on your depth chart sees plenty of MLB action. Ross could bounce back and compete for that role as well; there should be room on the 40 for him after ST.
Try to re-sign Nunez; if successful, trade or DFA Marrero.
Note that this leaves you with 14 guys for the 13 position players. If you didn't sign Nunez, once everyone is healthy, you DFA Marrero and hope he sneaks through waivers. If you did sign Nunez, and everyone is healthy, it's much trickier, with Swihart, Holt, and Brentz all candidates to be moved in the short run. But I think holding onto your depth through ST is the smart thing to do.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 8, 2017 5:51:03 GMT -5
There may be a chance that Ross Jr. gets non-tendered because of the injury. He'll be worth over 2 million in arbitration. That might not be worth it for the Sox to pick up. He didn't burn a year of service time, so he can't expect a raise from his $1.85M. But they might still non-tender him anyway. I believe you're owed a raise in arbitration if you went to arbitration the previous year. It might not be much of a raise to like 2.05 million or something but still a raise. Either way I'm 99 percent sure he's getting non-tendered with the injury he suffered this year.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 8, 2017 5:51:23 GMT -5
Why on Earth would they want to tender Holt ?
|
|
|
Post by chrisfromnc on Sept 8, 2017 9:07:55 GMT -5
Offseason moves: Trade Price, re-sign Fister.I like this idea too, but I wonder how much the recency bias is impacting me. I am on the Fister bandwagon and don't intend to give up my seat. Just curious, if you were Dave Dombrowski and you could do a fair deal one way or another would you eat more of his salary or supplement with additional minor league players to offset the amount of his salary you'd be required to eat?
This assumes that most every team would not value his expected contribution at 31m/yr either with our without the opt out, which is pretty obvious.
(Mods, apologies for the thread drift as I realize this post has very little to do with Rule 5 matters.)
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 8, 2017 9:44:10 GMT -5
The Sox can't realistically trade Price this off-season.
I'd welcome a resigning of Fister for one year only. Anything beyond that, well good luck Fister and thanks for the second half this year.
|
|
|