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How long should the Red Sox wait on JBJ? (This Year)
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Post by jclmontana on Jun 19, 2018 16:23:33 GMT -5
The boring, obvious answer is really the correct one, I think. They should hold on to him until moving on makes the team better. However, the question of how the team could get better by jettisoning JBJ is interesting because the scenarios are so varied. But that question is dependent on who is available at what price, so pretty hard to discuss rationally. I do think that his inconsistency at the plate obscures how valuable he is defensively and over the long term. With that said, I would be fine if he was moved in the right deal
Personally, I think the roster has too many players who are inconsistent, or have yet to prove they can be depended on going forward. JBJ’s offensive streakiness is only tolerable when there are others to pick up the slack when he goes stone cold. A JBJ replacement who is overall slightly less talented, but more consistent, plus a second player with value, might be a better situation for the team than JBJ’s awesome defense and streaky offense.
But what I propose is a pretty narrow needle to thread for an in-season trade. Hard to trust media reports of JBJ being arrogant, resistant to coaching, and stubborn, but it seems a shame that JBJ can’t adjust his offensive approach to match his skills
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Post by carmenfanzone on Jun 20, 2018 14:02:01 GMT -5
Could the Red Sox wait until later in the year and then add Castillo to the roster and stay under the cap? (I am assuming only a pro rated portion of his salary would count like if you trade for a player but do not know if that is true) Could they do it in such a way that Castillo could also be available in the playoffs?
Castillo could then start in center against lefties and some righties and Bradley could sub in for defense if the Red Sox were ahead.
If possible might this be a way to get some value out of Castillo and avoid having to give up other assets to get a Bradley replacement this year?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 20, 2018 14:08:02 GMT -5
Even if they could do that, they won't because then they'd be stuck with his contract on the CBT calculation until it ends.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 20, 2018 14:18:50 GMT -5
I hate to say it because I'm a huge Bradley guy, but he doesn't have much time left. He either starts hitting or he is going to force them to move him. Given the payroll restrictions you almost have to move his salary to get a replacement.
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Post by bosoxx2 on Jun 20, 2018 14:45:35 GMT -5
Bradley can throw strikes from centerfield at 103 mph; why can’t he throw strikes as a relief pitcher.
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Post by Coreno on Jun 20, 2018 19:35:31 GMT -5
Bradley can throw strikes from centerfield at 103 mph; why can’t he throw strikes as a relief pitcher. No.
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Post by dmaineah on Jun 27, 2018 10:41:19 GMT -5
Perfect time for him to get hot. I just hope he can keep it going till the trade deadline, maybe he'll raise his value and he & the Sox can fool somebody into giving them a decent return in a trade.
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Post by huskies15 on Jun 27, 2018 10:46:05 GMT -5
The only way a trade of JBJ makes any sense is if a cost-controlled CF is coming back. Otherwise, what's your lineup? Benintendi in CF and Martinez in LF has not been a good defensive combination. Not to mention, who do you want as the DH in that scenario? The bench is bereft of hitting.
JBJ offers more to the Red Sox than they would get in a trade for him.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 27, 2018 10:47:19 GMT -5
Dude. How much is Bradley paying in rent for that space he lives in your brain? This reached absurdity six years ago when you were insisting that Bryce Brentz was the superior player because of minor league RBI totals.
Eventually, as with all base ball men, Jackie Bradley will no longer be good at base ball. So I hope when that time comes you will have some peace.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 27, 2018 11:02:06 GMT -5
Perfect time for him to get hot. I just hope he can keep it going till the trade deadline, maybe he'll raise his value and he & the Sox can fool somebody into giving them a decent return in a trade. Hate to break the news to you, but if JBJ hits the Sox are keeping him. A JBJ who hits and is elite defensively is a very valuable player. If he doesn't hit, then the Sox will likely try to get a guy who can play some CF at the deadline. If he doesn't hit it doesn't exactly help his trade value. I have no idea if he's going to hit consistently enough over the remainder of the season. I don't like waiting thru 5 months of non-hitting just for that one hot scorching month, but if his mechanics are allowing him to hit the ball hard as he has been doing that's a good sign, but to me it only really means something if he can sustain most of it for an extended period of time. And if he can, then it makes no sense to waste bullets to try to get another CF, especially when Pedroia's status is in doubt, they just lost a starter in Wright and Pomeranz doesn't look great, and the bench needs help and the bullpen needs a high leverage reliever. In other words a JBJ who is actually hitting some or better is not a guy needing to be replaced. With limited funds and prospects to deal you don't replace JBJ when he's actually contributing on both sides of the ball.
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Post by jimmydugan on Jun 27, 2018 11:05:39 GMT -5
During the game last night, Alex Speier mentioned that JBJ had great batted ball numbers in June which sounded a lot like the Baseball Savant link that jimed linked to (I believe he even used the phrase "Quality of Contact + K + BB").
Is it possible to filter these numbers by month? Or is this data listed publicly somewhere else that anyone is aware of?
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Post by dmaineah on Jun 27, 2018 11:20:02 GMT -5
Perfect time for him to get hot. I just hope he can keep it going till the trade deadline, maybe he'll raise his value and he & the Sox can fool somebody into giving them a decent return in a trade. Hate to break the news to you, but if JBJ hits the Sox are keeping him. A JBJ who hits and is elite defensively is a very valuable player. If he doesn't hit, then the Sox will likely try to get a guy who can play some CF at the deadline. If he doesn't hit it doesn't exactly help his trade value. I have no idea if he's going to hit consistently enough over the remainder of the season. I don't like waiting thru 5 months of non-hitting just for that one hot scorching month, but if his mechanics are allowing him to hit the ball hard as he has been doing that's a good sign, but to me it only really means something if he can sustain most of it for an extended period of time. And if he can, then it makes no sense to waste bullets to try to get another CF, especially when Pedroia's status is in doubt, they just lost a starter in Wright and Pomeranz doesn't look great, and the bench needs help and the bullpen needs a high leverage reliever. In other words a JBJ who is actually hitting some or better is not a guy needing to be replaced. With limited funds and prospects to deal you don't replace JBJ when he's actually contributing on both sides of the ball. Its been a year. Since last June 24th he has had 110 hits in 513 abs (a 214 avg) with 143 Ks & 43 BBs & he's barely hit 200 since the all star break last year (.201avg, 451abs 91h 132Ks 39bb)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 27, 2018 11:53:22 GMT -5
Hate to break the news to you, but if JBJ hits the Sox are keeping him. A JBJ who hits and is elite defensively is a very valuable player. If he doesn't hit, then the Sox will likely try to get a guy who can play some CF at the deadline. If he doesn't hit it doesn't exactly help his trade value. I have no idea if he's going to hit consistently enough over the remainder of the season. I don't like waiting thru 5 months of non-hitting just for that one hot scorching month, but if his mechanics are allowing him to hit the ball hard as he has been doing that's a good sign, but to me it only really means something if he can sustain most of it for an extended period of time. And if he can, then it makes no sense to waste bullets to try to get another CF, especially when Pedroia's status is in doubt, they just lost a starter in Wright and Pomeranz doesn't look great, and the bench needs help and the bullpen needs a high leverage reliever. In other words a JBJ who is actually hitting some or better is not a guy needing to be replaced. With limited funds and prospects to deal you don't replace JBJ when he's actually contributing on both sides of the ball. Its been a year, he's barely hit 200 since the all star break last year C'mon. You get the point I was trying to make. A season is 6 months long and JBJ is usually good for one spectacular month so if in Year 1 his great month is in May and in Year 2 his great month is in August it doesn't change the point I was trying to make. And worse it gets further away from where I'm going with my point. He has made a mechanical change that has allowed him to make hard contact with the baseball and finally the results are starting to show. Some people think he's "cured". I'm not convinced until I see a longer period of time where he's consistently hitting - and to me that doesn't mean hitting .400 over a month. I'd rather see him hit .280 over three months - without months that look like .180, .480, .180 but are more like .300, .260, .280 or something like that. I want to see consistency. I know players have bad months here and there, but in JBJ's case I definitely think I need to see consistency with the bat over a longer period to be convinced that the changes he has made is truly working. But meanwhile I'm willing to give him the chance. The defense is certainly much better with him around. So I'm perfectly willing to let him ride it out and see if he can continue while the Sox get supplemental help in case he can't (a good insurance policy is not a bad thing to have), but the whole "Get rid of him stuff" is kind of silly. Once the season is over, if he is still inconsistent, I'm perfectly fine with getting a better alternative, but in this market right now, there are very few better alternatives, if any really.
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Post by patford on Jun 27, 2018 12:31:52 GMT -5
Based on his college and minor league stats I have always believed JBJ would hit. It still would not surprise me if he hit .300 some year. Of course I always believed Sandoval would hit based on his track record. And eventually he proved me right. It just didn't happen until he went back to SF.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 27, 2018 13:01:54 GMT -5
I knew I smelt a rat in the Curtis Granderson thread in the trade forum. Lol
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Post by jackiebradleyjrjr on Jun 27, 2018 15:53:24 GMT -5
Hate to break the news to you, but if JBJ hits the Sox are keeping him. A JBJ who hits and is elite defensively is a very valuable player. If he doesn't hit, then the Sox will likely try to get a guy who can play some CF at the deadline. If he doesn't hit it doesn't exactly help his trade value. I have no idea if he's going to hit consistently enough over the remainder of the season. I don't like waiting thru 5 months of non-hitting just for that one hot scorching month, but if his mechanics are allowing him to hit the ball hard as he has been doing that's a good sign, but to me it only really means something if he can sustain most of it for an extended period of time. And if he can, then it makes no sense to waste bullets to try to get another CF, especially when Pedroia's status is in doubt, they just lost a starter in Wright and Pomeranz doesn't look great, and the bench needs help and the bullpen needs a high leverage reliever. In other words a JBJ who is actually hitting some or better is not a guy needing to be replaced. With limited funds and prospects to deal you don't replace JBJ when he's actually contributing on both sides of the ball. Its been a year. Since last June 24th he has had 110 hits in 513 abs (a 214 avg) with 143 Ks & 43 BBs & he's barely hit 200 since the all star break last year (.201avg, 451abs 91h 132Ks 39bb) Hey, how’s Steve Selsky doing? You know, the guy you suggested we should replace JBJ with. Great idea! Oh wait....
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 27, 2018 23:40:56 GMT -5
My comment on an ESPN story that identified fixing CF as DDo's chief task for the rest of the season:
Jackie Bradley, Jr.'s one of the streakiest hitters in MLB and got off to an abysmal start, but he's been on one of his patented tears for the last month. He's just had mind-bogglingly bad luck on balls in play that have held him to a .239 / .327 / .420 line (note how great the Iso and IsoD are). Alex Cora actually talked about how he had stopped reassuring him that he was swinging the bat great because it was getting tiresome ... until he went 6/7, 2B, HR in his last two games. Out of 167 qualifiers, his Hard% in this stretch would rank 43rd best in MLB, his LD% would rank 28th, and his Soft% would rank 4th lowest, but his BABIP would rank 124th. Using Statcast data, conservatively he's swung the bat like a .340 / .420 / .700 hitter in this stretch (which is what he does when he's hot).
So, no. Not a problem. How about Eduardo Nunez with a 634 OPS as the RH bat off the bench and a -29 DRS / 150 G as Pedroia's replacement at 2B?
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 28, 2018 10:55:11 GMT -5
Its been a year. Since last June 24th he has had 110 hits in 513 abs (a 214 avg) with 143 Ks & 43 BBs & he's barely hit 200 since the all star break last year (.201avg, 451abs 91h 132Ks 39bb) Hey, how’s Steve Selsky doing? You know, the guy you suggested we should replace JBJ with. Great idea! Oh wait.... Every once in a while there is a feeding frenzy here that I don't think is necessary.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 28, 2018 13:01:44 GMT -5
My comment on an ESPN story that identified fixing CF as DDo's chief task for the rest of the season:
Jackie Bradley, Jr.'s one of the streakiest hitters in MLB and got off to an abysmal start, but he's been on one of his patented tears for the last month. He's just had mind-bogglingly bad luck on balls in play that have held him to a .239 / .327 / .420 line (note how great the Iso and IsoD are). Alex Cora actually talked about how he had stopped reassuring him that he was swinging the bat great because it was getting tiresome ... until he went 6/7, 2B, HR in his last two games. Out of 167 qualifiers, his Hard% in this stretch would rank 43rd best in MLB, his LD% would rank 28th, and his Soft% would rank 4th lowest, but his BABIP would rank 124th. Using Statcast data, conservatively he's swung the bat like a .340 / .420 / .700 hitter in this stretch (which is what he does when he's hot).
So, no. Not a problem. How about Eduardo Nunez with a 634 OPS as the RH bat off the bench and a -29 DRS / 150 G as Pedroia's replacement at 2B?
Unless he can become less streaky it is certainly a problem because he won't swing the bat this way for the rest of the season. A lot of players are streaky, but few have the huge highs and lows Bradley does. Nevermind he's been going in the wrong direction for 3 straight years now. I've been a huge Bradley guy for years and thought overtime he'd become more consistent. He hasn't and I have had enough. For a team that wants to win championships you need players you can count on and you can't count on Bradley's bat.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 28, 2018 13:19:00 GMT -5
It's nice that we can count on JBJ's glove though. For as bad as he's been with the bat, he's still at +0.5 fWAR, which is 1 win better than Nunez. He's 2 years away from a 5+ win season and his BABIP should continue to rise from the .256 it is now.
And once again, his expected wOBA is .332 right now according to Statcast data. That's equivalent to about a 110 wRC+.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 28, 2018 13:34:35 GMT -5
My comment on an ESPN story that identified fixing CF as DDo's chief task for the rest of the season: Jackie Bradley, Jr.'s one of the streakiest hitters in MLB and got off to an abysmal start, but he's been on one of his patented tears for the last month. He's just had mind-bogglingly bad luck on balls in play that have held him to a .239 / .327 / .420 line (note how great the Iso and IsoD are). Alex Cora actually talked about how he had stopped reassuring him that he was swinging the bat great because it was getting tiresome ... until he went 6/7, 2B, HR in his last two games. Out of 167 qualifiers, his Hard% in this stretch would rank 43rd best in MLB, his LD% would rank 28th, and his Soft% would rank 4th lowest, but his BABIP would rank 124th. Using Statcast data, conservatively he's swung the bat like a .340 / .420 / .700 hitter in this stretch (which is what he does when he's hot).
So, no. Not a problem. How about Eduardo Nunez with a 634 OPS as the RH bat off the bench and a -29 DRS / 150 G as Pedroia's replacement at 2B?
Unless he can become less streaky it is certainly a problem because he won't swing the bat this way for the rest of the season. A lot of players are streaky, but few have the huge highs and lows Bradley does. Nevermind he's been going in the wrong direction for 3 straight years now. I've been a huge Bradley guy for years and thought overtime he'd become more consistent. He hasn't and I have had enough. For a team that wants to win championships you need players you can count on and you can't count on Bradley's bat. Remember that time the Red Sox won a championship with Mike Napoli? There's a lot of streaky players in baseball and I'm sure you can find a few on every championship team. It's really not that big a deal.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 28, 2018 13:39:04 GMT -5
It's nice that we can count on JBJ's glove though. For as bad as he's been with the bat, he's still at +0.5 fWAR, which is 1 win better than Nunez. He's 2 years away from a 5+ win season and his BABIP should continue to rise from the .256 it is now. And once again, his expected wOBA is .332 right now according to Statcast data. That's equivalent to about a 110 wRC+. His expected wOBAs in the expected wOBA era: 2015 - .289 2016 - .333 2017 - .320 2018 - .332 Bradley is inconsistent in small samples, but if you zoom out, he's actually quite steady. Not a great player, but a solid one.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 28, 2018 14:16:06 GMT -5
So, I had to look wOBA up and found that wOBA is based on traditional stats - 1B, 2B, HR, etc. There are no sabermetrics involved, things are just weighted so that extra base hits count more. I can't figure something out, so I'm asking this sincerely and not being sarcastic or snarky - could you explain to me how this measure can see Jackie Bradley as the exact same player in 2016 (OPS .835, OPS+ 118, and an all-star) as he is in 2018 (OPS .612, OPS+ 65)? I may be missing something, but as far as I can tell this would be a good case study in why this particular metric is not very good. wOBA aside, I think your sample size is too big. If I could use more recent stats and something a little more basic, I'm using OPS, over the last calendar year JBJ has been remarkably consistent and also bad: July 2017 - .596 August 2017 - .770 September 2017 - .526 April 2018 - .650 May 2018 - .599 June 2018 - .637 August was good, but the other 5 months were not stats that make a professional baseball player. I don't think anyone is arguing that JBJ wasn't awesome in 2015 & 2016 or the start of 2017. However, the last full year of baseball has been very bad (except for last August) and two opposite field hits don't necessarily change that. Talk to me in 2-3 weeks and if he's still killing it feel free to throw all of this back at me, but there's plenty of data to suggest that his offensive peak has come and gone. You're missing that it's expected wOBA (xwOBA). This is based on exit velocities and launch angles in statcast data. They also have expected batting average and expected slugging percentage here: baseballsavant.mlb.com/expected_statistics?type=batter&year=2018&position=&team=BOS&min=100For example, they can determine that a line drive hit 108 mph with a 22 degree launch angle has an 80% chance of being a hit and worth an average of 1.6 total bases (or whatever) based on all balls hit that hard.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 28, 2018 14:32:02 GMT -5
So, I had to look wOBA up and found that wOBA is based on traditional stats - 1B, 2B, HR, etc. There are no sabermetrics involved, things are just weighted so that extra base hits count more. I can't figure something out, so I'm asking this sincerely and not being sarcastic or snarky - could you explain to me how this measure can see Jackie Bradley as the exact same player in 2016 (OPS .835, OPS+ 118, and an all-star) as he is in 2018 (OPS .612, OPS+ 65)? I may be missing something, but as far as I can tell this would be a good case study in why this particular metric is not very good. It's not his wOBA that's the same (or close to the same), it's his EXPECTED wOBA, aka xwOBA. m.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-wobaAs far as I know it does not account for defensive shifting, so it's not a perfect luck-o-meter for hitters, but it's about as good of a single-number tool for that kind of thing as you can get publicly today.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 28, 2018 15:15:13 GMT -5
Whatever the number that fenwaythehardway put up is, it says that JBJ is the exact player in 2018 that he was in 2016 and implies that both players were/are very good. I just don't see how anyone can argue that that's a true statement. As far as exit velocity goes, I have not seen anything that provides a legitimate correlation between exit velocity and hits. If you go to Statcast and look at the exit velocity leader board, it is covered with players who are universally perceived as bad hitters. Joey Gallow is at the top of the exit velocity leader board. I know we don't have stats this far back, but I'd bet a kidney that Tony Gwynn never led the league in exit velocity. Some of them are phenominal players (see: Martinez, JD) but others are just hackers and only put the ball in play when it goes over the fence. Not a bad skill, but not enough when you're batting average is .190 If I could get a little philosophical for a minute: statistics are there to inform decisions, not to make them for you. All these statistics are data points that can be used to analyze a situation, but none of them should be taken individually to fully explain a situation. I also object to when people use advanced analytics to tell me what's happened in real life. JBJ hasn't hit and you can quote exit velocities and everything else to argue that he's unlucky, etc. but over a long enough period of time that's just part of his player profile and there's nothing you can do about it. If JBJ were to theoretically hit 100 line drives at the SS at 105 mph and all are outs then that's just a quirk with his swing and an unfortunate part of his game that he has to live with. Just because an event is statistically improbable doesn't mean it didn't happen. That's why they play the games and that's why we watch them. Edit: I appreciate the info, thank you. Rereading this I realize I do sound a little hostile, not the intent and I do enjoy the conversation. They have extensive data for thousands of players hitting the ball and the results of those events based on exit velocity and launch angle. If one player is not enough of a sample size, thousands should be. Over a large enough sample size, JBJ's xwOBA will approach his wOBA as will everyone else's. You aren't considering strike outs when comparing Gallo to Gwynn. Strike outs always have a .000 batting average. You also are not considering that a hitter has almost zero control over whether they hit the ball right at someone or not. It's hard enough to hit a 95 mph round ball with a round bat solidly. You cannot possibly aim the ball 5 feet in one direction or the other. Especially if you're hitting the ball hard. It's possible that somehow, JBJ is so predictable with where he hits line drives that the shifts actually give him a huge disadvantage over everyone else, but that's not something that can be assumed. And the gap between his xwOBA and actual wOBA could never be explained only by that.
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