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How about an All Star break first half assessment.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 10, 2017 11:43:01 GMT -5
Share what you are happy with....less happy with - and expectations for the second half. Lots of great thinking goes on here - curious about everyone's impressions. I will start - Starting Pitching - A- - Sale, Porcello, Price should all have better records (bit by inconsistent offense) - various fill-ins for ERod and Price during injury mixed, but not unexpected. Pomeranz a pleasant surprise. Bullpen - A- - Can't argue with their ranking, ERA - though one could nitpick some of the "let's walk the first dude on four pitches" approach Barnes sometimes shows, or the "time for an ill timed gopher ball" habit Hembree has on occasion. But - Kimbrel! Defense - B and improving - Marrero and Lin certainly shored up the 3rd base black hole. I thought Moreland would be tad more water tight; Xander is still developing. Can't say anything bad about the OF that's for sure. Leon and Vazquez are pretty hard to run on - their pitch calling must be pretty good as well looking at the pitching results. Offense...incomplete or mixed - feast or famine, lots or nothing - maddeningly inconsistent. None showing their best yet - Mookie, Benny, Xander can all improve. Hanley - what to do with Hanley? In game management decisions...hoo boy - can of worms. The Sox are in first despite not at all playing up to their capability. To me, Farrell has helped win some games, maybe hurt in a few games. Second half - prediction - more homes games, better record, starting pitching maintains or gets even better (and they need to go a bit deeper to keep the arms on the pen's guys - watch those GP totals) - hoping Barnes adjustment continues to pay off, and Kimbrel maintains. My biggest worry - Hanley is (due to injuries or just Hanley being Hanley) on the downward slope - and they will need a bat or two to keep the trains running and sustain some rallies. I see the Sox maintaining first - and even widening their lead a bit. I won't go beyond the regular season. **** big time asterisk/caveat - I am NOT much of a stats guy - I am a long time fan, watch or listen to pretty much all the games, and tend to run with emotions and heart. So please don't scrutinize too closely my grades above - I am sure there are some distortions or inaccuracies (based on stats/reality) here or there!
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 10, 2017 12:41:09 GMT -5
The home field advantage is significant with the Sox having had 11 more game away than home. Baltimore is closest in the division with 6 then the Yankees who are even.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 10, 2017 13:04:43 GMT -5
The bullpen worries me more than anything, including 3B and Hanley. There just aren't any guys other than Kimbrel that I'm comfortable will continue to be good and even he is likely to regress a little. Kelly and Abad's xFIP are significantly higher than their ERAs. I was counting on Thornburg and Carson Smith coming back, but Thornburg is out and now Smith is having shoulder issues. We have no reliable LHP out there.
And as we all have noticed, bullpens win and lose playoff games.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 10, 2017 13:53:26 GMT -5
The bullpen worries me more than anything, including 3B and Hanley. There just aren't any guys other than Kimbrel that I'm comfortable will continue to be good and even he is likely to regress a little. Kelly and Abad's xFIP are significantly higher than their ERAs. I was counting on Thornburg and Carson Smith coming back, but Thornburg is out and now Smith is having shoulder issues. We have no reliable LHP out there. And as we all have noticed, bullpens win and lose playoff games. I'm less worried about Kelly's xFIP. He doesn't whiff a lot of guys, which hurts the FIP, but his FB movement seems to provide some legit HR suppression. Even so, I agree that he just feels more like a very good 7th inning guy and not a real setup option. Same with Barnes. Overall, I'd give their first half a B+. They've overcome significant adversity while getting terrible results from spot starters. Pomeranz has been almost exactly what I expected, which is a solid 3 in a rotation where he's more like the 4/5. Price and Rodriguez have pitched reasonably well when healthy. Sale's been lights-out, unsurprisingly. As has Kimbrel, a bit more surprisingly (but not especially so). Lin and Marrero have solidified the INF defense, and Lin has been a spark since brought up. The offense as a whole has been very middling and inconsistent, but JBJ's performance has been nice confirmation of a very good baseline from last year and Mookie's BABIP suggests that he's got some serious positive regression coming. Benintendi has been very good for a rookie; were it not for Judge Beni would be halfway to ROY. Moreland's been consistently average, which is a good deal for $5M. The rest of the offense has been down, some significantly. I'd expect some improvement, and I think Devers has a real shot at contributing by mid-August. They're in first place despite a bunch of injuries, weak offense, and a soft finish. That's cause for some relief, if not outright celebration.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 10, 2017 14:11:04 GMT -5
The bullpen worries me more than anything, including 3B and Hanley. There just aren't any guys other than Kimbrel that I'm comfortable will continue to be good and even he is likely to regress a little. Kelly and Abad's xFIP are significantly higher than their ERAs. I was counting on Thornburg and Carson Smith coming back, but Thornburg is out and now Smith is having shoulder issues. We have no reliable LHP out there. And as we all have noticed, bullpens win and lose playoff games. I'm less worried about Kelly's xFIP. He doesn't whiff a lot of guys, which hurts the FIP, but his FB movement seems to provide some legit HR suppression. Even so, I agree that he just feels more like a very good 7th inning guy and not a real setup option. Same with Barnes. Overall, I'd give their first half a B+. They've overcome significant adversity while getting terrible results from spot starters. Pomeranz has been almost exactly what I expected, which is a solid 3 in a rotation where he's more like the 4/5. Price and Rodriguez have pitched reasonably well when healthy. Sale's been lights-out, unsurprisingly. As has Kimbrel, a bit more surprisingly (but not especially so). Lin and Marrero have solidified the INF defense, and Lin has been a spark since brought up. The offense as a whole has been very middling and inconsistent, but JBJ's performance has been nice confirmation of a very good baseline from last year and Mookie's BABIP suggests that he's got some serious positive regression coming. Benintendi has been very good for a rookie; were it not for Judge Beni would be halfway to ROY. Moreland's been consistently average, which is a good deal for $5M. The rest of the offense has been down, some significantly. I'd expect some improvement, and I think Devers has a real shot at contributing by mid-August. They're in first place despite a bunch of injuries, weak offense, and a soft finish. That's cause for some relief, if not outright celebration. B+ is about right - none of us knew the impact of Ortiz retirement - it turned out to be pretty significant, not only in offense, but leadership. Hanley just can't fit his shoes at all, in any way.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 10, 2017 14:24:09 GMT -5
I consider the first half very successful and am pleased with the results. I was on record as having said they would run roughshod over the league. Well, not exactly. But with the 2nd best record in the AL, there is a lot to like. I wasn't aware that the teams in the division would be so tough, and that as made things more difficult. More to the point, the parity in baseball has changed the overall landscape of the definition of successful teams. I would go far as to say that winning 92 games (or so) would be much like the 95 win teams that Theo put together in the first decade of 2000.
Without breaking down by segment, I would give the overall output of the team so far a B. From where I come from, that's a good grade. I think there are better things in store for the 2nd half, and I definitely feel this team could win it all.
Go Sox!!
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 10, 2017 14:57:58 GMT -5
Hell of a season so far. I did not expect them to be this good at all! Maybe my expectations were too low.
The pen in particular has really surpassed my expectations. Kimbrel is pitching better than ever. Kelly, Barnes and Hembree have all moved up a peg on the leverage totem pole. Robby Scott is death to lefties. Boyer has even been useful.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 10, 2017 15:40:01 GMT -5
Hell of a season so far. I did not expect them to be this good at all! Maybe my expectations were too low. The pen in particular has really surpassed my expectations. Kimbrel is pitching better than ever. Kelly, Barnes and Hembree have all moved up a peg on the leverage totem pole. Robby Scott is death to lefties. Boyer has even been useful. You might want to look at Robby Scott's splits again. He's walking way too many guys. In June and July, he has walked 5 of 19 LH batters and also hit one.
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Post by mandelbro on Jul 10, 2017 15:52:23 GMT -5
Hell of a season so far. I did not expect them to be this good at all! Maybe my expectations were too low. The pen in particular has really surpassed my expectations. Kimbrel is pitching better than ever. Kelly, Barnes and Hembree have all moved up a peg on the leverage totem pole. Robby Scott is death to lefties. Boyer has even been useful. You might want to look at Robby Scott's splits again. He's walking way too many guys. In June and July, he has walked 5 of 19 LH batters and also hit one. .111/.256/.229 against, with a delivery that seems naturally tough on LHH. I'll take it.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 10, 2017 16:26:35 GMT -5
Given how uneven this team has been I would give them an A- for the record they've amassed to this point, but a B- for individual performances. Or shorter: The Talent has not lived up to expectations but they've somehow managed to win despite that. The free falls by the Yankees and Orioles have helped, as has Toronto's dreadful start.
Biggest concerns is the pen needs a genuine "8th inning guy" which would like them mix and match that person and Kelly with high leverage situations, whether it's the 8th or 7th. The offense still looks fragile to me - as jimed14 said the other night - you can almost predict the outcome of each game by the offense's first 3-4 innings. Most glaring need as we all know is legit 3rd baseman or solid platoon. I have to believe even if Lin (who is rapidly approaching full binky status) is part of that he'll tail off, and while Marrero is a great glove and could be that Pokey-Reese type late inning defensive guy, he's just over-matched by most AL pitchers. Hanley to hit at or near his 2nd half production of last year, and Betts, Pedroia, JBJ, Moreland, and Xander (who is still working through the damaged thumb, never mind the ball to the hand the other night) to produce at their first half levels or better. I'd like it, too, if Farrell completely ceased to treat Benintendi like a platoon player.
The second half has me worried because of all the games with NYY, whose pitching is not as good as the Sox but which has a much better quick strike offense. They also have absurd prospect depth and can go get a #1A or #2 starter and still retain their entire MLB club and likely not have to move Fraizer or Torres (whose DL stint becomes a blessing in disguise in that regard). Tampa remains a concern head-to-head but I don't think they have what it takes to be in the Div race by Sept, though they should/could be a wild card contender, which would be a real concern if the Sox fall out of first.
Finally, as they are playing now, I don't believe this team could beat either a healthy Cleveland or Houston in a short series. Lots of time to change that, and winning the division is the first priority. But without the offensive performances improving and a significant pen arm, even if the Sox win the division, I can't see this team in its present form advancing any further than last year's team.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 10, 2017 17:52:00 GMT -5
Given how uneven this team has been I would give them an A- for the record they've amassed to this point, but a B- for individual performances. Or shorter: The Talent has not lived up to expectations but they've somehow managed to win despite that. The free falls by the Yankees and Orioles have helped, as has Toronto's dreadful start. Biggest concerns is the pen needs a genuine "8th inning guy" which would like them mix and match that person and Kelly with high leverage situations, whether it's the 8th or 7th. The offense still looks fragile to me - as jimed14 said the other night - you can almost predict the outcome of each game by the offense's first 3-4 innings. Most glaring need as we all know is legit 3rd baseman or solid platoon. I have to believe even if Lin (who is rapidly approaching full binky status) is part of that he'll tail off, and while Marrero is a great glove and could be that Pokey-Reese type late inning defensive guy, he's just over-matched by most AL pitchers. Hanley to hit at or near his 2nd half production of last year, and Betts, Pedroia, JBJ, Moreland, and Xander (who is still working through the damaged thumb, never mind the ball to the hand the other night) to produce at their first half levels or better. I'd like it, too, if Farrell completely ceased to treat Benintendi like a platoon player. The second half has me worried because of all the games with NYY, whose pitching is not as good as the Sox but which has a much better quick strike offense. They also have absurd prospect depth and can go get a #1A or #2 starter and still retain their entire MLB club and likely not have to move Fraizer or Torres (whose DL stint becomes a blessing in disguise in that regard). Tampa remains a concern head-to-head but I don't think they have what it takes to be in the Div race by Sept, though they should/could be a wild card contender, which would be a real concern if the Sox fall out of first. Finally, as they are playing now, I don't believe this team could beat either a healthy Cleveland or Houston in a short series. Lots of time to change that, and winning the division is the first priority. But without the offensive performances improving and a significant pen arm, even if the Sox win the division, I can't see this team in its present form advancing any further than last year's team. I generally agree, with the caveat that I honk having Sale as a #1 makes them that much more likely to win even a short series. Going up 1-0, or pitching game 5, has its advantages. If 2016 Porcello and the real David Price show up, they're that much tougher. I wanna see another lights-out relief arm (I still contend that Callahan and Buttrey should be tried out before making a move), but their SP, excellent defense, and good team baserunning gives them a shot. Edit: while I do "honk" it, I think it as well
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Post by larrycook on Jul 10, 2017 22:57:05 GMT -5
I think Farrell deserves a solid "B" for the job he has done this season. Sure he has made some bad moves, but all things considered he has this team in 1st despite a black hole at third, playing 11 more road games than home games, and injuries beyond belief to any and almost all infielders.
Dave on the other hand just needs a one way taxi ride to the airport. But as far as a grade goes, I give him a "D+". He did some good things like trade for sale and sign Moreland. Everything else he touched turned out miserably. Plus he has overpaid on most trades and run off most of the brightest and best from the operations department!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 10, 2017 23:43:11 GMT -5
The Red Sox have turned out better than expected although I sometimes can't tell if the Red Sox are a really good team or simply the best of a bad lot as in Houston has been great and everybody else relatively mediocre and the Sox are the best of that lot.
I hope it's the latter.
The pitching has been relatively good as they are leading the league in ERA thanks to Sale and Kimbrel. They've both earned an A+.
The pitching beyond them has been decent although the hope is there that they can finally have their pitching intact. If David Price continues to pitch as he has and Porcello pitches like he has recently that would make the Sox rotation stacked, especially when you consider that E-Rod was their #2 starter before he tweaked his knee and that Pomeranz, after a start in which he was killing the pen, has now emerged as the 2nd best pitcher in the rotation while E-Rod was away.
So if E-Rod gets back to what he was, Pomeranz continues as he has been while incorporating the cutter, Price and Porcello pitch more like 2016 and Sale is Sale, that's the best rotation in the league hands down and better yet, between Fister, Johnson, and Velazquez they should have enough quality depth in case injuries do strike.
I'd give the rotation a solid B with a chance that it can become an A rotation.
The bullpen has surprised me thus far. Kimbrel has pitched like it's 2012 or 2013. He's been virtually unhittable and his control has been impeccable.
Sunday aside, Joe Kelly has pitched very well for the Sox and is their 2nd best pen guy. Barnes has had his ups and downs, but all in all he's reasonably effective although I think he's better for 2 inning stints rather than the 8th inning setup role that Farrell has tried to force feed him into. Barnes has been too wild to be a consistent #2 guy out of the pen. Hembree has had his ups and downs too, but like Barnes, he's been decent. He's been the middle guy for long stints who has had issues with the HR ball. The rest of the crew has been surprisingly decent. Blayne Boyer has been pretty useful and has given them some good middle relief work while Scott and Abad have been reasonably good this year, although Scott has struggled with his control lately and might find himself back down in Pawtucket at some point. I'd guess that would happen when E-Rod returns and Fister moves to the pen.
I'd say the pen has been a solid B+ overall, but I do worry that if things stay status quo, the pen will have issues in the 2nd half. If the starters can pitch as they are capable that could mitigate some of the issues so that they're not overextended, but frankly in a post-season I'd be very concerned about the bridge leading to Kimbrel.
I think the Sox need a fireman type who could double as the 8th inning guy ideally. The Red Sox have a lot of "could be useful" types in AAA and already on the roster. It would be nice if they could consolidate some of them into some sort of deal to get a guy who is having a great year, somebody like a Pat Neshek. I would think in the post-season Pomeranz could provide help as the main lefty out of the pen.
The offense, in my opinion, is a C. The Sox play at Fenway Park where they should be leading the league in doubles and be toward the top of the runs scored area, but after being a juggernaut offense last year, they clearly miss Big Papi, but have been getting killed at 3b and are experiencing a huge down year from Ramirez and need Pedroia to provide a little more pop.
Moreland and Vazquez have hit better than expected, but I don't expect them to hit as well going forward. Bradley might have some slippage as the year rolls on, but they need Xander to hit with more pop, and they need monster second halves, like last year, from Betts and Hanley. I'm sure they'll get it from Betts, but if Hanley isn't healthy, it's more unlikely that he breaks out, and they need him, too. Hopefully Benintendi can really break out, but that might be more likely to happen next year. The middle of the order isn't that fearsome, and the lack of power prevents the Sox from having a well balanced offense.
Way too many times they'll hit for a day or two or three, and then they'll alternate leaving guys on/hit into DPs with not hitting at all.
I like how Lin has played thus far, but I can't shake the feeling that he might go in a deal for a 3b. Frazier, I think, fits what the Red Sox need, a bopper in the lineup. It's an element they lack.
I'd give Farrell a B-. His game strategy is mind boggling to be kind. For the most part he handles his pitchers ok, and he's gotten as much as he can from that pen. I don't see a team that's really together in that 2004/2013 comradery sense, but given that the Sox are in first place, you have to give him some credit for that.
Dombrowski, for 2017, looks good with the exception of the Shaw plus/Thornburg deal. If Shaw had resembled the consistent masher that he's been with the Brewers, he wouldn't have been dealt, and if Thornburg had been healthy, and pitched like he did with the Brewers, the Sox wouldn't still be looking for the 8th inning guy, and not having Smith around makes that tougher.
The Sale trade looks fantastic, although despite the warts in Moncada and Kopech's game, I do believe the White Sox will get some excellent value out of those two. He paid the going rate for Sale and it seems like a wise decision, at least for 2017.
Right now the Pomeranz deal looks good as it looks like a good starter for a kid whose career is in question now that he has elbow issues. The results of this deal might work out alright, but I certainly didn't like the concept behind the deal. Maybe he gets away with this one just fine. At least in 2017 it appears that way. If Espinoza gets healthy and develops on the path that he was following, then the view of the trade could revert back in a hurry.
The Kimbrel deal is looking great right now. Margot has potential but he's been ordinary, and nobody else has come up yet, although Logan Allen has the potential to swing that deal widely into the Pads' favor, but like the Sale deal it might be one of those deals where everybody benefits and gets what they wanted, which isn't a bad thing, as long as Allen doesn't become Lester version 2.
With a lot more home games than road games, things bode well for the Sox, although I do worry they could stumble hard against the Yankees coming out of the gate in the 2nd half, as for some reason (HR advantage?) the Yankees have been knocking the Sox around. I think the Red Sox have what it takes to win the division, although it wouldn't shock me if they lost it in a close race.
I think they can get farther than last year, but after getting swept by Cleveland, that's not saying much. There's a shot they have a rematch against Cleveland. Maybe this time, with less expectation of winning, they could surprise, and if they do, it wouldn't shock me to see Houston let down in the post-season. I think things are pretty wide open this year.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 11, 2017 21:50:16 GMT -5
As far as guys brought up from the farm system in the first half, I give them a "B".
I thought Johnson and velesquez did their part while they were up. Kendrick, not so much.
Marrero and Lin helped stabilize the black hole at third and chip in with some hits. Plus Travis has held his own against lefties.
I think we have some players in the minors that I feel confident will contribute in the second half. Workman and maybe Maddox come to mInd.
Plus given the numerous injuries in the first half to just about all our infielders, maybe we see witte in Boston in the second half. He is finally starting to hit a little in Pawtucket.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 11, 2017 23:04:24 GMT -5
I wonder if it is worth kicking the tires on Brentz again - having quite a year in Pawtucket (esp recently)
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Post by telson13 on Jul 11, 2017 23:49:02 GMT -5
The Red Sox have turned out better than expected although I sometimes can't tell if the Red Sox are a really good team or simply the best of a bad lot as in Houston has been great and everybody else relatively mediocre and the Sox are the best of that lot. I hope it's the latter. The pitching has been relatively good as they are leading the league in ERA thanks to Sale and Kimbrel. They've both earned an A+. The pitching beyond them has been decent although the hope is there that they can finally have their pitching intact. If David Price continues to pitch as he has and Porcello pitches like he has recently that would make the Sox rotation stacked, especially when you consider that E-Rod was their #2 starter before he tweaked his knee and that Pomeranz, after a start in which he was killing the pen, has now emerged as the 2nd best pitcher in the rotation while E-Rod was away. So if E-Rod gets back to what he was, Pomeranz continues as he has been while incorporating the cutter, Price and Porcello pitch more like 2016 and Sale is Sale, that's the best rotation in the league hands down and better yet, between Fister, Johnson, and Velazquez they should have enough quality depth in case injuries do strike. I'd give the rotation a solid B with a chance that it can become an A rotation. The bullpen has surprised me thus far. Kimbrel has pitched like it's 2012 or 2013. He's been virtually unhittable and his control has been impeccable. Sunday aside, Joe Kelly has pitched very well for the Sox and is their 2nd best pen guy. Barnes has had his ups and downs, but all in all he's reasonably effective although I think he's better for 2 inning stints rather than the 8th inning setup role that Farrell has tried to force feed him into. Barnes has been too wild to be a consistent #2 guy out of the pen. Hembree has had his ups and downs too, but like Barnes, he's been decent. He's been the middle guy for long stints who has had issues with the HR ball. The rest of the crew has been surprisingly decent. Blayne Boyer has been pretty useful and has given them some good middle relief work while Scott and Abad have been reasonably good this year, although Scott has struggled with his control lately and might find himself back down in Pawtucket at some point. I'd guess that would happen when E-Rod returns and Fister moves to the pen. I'd say the pen has been a solid B+ overall, but I do worry that if things stay status quo, the pen will have issues in the 2nd half. If the starters can pitch as they are capable that could mitigate some of the issues so that they're not overextended, but frankly in a post-season I'd be very concerned about the bridge leading to Kimbrel. I think the Sox need a fireman type who could double as the 8th inning guy ideally. The Red Sox have a lot of "could be useful" types in AAA and already on the roster. It would be nice if they could consolidate some of them into some sort of deal to get a guy who is having a great year, somebody like a Pat Neshek. I would think in the post-season Pomeranz could provide help as the main lefty out of the pen. The offense, in my opinion, is a C. The Sox play at Fenway Park where they should be leading the league in doubles and be toward the top of the runs scored area, but after being a juggernaut offense last year, they clearly miss Big Papi, but have been getting killed at 3b and are experiencing a huge down year from Ramirez and need Pedroia to provide a little more pop. Moreland and Vazquez have hit better than expected, but I don't expect them to hit as well going forward. Bradley might have some slippage as the year rolls on, but they need Xander to hit with more pop, and they need monster second halves, like last year, from Betts and Hanley. I'm sure they'll get it from Betts, but if Hanley isn't healthy, it's more unlikely that he breaks out, and they need him, too. Hopefully Benintendi can really break out, but that might be more likely to happen next year. The middle of the order isn't that fearsome, and the lack of power prevents the Sox from having a well balanced offense. Way too many times they'll hit for a day or two or three, and then they'll alternate leaving guys on/hit into DPs with not hitting at all. I like how Lin has played thus far, but I can't shake the feeling that he might go in a deal for a 3b. Frazier, I think, fits what the Red Sox need, a bopper in the lineup. It's an element they lack. I'd give Farrell a B-. His game strategy is mind boggling to be kind. For the most part he handles his pitchers ok, and he's gotten as much as he can from that pen. I don't see a team that's really together in that 2004/2013 comradery sense, but given that the Sox are in first place, you have to give him some credit for that. Dombrowski, for 2017, looks good with the exception of the Shaw plus/Thornburg deal. If Shaw had resembled the consistent masher that he's been with the Brewers, he wouldn't have been dealt, and if Thornburg had been healthy, and pitched like he did with the Brewers, the Sox wouldn't still be looking for the 8th inning guy, and not having Smith around makes that tougher. The Sale trade looks fantastic, although despite the warts in Moncada and Kopech's game, I do believe the White Sox will get some excellent value out of those two. He paid the going rate for Sale and it seems like a wise decision, at least for 2017. Right now the Pomeranz deal looks good as it looks like a good starter for a kid whose career is in question now that he has elbow issues. The results of this deal might work out alright, but I certainly didn't like the concept behind the deal. Maybe he gets away with this one just fine. At least in 2017 it appears that way. If Espinoza gets healthy and develops on the path that he was following, then the view of the trade could revert back in a hurry. The Kimbrel deal is looking great right now. Margot has potential but he's been ordinary, and nobody else has come up yet, although Logan Allen has the potential to swing that deal widely into the Pads' favor, but like the Sale deal it might be one of those deals where everybody benefits and gets what they wanted, which isn't a bad thing, as long as Allen doesn't become Lester version 2. With a lot more home games than road games, things bode well for the Sox, although I do worry they could stumble hard against the Yankees coming out of the gate in the 2nd half, as for some reason (HR advantage?) the Yankees have been knocking the Sox around. I think the Red Sox have what it takes to win the division, although it wouldn't shock me if they lost it in a close race. I think they can get farther than last year, but after getting swept by Cleveland, that's not saying much. There's a shot they have a rematch against Cleveland. Maybe this time, with less expectation of winning, they could surprise, and if they do, it wouldn't shock me to see Houston let down in the post-season. I think things are pretty wide open this year. Other than Sale (marginally and perhaps unsurprisingly based on framing and defense) and Kimbrel, nobody is having a career year or even an especially good year. Price and Rodriguez have been hurt and Porcello's underperformed. The whole offense has been mediocre at best...beyond maybe Moreland and possibly JBJ, there's not even one person exceeding expectations. And 3b really can't possibly get worse. I'm of a mind that this is a very, very good team waiting to break out. They're a likely division winner even if they just keep playing as they have (and 11-game home advantage helps). It's no given, but it'd take some pretty rotten luck/play to keep them out of the playoffs.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 13, 2017 18:09:00 GMT -5
Having just run the numbers ...
The AL edge over the NL has shrunk further. After being as high as 8 wins per 162 games a few years ago, it was 4.3 last year and is on a pace for 2.9 this year.
The AL has only a slight edge through the 16 best teams in MLB, and for the first time I can remember, the 10 teams that would make the post-season right now are the 10 best teams in baseball. The league disparity comes from the weaker teams; the bottom AL 7 clubs project to finish at a schedule-adjusted .467 vs. the NL's .420. The 6 weakest teams in MLB are all in the NL.
Rank of divisions:
.528 AL West .521 NL West .520 AL East .491 AL Central .485 NL Central .456 NL East
Despite all the road games, Sox have had the second-easiest schedule in the AL. It's actually neutral.
They've been +1.3 wins karma-wise, and from the causal attention I've given it, I think that represents a real improvement in Farrell's handling of the pitching.
Meanwhile, at -7.6, the Yankees have been the worst karma team in MLB. They had a 74% chance of better of winning in 10 of their last 17 losses, and they are 9-17 in one-run games. Can we count on this continuing? History says no.
But as other have pointed out, we can be a good deal better going forward.
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