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Eduardo Nunez to the Red Sox
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 30, 2017 18:40:19 GMT -5
2D overlays are misleading when there's a 38 ft wall that they don't take into account. It would be more meaningful if we could see all the outs in SF that will now be doubles. Do you want one for his time in NYYYYYYYYY???
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 1, 2017 22:31:09 GMT -5
I'm still trying to wrap my head around the rationale for this trade. This is what I get (opening statements are the team's beliefs): 1) He's a mild upgrade to Deven Marrero as Dever's platoon complement. I'm skeptical of this, but I'll trust that they have advanced metrics that say it's so. Still, I think the odds of it amounting to a win before season's end are tiny. But I think this was a bigger concern ... 2) He's a significant upgrade to Tzu-Wei Lin or Marrero as a utility guy should Brock Holt not recover from his concussions. True in terms of positional flexibility. I'm not so sure how big the upgrade is overall in terms of wins (if any), and again I'm very skeptical it can amount to a win. Furthermore, if they lose Holt the best way to fill his roster spot might be Sam Travis to platoon at 1B. 3) He's a significant upgrade to Lin as the regular vs. RHP should Devers fail. Again, it seems to me that this is less than they think, and that it wouldn't amount to a win over two months. More importantly, the odds of Devers failing at the time they made the trade were low. There had been 9 age-20 callups of guys with a .275 or better MLE EqA since 1985, and two flopped: Jim Thome and Fernando Martinez. They had .277 and .281 respectively, where Devers had .300. I think further analysis reduces the odds significantly. Scouting already had the odds as low. 4) He's a key piece should both Devers and Holt end up out of the equation. This may have been the scenario that most scared them and motivated the trade. But in that scenario, you have a Lin / Marrero platoon at 3B and Sam Travis on the roster to platoon at 1B, and I just don't see where replacing Lin or Marrero with Nunez amounts to a win over two months. One thing I discovered talking to Tom Tippett about the Peavey trade is that they don't multiply the odds of a reasonable worst-case scenario by the odds it will happen, when they crunch the numbers. They're looking for insurance against the 10% calamity in order to maximize their post-season chances when thinks are looking very good. I think they did feel that Nunez would be worth half a win or more should Devers flop and Holt need replacing, and I think that's a reasonable conclusion even if I'm skeptical it's true. One tentative conclusion is that the Giants were prepared to trade Nunez elsewhere when we made the move. Otherwise, you want to see how Devers fares through 7/31. I don't think they make the trade today, frankly. I personally would have gambled and gone without the insurance, but I've always been optimistic about the young ones. OK, so there's one I left out that I was certainly aware of, but resisted the urge to research. As suggested by those overlay charts ... 5) He has a ridiculous Fenway swing and is actually a guy you sort of want to get into the lineup at home. The bases-clearing ball against Miller is a trivial out in San Francisco. I'm rather less skeptical that he can be worth more than half a win before it's over ...
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Post by telson13 on Aug 2, 2017 1:17:53 GMT -5
I liked this trade as a calamity-protection deal where they didn't give up too much, mostly because I was certain Devers would be an upgrade. But that Nunez is on absolute fire is a huge bonus. He also (as well-covered here) looks like he's going to be a fantastic Fenway hitter. His speed (especially the PR option in the playoffs) is another bonus. I'm kinda bummed he's just a 3-month rental.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 6, 2017 20:13:04 GMT -5
It's amazing that I haven't seen this bit of irony in the national media or mentioned here..
Eduardo Nunez was the guy who failed in pinstripes as Derek Jeter's successor.
(Guidas did mention that he was regarded by the MFY's as "the next Jeter," but that's just half of the story.)
He had spent all of 2011 and 2012 as Jeter's backup. He got his chance the next year when Jeter was hurt and out until July (and then again until September).
In fact, he was the Opening Day SS against the Red Sox. And he went 4/10, BB in that series, while the Yankees were losing 2 of 3.
He then hit .171 / .268 / .243 in 84 PA before straining an oblique. He missed two months and had a 526 OPS in his first 9 games back.
He then came to Fenway and went 6/14, 2 2B in another series the Yankees lost.
A 616 OPS in 20 games ...
5/9, 3B, 2 BB in a 3-game series at Fenway (that the MFY's won), then a 530 OPS the next week.
He actually had a solid September, but mostly at 3B when Jeter returned (during which he went 0/5 in Fenway). The Yankees dumped him on the Twins the next spring.
And here's the final joker in the deck. Before the trade, he was ...
.284 / .346 / .405 (81 PA) in Fenway .306 / .368 / .452 (68 PA) vs. Red Sox at home
But the first line divides as follows:
.373 / .448 / .549 (58 PA) in Fenway as a Yankee .087 / .087 / .087 (23 PA) in Fenway as a Twin (which is to say, 2/23)
And the second:
.297 / .366 / .432 (41 PA) vs Sox as a Yankee at home .320 / .370 / .480 (27 PA) vs Sox as a Twin at home
So, he was the designated Jeter successor who was terrible ... but absolutely killed the Red Sox.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 6, 2017 22:08:10 GMT -5
What is informing is that someone obviously did their homework in the FO. There was probably research that dug up those charts. That would have helped with the decision to bring him onto the team. We can't know that, but I doubt that those patterns were unknown to the Sox.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Aug 7, 2017 17:16:54 GMT -5
I've a hard time believing the FO gave much (i.e., more than zero) weight to 150 carved-out PA's from 5-6 years ago.
I mean, thanks to EMV for digging those out -- they're fun to look at. But to apply any significance to them seems a huge stretch.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 7, 2017 22:19:37 GMT -5
I've a hard time believing the FO gave much (i.e., more than zero) weight to 150 carved-out PA's from 5-6 years ago. I mean, thanks to EMV for digging those out -- they're fun to look at. But to apply any significance to them seems a huge stretch. I'm not putting any significance to them at all. As you say, just a fun story. Really, Jeter's failed successor who could do just one thing right, and that was kill us, is now our season co-savior? And (to combine a fact from another thread), he has 3 crucial RBI in the game we we finally break a 13-game failure streak, one that goes back to 1904, of trying to overtake the Yankees in August or later when starting the day 0.5 behind. I know that the FO analytical side did very serious and thorough spray chart analysis back in my day. I don't see why that would have changed. The last guy they really hit on was Cody Ross, who was .298 / .356 / .565 in Fenway and .232 / .294 / .390 on the road his year here. They seem to have struck gold again with Nunez.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Aug 8, 2017 1:24:30 GMT -5
I've a hard time believing the FO gave much (i.e., more than zero) weight to 150 carved-out PA's from 5-6 years ago. I mean, thanks to EMV for digging those out -- they're fun to look at. But to apply any significance to them seems a huge stretch. I'm not putting any significance to them at all. As you say, just a fun story. Really, Jeter's failed successor who could do just one thing right, and that was kill us, is now our season co-savior? And (to combine a fact from another thread), he has 3 crucial RBI in the game we we finally break a 13-game failure streak, one that goes back to 1904, of trying to overtake the Yankees in August or later when starting the day 0.5 behind. I know that the FO analytical side did very serious and thorough spray chart analysis back in my day. I don't see why that would have changed. The last guy they really hit on was Cody Ross, who was .298 / .356 / .565 in Fenway and .232 / .294 / .390 on the road his year here. They seem to have struck gold again with Nunez. ramireja Staff Jul 28, 2017 at 5:14pm The Constant Lurker likes this Quote Historical data is important. Lord knows enough posters here and elsewhere use it to demonstrate why players like JBJ, Moreland, Vasquez, Brentz, Castillo, Iglesias will never, ever hit in the Majors. Except when they do. Nunez came to the Sox on a roll, to a park where this pull hitter can find doubles and home runs which, according to historical data, including those captured in spray charts, in other parks were fly and line drive outs, and the gaps are truly unique. He can also run, is heads up, and can cover a variety of positions. Even with regression, if his offense is valuable, he is a keeper and should be extended with a contract more generous than his current $1.75M
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