Post by ericmvan on Aug 4, 2017 11:12:40 GMT -5
Mitch Moreland was hitting .282 / .379 / .483 when Ben Lively broke his toe on June 13th. He homered his next time up in that game, then went 1 for another 4 with 2 SO.
The toe presumably swelled up after (or during) the game, and he sat out once and then decided to play through the injury.
He started 10 of the next 11 games and hit .216 / .250 / .459 (40 PA).
Over the next 29 games, he started 20 and came off the bench 5 times, and hit .119 / .216 / .131 (97 PA).
He definitely seemed to change his approach over those first 10 games. His O-Swing went from .308 to .384 and O-Contact from .524 to .667, while his Z-Contact went from .843 to .872. As a result, his BB rate went from .128 to .025. His Pull went from .432 to .286, and his Hard from .347 to .200. This is a guy who knows he can't hit the ball hard and is just trying to put it into play.
Now, it's true that he homered in each of his last three games of this stretch, the only reason his numbers weren't terrible. But he was still using the same approach: his O-Swing, O-Contact, and (marginally) Z-Contact were higher in these 3 games than the previous 7, his Pull was still way down, he still wasn't walking. Two of the three homers were to left, versus one out of eleven before and after. The toe's feeling better to an unknown degree, he runs into a couple of pitches he can loft over the Monster with his new approach.
In the massive slump that followed, his plate discipline numbers pretty much returned to normal (defined by his pre-injury rates. It's hard to tell exactly when he went back to his old approach, but it's somewhere between immediately after those three games with HRs, and a week after.) His batted ball profile is unchanged. His pull is down somewhat (.432 to .349). But his BABIP goes from .347 to .159, his HR/FB from .145 to .000, and his K is a bit up and BB a bit down.
So this is just a guy in a terrible slump.
And Moreland has always been prone to long, terrible slumps.
So the question is: why in God's names would you let a guy prone to long, terrible slumps play through an injury, requiring him to alter his mechanics?
Xander Bogaerts is a simpler story. I'll do him later (maybe tomorrow). But here's the trailer: since hurting his hand, he has not chased more balls out of the zone (to my surprise). He is swinging at a lot more balls in the zone, and he utterly stopped making hard contact and pulling the ball, and shows no sign of starting again.
The toe presumably swelled up after (or during) the game, and he sat out once and then decided to play through the injury.
He started 10 of the next 11 games and hit .216 / .250 / .459 (40 PA).
Over the next 29 games, he started 20 and came off the bench 5 times, and hit .119 / .216 / .131 (97 PA).
He definitely seemed to change his approach over those first 10 games. His O-Swing went from .308 to .384 and O-Contact from .524 to .667, while his Z-Contact went from .843 to .872. As a result, his BB rate went from .128 to .025. His Pull went from .432 to .286, and his Hard from .347 to .200. This is a guy who knows he can't hit the ball hard and is just trying to put it into play.
Now, it's true that he homered in each of his last three games of this stretch, the only reason his numbers weren't terrible. But he was still using the same approach: his O-Swing, O-Contact, and (marginally) Z-Contact were higher in these 3 games than the previous 7, his Pull was still way down, he still wasn't walking. Two of the three homers were to left, versus one out of eleven before and after. The toe's feeling better to an unknown degree, he runs into a couple of pitches he can loft over the Monster with his new approach.
In the massive slump that followed, his plate discipline numbers pretty much returned to normal (defined by his pre-injury rates. It's hard to tell exactly when he went back to his old approach, but it's somewhere between immediately after those three games with HRs, and a week after.) His batted ball profile is unchanged. His pull is down somewhat (.432 to .349). But his BABIP goes from .347 to .159, his HR/FB from .145 to .000, and his K is a bit up and BB a bit down.
So this is just a guy in a terrible slump.
And Moreland has always been prone to long, terrible slumps.
So the question is: why in God's names would you let a guy prone to long, terrible slumps play through an injury, requiring him to alter his mechanics?
Xander Bogaerts is a simpler story. I'll do him later (maybe tomorrow). But here's the trailer: since hurting his hand, he has not chased more balls out of the zone (to my surprise). He is swinging at a lot more balls in the zone, and he utterly stopped making hard contact and pulling the ball, and shows no sign of starting again.
