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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 13, 2017 15:55:38 GMT -5
It's all about if you believe Derek Jeter, the guy that will be running the team. He wants to lower payroll and rebuild the system. It will be very hard to lower payroll with Stanton on the team, his salary jumps from 14.5 million to 25 million next year. Nevermind you would waste his prime years why you rebuild. Chances are he gets traded, unless Jeter does a 180 on his plans to rebuild the team. Jeter sure sounded like he wanted to do a Houston Astro type rebuild. Prado (13.5, 15), Volquez (13), and Chen (10, 20, 22 vesting opt) are all making >$10M. Plus Ozuna is projected to get 10.9 in arbitration. Dealing Prado and Volquez in salary dumps (Chen is probably not tradeable until he shows health) certainly "lowers the payroll." Certainly, they could move Stanton, but they'd need to get more than even the Sale package. I can't see a team giving them that given his contract. They HAVE young pieces. Stanton, Yelich, Ozuna, Realmuto, Gordon, and even to an extent Bour are in place. They don't need to completely tear it down. They just desperately need, for example, pitching. www.spotrac.com/mlb/miami-marlins/payroll/2018/Reports say Jeter wants payroll to be in the 80 to 90 million range. Some have even said 60-65 million if Stanton is gone. Right now they have to be around 140-150 million, if those projections on Ozuna are correct. So your talking fire sale. So yea they could keep him, but it makes no sense. That's why everyone thinks he gets traded. I also don't agree it takes more than Sale did. Yea if you overlook the last 3 years and his contract, it would. To get to that salary level with Stanton you would have to get rid of all Vets. There bad pitching becomes worse. Why keep him if you are going to rebuild?
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 13, 2017 16:17:21 GMT -5
How about ERod as the headliner?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 13, 2017 18:44:30 GMT -5
How about ERod as the headliner? I was thinking about a Eduardo Rodriguez for Ozuna straight up offer just the other day. It definitely falls in line with what both teams are willing to do.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 13, 2017 23:33:43 GMT -5
E-Rod as the headliner for Stanton? Yes. E-Rod is alright as a pitcher, but that's all he is.
He has chronic knee issues. Whenever he is going well, he has issues with his knees, and then he comes back too soon and struggles before finally righting himself. He didn't exactly help his value in the post-season.
But Miami is probably looking for a young major league ready pitching help with upside and that description fits E-Rod.
With what the Sox already have, they can afford to part with E-Rod. I'd deal E-Rod and Chavis and a 3rd lesser piece for Stanton.
I still think Miami can get a better deal whether it's a deal headlined by Clint Frazier from the Yankees or even Puig or Pedersen from the Dodgers.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 14, 2017 11:36:07 GMT -5
ERod is the one young pitcher that we have. We have 4 more fairly cheap years from him. He also made some progress last year. Most games started, most innings, and highest strikeout rate. I don't know how you trade him, when in two years Sale, Pomeranz, and Porcello could all be gone.
Also if your adding Stanton or Ozuna, does that mean you're trading Bradley?
Everyone keeps thinking the Yankees go after Stanton and it makes little sense. They don't need hitting or power. So why make a big trade and take on that much payroll? They have needs, but they are 3B, 1B, DH and starting pitching.
The Dodgers who knows, but they are trying to lower payroll overall. They have been warned about their debt ratio. Nevermind Pedersen is not even close to some great piece. Decent player, that is going to start getting paid this offseason. If I was the Marlins I take ERod over Pedersen and it's not even close.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 14, 2017 16:28:03 GMT -5
It depends upon how you evaluate E-Rod. He still has potential but he's also had two straight season interrupted by knee issues, which can be an issue which can keep cropping up from time to time. That lowers his value a bit. Doesn't mean that he doesn't have value but if going forward he can't be counted on for much more than 130 innings, it really doesn't matter much about Sale, Pomeranz, and Porcello. E-Rod doesn't do you much good on the DL or struggling once he comes off.
If you think E-Rod is a middle of the rotation starter who can be counted on for 175 innings plus then that changes how you evaluate him and you wouldn't include him in a deal.
So what exactly is he then? Other than cheap?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 14, 2017 20:27:59 GMT -5
Prado (13.5, 15), Volquez (13), and Chen (10, 20, 22 vesting opt) are all making >$10M. Plus Ozuna is projected to get 10.9 in arbitration. Dealing Prado and Volquez in salary dumps (Chen is probably not tradeable until he shows health) certainly "lowers the payroll." Certainly, they could move Stanton, but they'd need to get more than even the Sale package. I can't see a team giving them that given his contract. They HAVE young pieces. Stanton, Yelich, Ozuna, Realmuto, Gordon, and even to an extent Bour are in place. They don't need to completely tear it down. They just desperately need, for example, pitching. www.spotrac.com/mlb/miami-marlins/payroll/2018/Reports say Jeter wants payroll to be in the 80 to 90 million range. Some have even said 60-65 million if Stanton is gone. Right now they have to be around 140-150 million, if those projections on Ozuna are correct. So your talking fire sale. So yea they could keep him, but it makes no sense. That's why everyone thinks he gets traded. I also don't agree it takes more than Sale did. Yea if you overlook the last 3 years and his contract, it would. To get to that salary level with Stanton you would have to get rid of all Vets. There bad pitching becomes worse. Why keep him if you are going to rebuild? www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/fish-bytes/article178711301.htmlCot's has them at $95.3M. They have a $2M option on Ichiro. MLBTR projects another $27.5 in arb, so that puts them at $124.8 with Ichiro. The Miami Herald has them approaching $140M, which sounds right with pre-arb guys. So yeah, that'd be $50M they'd need to cut. Plus Volquez just had TJ - he's not going anywhere. If $90M really is what they're going for, they definitely will have to move Stanton. That said, I don't think that means they'll take whatever they can get for him either. The Red Sox just really don't match up - the bullets have been spent in the minors, and the trade of major leaguers you'd need to make (you're starting with, say, Benintendi and Devers?) doesn't make much sense, especially given their payroll situation. You're probably right that Stanton's getting moved, but he ain't coming to Boston.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 15, 2017 12:57:28 GMT -5
When you read the Marlins had a 101 million payroll and lost 50 million it's almost unbelievable. They get things like luxary tax money etc. Nevermind Stanton was in beast mode, which you would think would have boosted attendance. So I tend to think they will try to get to the 60-65 million. If you do a fire Sale and still have a 90 million payroll they could lose 50 million again.
I don't really want Stanton because he cost a ton of money and prospects. Maybe as a fall back option depending on cost.
Last 3 years Sale bwar 6.6, 3.3, 4.9 fwar 5.1, 6.1, 5.2
Stanton bwar 3.7, 2.5, 7.6 fwar 6.9, 1.8, 3.9
So Stanton has the best year, but also the worst year. On average Sale was the better player over the last 3 years. Add in that Stanton makes about twice what Sale will. You also have have that very long contract that Stanton has. If he's good he can opt out, if he's bad he won't. I just don't see how he costs anywhere near what Sale did. Benintendi and Devers were better in 2017 than Stanton was in 2016 for example. When you add in contracts, Benintendi and Devers have more value than Stanton does. Those two have to be top 10-20 in most valuable assets in the game. Maybe a team offers a player like that, but I wouldn't bet on it. More likely it's a prospect in the minors that hasn't proven anything yet or someone like ERod. I can see them getting a good package, but not anything like Sale. Sale was the better more consistent player, with a great contract. More like Chavis and Groome type package compared to Moncada and Kopech. Still top 100 guys, but lower more risky type players. Just throwing out names, not saying that's what I would want to do.
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Post by splendidsplinter89 on Oct 15, 2017 14:11:59 GMT -5
Now that the Red Sox have reset their luxury tax limit, could they absorb large short term contracts to maximize their 2-3 year window?
Who says no, Sox or Marlins?
Eduardo Rodriguez ARB1 cost-controlled #4 SP Matt Barnes ARB1 cost-controlled 7th inning guy Jay Groome #1 prospect Sam Travis or Michael Chavis RH 1B to complement Bour Rowdy Ronny Raudes- awesome name as sweetener
for
Giancarlo Stanton 3/78 before opt out, 10/285 total Edinson Volquez 1/13 (assume his value to be close to Buchholz when he had 1/9) Brad Ziegler 1/9 (Tazawa is owed 1/7 but Z likely performs better)
The Red Sox should be preemptive in trading for international bonus money to offer Otani as much money upfront as possible. He could sign a 2 year deal for small money say $4 million, with the understanding that he would be offered a subsequent 4 year deal between $12 and $20 million.
If they really want to blow the bank, Logan Morrison may have turned a corner in his development and could possibly accept a 2 year deal for big money. He could play a sound 1b and provide a LH power bat to relieve some burden on Devers.
They could also gut the farm for the last two years of Jose Abreus contract.
The main idea is that the Red Sox could spend now and invest in their own youth later when Sale, Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, Vazquez, and Pomeranz hit Free Agency. Maybe they could even briefly reset the tax limit in 2-3 years. Gutting a farm system is never permanent, Championships are forever.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 15, 2017 14:49:16 GMT -5
I think the Red Sox. The Marlins could get ERod, Groome, Chavis, Barnes and Raudes. While unloading almost 50 million in payroll. Volquez is out for next year isn't he? So you are just eating 13 million, which is huge when luxuray tax dollars are added in.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 15, 2017 18:40:15 GMT -5
The Marlins say no to that deal. No question. Rodriguez didn't even crack the postseason rotation, Barnes didn't even make the postseason roster, Groome is nice but nowhere near good enough to be the top prospect coming back for a player of Stanton's caliber, Travis and Chavis may or may not even be average MLB regulars, and Raudes isn't a top 10 prospect in a weak farm system (although, whatever, he's fine as the fifth piece in a deal I guess).
Again, it's not like Stanton's contract is an albatross in a vacuum, like, say, Carl Crawford's was. He's actually good and worth the money. They're not going to take the pupu platter of "meh" for him just to unload his contract. Even if the goal is to save money, they're not going to make a terrible business decision that'll hamper their ability to make money later. If the $90M figure is true, they're willing to lose some money now (just a lot less) to make money later (by succeeding, you'd imagine). That's not unusual in business. Giving Stanton away does not help that business plan at all.
Look at a team like the White Sox or Braves. They could offer the Marlins like four prospects who are all better than Groome. If you're the Marlins, why do you accept the above package over what those kind of teams could give you? Before anyone poo-poos that, the Braves had an opening day payroll of $122M this year.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 16, 2017 8:50:50 GMT -5
You just picked the best two farm systems and made a point about what they could offer. You are 100% right. The question is do they want to trade those prospects and take on 10 years and 300 million potentially? He could opt out or maybe he doesn't. Any team has to be Ok paying him that contract. Most teams will be scared off by the combo of trading prospects and giving out a massive deal. I would be shocked if the White Sox trade for him in year one of the rebuild. Looking at the Braves do they seem like a team that should make that trade? All that young talent has yet to either reach the majors or do well in the majors. The majority of that team is older so-so players. They seem a few years away from making a move like that. So if your whole theory is what those two teams could offer, it seems very flawed in my opinion.
That offer gives them two 50-100 prospects, with high upsides. Sure they are a little risky. ERod has to be worth another top 50 guy right now. Have you checked out the Marlins pitching? He would have been #2 in war on that team last year. Nevermind he should have started over Porcello in playoffs in my opinion. While he has been slower than hoped in his development, his upside is that of a very good starting pitcher. He is improving and has very good stretches of games started as a 24 year old. Let's not act like his value is low because our old coach didn't want to use him and went with an older Vet.
That trade clears most of the payroll they need to clear. You completely overlooked taking on 13 million for an injured player. It gives them better pitching next year and in the future. Say whatever you want about ERod and Barnes but they would be huge additions to that team. You could be looking at their #2 starter and set-up guy next year. Travis could help them next year, Chavis maybe could also. While having the top pitching prospect in his class developing in the minors.
The notion that offer is giving away Stanton is funny.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 16, 2017 12:44:49 GMT -5
The Marlins are probably looking for young major league ready pitching, a young major league ready outfielder, and whatever else they can get.
The Sox would be dumb to deal Benintendi or Betts. JBJ is an unlikely possibility. I can see E-Rod pitching somebody the Marlins would target. If they deal Bour then perhaps Sam Travis is somebody that would fit the bill for them, even though he didn't exactly overwhelm in AAA. Chavis could be a player of interest for them.
I don't think that E-Rod, Chavis, plus other pieces is enough to get Stanton, but I don't think there's going to be a huge market for him. Not many teams can afford that contract.
I was thinking the Yankees with Clint Frazier as a main piece was a strong possibility, but the Yankees are trying to get under the limit this offseason, so unless they rid themselves of enough money they'll probably just wait until the following year and go after Harper instead.
The Dodgers are definitely a team that is a strong candidate to come away with Stanton. I could see Pedersen or perhaps more likely Puig being a key return piece in a deal, and the Dodgers have pitching to spare. I'd think they'd be the #1 candidate to go get Stanton.
The Cubs could also be a possibility. Theo has been enamored with him since Day 1. He tried to trade Manny Ramirez to the Marlins for prospect Stanton before the Marlins turned him down and Theo wound up dealing Manny in a 3 way for Jason Bay.
I can't really see the Braves making a move for him. Their problems run deeper than just needing a huge power bat. Their organization is in severe disarray at this point.
There are plenty of teams with better packages to offer than the Sox have, so I think one of those deep pocketed, the Dodgers would be my primary guess, to make a deal for Stanton.
I think the Red Sox will have to go after Martinez.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 17, 2017 11:20:57 GMT -5
You just picked the best two farm systems and made a point about what they could offer. You are 100% right. The question is do they want to trade those prospects and take on 10 years and 300 million potentially? He could opt out or maybe he doesn't. Any team has to be Ok paying him that contract. Most teams will be scared off by the combo of trading prospects and giving out a massive deal. I would be shocked if the White Sox trade for him in year one of the rebuild. Looking at the Braves do they seem like a team that should make that trade? All that young talent has yet to either reach the majors or do well in the majors. The majority of that team is older so-so players. They seem a few years away from making a move like that. So if your whole theory is what those two teams could offer, it seems very flawed in my opinion. That offer gives them two 50-100 prospects, with high upsides. Sure they are a little risky. ERod has to be worth another top 50 guy right now. Have you checked out the Marlins pitching? He would have been #2 in war on that team last year. Nevermind he should have started over Porcello in playoffs in my opinion. While he has been slower than hoped in his development, his upside is that of a very good starting pitcher. He is improving and has very good stretches of games started as a 24 year old. Let's not act like his value is low because our old coach didn't want to use him and went with an older Vet. That trade clears most of the payroll they need to clear. You completely overlooked taking on 13 million for an injured player. It gives them better pitching next year and in the future. Say whatever you want about ERod and Barnes but they would be huge additions to that team. You could be looking at their #2 starter and set-up guy next year. Travis could help them next year, Chavis maybe could also. While having the top pitching prospect in his class developing in the minors. The notion that offer is giving away Stanton is funny. My point was simply that I think other teams will be able to give up a lot more than the Red Sox will be willing to give up. Looking at the particular proposal, Barnes, Travis/Chavis, and Raudes basically have little to no value relative to the rest of the deal, so let's call it what it is: Rodriguez: 2-WAR MLB starter, who has higher upside and is under team control through 2021. Call him a #4 to be safe. Maybe blossoms into a low-end #2 or high-end #3 if you like him. Groome: A top 100 prospect, probably top 75-ish tops. Projects a little better than ERod but he's still 3 levels away and there are not insignificant injury concerns that'll scare some teams off, or at least cause them to de-value him. Volquez: Putting him on this side because you're agreeing to take his 1/13 remaining, although it's $11M AAV for CBT purposes. Will miss 2018. for Stanton: Huge contract but one of the game's best hitters coming off a 7-WAR season. Ziegler: Setup man probably overpaid at 1/9, but isn't without value. $8M AAV. To be honest, looking at this now... I almost think more strongly that the Sox don't make this deal. You're taking $47M off Miami's books and taking no money off of your own. You're pushing your 2019 first rounder back 10 spots, most likely, as well. I just don't think they have room to take on that much salary. Also, if you're trading for Stanton, you're probably trading one of the outfielders too, right? Seems silly not to include Bradley in that deal instead of ERod or Groome.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 17, 2017 14:23:52 GMT -5
My point is you can't just look at the teams that are able. They have to be able and willing to trade the prospects and take on the contract. That shrinks the pool of teams in a big way. It's the exact opposite of Chris Sale, which any team could have easily traded for. Stanton has a full no trade clause, which most likely will take some teams out of the bidding. For example rumors have it the Phillies are interested for some reason. I can see Stanton not wanting to play for a team that is years away from competing. This is much more like the ARod trade than the Chris Sale trade.
At the same time I don't see the Marlins wanting to eat money like the Rangers did. They are pushing the narrative of the opt out. Wanting teams to look at the deal as closer to a 3 year around 80 million deal. Trying to get them to overlook the downfall of what could be a 10 year almost 300 million deal. David Price's is living proof how what seemed like a certain opt-out can easily change after a few years. Stanton while a very good player isn't ARod. He hasn't been nearly as dominate year in and year out. The last two years are similar to Bradley, just reversed. A year ago coming off 2.5 and 3.7 war seasons Stanton's contract looked horrible. He's a very good player, but there is some big time risk there. He doesn't have 3 straight 6 plus war seasons, or even 3 straight 4 or even 3 war seasons in a row. He has 35.1 bwar in 8 seasons for a 4.4 war per season average. He is going into his prime, so I could see a projection of like 5.5 war over the next 3 seasons, with upside, but also downside.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 17, 2017 17:20:43 GMT -5
I don't get these arguments that go on forever. I bet it's much more rare that there is a baseball trade where the consensus is that it's exactly what was expected.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 30, 2017 19:29:35 GMT -5
Interesting blurb on mlbtraderumors.com re: Stanton and the Marlins:
"The Marlins have identified a “preferred path” to paring the team’s slate of player contracts for the 2018 season down to $90MM, according to a report from Barry Jackson and Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. Specifically, the club would like to move the contract of star outfielder Giancarlo Stanton along with those of infielders Dee Gordon and Martin Prado.
Talk of a possible Stanton swap has been building in earnest for months. And it comes as little surprise to hear that the team is indeed preparing to market him, given its reported intentions of making significant payroll reductions in the first offseason under new ownership. Obvious as it may be that now is the time to part with the slugger, it’s notable that the team has evidently chosen its direction even as it prepares to sit down with him in a few days’ time. (Stanton, of course, enjoys full no-trade protection and so will have a major say in things.) And the team’s reported intentions perhaps hint that the focus could be on moving all of Stanton’s salary rather than maximizing the prospect return."
That last part is really interesting. Whoever acquires Stanton is getting his full salary, therefore most likely a minimal prospect package. And there are very few teams that can afford his entire salary, thus limiting the pool of teams.
The Sox don't really match up that well with the Marlins other than Chavis to play 3b and if the Sox have to pay full salary not sure I'd like to see Chavis dealt. The Sox have already spent their stack of minor league 2b unless Miami likes Lin. The Sox don't really have an OF who'd interest the Marlins.
I would think the Dodgers can afford the contract and can probably match the B prospects to the Marlins' needs better.
But if Stanton is virtually a free agent signing rather than a guy who would deplete the farm, it makes the viability of getting him as more of a possibility than it would be otherwise.
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Post by mredsox89 on Oct 30, 2017 21:41:37 GMT -5
If you assume minimal prospects as a package for Stanton, you're looking at roughly 10 years, 300M for ages 29-39 with the presumption (in Boston) as the DH with no defensive value.
I'm not sure he'd get that on the open market, especially when compared to Harper/Machado, who will both be getting contracts at 26 years old with plus defensive value. Even if they get 400M/10 years, which is plausible at best right now, they're three years younger and can play defense. I'm just not sure I'd take on the Stanton deal in full, even if you're not trading anything for him
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 31, 2017 1:33:13 GMT -5
Stanton and then Harper and Machado for just bucks (or nearly so in Stanton's case). That's industry-altering.
Here are the tax commitments for 2018, 2019, and 2020 for the deepest pocketed teams, including benefits and optioned players but excluding arb-eligible and pre-arb MLB guys. I'm including obvious team options only, as listed.
NYY: 135, 86, 78 LAD: 174, 101, 83 SF: 188, 130, 118 (Bumgarner) Bos: 149, 113, 62 (Sale) ChC: 101, 95, 88 (Quintana, Rizzo) NYM: 85, 66, 62 StL: 127, 96, 98 (Gyorko cheap) LAA: 114, 103, 95 Was: 169, 91, 70 Phi: 37, 45, 23
Two general points. First, all of these guys are of more interest to teams with good lineups that want to move up into the next tier of contention than to teams with great lineups that are strong from top to bottom, in part because the latter usually means you expect to commit more dollars in the future. The Yankees and Dogers are exceptions; they can afford to build uber-teams.
Second, Stanton's WAR has gone 6.5, 3.7, 2.5, 7.6. He's definitely more tradeable a year from now if he has another 7.0-ish season, and he's a much more obvious target if you've just been outbid for Harper. The question is: why would a team that thinks they can land Harper a year from now want Stanton this winter? Well, Stanton's AAV is only $25M, that's why. That makes him interesting to everyone other than the Yankee and Dodgers. It does go on, of course, for ten more years, which limits your flexibility at getting under the cap every few years. He also actually costs an extra $35M above the AAV.
Team by team:
Presuming the Yankees can only afford one of the three, they absolutely wait a year to see how good Miguel Andujar is at 3B. Then they can either let Brett Gardner walk and try to outbid everyone for Harper, or they can resign Gardner (their actual MVP this year including clutch) and go after Machado, with Stanton as an option if they somehow get outbid for both.
The Dodgers have Alex Verdugo ready to take over LF, and you want to find out how good he is, and they can absolutely afford to do that. In 2019, they're probably moving Chris Taylor to 2B and letting Forsythe go, so that's when they can be expected to go hard after Harper, with Stanton as an alternative. Less likely, they could instead go after Machado and trade Turner with 2/$32 (AAV) left on his contract.
Stanton would provide more bang for buck at DH than JDM, and better defense as a 4th OFer. He also gives you the option of later playing RF, moving Mookie to CF, and dealing JBJ with a year or two left on his deal. You might jump at Stanton after another big year, but right now it seems like it's a coin toss as to whether you get your money's worth. This is worth watching, though. It would certainly sell some tickets. They'd be hard-pressed to add a 1B and stay under $237M in this scenario, but it might be worth it to do so.
The Cubs have a real need for an OF who can hit and actually play the OF. They're an interesting candidate.
The Mets' big need is CF, as they have Conforto and Cespedes for the corners. Stanton seems too expensive for the Cardinals and Angels, and the Nats obviously want to re-sign Harper. The Phillies are an intriguing destination and could conceivably also be a player for Harper, but they'd wait a year to see how good Nick Williams and Aaron Altherr fare.
So it's hard to see anyone but the Cubs and Red Sox going after Stanton. Hmm.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 31, 2017 2:45:05 GMT -5
FWIW, Stanton was on Jimmy Kimmel a few days ago and was surprisingly open about the chatter. A few items from what I remember: 1. He's from LA and would therefore like to play for the Dodgers 2. He would not want to play for the Mets. He wants to beat the Mets as they are division rivals. 3. He would happily play DH for the Red Sox although he would like to get occasional playing time in the field. 4. He has not spoken to anyone in the organization about his future with the team. He has plans to meet with them after the world series.
The way he was speaking so openly indicates to me that he expects to be traded. And it seems like the no trade clause won't be an issue for the Red Sox. If the pricetag is as low as Eric thinks then it's a no brainier (I'd like to see him learn 1b and DH). But great talents tend to be traded for more than their face value, so we'll have to see.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 31, 2017 3:57:51 GMT -5
If they are just going to give away Stanton, then you really have to jump on that if you're the Sox. Hopefully they can fit him for a first base glove and hopefully he's willing to play there.
This off-season just went from good to awesome in seconds.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 31, 2017 9:50:21 GMT -5
In the 2018 thread (move here now!) I laid out the rationale for almost every team wanting to wait a year before trading for Stanton.
The other thing is that the assumption that he has significant positive value on that contract seems to be wrong. The relatively low AAV is offset by the length. Using the standard aging curve, he projects to have no value at ages 36 and 37 and very little at age 35.
First, I don't think you can count on baseball salaries continuing to outpace inflation. Using various inflation rates since 1980 (which I happened to have in a spreadsheet for adjusting movie grosses, I think the only time my two Excel obsessions have ever boinked one another), I get 33 WAR as what he'll be paid for over 10 years. It could be as low as 29 if inflation is higher. but it's tough to get it lower.
If you take a 5-4-3 projection of his WAR and use a standard aging curve, you get a 21.6 WAR projection for Stanton.
Prorate 2016 and 2015 to 638 PA (his second-best career figure), you get 30.0.
Eliminate 2016, when he played hurt, and you get his last 3 years as 7.0, 7.4, and 6.5 WAR per 638 PA. That's how good he's been -- 7.0 WAR -- and with the standard aging curve you get a 36.0 WAR projection. You get 37.3 if you bump him to 150 games per year from 145. But that assumes he never has a year when he has a serious injury, which is unrealistic.
Oh, and these figures don't include any decline in defensive value, which will be significant, since he's actually quite a good defender.
When you include defensive value decline and his injury history, it looks like a negative value contract unless baseball salaries continue to skyrocket relative to everything else in our economy. Can you count on that?
I think I would roll the dice and take the contract off their hands. I'd want Bour for Chavis, Hembree, etc., too, and if the Cubs were bidding against me and offering some positive value, I might make the etc. attractive (maybe even Ockimey). But the scenarios being tossed around make no sense. They're based on the notion that at 25 AAV against the cap he's a significant bargain, but that's true for the first half of the contract only. Then he starts hemorrhaging value back.
Edit: tomorrow I may redo this with the separate aging curve for elite hitters, and include defensive value decline.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 31, 2017 12:56:52 GMT -5
Stanton and then Harper and Machado for just bucks (or nearly so in Stanton's case). That's industry-altering. Here are the tax commitments for 2018, 2019, and 2020 for the deepest pocketed teams, including benefits and optioned players but excluding arb-eligible and pre-arb MLB guys. I'm including obvious team options only, as listed. NYY: 135, 86, 78 LAD: 174, 101, 83 SF: 188, 130, 118 (Bumgarner) Bos: 149, 113, 62 (Sale) ChC: 101, 95, 88 (Quintana, Rizzo) NYM: 85, 66, 62 StL: 127, 96, 98 (Gyorko cheap) LAA: 114, 103, 95 Was: 169, 91, 70 Phi: 37, 45, 23 Two general points. First, all of these guys are of more interest to teams with good lineups that want to move up into the next tier of contention than to teams with great lineups that are strong from top to bottom, in part because the latter usually means you expect to commit more dollars in the future. The Yankees and Dogers are exceptions; they can afford to build uber-teams. Second, Stanton's WAR has gone 6.5, 3.7, 2.5, 7.6. He's definitely more tradeable a year from now if he has another 7.0-ish season, and he's a much more obvious target if you've just been outbid for Harper. The question is: why would a team that thinks they can land Harper a year from now want Stanton this winter? Well, Stanton's AAV is only $25M, that's why. That makes him interesting to everyone other than the Yankee and Dodgers. It does go on, of course, for ten more years, which limits your flexibility at getting under the cap every few years. He also actually costs an extra $35M above the AAV. Team by team: Presuming the Yankees can only afford one of the three, they absolutely wait a year to see how good Miguel Andujar is at 3B. Then they can either let Brett Gardner walk and try to outbid everyone for Harper, or they can resign Gardner (their actual MVP this year including clutch) and go after Machado, with Stanton as an option if they somehow get outbid for both. The Dodgers have Alex Verdugo ready to take over LF, and you want to find out how good he is, and they can absolutely afford to do that. In 2019, they're probably moving Chris Taylor to 2B and letting Forsythe go, so that's when they can be expected to go hard after Harper, with Stanton as an alternative. Less likely, they could instead go after Machado and trade Turner with 2/$32 (AAV) left on his contract. Stanton would provide more bang for buck at DH than JDM, and better defense as a 4th OFer. He also gives you the option of later playing RF, moving Mookie to CF, and dealing JBJ with a year or two left on his deal. You might jump at Stanton after another big year, but right now it seems like it's a coin toss as to whether you get your money's worth. This is worth watching, though. It would certainly sell some tickets. They'd be hard-pressed to add a 1B and stay under $237M in this scenario, but it might be worth it to do so. The Cubs have a real need for an OF who can hit and actually play the OF. They're an interesting candidate. The Mets' big need is CF, as they have Conforto and Cespedes for the corners. Stanton seems too expensive for the Cardinals and Angels, and the Nats obviously want to re-sign Harper. The Phillies are an intriguing destination and could conceivably also be a player for Harper, but they'd wait a year to see how good Nick Williams and Aaron Altherr fare. So it's hard to see anyone but the Cubs and Red Sox going after Stanton. Hmm. I agree the Cubs and Red Sox are candidates to deal for Stanton but I think you're dismissing the Dodgers way too easily. Alex Verdugo is a nice prospect but he hasn't shown any major power yet, although he's young and it could wind up a part of his game, but Stanton is exactly what the Dodgers would want, a guy who wants to play with them who bats cleanup giving them a top 5 of Taylor, Seager, Turner, Stanton, and Bellinger (and then Puig), giving them twin lefty and righty mashers. Verdugo is a nice player but the Dodgers will either win the Series or fall just short. They are near the peak and will be looking to immediately sustain it and Stanton fits that bill perfectly. I honestly think (and I could be wrong as I've been wrong many times) that he's headed to LA. I could easily see Verdugo being somebody the Dodgers trade away to secure Stanton, as the Marlins will be looking for a young major league ready outfielder (something the Sox don't have in the high minors and surrendering Benintendi would be insane) with major upside that can replace Stanton in the outfield alignment.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 31, 2017 14:29:27 GMT -5
If they are just going to give away Stanton, then you really have to jump on that if you're the Sox. Hopefully they can fit him for a first base glove and hopefully he's willing to play there. This off-season just went from good to awesome in seconds. It says they want to trade Stanton. It doesn't say they want to give him away. Don't assume that's what's happening. Add me to those who don't think the Sox line up as a trade partner. But for shiggles... I think you'd need something like Benintendi, Groome, Houck, and a Shawaryn-esque sort of guy, maybe?
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Post by jmei on Oct 31, 2017 15:17:45 GMT -5
Add me to those who don't think the Sox line up as a trade partner. But for shiggles... I think you'd need something like Benintendi, Groome, Houck, and a Shawaryn-esque sort of guy, maybe? I'm curious why you think such a significant trade package would be required. I don't think the Marlins will just give him away, but I do think that Stanton's contract significantly diminishes his trade value. For instance, both Jonah Keri's 2017 preseason trade value piece (Benintendi 21, Stanton not ranked) and Dave Cameron's 2017 midseason trade value piece (Benintendi 26, Stanton not ranked) ranked Benintendi significantly ahead of Stanton in terms of trade value. The full 2017 season has obviously done a lot a lot to shake that up (with Stanton having been one of the best players in baseball and having had a monster second half), but I think it's still hard to argue that Stanton has significantly more trade value than Benintendi does.
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