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Post by jchang on Sept 24, 2017 21:13:37 GMT -5
Let's say we begin the final series 3 games behind, win the first two against the Astros. Then we could get home field if we the next two. Would you want to start Sale in game 3 and Pom in 4? With the first alds game on 5 October?
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 24, 2017 21:31:13 GMT -5
Doesn't that depend on who the Astro's star as they would be in a similar position of trying to gain Home Field? If it were against a third team I would say no since we've already shown we can win in Houston.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 24, 2017 22:17:18 GMT -5
Home field isn't a bigger advantage than being able to start Sale twice in a five-game series.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 25, 2017 1:59:29 GMT -5
Is there another professional sport happening? Our odds of winning were 6.4% after Hamilton scored. It was the 3rd most impressive comeback of the year in terms of low WP, but that we did it against Raisel Iglesias probably makes it the best. He was 5th among MLB relievers in Win Probability Added coming into today's game. He now ranks 13th (pending other guys who may have pitched). Interestingly, his other two big meltdowns were against the Dodgers and Nationals. Since August 11 we are 7-14 after our odds of winning have fallen below 10%. That's five extra wins. We are 26-0 after getting to 90%, which is another 2.5 wins. That's the whole pennant race right there. How unusual is 7 wins from below 10% in the last 39 games? Since the start of 2016*, we had been averaging 1 such win per 57 games (5 in the previous 288 games -- while losing 9). The odds against that improvement happening in a random simulation (say, if you were replaying the two seasons with Diamond Mind) are 2,307,686 to 1. One would venture a guess that the team has acquired some confidence in their ability to come from behind, while the bullpen keeps thing where they are. This road trip? We were 4-1 after falling below 15%. Who recalls the nickname of the 1967 Sox? *(I could have sworn I kept this data for 2015, but I can't find it. And I found my 2014 and 2013 spreadsheets, I thought, and now can't find them again. I may have to do 2015 over, and look harder ...) I'll guess GO Go Sox. Can remember cars refusing to go into Sumner tunnel when Yaz was at bat. He seldom disappointed that season. The Impossible Dream Team. This was the theme song of the record album they made after the season (but not the same version): Smart Philippines is having some major internet issue. I ended up following the game on gameday on my wife's cell phone. At an internet cafe (Globe) to see the highlights. Betts double then followed by going home was one of the best sequences of the year. I remember a comment by the announcers that when interviewed, virtually the entire Reds team said they were most looking forward to seeing Mookie live. Guess they got a better show than they thought, especially including the throws to 3B, 2 assists, how often do you see that. I've only seen the Cozart throw though.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 25, 2017 3:30:54 GMT -5
Home field isn't a bigger advantage than being able to start Sale twice in a five-game series. But if you start Sale twice in the first round, you only have him for one of the first 6 games in the second round if you get there. Obviously, the goal is to win the first series in four games or less.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 25, 2017 3:45:05 GMT -5
Home field isn't a bigger advantage than being able to start Sale twice in a five-game series. But if you start Sale twice in the first round, you only have him for one of the first 6 games in the second round if you get there. Obviously, the goal is to win the first series in four games or less. You worry about that problem in the second round. Also, whoever Sale is matching up in Game 3 of the second round would be at a major disadvantage, since he is pitching against Sale. Can't plan ahead in the playoffs. Do or die. That is the name of the game, especially in a short tournament like the ALDS.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 25, 2017 7:20:14 GMT -5
Home field isn't a bigger advantage than being able to start Sale twice in a five-game series. But if you start Sale twice in the first round, you only have him for one of the first 6 games in the second round if you get there. Obviously, the goal is to win the first series in four games or less. If you can only start Sale once in a five-game series against a team like the Astros, his availability in the ALCS is much less likely to be an issue.
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art
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Post by art on Sept 25, 2017 8:05:06 GMT -5
It seems to me that the logical choice would have been to flip Sale and Pomeranz, start Sale today on normal rest, again Saturday on normal rest and in the playoff opener on normal rest. But what do I know?
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Post by coachmac on Sept 25, 2017 10:17:14 GMT -5
I've got tickets to the Saturday game. I've never been to Great America Ballpark before. I'm open to suggestions on a good lunch/pre-game place. Holy Grail across from the ballpark seems to be the go-to place. It was good and it had that baseball bar atmosphere, but really crowded. If you're looking to eat, I'd get in there pretty early... then maybe nurse a beverage or two in the meantime if .... My son and I took in Saturday and Sunday games;we followed your recommendation and visited the Holy Frail. Great recommendation!
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 25, 2017 11:24:00 GMT -5
Holy Grail across from the ballpark seems to be the go-to place. It was good and it had that baseball bar atmosphere, but really crowded. If you're looking to eat, I'd get in there pretty early... then maybe nurse a beverage or two in the meantime if .... My son and I took in Saturday and Sunday games;we followed your recommendation and visited the Holy Frail. Great recommendation! Glad it worked out!
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Post by jchang on Sept 25, 2017 11:42:54 GMT -5
It seems to me that the logical choice would have been to flip Sale and Pomeranz, start Sale today on normal rest, again Saturday on normal rest and in the playoff opener on normal rest. But what do I know? Assuming that Pom and Sale do not pitch (more than 1-2 innings) on 30 Sep/1 Oct, I would make today a bullpen game, Sale pitch tomorrow as scheduled, Pom on Wed, then rest until the first ALDS games (presuming that the Sox will win 3 of the remaining games, regardless of what MFY does). Porcello, ERod and Fister can each pitch 1 game of the series against the Astros, in part to see which of Porcello or Fister should be the game 4 starter, with one bull pen game in that series as well.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 25, 2017 11:46:28 GMT -5
It seems to me that the logical choice would have been to flip Sale and Pomeranz, start Sale today on normal rest, again Saturday on normal rest and in the playoff opener on normal rest. But what do I know? He desperately needs extra rest. In the second half of the season (17th start and later), here is his ERA (adjusted for inherited runners) based on days rest: Rest GS ERA 4 days 34 3.64 5 days 44 3.72 6+ 10 1.80 He's started 17 games on 4 or 5 days rest late in the season (28th start or later) and has a 4.74 true ERA. His one start on long rest was 1 ER plus 1.0 saved by the bullpen in 7 IP. The obvious thing to do is to to swap him with Porcello and give him 6 days rest instead of 5. He's much likelier to be good on 6 days rest than on 5, and he then starts the DS with 7 days rest. A less obvious thing to do is to insert a Price-started bullpen game into the Blue Jay series and have Sale start the Astros series on 7 days rest, and start the DS on 6. But I haven't yet looked into whether he's less effective facing a team multiple times in a season. If he loses no effectiveness, you'd rather see him beat the Astros than the Blue Jays, in the off chance we can seize home field advantage.
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Post by jchang on Sept 25, 2017 12:24:04 GMT -5
Sale pitched on Wed 20 Sep, Thu was an off day, so tomorrow would be 6 days.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 25, 2017 12:26:25 GMT -5
Sale pitched on Wed 20 Sep, Thu was an off day, so tomorrow would be 6 days. The 20th to the 26th is five days rest. You don't count the day he pitches. That's why five-man rotations use 4 days rest when there are no off-days.
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