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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 15, 2017 10:59:50 GMT -5
So with the new CBA we would only give up a draft pick and the international pool if we sign a QO guy for over $50 million right? Could we just give Santana a 2 yr deal at a higher AAV? How would they treat a player option that would take it over $50? I think it's only based off guaranteed money. Options aren't included, I would think. That's a good question though. I'm sure buyouts are a part of the 50 million dollar equation also because that is guaranteed money. The $50 million has to do with what compensation his former team would receive. It doesn't have to do with what the signing team gives up. The Red Sox would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K for signing Santana. Indians' compensation: A) If he signs for at least $50 million: Pick between 1st round and Competitive Balance Round A B) If he signs for less than $50 million: Pick after Competitive Balance Round B
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 18, 2017 11:57:23 GMT -5
Lucas Duda. Reports say Sox have been in touch and he's perfect. Much better right handed hitter and plays a decent 1B. Better yet he should fit in our 237 budget. Duda indeed has a big platoon split, so, like Moreland, he could platoon with Hanley. He was great at age 28 and 29 for the Mets but is coming off two years where his defense was average and his bat fell off, wRC+ of 91 and 113. He's a big gamble to bounce back and will probably land a 1-year, prove-you're-still-good deal with a club that hopes to contend rather than expects to. He also has some splits that show he's less valuable than his raw numbers. His career OPS splits by leverage are 744, 740, 872 (high, medium, low), which means he's fattening his numbers against the crap pitching in blowouts. He has huge splits for times facing a pitcher (766, 846, 943), which probably means he's a smart hitter, but it also means he can't hit relievers well (720), which means that he's really bad Late and Close (647 in 530 PA). Some of that is very likely because he was facing LOOGYs and they didn't pinch-hit for him, but his true performance against RHR is probably about 735 or 740. Which is not the guy you think you're paying for (796 career). He does way too much of his damage against bad pitchers and tired pitchers, and he may be suffering an early decline. Mitch Moreland will give you more for less money (he's not being listed in any top 50 FA reports, quite possibly because people believe he's not a good for for any park but Fenway. Which may well be true).
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 18, 2017 15:20:14 GMT -5
Lucas Duda. Reports say Sox have been in touch and he's perfect. Much better right handed hitter and plays a decent 1B. Better yet he should fit in our 237 budget. Duda indeed has a big platoon split, so, like Moreland, he could platoon with Hanley. He was great at age 28 and 29 for the Mets but is coming off two years where his defense was average and his bat fell off, wRC+ of 91 and 113. He's a big gamble to bounce back and will probably land a 1-year, prove-you're-still-good deal with a club that hopes to contend rather than expects to. He also has some splits that show he's less valuable than his raw numbers. His career OPS splits by leverage are 744, 740, 872 (high, medium, low), which means he's fattening his numbers against the crap pitching in blowouts. He has huge splits for times facing a pitcher (766, 846, 943), which probably means he's a smart hitter, but it also means he can't hit relievers well (720), which means that he's really bad Late and Close (647 in 530 PA). Some of that is very likely because he was facing LOOGYs and they didn't pinch-hit for him, but his true performance against RHR is probably about 735 or 740. Which is not the guy you think you're paying for (796 career). He does way too much of his damage against bad pitchers and tired pitchers, and he may be suffering an early decline. Mitch Moreland will give you more for less money (he's not being listed in any top 50 FA reports, quite possibly because people believe he's not a good for for any park but Fenway. Which may well be true). Duda is an extreme split guy, that screams platoon. Career versus RHP .842 OPS, LHP .659. Last year he was .867 against RHP, Moreland was .784 and has career splits of .779 and .675. So unless your leverage stats are for only RHP those numbers don't mean much. His lefty stats are so bad they are going to pull down his numbers. Any smart manager is going to bring in a lefty to face him in high leverage situations. On the Red Sox I would hope our other hitters would be of more worry to the other team and they save their pitchers for Stanton/Martinez, Betts, Pedroia, Benintendi, etc or not use them because of the hitter behind him. On the Mets he didn't have that type of depth untill first half of last year. How were his leverage stats in 2017 on the Mets with some lineup depth? Just the Mets, don't include after he got traded. The Mets have the best lineup in all his years with the team and he has his best OPS season of his career. Eric what are the league averages for times facing a pitcher? Most players get better the more times they see the pitchers. What are Morelands splits? I would love to know the amount of times a manager brought in a lefty to face Moreland vs Duda. Given the teams and players they played with I would guess Duda has a massive lead and thus his numbers have been effected more. Moreland doesn't have that huge split in OPS and he was burried on some very good Ranger teams. Looking at the last 3 years I would say at worst Duda is a league average defender. So it really comes down to if you want more D with Moreland or more bat with Duda. Give me more bat please, I have no problem with Duda's D. He seems like a perfect fit. Edit; Putting a lefty killer like Devers behind him would really help late in games and epically in the 5th, 6th and 7th innings when most managers don't want to bring in a lefty specialist for just one batter.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 18, 2017 15:53:38 GMT -5
I like Duda... if a team brings in a lefty to face him, pinch hit with Ramirez or Brentz.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 18, 2017 16:40:26 GMT -5
Duda indeed has a big platoon split, so, like Moreland, he could platoon with Hanley. He was great at age 28 and 29 for the Mets but is coming off two years where his defense was average and his bat fell off, wRC+ of 91 and 113. He's a big gamble to bounce back and will probably land a 1-year, prove-you're-still-good deal with a club that hopes to contend rather than expects to. He also has some splits that show he's less valuable than his raw numbers. His career OPS splits by leverage are 744, 740, 872 (high, medium, low), which means he's fattening his numbers against the crap pitching in blowouts. He has huge splits for times facing a pitcher (766, 846, 943), which probably means he's a smart hitter, but it also means he can't hit relievers well (720), which means that he's really bad Late and Close (647 in 530 PA). Some of that is very likely because he was facing LOOGYs and they didn't pinch-hit for him, but his true performance against RHR is probably about 735 or 740. Which is not the guy you think you're paying for (796 career). He does way too much of his damage against bad pitchers and tired pitchers, and he may be suffering an early decline. Mitch Moreland will give you more for less money (he's not being listed in any top 50 FA reports, quite possibly because people believe he's not a good for for any park but Fenway. Which may well be true). Duda is an extreme split guy, that screams platoon. Career versus RHP .842 OPS, LHP .659. Last year he was .867 against RHP, Moreland was .784 and has career splits of .779 and .675. So unless your leverage stats are for only RHP those numbers don't mean much. His lefty stats are so bad they are going to pull down his numbers. Any smart manager is going to bring in a lefty to face him in high leverage situations. On the Red Sox I would hope our other hitters would be of more worry to the other team and they save their pitchers for Stanton/Martinez, Betts, Pedroia, Benintendi, etc or not use them because of the hitter behind him. On the Mets he didn't have that type of depth untill first half of last year. How were his leverage stats in 2017 on the Mets with some lineup depth? Just the Mets, don't include after he got traded. The Mets have the best lineup in all his years with the team and he has his best OPS season of his career. Eric what are the league averages for times facing a pitcher? Most players get better the more times they see the pitchers. What are Morelands splits? I would love to know the amount of times a manager brought in a lefty to face Moreland vs Duda. Given the teams and players they played with I would guess Duda has a massive lead and thus his numbers have been effected more. Moreland doesn't have that huge split in OPS and he was burried on some very good Ranger teams. Looking at the last 3 years I would say at worst Duda is a league average defender. So it really comes down to if you want more D with Moreland or more bat with Duda. Give me more bat please, I have no problem with Duda's D. He seems like a perfect fit. Edit; Putting a lefty killer like Devers behind him would really help late in games and epically in the 5th, 6th and 7th innings when most managers don't want to bring in a lefty specialist for just one batter. FanGraphs' wonderful Splits Tool can answer a lot of these questions. For each of these splits, here are each player's career wRC+ vs RHP, wRC+ vs LHP, then his percentage of PA vs. LHP. Note that their High Leverage Samples are very small (Duda has just 201 PA in his career), and Medium Leverage in late innings is plenty important. Lucas DudaOverall: 132, 84, .240
Excluding low leverage: 111, 70, .237Same, innings 7 and later: 73, 34, .332Mitch MorelandOverall: 104, 79, . 220
Excluding low leverage: 98, 109, .209
Same, innings 7 and later: 75, 106, .251
Moreland's entire platoon split is in low leverage .
More about all this later, but keep in mind that Moreland in Fenway projects to be quite a bit above his career numbers, while Duda, coming off two off years, projects to be rather lower than his.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 18, 2017 17:22:17 GMT -5
Duda is an extreme split guy, that screams platoon. Career versus RHP .842 OPS, LHP .659. Last year he was .867 against RHP, Moreland was .784 and has career splits of .779 and .675. So unless your leverage stats are for only RHP those numbers don't mean much. His lefty stats are so bad they are going to pull down his numbers. Any smart manager is going to bring in a lefty to face him in high leverage situations. On the Red Sox I would hope our other hitters would be of more worry to the other team and they save their pitchers for Stanton/Martinez, Betts, Pedroia, Benintendi, etc or not use them because of the hitter behind him. On the Mets he didn't have that type of depth untill first half of last year. How were his leverage stats in 2017 on the Mets with some lineup depth? Just the Mets, don't include after he got traded. The Mets have the best lineup in all his years with the team and he has his best OPS season of his career. Eric what are the league averages for times facing a pitcher? Most players get better the more times they see the pitchers. What are Morelands splits? I would love to know the amount of times a manager brought in a lefty to face Moreland vs Duda. Given the teams and players they played with I would guess Duda has a massive lead and thus his numbers have been effected more. Moreland doesn't have that huge split in OPS and he was burried on some very good Ranger teams. Looking at the last 3 years I would say at worst Duda is a league average defender. So it really comes down to if you want more D with Moreland or more bat with Duda. Give me more bat please, I have no problem with Duda's D. He seems like a perfect fit. Edit; Putting a lefty killer like Devers behind him would really help late in games and epically in the 5th, 6th and 7th innings when most managers don't want to bring in a lefty specialist for just one batter. FanGraphs' wonderful Splits Tool can answer a lot of these questions. For each of these splits, here are each player's career wRC+ vs RHP, wRC+ vs LHP, then his percentage of PA vs. LHP. Note that their High Leverage Samples are very small (Duda has just 201 PA in his career), and Medium Leverage in late innings is plenty important. Lucas DudaOverall: 132, 84, .240
Excluding low leverage: 111, 70, .237Same, innings 7 and later: 73, 34, .332Mitch MorelandOverall: 104, 79, . 220
Excluding low leverage: 98, 109, .209
Same, innings 7 and later: 75, 106, .251
Moreland's entire platoon split is in low leverage .
More about all this later, but keep in mind that Moreland in Fenway projects to be quite a bit above his career numbers, while Duda, coming off two off years, projects to be rather lower than his.
So that looks like what I expected if I am reading that right. He had a 111 wRC+ in high and medium leverage situations and 132 overall against RHP. LHP was dragging down his numbers. Last year Nunez at 133 and Devers at 111 were the only guys equal or better overall, granted those numbers include both RH and LH stats. So if you use him only against RHP he could be a weapon, nothing wrong with a 111 wRC+ in high and medium leverage situations.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 18, 2017 17:37:24 GMT -5
Duda hit the following percentage of his HRs in HL, ML and LL situations: 19%, 28% and 53%.
This shows he hit 47% of his HRs in med or high level situations.
For comparison sake, look at two of the best players in baseball.
Bryce Harper: 17%, 36% and 47%. So, 53% of his HRs in med or high level situations.
Mike Trout: 17%, 33% and 50%. So, 50% of his HRs in med or high level situations.
* notice Duda actually hit a higher percentage of his HRs, than each Harper and Trout, in high level situations.
For whatever that is worth.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 18, 2017 21:00:05 GMT -5
I'll go with fangraphs, from what eric said/ stats included on the other thread, and from what I've seen with my own eyes. Duda is not a player the Sox should get. IMO he's not that good. I think Eric is overlooking the effect Duda's massive splits and the team he played on effects on his numbers. He was one of the Mets top and only Bats for years. We wouldn't use him that way and could provide him lineup depth and a guy like Devers to protect him. If you want a guy that will be cheaper and kills lefty pitching Duda has to be the best option. He's like a righty killing Chris Young. He would be a platoon guy, not a full-time starter. You could use Ramirez and Brentz for lefties. Lucas Duda has had 286 PA in his career vs. RHP in the 7th inning and later in other than low leverage. He's hit .171 / .311 / .295 (73 wRC+). Re playing for the Mets, you're making an assumption that all hitters thrive when they're in a good lineup, and that's not true at all. Some guys are harmed by lineup protection because they're simply not as good as their reputation; if pitchers are forced to come right after them, they have unexpected success. Lucas Duda is the poster child for this. It contributes to the split I just gave (pitchers never come right after you in low leverage, but will do so pretty consistently late and close), and it explains his career 697 / 780 / 868 split versus power, neutral, and finesse pitchers, but there's a more direct way to assess it. We can look at how Duda has done in his career in base-out situations where pitchers felt they couldn't walk him, which is to say, with 1B occupied and less than 2 outs. It's not pretty -- .219 / .312 / .414 (PA weighted by the degree of walk-aversion in each different situation). If you bat him in front of J.D. Martinez, he loses .020 points of EqA, which is enormous. The guy who gains the most value being protected by an elite hitter is Mitch Moreland, who gains .009 points, all of it via a huge improvement with RISP.
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1B in 2018
Nov 18, 2017 22:51:04 GMT -5
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Post by jdb on Nov 18, 2017 22:51:04 GMT -5
Should the Duda late inning woes be attributed to the fact he's facing a bunch of Loogys?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 19, 2017 0:29:03 GMT -5
Should the Duda late inning woes be attributed to the fact he's facing a bunch of Loogys? I'm guessing you didn't see the last post on your phone ... he has a career 73 wRC+, including a .295 SA, in 286 career PAs versus righties, 7th inning and on, low leverage excluded. He can't hit good pitchers at all the first time he sees them, and he especially doesn't hit them well when they challenge him in the strike zone. He succeeds by hitting poor pitchers well, and (it seems) by figuring out how they're pitching him over the course of a game. Now, Mitch Moreland in the same split hasn't been any better, 75 wRC+. But at first this is extremely puzzling, because he has none of the splits that point to the explanation for Duda. His splits by leverage, times facing pitcher, starter vs. reliever, and finesse versus power pitchers are all unremarkable. But the one thing we know about Moreland is that he's been awful his whole career in base-out situations where pitchers are willing to walk him, i.e., RISP and first base empty. And when you look deeper at the 340 PA in the sample, it seems very clear that he's suffered because he's been pitched around. Yeah, your first response is, really? They're pitching around Mitch Moreland? But where he's hit all his life (5th, 6th, and 7th, 65% of the time), I'm pretty sure there has usually been a relatively weak RHB up next. (I could actually get the names and games started of the hitters who have hit behind him.) Moreland, for all his so-so overall results, is still viewed as a dangerous, streaky hitter. IOW, I think he's usually been a tougher out for a RHR than the next guy up. And unlike SP, the guys he's facing are simply trying to get through one inning without giving up a run. The numbers back this up. You're more likely to pitch around him the more outs you have, and his splits by number of outs are 93, 80, and 32. He's 83 with the bases empty and 63 with runners on. You'd most pitch around him with 2 outs and RISP and the bases not full, and he's 4/30 with a 2B and 1 UBB in those PA. With the bases full, he's 3/8, 2B. That's why I want to re-sign Moreland * and start him out hitting 2nd in front of Martinez: Betts or Bogaerts Moreland Martinez Devers Bogaerts or Betts Benintendi Vazquez Hernandez Bradley Batting Moreland 2 and Benny 6 instead of vice versa seems completely backwards, but Moreland protected by Martinez will be noticeably better (maybe dramatically), while that protection might actually hurt Benintendi. * Assuming that they can't trade for Bour. I'd do Chavis and other prospects for Bour, Tazawa, and $1-$2M towards his salary if the other prospects were right -- no one else from the top 10. I don't see that as likely unless they can't trade Stanton, and maybe not even then.
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Post by soxjim on Nov 19, 2017 1:25:04 GMT -5
Should the Duda late inning woes be attributed to the fact he's facing a bunch of Loogys? I'm guessing you didn't see the last post on your phone ... he has a career 73 wRC+, including a .295 SA, in 286 career PAs versus righties, 7th inning and on, low leverage excluded. He can't hit good pitchers at all the first time he sees them, and he especially doesn't hit them well when they challenge him in the strike zone. He succeeds by hitting poor pitchers well, and (it seems) by figuring out how they're pitching him over the course of a game. Now, Mitch Moreland in the same split hasn't been any better, 75 wRC+. But at first this is extremely puzzling, because he has none of the splits that point to the explanation for Duda. His splits by leverage, times facing pitcher, starter vs. reliever, and finesse versus power pitchers are all unremarkable. But the one thing we know about Moreland is that he's been awful his whole career in base-out situations where pitchers are willing to walk him, i.e., RISP and first base empty. And when you look deeper at the 340 PA in the sample, it seems very clear that he's suffered because he's been pitched around. Yeah, your first response is, really? They're pitching around Mitch Moreland? But where he's hit all his life (5th, 6th, and 7th, 65% of the time), I'm pretty sure there has usually been a relatively weak RHB up next. (I could actually get the names and games started of the hitters who have hit behind him.) Moreland, for all his so-so overall results, is still viewed as a dangerous, streaky hitter. IOW, I think he's usually been a tougher out for a RHR than the next guy up. And unlike SP, the guys he's facing are simply trying to get through one inning without giving up a run. The numbers back this up. You're more likely to pitch around him the more outs you have, and his splits by number of outs are 93, 80, and 32. He's 83 with the bases empty and 63 with runners on. You'd most pitch around him with 2 outs and RISP and the bases not full, and he's 4/30 with a 2B and 1 UBB in those PA. With the bases full, he's 3/8, 2B. That's why I want to re-sign Moreland * and start him out hitting 2nd in front of Martinez: Betts or Bogaerts Moreland Martinez Devers Bogaerts or Betts Benintendi Vazquez Hernandez BradleyBatting Moreland 2 and Benny 6 instead of vice versa seems completely backwards, but Moreland protected by Martinez will be noticeably better (maybe dramatically), while that protection might actually hurt Benintendi. * Assuming that they can't trade for Bour. I'd do Chavis and other prospects for Bour, Tazawa, and $1-$2M towards his salary if the other prospects were right -- no one else from the top 10. I don't see that as likely unless they can't trade Stanton, and maybe not even then. No way you put Moreland at 2nd. And no way Betts should ever hit as low as 5th. First off Beni in just his 2nd year already had a higher OPS than Moreland. Expect Beni to do much better with a year more experience not to mention more speed - thus with a better manager that actually values not giving up base runners Beni will be much more effective this year than last. Beni hit a measly .711 OPS in Fenway. Expect that to jump as well as his overall hitting. As far as Betts - he creates way too much on the basepaths and hits with way too much power to not have him 1-4. Even in his down year he still hit for more power than Moreland. Getting Moreland is a mistake. His WRC+ is 98. It's 98 in a friendly hitting park and he adds nothing as a baseruunner. If you are investing near $237m you have to find a better player than Mitch rather than just accept mediocrity. If you don't want to go $237m then okay bring back Mitch and see what the pitching can do and look at maybe mid-season to make some moves. I'm sorry but I don't believe Mitch is being "pitched around." They probably feel he'll chase. His OBP over the past 7 years has not gone over .330. I don't agree he is being ptiched around. You once made a great observation when you stated-- " This is the Statistically Correct fallacy that might be called You Must Use All the Data or Players Never Change."I believe you are doing it in this case with Beni vs Moreland. Beni will probably improve. Moreland's OBP is what it is. IMO there is nothing "behind the scenes." There is a reason why he won't get big offers. *1-- Betts (or Beni) **2-- Beni (or Betts) ***3-- Martinez 4-- Devers 5-- Xander 6-- Moreland 7-- Vaz 8-- Holt/Hernandez 9-- JBJ *(**) (***)Or have Beni hit 3rd and move up Xander to 2nd or leadoff (vs lefties-- maybe. Though initial galnce I tend to want him at 5)) while Betts takes the other spot. And as far as 1b. I'm with you -- you got me a while back to change my mind on Bour. Hit him 3rd. Great idea. The difference between Bour and Moreland is not only is Bour a better hitter but he seems to get on base at a much better clip. If you are 1-3, you had better get on base and/or have some speed that can impact. But no way would I give up Chavis. That's in part because I don't know if Bour is a lockdown player. Even though I am arguing with umassgrad a lot on other threads with me being a pro-Bour poster- I'm not entirely sure Bour can produce. I think he can but don't think giving up as much as you suggest is worth the risk. I suppose if you are confident what he is -- you'll give up what you say. Because I'm not so sure- I'd walk away vs what you are offering. I think the Red sox are making a big mistake by not working Chavis in left field. As for Bour, I can't imagine that he is in Miami's long term plans along with maybe he is injury prone. If you take him and another expensive player off their list and send them Travis - I think that would be a pretty good deal. Maybe a 2nd tier prospect player- but-- not Chavis.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 19, 2017 2:13:54 GMT -5
Duda hits 141 wRC+ low leverage, 99 medium and 109 high leverage. Versus RHP only it's 155, 111, and 108. The 111 wRC+ in medium and high leverage situations doesn't back up what you claimed, so lets only look at 1/3 of the innings. Ok I got you now. Lets only look at 286 PA which is less than 10% of his career total of 3,095. That doesn't make much sense, but OK. The 73 wRC+ looks bad and seems to make Eric's point. Thing is it breaks down to a 41 wRC+ for medium leverage in 167 PA and 130 wRC+ for high leverage in 119 PA. He is also at 163 wRC+ in those 3 innings in low leverage against RHP. Well now I'm confused because that makes no sense. Duda does very well in the 7, 8 and 9 inning in high leverage situations and for some reason sucks in medium leverage situations. It's just not enough data and proves nothing. To think all those 7-9 inning PA mean less than 167 medium leverage ones is cherry picking data my friend. You start basing things off 160 PA you can get some crazy results with any player. The idea he can't do well against good relievers with the game on the line makes no sense with a 130 wRC+ in the last 3 innings in high leverage situations.
We are talking about a platoon bench player that like you said most likely gets a 1 year prove it deal for fairly low money. He kills RHP and sucks against LHP. Against RHP he has a 125 wRC+ with bases empty, 116 wRC+ with men on base, and 121 wRC+ with men in scoring position. So again it looks like you added in LHP to make it seem like he can't hit power pitching. You won't hear me disagree that he sucks against LHP, he does 100%. He is a very good hitter against RHP though. With Cora he could be a big weapon. If it's Moreland or Duda give me Duda all day long! We need the bat over better D and should have good lefty hitters in Ramirez and Brentz for Cora to use.
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1B in 2018
Nov 19, 2017 10:31:44 GMT -5
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 19, 2017 10:31:44 GMT -5
I would not want to see Moreland in the 2 hole at all and I agree, at least against righties, Benny should be two.
VS lefties, I would go Betts, Bogaerts, Martinez, Devers, Ramirez, Benny, Vazquez, Marrero, Bradley
VS righties: Betts, Benny, Martinez, Devers, Duda/Moreland/Ramirez, Bogaerts, Vazquez, Hernandez and Bradley.
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Post by jmei on Nov 19, 2017 13:36:20 GMT -5
The sample sizes for leverage-based splits are so small and I'm skeptical that they're predictive (I imagine the year-to-year correlations are weak, and I've never seen anyone other than Eric cite them in any meaningful way). When there are no many other ways to analyze players these days that have demonstrated predictive utility, I just don't see the point of digging into that stuff.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 19, 2017 20:16:07 GMT -5
The sample sizes for leverage-based splits are so small and I'm skeptical that they're predictive (I imagine the year-to-year correlations are weak, and I've never seen anyone other than Eric cite them in any meaningful way). When there are no many other ways to analyze players these days that have demonstrated predictive utility, I just don't see the point of digging into that stuff. Thank you.
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1B in 2018
Nov 19, 2017 21:58:10 GMT -5
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Post by m1keyboots on Nov 19, 2017 21:58:10 GMT -5
Justin was a pretty exciting player to watch when we were in school.
10 years ago I would have never guessed he'd be playing anything other than adult leagues with the rest of us- rather than be talked about manning the bag in Fenway (I bet he wouldn't have guessed either)
It'd be pretty freakin cool to have a classmate on the big league squad.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 21, 2017 14:32:25 GMT -5
But the one thing we know about Moreland is that he's been awful his whole career in base-out situations where pitchers are willing to walk him, i.e., RISP and first base empty. And when you look deeper at the 340 PA in the sample, it seems very clear that he's suffered because he's been pitched around. Yeah, your first response is, really? They're pitching around Mitch Moreland? But where he's hit all his life (5th, 6th, and 7th, 65% of the time), I'm pretty sure there has usually been a relatively weak RHB up next. (I could actually get the names and games started of the hitters who have hit behind him.) Moreland, for all his so-so overall results, is still viewed as a dangerous, streaky hitter. IOW, I think he's usually been a tougher out for a RHR than the next guy up. And unlike SP, the guys he's facing are simply trying to get through one inning without giving up a run. The numbers back this up. You're more likely to pitch around him the more outs you have, and his splits by number of outs are 93, 80, and 32. He's 83 with the bases empty and 63 with runners on. You'd most pitch around him with 2 outs and RISP and the bases not full, and he's 4/30 with a 2B and 1 UBB in those PA. With the bases full, he's 3/8, 2B. That's why I want to re-sign Moreland * and start him out hitting 2nd in front of Martinez: Betts or Bogaerts Moreland Martinez Devers Bogaerts or Betts Benintendi Vazquez Hernandez BradleyBatting Moreland 2 and Benny 6 instead of vice versa seems completely backwards, but Moreland protected by Martinez will be noticeably better (maybe dramatically), while that protection might actually hurt Benintendi. No way you put Moreland at 2nd. And no way Betts should ever hit as low as 5th. First off Beni in just his 2nd year already had a higher OPS than Moreland. Expect Beni to do much better with a year more experience not to mention more speed - thus with a better manager that actually values not giving up base runners Beni will be much more effective this year than last. Beni hit a measly .711 OPS in Fenway. Expect that to jump as well as his overall hitting. As far as Betts - he creates way too much on the basepaths and hits with way too much power to not have him 1-4. Even in his down year he still hit for more power than Moreland. Getting Moreland is a mistake. His WRC+ is 98. It's 98 in a friendly hitting park and he adds nothing as a baseruunner. If you are investing near $237m you have to find a better player than Mitch rather than just accept mediocrity. If you don't want to go $237m then okay bring back Mitch and see what the pitching can do and look at maybe mid-season to make some moves. I'm sorry but I don't believe Mitch is being "pitched around." They probably feel he'll chase. His OBP over the past 7 years has not gone over .330. I don't agree he is being ptiched around. You once made a great observation when you stated-- " This is the Statistically Correct fallacy that might be called You Must Use All the Data or Players Never Change."I believe you are doing it in this case with Beni vs Moreland. Beni will probably improve. Moreland's OBP is what it is. IMO there is nothing "behind the scenes." There is a reason why he won't get big offers. *1-- Betts (or Beni) **2-- Beni (or Betts) ***3-- Martinez 4-- Devers 5-- Xander 6-- Moreland 7-- Vaz 8-- Holt/Hernandez 9-- JBJ *(**) (***)Or have Beni hit 3rd and move up Xander to 2nd or leadoff (vs lefties-- maybe. Though initial galnce I tend to want him at 5)) while Betts takes the other spot. And as far as 1b. I'm with you -- you got me a while back to change my mind on Bour. Hit him 3rd. Great idea. The difference between Bour and Moreland is not only is Bour a better hitter but he seems to get on base at a much better clip. If you are 1-3, you had better get on base and/or have some speed that can impact. But no way would I give up Chavis. That's in part because I don't know if Bour is a lockdown player. Even though I am arguing with umassgrad a lot on other threads with me being a pro-Bour poster- I'm not entirely sure Bour can produce. I think he can but don't think giving up as much as you suggest is worth the risk. I suppose if you are confident what he is -- you'll give up what you say. Because I'm not so sure- I'd walk away vs what you are offering. I think the Red sox are making a big mistake by not working Chavis in left field. As for Bour, I can't imagine that he is in Miami's long term plans along with maybe he is injury prone. If you take him and another expensive player off their list and send them Travis - I think that would be a pretty good deal. Maybe a 2nd tier prospect player- but-- not Chavis. You're 100% correct that they are trying to get Moreland to chase in these situations. And they are succeeding. That's what "pitching around a guy" means the way I use it. You are nibbling at the corners, not throwing anything hittable, and you are willing to walk the guy if he's patient, but your hope is that he takes the bait and chases and gets himself out. If the guy has a track record of doing so, if that's what the book on him says, it's your plan. Pedro Martinez used to absolutely dominate Alfonso Soriano because he knew he could get him to chase in any RISP situation, even with 1B occupied (and in fact the only reason he got out of the 7th inning unscathed in 2003 ALCS Game 7, when he was already gassed, is that he had Soriano up with 2 outs and men on 1st and 2nd). The reason I think it's fair to call this "pitching around" the hitter is that they are good hitters who don't ordinarily swing at those pitches. These are guys who really want to get the RISP home, are aware that the guy up next is not as good as themselves, and just try to do too much and swing at pitches they would take without hesitation if they were, say, leading off. The guy on the Sox who has done this his whole career is Pedroia. I ran his numbers after 2015. Here were his career totals hitting in front of Papi versus everyone else: Hitter PA BA OBP SA RE6K WP6K Ortiz 2355 .305 .366 .440 15.55 1.625 Others 3119 .297 .367 .451 11.62 0.530 You can see that he actually hit better overall without Papi protecting him; the difference probably isn't significant. The next column is the change in Run Expectancy per 600 PA, which is to say, we now have included base/out situation clutch hitting. He's 4 runs or 0.4 wins better with Papi behind him, despite the lower SA. The last column is Win Probability Added per 600 PA, which is to say we're including inning / score situation clutch hitting as well, and now the protection is worth 1.1 wins. These are in huge sample sizes. So Pedey had been a dramatically better clutch hitter when he had Papi up next. He didn't try to win the game himself, because he expected Papi to do that. He stayed within himself and didn't chase. In fact, as a general idea, pitching around is not effective. From 2014 to 2017 there was no essentially no change in BA and SA in pitch-around situations versus neutral ones (.248, .402 neutral, .253, .401 pitch-around), but OBP excluding IBB went up from .310 to .333. That's because for every guy who will chase and hit worse when you nibble, there are two that won't chase and will just draw the walk if you persist in nibbling, and a subset of those guys actually hit better in these situations their whole career, because, I think, they are adept at figuring out when the pitcher will try one last pitch in the zone to get back even in the count. J.D. Drew was like that. JBJ may be another. Re the batting order, I agree that Betts hitting as low as 5th is insane. I put it in as an option because I could imagine a world where Xander hitting 5th is just as insane, and if that's the case, you might well swap them. I had Moreland hitting 2 as the best solution I could find to a really difficult lineup challenge when you have 5 LHB until Pedey comes back. But your distaste made me rethink it and come up with something I like much better. Betts Benintendi Martinez Devers Bogaerts Bradley Vazquez Hernandez Moreland Betts hitting after Moreland will provide 80% or 90% of the protection that Martinez would. It's important to realize that this "protection" is as much or more about Mitch Moreland feeling it's OK to just take the walk in that situation, because he has the beasts of the lineup after him instead of the dregs, as it is about the pitchers feeling way less comfortable trying to get him to chase, for the same reason. As far as having Moreland on the team, the Sox should be able to stay under $237 with him if they sign JDM as we hope (expect?). He gives you a superior option at 1B to Hanley against many or most RHP on the road and against nearly all of them at home. And that prevents Hanley's option from vesting, and significantly increases the odds of him staying healthy. He replaces Marrero or Swihart on the 25-man, and that's obviously an upgrade. You have Hanley instead of Brentz to pinch-hit for Hernandez on days Moreland starts at 1B, and you still have Brentz to hit for Benintendi (if he continues to have big platoon splits) or for Moreland (if they've brought in a LHR for Hernandez and don't have a RHP warmed up). Now, whether they should go over $237M to sign Logan Morrison or Eric Hosmer is another question, and a very good one. But if they want to stay under, I don't see the argument against signing Morelad. That's he 's nothing special is not a good reason. You'll be paying for about one win and he'll be worth more than that. Keeping Hanley healthy and limiting him to 400 or 450 PA is key.
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1B in 2018
Nov 21, 2017 15:21:09 GMT -5
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 21, 2017 15:21:09 GMT -5
Eric, I like your 2nd proposed line-up way better than Moreland at #2. With that said most all of what you said below is true for Duda as well. If they come with a similar price tag, give me the better power hitter.
"As far as having Moreland on the team, the Sox should be able to stay under $237 with him if they sign JDM as we hope (expect?). He gives you a superior option at 1B to Hanley against many or most RHP on the road and against nearly all of them at home. And that prevents Hanley's option from vesting, and significantly increases the odds of him staying healthy. He replaces Marrero or Swihart on the 25-man, and that's obviously an upgrade. You have Hanley instead of Brentz to pinch-hit for Hernandez on days Moreland starts at 1B, and you still have Brentz to hit for Benintendi (if he continues to have big platoon splits) or for Moreland (if they've brought in a LHR for Hernandez and don't have a RHP warmed up".
Lastly, I actually like Hosmer, and would think he could hit 50 doubles a year in Fenway, just not at the numbers I keep hearing... I feel like $120 million player should be more consistent and not need to sit vs some lefties... as for Morrison, I think if he gets 12-15 mil per, I'll take Duda at 5-6 mil and get a reliever to help the BP.
Thank you.
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Post by soxjim on Nov 21, 2017 22:17:49 GMT -5
eric - I agree with many of your points but on here - sorry going to have to agree to disagree with Mitch at 2nd. Putting Moreland at the 2hole while you have other fine hitters including Betts hitting behind Moreland imo is not good. IMO OBP tells us what Mitch is. What you call "being pitched around" I call it that Moreland has a sub-par eye of the strike zone or too impatient. He has shown us his entire career that he is decent to a subpar hiiter when he plays a full season. In addition, his full-season career best .330 OBP is bad for a top-of-the-order hitter in which his team has title aspirations. In other words, there are much better ways to go.
And when you say as a pitcher "you hope he takes the bait." I take a different view. The pitcher is fairly confident he'll get Mitch out because he's fairly confident he'll get Moreland to chase. IMO that's not "pitching around." It's pitching to one of Moreland's weaknesses.
As as jiant2520 replied to you I like that 2nd batting order you had mentioned. I really don't know where to put JBJ. I mentioned a similar lineup only i had Moreland 6th and JBJ 9. But I can go the other way. But this leads to my point why I don't want Moreland if the Sox sign JDM.
Moreland is an aging mediocre player at best. The bottom 4 of the order if you also have Moreland is highly questionable in terms of hitting. In 2013 Moreland didn't hit well. He was subpar. In 2014 he was terrible though his season was cut short. In 2015 he had his best full season. In 2016 he was bad. Then he was decent in 2017. This past September he hit 32 years of age. Why should the Red Sox settle for his "at-best" mediocrity when they might also have three other hitters who might also be sub-par at the bottom of the order? Especially if the Sox can actually get a better ball player such as Bour? Why avoid getting the better ball player? Moreland is questionable in terms of hitting. With age factored in and 3 of his last 5 years his OPS was .736 and lower, why settle for this if you are going to spend near $237m? For $237m, shouldn't you try to do better than an "at- best" mediocre 1b if you can?
**One other point-- having Betts ahead of Moreland allows the Red Sox to score more runs. Even Betts getting on 1b - he becomes a weapon. More at bats for Betts is far superior imo than the protection for JDM. Devers and Xander are "protection enough." Now you've also given Betts some "protection" too.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 22, 2017 1:02:56 GMT -5
Eric, I like your 2nd proposed line-up way better than Moreland at #2. With that said most all of what you said below is true for Duda as well. If they come with a similar price tag, give me the better power hitter. "As far as having Moreland on the team, the Sox should be able to stay under $237 with him if they sign JDM as we hope (expect?). He gives you a superior option at 1B to Hanley against many or most RHP on the road and against nearly all of them at home. And that prevents Hanley's option from vesting, and significantly increases the odds of him staying healthy. He replaces Marrero or Swihart on the 25-man, and that's obviously an upgrade. You have Hanley instead of Brentz to pinch-hit for Hernandez on days Moreland starts at 1B, and you still have Brentz to hit for Benintendi (if he continues to have big platoon splits) or for Moreland (if they've brought in a LHR for Hernandez and don't have a RHP warmed up". Lastly, I actually like Hosmer, and would think he could hit 50 doubles a year in Fenway, just not at the numbers I keep hearing... I feel like $120 million player should be more consistent and not need to sit vs some lefties... as for Morrison, I think if he gets 12-15 mil per, I'll take Duda at 5-6 mil and get a reliever to help the BP. Thank you. Well, actually, I think you'd agree that you'd ask for the better player. I think what you mean is that if they're equally good players, you want the power hitter. In fact, the best answer to that is that you want the better fielder, because hitting gets dinged by the elite pitching in the post-season, but fielding doesn't. That's the reason why the vast majority of World Series upsets have been by teams with superior pitching and defense beating overall better teams. But let's run some numbers that will show that, if he's playing half his games in Fenway Park, Mitch Moreland is as good or better than Duda, and that's without introducing the negative extra factors that I think argue strongly against Duda (and which I'll go over in the next post, a reply to jmei). All of these numbers are for playing 2/3 of a season i.e., platooning. There are current projections online for Steamer and at B-Ref (I should order the Bill James Handbook for 2018 soon, since that's the third set that's out there). Average them, and they have Duda as 13 runs better at the plate. Moreland projects to be 5.5 runs better on defense (regressed). Moreland's a bad baserunner and Duda seems to be a tad worse, but the difference doesn't amount to a run. Last year, Moreland gained 10 runs of value from playing half his games in Fenway, based on how much bigger his home/road split was compared to his career numbers. The strength of schedule difference between the two over the last 3 years is 2 runs (1.7, to be exact). That gets you Moreland as 10 + 5.5 + 1.7 - 13 = 4 runs better. There was a strong advance expectation that Moreland would thrive in Fenway, so I'm not sure that you have to regress the 10 runs much if at all. You might need to reduce it as much as 3 runs if it it has already been included in the projections (i.e., they may not have factored it out in re-projecting him to a neutral park). But the previous home/road split was in an even better overall hitter's park than Fenway. It's hard to argue that the 10 run Fenway vs Texas edge is really 6 vs. the neutral park projection, so that means that the overall edge goes to Moreland, I think by 2 runs, give or take 1. And keep in mind that the tiebreaker goes to the better fielder, and the other tiebreaker goes to the guy with the smaller platoon split, which gives you more strategic and lineup flexibility. Now, Moreland's been here and is reportedly a great clubhouse guy. Every top 50 free agent rundown I've seen lists Duda but not Moreland (as they should, in terms of value to the average team), so he'll be cheaper, too. It's already a real strong argument before you add: 1) Duda loses value moving to a strong lineup 2) Moreland can gain significant value by hitting 9th (or 2nd or 3rd in Fenway when he's hot) 3) Duda loses more value when it really counts, against elite pitching such as closers and playoff aces
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 22, 2017 7:51:16 GMT -5
Out of the last 4 years for both Moreland and Duda, let's take out Moreland's shortened 2014 season and Duda's shortened 2016 season (I'm assuming they missed most of their time with injuries)-
Duda had OPS totals that followed as such- 2014- .830 2015- .838 2017- .818
Now Moreland's OPS totals- 2015- .812 2016- .720 2017- .769
Now let's get into defense.
Duda's DRS 2014 5 2015 4 2017 -1
Moreland's DRS- 2015 2 2016 7 2017 10
Recently, Moreland has been far superior with the glove as has been shown with the advanced metrics. However, if you take out 2017, it's pretty close to a wash defensively. I'll give the edge to Moreland. He definitely has the better arm out of the 2 players without question.
However, if you add in offense, it's not even close to who is the superior player. It's Duda. Moreland's best year with the bat the last 3 healthy years isn't even as good as Duda's worst year with the bat (during his 3 healthy years in this time). Duda is a guy that regularly gets way above a .800 OPS when helthy, while Moreland has been around like a mid .700's OPS the past years 4 years on average.
Eric, I want to agree with you, but the raw numbers just say otherwise. Moreland just doesn't have Duda's bat, whether it's against good or bad pitching. Either will be cheap options, I'd go with the guy with a higher OPS myself. If you could bank on Moreland getting a OPS over .800 over a season, I'd probably side with Moreland. Moreland has only done it, what? Once in his career? Yeah, give me Duda all day.
Edit- I'll just add while Moreland's great DRS really pops out at you last year, Moreland's defense didn't really stand out to me last year. I didn't think his stretch and reach off the first base bag to handle throws is all that great. I don't think he's good at picking balls out of the dirt at all. Moreland was good, but to me it wasn't like watching Adrian Gonzalez in 2011 or 2012 or watching Mark Texeira in his prime. Those guys were magicians around the bag, Moreland isn't like that. Solid, but unspectacular.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 22, 2017 15:42:26 GMT -5
Eric you are not looking at Moreland vs Duda objectively, not even close. The raw numbers and projections clearly show Duda is the better player. That's the reason everyone has Duda on top 50 lists and Moreland isn't. It's the reason why Keith Law says Duda could be one of the best Bargins in free agency. You don't like the raw numbers so you start adjusting Moreland till he looks better than Duda. Does Fenway make Moreland better? I bet it does, it makes most hitters better. It's one of the best hitting parks in the majors year after year. Duda is going to be better also playing at Fenway and all the other hitter friendly parks in the AL East. The Parks in the AL East are why you build your team around hitting over D if that is the two choices at 1B. You can't just increase Moreland for park effect and not Duda. By all accounts going for Citi field to Fenway is going to help a hitter and have a negative effect on a pitcher.
Please explain how Duda can't hit good power pitching with the game on the line??? He has a 130 wRC+ in the 7th, 8th, and 9th inning in high leverage situations against RHP. We would be getting him to platoon, so those bad LHP numbers won't matter and those are what make it seem like he can't hit good pitching. He can't hit good LH power pitching, big difference.
The whole idea about a platoon is to take a guy like Duda with huge LHP vs RHP splits and get the most out of him. You can increase his value by only playing him against RHP and not LHP that kills his numbers and drags down his value. Using Duda like this will increase his value. A guy like Moreland without those big splits will not see the same benefit playing in a platoon.
Your idea that Moreland would benefit more from protection in our lineup is again flawed and frankly downright wrong. Duda against RHP 125 wRC+ with bases empty, 116 wRC+ with men on and 121 wRC+ with men in scoring position. Moreland against RHP 110 wRC+ with bases empty, 96 wRC+ with men on base and 85 wRC+ with men in scoring position. When a pitcher needs to really reach down and get an out Moreland turns into a pumkin and Duda is going to drive in some runs. The idea that Moreland would get more walks with Betts behind him is just wrong. No one has been pitching around Moreland in his career. He won't see extra fastballs down the middle of the plate. Duda will and it will help him. Nevermind if you bat Duda 9th, which I don't see happening, but if you did and put Vazquez in front of him, it would really help Vazquez. Pitchers will be scared of Duda a lot more than Moreland and Vazquez would see more pitches. Teams will be looking at the numbers and Duda kills RHP, Moreland doesn't scare anyone. That's what you get when Duda is a 120 OPS+ career hitter and Moreland is a 100 OPS+ career hitter.
When it comes down to Moreland and Duda it's very simple. Duda is the better hitter and overall better player. He will likely cost more than Moreland. You don't sign Moreland because you think he's better. You sign him if you want more D and someone that is cheaper. After last year we need the bat and power more than the slight difference in D. Our pitching staff is built around power pitching, not 5 guys like Porcello. So give me the impact bat all day long. It's not like Duda is awful at 1B either. It's rather simple if you want a platoon bat for RHP at 1B, Duda is the way to go compared to Moreland unless you can't afford Duda. That better not be the case!
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 22, 2017 17:07:30 GMT -5
A lot of discussion between two players who are projected by Steamer to be within 0.4 WAR of each other. I'd stick with Moreland, who is what we know. Duda was terrible in Tampa after he was traded. Duda doesn't seem to be one who would benefit from the Monster like Moreland does based on spray charts.
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Post by larrycook on Nov 22, 2017 17:13:09 GMT -5
Haven’t the Red Sox contacted every available free agent first baseman except Moreland?
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 23, 2017 0:49:38 GMT -5
Eric, I like your 2nd proposed line-up way better than Moreland at #2. With that said most all of what you said below is true for Duda as well. If they come with a similar price tag, give me the better power hitter. "As far as having Moreland on the team, the Sox should be able to stay under $237 with him if they sign JDM as we hope (expect?). He gives you a superior option at 1B to Hanley against many or most RHP on the road and against nearly all of them at home. And that prevents Hanley's option from vesting, and significantly increases the odds of him staying healthy. He replaces Marrero or Swihart on the 25-man, and that's obviously an upgrade. You have Hanley instead of Brentz to pinch-hit for Hernandez on days Moreland starts at 1B, and you still have Brentz to hit for Benintendi (if he continues to have big platoon splits) or for Moreland (if they've brought in a LHR for Hernandez and don't have a RHP warmed up". Lastly, I actually like Hosmer, and would think he could hit 50 doubles a year in Fenway, just not at the numbers I keep hearing... I feel like $120 million player should be more consistent and not need to sit vs some lefties... as for Morrison, I think if he gets 12-15 mil per, I'll take Duda at 5-6 mil and get a reliever to help the BP. Thank you. Well, actually, I think you'd agree that you'd ask for the better player. I think what you mean is that if they're equally good players, you want the power hitter. In fact, the best answer to that is that you want the better fielder, because hitting gets dinged by the elite pitching in the post-season, but fielding doesn't. That's the reason why the vast majority of World Series upsets have been by teams with superior pitching and defense beating overall better teams. But let's run some numbers that will show that, if he's playing half his games in Fenway Park, Mitch Moreland is as good or better than Duda, and that's without introducing the negative extra factors that I think argue strongly against Duda (and which I'll go over in the next post, a reply to jmei). All of these numbers are for playing 2/3 of a season i.e., platooning. There are current projections online for Steamer and at B-Ref (I should order the Bill James Handbook for 2018 soon, since that's the third set that's out there). Average them, and they have Duda as 13 runs better at the plate. Moreland projects to be 5.5 runs better on defense (regressed). Moreland's a bad baserunner and Duda seems to be a tad worse, but the difference doesn't amount to a run. Last year, Moreland gained 10 runs of value from playing half his games in Fenway, based on how much bigger his home/road split was compared to his career numbers. The strength of schedule difference between the two over the last 3 years is 2 runs (1.7, to be exact). That gets you Moreland as 10 + 5.5 + 1.7 - 13 = 4 runs better. There was a strong advance expectation that Moreland would thrive in Fenway, so I'm not sure that you have to regress the 10 runs much if at all. You might need to reduce it as much as 3 runs if it it has already been included in the projections (i.e., they may not have factored it out in re-projecting him to a neutral park). But the previous home/road split was in an even better overall hitter's park than Fenway. It's hard to argue that the 10 run Fenway vs Texas edge is really 6 vs. the neutral park projection, so that means that the overall edge goes to Moreland, I think by 2 runs, give or take 1. And keep in mind that the tiebreaker goes to the better fielder, and the other tiebreaker goes to the guy with the smaller platoon split, which gives you more strategic and lineup flexibility. Now, Moreland's been here and is reportedly a great clubhouse guy. Every top 50 free agent rundown I've seen lists Duda but not Moreland (as they should, in terms of value to the average team), so he'll be cheaper, too. It's already a real strong argument before you add: 1) Duda loses value moving to a strong lineup 2) Moreland can gain significant value by hitting 9th (or 2nd or 3rd in Fenway when he's hot) 3) Duda loses more value when it really counts, against elite pitching such as closers and playoff aces I think they are pretty equally good players. Duda has more pop, as I mentioned, which is why I prefer him. If Duda will cost double Moreland than that is different, but if their price tag is close, I prefer the better power hitter, which is Duda. Thank you
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