1B in 2018

Everyone has a price. Abreu's mentoring of Moncada won't prevent a trade. Besides, Yoan is a big boy now.

Chavis and Ockimey are not ready for the majors yet. Chavis, especially, cannot play first yet. Ockimey’s game isn’t consistent enough yet to play against big league pitching. I’d be shocked to see Ockimey in boston in 2018. Chavis may get there late next year bubecause I wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t.

As for Travis, I like his game but we don’t need another guy that’s gonna get on base and hit for no power. That’s part of what killed us this year. I think he’s still a legit prospect, but that lack of power for 1B is concerning.

Travis looked promising, wouldn't rule him out. I'd deal Ockimey, Chavis has a similar average with much higher power. I also think it is a really bad idea to deal JBJ, he isn't amazing at offense, but he has saved so many runs on defense.

Schwarber wouldn't be cheap, and I'm a little tired of playing the "pay full price for a guy and just assume he can switch positions" game. It's one thing if you can get a guy whose stock is down and move him - it's another to trade for Kyle Schwarber's bat and then praying he can be a reasonable first baseman.

You're probably right, but Schwarber should be cheap. The Cubs have nowhere to play him realistically and as such they don't really have a lot of leverage. I doubt he would cost more than Justin Bour or Jose Abreu for instance. He could also DH if DDo doesn't feel like signing JD Martinez.

He fell back to earth in the second half, even after a trade to far more hitter-friendly Seattle. He was a .750 OPS guy from June 22 onward, and the trend started before the trade, so I don't think you can assign any causality there.

If you're signing him as a .750 OPS guy, then maybe. If you're paying for the 1.000 OPS guy he was in the first half, no thanks.

Bour would be a fine fit for the ballpark; he's neither an extreme pull hitter nor a guy like Hosmer who specializes in going the other way. He'll lose just 1 or 2 HR to RF because when he hits the ball hard that way, he tends to crush it. But it looks like he'll turn 3 or 4 outs to LF into wall balls, even without looking for pitches to hit that way, which he seems perfectly capable of doing.

He has tremendous numbers in his career with RISP (996 vs. 760 empty and 800 man on 1B), bad in Late and Close (640 in 193 PA), with the net result being a mild positive Clutch differential and nice splits in low, medium, and high leverage (771, 879, 881). The bad numbers Late and Close are almost certainly dragged down by facing LOOGYs. We can minimize that by putting him behind a RHB who hits lefties hard. A LOOGY brought in to face him, in my roster plan, gets Hanley as a PH.

He has an unusual set of splits by base/out situation: .282 (weighted) EqA in Neutral, .297 in Challenge, .308 in Pitch-Around. That explains or is consistent with the RISP numbers, because RISP with 1B open is a pitch-around situation, while challenge situations are mostly 0 and 1 outs and 1B occupied. It seems as if he might be a smart hitter, guessing better when the base/out situation gives him a clue as to how they might pitch him. There's no evidence that he needs (or is hurt by) protection, so he can hit anywhere in the lineup.

Now, if we go after him, obviously Sam Travis is going to Miami. We should also be looking to deal Brian Johnson and acqite a LHR who can pitch in the 7th. Do they have anyone who fits that description?

No. But they do have Wei-Yin Chen, due $52M over three years (but with $48M against the tax limit). They are desperate to move him.

So, what if the Sox got Chen and used him in relief? Does he have splits that suggest he'd be good in that role?

Yup. Almost every single one, in fact.

All of these slash lines are compared to an overall career .262 / .306 / .439.

First batter of the game? .206 / .243 / .319.

RISP? .216 / .263 / .349.

First inning of work? .250 / .292 / .407.

And of course he provides the same SP depth that keeping Johnson would. Or you could deal him to a club that wants him as a starter and get your reliever elsewhere.

Of course, you might not take of all of his salary. Chen plus Bour, for three years, at their combined expected salary, has some excess value. It's going to be roughly in the ballpark for the 6-year projected excess value for Travis and Johnson. Perhaps they need to pay some of the salary just to make the straight swap work. And depending on what other salary the Marlins can move, they might prefer to eat a solid chunk of Chen's salary and get more back in the way of prospects. We also have Heath Hembree as excess.

The point is, there's a potential deal here where we can add a lot of talent at very little talent cost, by taking on a portion of Chen's contract.

OTOH, long range, it might be better just to get Bour with Travis, Johnson, Hembree, and whatever else it takes, and sign a FA reliever.

If Sox get Bour  that is $3.5m. 
If Sox get JD    that is  $25m 
Current payroll 2018 is $208m minus Travis, Hembree, Johnson and whatever to get Bour.
How much do we deduct $2.3m?  

Sox then would be at $234m. No way Sox can get Chen unless they trade/ don't sign guys such as Kelly, Thornburg, and Holt. Their combined is $7.7m while Chen is $10m. You'd have to gut all 3 of these players  wouldn't you? 
And if Chen goes into the $20m range in the future, is he worth it? A 32 yo pitcher? I don't think he's worth it. 

Bour hitting 3rd and Martinez 4th would change this lineup dramatically.

I love Mitch Moreland, but he's not a #3 hitter on a championship club. You would rather not entrust that to Devers or Benintendi next year, either. And once they've both established themselves completely, you'd bat Moreland 7th, and that's a problem, because he's been terrible his whole career in pitch-around situations -- a .222 EqA versus .276 Challenge and .273 Neutral. If Sandy Leon's on deck when he's up, he becomes just as easy an out. He has to bat in the middle of the lineup.

It's worth noting that Benintendi, in his brief MLB time, is the opposite: .281 Challenge, .277 Neutral, .320 Pitch-Around. Which is to say he's done a disproportionate amount of his damage when they weren't afraid to walk him. J.D. Drew had those splits his whole career, and it made him a much better #5 hitter than a #2 or #3. For the time being, I'm much happier with Benny hitting 5th or even 7th than entrusting him to 3rd.

Having said that, with Pedroia out you might try him at leadoff to see if he can adapt to not being pitched around. Benny, Betts, Bour, Martinez, Devers, Bogaerts, Bradley, Vazquez, Hernandez (or Lin)/ Holt would be a great lineup even without Pedey. In mys roster plan, you have Hanley to hit for Bour, and if they bring in a LHR to pitch to Hernandez (or Holt or Lin) and Benny, Brentz hits for Hernandez (etc.) and Holt (etc.) replaces him defensively. People who think that Brentz has no role on a team where Hanley is already the Chris Young type are forgetting that with Pedey out, we almost certainly will have a LH-hitting 2B at the bottom of the lineup.


Yeah, it's probably not realistic to take on any more of Chen's salary then you'd pay to a LHR you were getting elsewhere. And they probably would prefer a LHR who was cost-controlled rather than a FA. And maybe you don't add that guy to the pen at all. But in that case, Johnson stays here and something else goes to Miami.

There would always be a deal, however, where Chen comes here at an acceptable price. It would just mean giving more in prospects. A package of excess prospects for Chen at a price of, say $4M of his $16M AAV, would be a great deal if those prospects are truly blocked. Meanwhile, the Marlins are giving up a guy who's not going to have any impact on their rebuilding years and getting a nice prospect package plus $4M against Chen's sunk cost. They are in a tricky position of simultaneously cutting payroll and building for the future.

Just for the record, Alonso's season does break down into three dramatically different chunks:

.314 / .399 / .663 (193 PA) April 3 to June 10
.201 / .318 / .348 (192 PA) June 11 to August 11 (first 3 games with Mariners)
.288 / .382 / .483 (136 PA) August 12 to October 1

We know the first line is a changed approach, and the second line looks like the league figuring out how to pitch him again. The third line could be his adjustment in return.

Both his season line (114 OPS+) and especially the last line are better than his previous career numbers (103 OPS+), so it seems likely that he made himself a better hitter. But he's had two terrible defensive years in a row, after being very good, so he's probably a DH. He's had 104 career PA as a PH or DH and suffered the usual penalty, so it's unclear that he can thrive in that role. It makes much more sense to get Bour at whatever prospect price it takes.

Imagine thinking this about the dude with nearly 1500 games played at second base.