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Post by ramireja on Oct 19, 2017 12:47:44 GMT -5
I'm surprised there has been a decent amount of love for Hosmer among the board. Recency bias? He's likely to be one of the priciest 1B options on the market, if not the priciest. Yet according to Fangraphs, he has flipped-flopped between first-division starter/borderline all-star years (between 3.2 and 4.1 WAR in 2013, 2015, 2017) and replacement level player or worse years (between -1.7 and 0.0 WAR in 2012, 2014, 2016) for the last 6 years now. I'm not personally a believer in good year/bad year theories, but if you are, he is due for a replacement level year next year.
Also, if you're of the opinion that we need to add power to our lineup, replacing Moreland (IsoP between .189-.204 for the last three years) with Hosmer (IsoP between .162-.179 for the last three years) doesn't seem like a way to do it. Hosmer is likely to be the better hitter, but he doesn't add power to the lineup subtracting Moreland, and he will come at a much greater cost.
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 19, 2017 15:02:34 GMT -5
Hustle is not admirable? Hmmmm. There are a number of times during a season where infield errors are made and had the runner not dogged it, he would have been safe. In a given case, it could affect game outcome. I recall when someone commented to Red Auerbach that his team was not that talented ... that it just hustled. Auerbach's reply was that "hustle is a talent". Papi couldn't do it physically because of severe problems with his achilles. Pedroia, within his physical abilities, always gives best effort. There's a difference. He's not saying don't run. He's saying there are times when sprinting like it's going to be a close play isn't worth it. Run hard out of the box, yes. Sprinting like it's the 9th inning of game 7 on a 4-3 groundout in the third inning in April, meh. Again, not saying one shouldn't try to run hard, but there's a point of diminishing returns. Ok I'll grant a hard smash directly at a first or second baseman fielded cleanly is a different situation but I didn't see that nuance outlined. Most balls hit to third or short result in fairly close plays at first for a determined and not slow-twitch runner. Running hard for 30 yards once or twice/game shouldn't be overly taxing and puts a lot of pressure on the fielder. The fielder has to pick the ball cleanly and make a good throw. We see lots of thrown balls from the left side wide or in the dirt at least partially the result of exigency. If we can applaud the runner going first to third on an outfield single resulting in a close but safe call or where he might force a hurried, off-target throw, then I am more than willing to champion the batter as outlined.
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1B in 2018
Oct 19, 2017 21:51:35 GMT -5
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Post by pedroiaesque on Oct 19, 2017 21:51:35 GMT -5
I'm surprised there has been a decent amount of love for Hosmer among the board. Recency bias? He's likely to be one of the priciest 1B options on the market, if not the priciest. Yet according to Fangraphs, he has flipped-flopped between first-division starter/borderline all-star years (between 3.2 and 4.1 WAR in 2013, 2015, 2017) and replacement level player or worse years (between -1.7 and 0.0 WAR in 2012, 2014, 2016) for the last 6 years now. I'm not personally a believer in good year/bad year theories, but if you are, he is due for a replacement level year next year. Also, if you're of the opinion that we need to add power to our lineup, replacing Moreland (IsoP between .189-.204 for the last three years) with Hosmer (IsoP between .162-.179 for the last three years) doesn't seem like a way to do it. Hosmer is likely to be the better hitter, but he doesn't add power to the lineup subtracting Moreland, and he will come at a much greater cost. I’m not saying I love Hosmer (or that I’m in love with him). I was just saying that he’d likely be adequate, if not flashy. I think he can be viewed as the “safe” choice at 1B. I’d much rather JD, or even another 1-yr with Moreland if he’s willing to come back on a short term contract. The problem with JD is not a problem with JD, per se, but that it still leaves 1B as a question mark. At least with Moreland, you actually address 1B, even if you fail to make the team better.
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Post by jdb on Oct 21, 2017 10:06:56 GMT -5
I think Nick Castellanos could be a buy low guy on the radar. He came on during the 2nd half and he was in the top 5 of qualifiers in hard hit % on fangraphs and near the bottom of soft contact. He should be able to play an average 1B and could be a 30-35 HR type in Fenway. He isn't the big bopper we need in the middle but as a second hitter added he could fit the mold.
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Post by soxjim on Oct 21, 2017 11:56:35 GMT -5
I think Nick Castellanos could be a buy low guy on the radar. He came on during the 2nd half and he was in the top 5 of qualifiers in hard hit % on fangraphs and near the bottom of soft contact. He should be able to play an average 1B and could be a 30-35 HR type in Fenway. He isn't the big bopper we need in the middle but as a second hitter added he could fit the mold. I was thinking the Tigers would want a lot or prospects for him. He'll only be 26 in March.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 21, 2017 13:31:21 GMT -5
I think Nick Castellanos could be a buy low guy on the radar. He came on during the 2nd half and he was in the top 5 of qualifiers in hard hit % on fangraphs and near the bottom of soft contact. He should be able to play an average 1B and could be a 30-35 HR type in Fenway. He isn't the big bopper we need in the middle but as a second hitter added he could fit the mold. I was thinking the Tigers would want a lot or prospects for him. He'll only be 26 in March. He's amassed 1.3 career WAR, has been horrible defensively, and is a free agent in two years. I don't think he'd cost a whole lot.
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Post by soxjim on Oct 21, 2017 14:28:51 GMT -5
I was thinking the Tigers would want a lot or prospects for him. He'll only be 26 in March. He's amassed 1.3 career WAR, has been horrible defensively, and is a free agent in two years. I don't think he'd cost a whole lot. I don't think much of career war . But I didn't know he had just 2018 and 2019. Okay -- I'm on board!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 21, 2017 16:06:53 GMT -5
So, how many 1B will be available, and how many teams needs 1B?
The latter question is complicated by the fact that AL teams may also be looking for a DH. So let's start with the NL teams.
Which turns out to be easy. Running them down in order of 2017 roster quality:
LAD: Cody Bellinger Ari: Paul Goldschmidt Was: Ryan Zimmerman ChC: Anthony Rizzo StL: Matt Carpenter Mil: Eric Thames. Was surprisingly bad on defense (-5 in just 850+ innings) and was a bad baserunner (-4), dragging him down to average, but he was 10 runs above average as a hitter. They'll certainly give him another year there before even contemplating a trade to the AL and a DH role. (His overall WAR was dragged down by a Hanley-level disaster in 170 OF innings). Col: They have MLB.com's #55 prospect, Ryan McMahon, as a conversion from 3B. Mia: Justin Bour. Due for a $3M raise as they try to cut $50M, so they would be open to trading him, especially if you take salary off their hands. Cin: Joey Votto Pit: Josh Bell. Just 1.7 WAR in his sophomore year, but a big improvement on D. They'll give him every chance to take a similar step forward with the bat and become a good player. NYM: Dominic Smith struggled in his two months but had a great first half of September and is still the 1B of their future. Atl: Freddie Freeman Phi: Rhys Hoskins SD: Wil Myers SF: Brandon Belt
So I don't think a single NL team is in the market. Davenport peak translations say that McMahon, Bell, and Smith will all be at least average hitters as MLB starting 1B.
AL next, and just the Yankees' situation is more interesting than the entire NL.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 21, 2017 16:36:37 GMT -5
I was thinking the Tigers would want a lot or prospects for him. He'll only be 26 in March. He's amassed 1.3 career WAR, has been horrible defensively, and is a free agent in two years. I don't think he'd cost a whole lot. For the price I'd rather just give Brentz an MLB minimum contract and perhaps find a platoon partner or let him split the time with Hanley.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 22, 2017 1:59:54 GMT -5
Before doing the AL, let's see if we can figure out how the Marlins plan to pare $50M from their payroll.
First, before they bought the team, Jeter et al said they wanted to reduce the payroll to $55M if they traded Stanton, or $80M if they kept him (the difference being Stanton's salary). Now they're saying their aim is $90M, which indicates they plan to keep Stanton. This makes a ton of sense, because he's their major (if not only) attendance draw, and because given his crazy contract and year-to-year inconsistency and injury problems, it's unclear how much trade value he actually has at present. He's on record as saying he wants no part of a rebild, but he might have to wait a year or even two if he decides he'd rather be traded.
Running down their most expensive contracts, starting with guys with positive remaining trade value:
Martin Prado, due $13.5, then $15 ($13.33 AAV) for his age 35 season. He lost most of this year due to a pair of hamstring pulls (one in ST and a reinjury in early May) and a knee injury that required surgery. He was coming off seasons of 2.0 and 3.5 WAR. Assuming the knee is OK, they should definitely be able to move the contract, although they probably won't get much of a return.
Marcell Ozuna, projected to get $10.9M in arbitration, more in 2019, then go to free agency with Scott Boras as his agent. Coming off a 5.8 WAR season. Should get a very nice return.
Dee Gordon, due $10.5M, then $13, $13.5, and $14 versus a $1 buyout for his age 33 season ($10M AAV). He's coming off a 3.1 WAR season and was somewhat better than that over his previous two years. Also very tradeable.
That's $34.9. You still need to cut $15M.
They have two guys who are worthless, or nearly so, and are due to make $20M between them.
Junichi Tazawa is due $7M ($6M AAV). He was basically terrible the whole year and was out for a month in May and June.
Edinson Volquez is owed $13M ($11M AAV) for a walk year he will spend recovering from TJ surgery. That picture's in the dictionary next to "worthless."
So what they could do is eat $5M of Volquez's salary and include him and the remaining $8M as a salary dump in either the Ozuna or Gordon trade, and include Tazawa as a dump in the other. Of course, they'd get a lesser prospect return, so they'd have to target bigger-market clubs ... but since those tend to have weaker systems at present (the Yankees excluded), that's probably not a big problem.
So they have no need to deal Bour. However, if they were approached with a prospects package (starting with Sam Travis) for Bour and Tazawa, would they do that? If the prospect package were right, I think they absolutely would. They save another $3.5M (Bour's projected arb salary), which they could then eat when trading Volquez or Prado to get a better return, and of course they no longer have to include Tazawa in one of the other trades as well. Meanwhile, we'd DFA Tazawa and bring him to ST as an NRI.
One more negative contract they have is Brad Ziegler, due $9M ($8M AAV). He was brilliant in April (0.71 ERA, 425 OPS allowed in 13G), awful in May and June (11.02, 1062 in 21 G), missed 6 weeks with a back strain that was presumably bothering him since May 1, was brilliant in August (0.00, 437, 9 for 9 saves in 13 G) and bad in September (7.20, 917) including two weeks out with the bad back. Given his age and health, he probably projects to be worth about $6M. But the smart thing to do would be to hang on to him, hope he has a healthy year and deal him at the deadline for real value
The one guy they can't deal is Wei-Yin Chen. He missed 10 starts in 2016 and most of this year with an elbow injury that ended up as a partially torn UCL, and he's already had TJ surgery. His health status for 2018 is unclear. They have to hope he can recover some trade value.
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Post by artfuldodger on Oct 22, 2017 8:06:58 GMT -5
Living in South Florida, I follow the Marlins as well. Neither Jeter nor Sherman have publicly indicated a payroll amount. They will have their organizational meetings in the next week or so to set the level. Early indications are that the Marlins will want a shortstop and/or pitching in the trade. The Marlins may give up more talent than they receive to get payroll savings, but they will want talent that they can show to the fans. Marlins blogs that talk about trades with the Red Sox generally mention EROD, Bogaerts, and Bradley either in straight up trades or in combination. Where do you see a match?
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Post by ryan24 on Oct 22, 2017 8:51:24 GMT -5
I see Dave doing several things here. He may be up against the 237 salary number, but needs a power hitter in the middle of the lineup. Most opinions have him is going after J D M. I think he stays in Arizona, but that is just a guess/ feeling. I can see him keeping Moreland, at a reasonable 2 yr number., 5/7. I can see Porcello gone. Pay half his salary and see what you can get in return. The main idea is to lose salary. I can see Hanley getting dumped . Paying half the salary and getting back whatever. I also think that you will see Dave look at start exploring trades for XB and JBJ. See what he can get back. Not giving them away. I think Dave is looking at not just this coming year's salary but the start of long term control of managing the cap. 1st base is just a start. The power hitter needs HAS to fit into the LONG TERM salary structure.
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1B in 2018
Oct 22, 2017 10:32:28 GMT -5
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 22, 2017 10:32:28 GMT -5
I see Dave doing several things here. He may be up against the 237 salary number, but needs a power hitter in the middle of the lineup. Most opinions have him is going after J D M. I think he stays in Arizona, but that is just a guess/ feeling. I can see him keeping Moreland, at a reasonable 2 yr number., 5/7. I can see Porcello gone. Pay half his salary and see what you can get in return. The main idea is to lose salary. I can see Hanley getting dumped . Paying half the salary and getting back whatever. I also think that you will see Dave look at start exploring trades for XB and JBJ. See what he can get back. Not giving them away. I think Dave is looking at not just this coming year's salary but the start of long term control of managing the cap. 1st base is just a start. The power hitter needs HAS to fit into the LONG TERM salary structure. I would think if the sox do trade porcello they wouldn't have to eat as much as half of his contract. I would think they could get away with 5 million a year or so. That would put him down to 15 a year for 2 more years I believe. Compared to some of the contracts being thrown out to pitchers that would be pretty team friendly.
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1B in 2018
Oct 22, 2017 10:55:45 GMT -5
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Post by m1keyboots on Oct 22, 2017 10:55:45 GMT -5
Someone mentioned Bour. I'll just say this, I spent a couple years in college with him. Id rather not put the Bosox players through all that. Although I'm sure he's all super professional now and everything
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 22, 2017 11:11:36 GMT -5
Living in South Florida, I follow the Marlins as well. Neither Jeter nor Sherman have publicly indicated a payroll amount. They will have their organizational meetings in the next week or so to set the level. Early indications are that the Marlins will want a shortstop and/or pitching in the trade. The Marlins may give up more talent than they receive to get payroll savings, but they will want talent that they can show to the fans. Marlins blogs that talk about trades with the Red Sox generally mention EROD, Bogaerts, and Bradley either in straight up trades or in combination. Where do you see a match? The $90M figure was reportedly ( Clark Spencer in the Miami Herald, 10/13) in the operating plan they submitted for approval by league owners. They'll get some serious talent for Ozuna and Gordon, who would be good fits for any team that has been rebuilding, still has farm system depth, and thinks they can make a big step forward in 2018. But they won't get as much talent as the bloggers dream of. Jeter has warned fans that there will be "unpopular decisions" "at times."
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 22, 2017 11:23:52 GMT -5
I see Dave doing several things here. He may be up against the 237 salary number, but needs a power hitter in the middle of the lineup. Most opinions have him is going after J D M. I think he stays in Arizona, but that is just a guess/ feeling. I can see him keeping Moreland, at a reasonable 2 yr number., 5/7. I can see Porcello gone. Pay half his salary and see what you can get in return. The main idea is to lose salary. I can see Hanley getting dumped . Paying half the salary and getting back whatever. I also think that you will see Dave look at start exploring trades for XB and JBJ. See what he can get back. Not giving them away. I think Dave is looking at not just this coming year's salary but the start of long term control of managing the cap. 1st base is just a start. The power hitter needs HAS to fit into the LONG TERM salary structure. This is completely wrong. The Sox have ridiculous revenues. They got under the luxury tax limit this year to avoid the extra penalty (an extra 20% of the overage, 50% versus 30%) for going over it three years in a row. Now that they've done that and are back to a 20% surcharge, they'll spend without reservations in the short term, then try to get just under the limit again (at least $206M) in 2020. The Yankees, which have way more ridiculous revenues, are going under the limit next year for the same reason.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 22, 2017 13:01:24 GMT -5
So, the AL, in descending order of 2017 roster quality.
The Cleveland Indians are reportedly adamant about re-signing Carlos Santana, even though they have a very good prospect who's a year away (or less) in Bobby Bradley. Of course, they're set at DH with Encarnacion. I think this makes good sense and I see no reason why it wouldn't happen.
The New York Yankees have about $40M to spend this winter and need to add a frontline starting pitcher (assuming that top pitching prospect Chance Adams will be expected only to provide depth in 2018), and quite possibly re-sign Tanaka for a bit more than the $22M he's currently penciled in for, if he opts out. (He's got 3/$67M left, and a simple 3-2-1 weighting of his WAR, which has been very good at projecting FA pitching contracts, pegs him as worth $24M a year. And that doesn't include his great 2017 post-season. So unless there are negative reports on his UCL that suggest his terrible start to 2017 was something that's likely to happen more often than not, he can do better, perhaps 4/$100. Jon Heyman has reported that the Yankees will let him walk if he opts out, but Heyman seems to be a paid shill for MFY interests.)
Greg Bird seems certain to continue as the 1B (if there's any doubt about that, Nick Cafardo reported today that they still have to decide that). If they stand pat with the position roster, at mid-season or sooner they have Miguel Andujar at 3B and Chase Headley, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Clint Frazier sharing DH and the last two bench spots.
Now, Headley would be a great backup 1B/ 3B and Ellsbury a great 4th OFer (both, of course, insanely expensive for their roles), but the platoon combo with them and Frazier projects to be mediocre at DH. And Frazier, who has no chance of cracking the starting OF, is way too promising to be relegated to 5th OFer in the short term, and by the time they move on from Brett Gardner (which may be a while), they can have Estevan Florial as a possibly better alternative.
What better way to maximize the value on the $40M than to get a $30M+ talent who will cost them $20M in arbitration? So the dream plan for Brian Cashman has to be 1) Either a) re-sign Sabathia for $20M, which seems about right, or b) decide that Shohei Otani can step right in and be the guy they need, and sign him, and 2) trade Frazier and whatever it takes to the White Sox for Jose Abreu to be the regular DH. The White Sox could make room for Frazier by then dealing breakout surprise Asivail Garcia, who will be a FA before 2020, the first year they expect to contend.
However, it seems unlikely that the White Sox will move Abreu this winter. Even though his contract, too, will be up before they expect to contend, he wants to stay, and is a clubhouse leader. The smart thing to do would be to wait until July and either trade him at the deadline if the rebuild has suffered some setbacks (e.g., Kopech going Henry Owens on them), or extend him next winter if it's going strong. But the MFY's have enough talent to make the White Sox a Godfather offer -- if they want to.
It's not an easy decision for either team. The Yankees should be able to squeeze under the cap if they re-sign Tanaka for $25M, Sabathia for $20M, and trade for Abreu, but it would leave them little little or no flexibility at the trade deadline. Then again, with that roster, and talent in AAA, they might not need anybody then. If they can't pry Abreu away, it's unclear how they can spend all the money they can afford to. OTOH, overpaying for Abreu might not be smart. OTTH, accepting even a prospect overpay for Abreu may not be smart for the White Sox.
Next: Astros, Red Sox, and Rays.
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Post by soxjim on Oct 22, 2017 13:19:26 GMT -5
I see Dave doing several things here. He may be up against the 237 salary number, but needs a power hitter in the middle of the lineup. Most opinions have him is going after J D M. I think he stays in Arizona, but that is just a guess/ feeling. I can see him keeping Moreland, at a reasonable 2 yr number., 5/7. I can see Porcello gone. Pay half his salary and see what you can get in return. The main idea is to lose salary. I can see Hanley getting dumped . Paying half the salary and getting back whatever. I also think that you will see Dave look at start exploring trades for XB and JBJ. See what he can get back. Not giving them away. I think Dave is looking at not just this coming year's salary but the start of long term control of managing the cap. 1st base is just a start. The power hitter needs HAS to fit into the LONG TERM salary structure. This is completely wrong. The Sox have ridiculous revenues. They got under the luxury tax limit this year to avoid the extra penalty (an extra 20% of the overage, 50% versus 30%) for going over it three years in a row. Now that they've done that and are back to a 20% surcharge, they'll spend without reservations in the short term, then try to get just under the limit again (at least $206M) in 2020. The Yankees, which have way more ridiculous revenues, are going under the limit next year for the same reason. What are you projecting they will spend? $245M with about a $5m - $7m buffer for in-season trades?
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Post by Guidas on Oct 22, 2017 13:23:51 GMT -5
I see Dave doing several things here. He may be up against the 237 salary number, but needs a power hitter in the middle of the lineup. Most opinions have him is going after J D M. I think he stays in Arizona, but that is just a guess/ feeling. I can see him keeping Moreland, at a reasonable 2 yr number., 5/7. I can see Porcello gone. Pay half his salary and see what you can get in return. The main idea is to lose salary. I can see Hanley getting dumped . Paying half the salary and getting back whatever. I also think that you will see Dave look at start exploring trades for XB and JBJ. See what he can get back. Not giving them away. I think Dave is looking at not just this coming year's salary but the start of long term control of managing the cap. 1st base is just a start. The power hitter needs HAS to fit into the LONG TERM salary structure. This is completely wrong. The Sox have ridiculous revenues. They got under the luxury tax limit this year to avoid the extra penalty (an extra 20% of the overage, 50% versus 30%) for going over it three years in a row. Now that they've done that and are back to a 20% surcharge, they'll spend without reservations in the short term, then try to get just under the limit again (at least $206M) in 2020. The Yankees, which have way more ridiculous revenues, are going under the limit next year for the same reason. So then, theoretically, the Sox could "afford" JD Martinez during the 2017-18 off season and Manny Machado or Bryce Harper in the 2018-19 off season as long as they get a few pennies under after the 2020 season? Or are one of the latter two, who will likely get in excess of $34M per year for 10 years, a bridge too far (unless one or both could be convinced to take a 4-year deal so they get another bite at the FA apple around age 30)?
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 22, 2017 14:18:02 GMT -5
I see Dave doing several things here. He may be up against the 237 salary number, but needs a power hitter in the middle of the lineup. Most opinions have him is going after J D M. I think he stays in Arizona, but that is just a guess/ feeling. I can see him keeping Moreland, at a reasonable 2 yr number., 5/7. I can see Porcello gone. Pay half his salary and see what you can get in return. The main idea is to lose salary. I can see Hanley getting dumped . Paying half the salary and getting back whatever. I also think that you will see Dave look at start exploring trades for XB and JBJ. See what he can get back. Not giving them away. I think Dave is looking at not just this coming year's salary but the start of long term control of managing the cap. 1st base is just a start. The power hitter needs HAS to fit into the LONG TERM salary structure. This is completely wrong. The Sox have ridiculous revenues. They got under the luxury tax limit this year to avoid the extra penalty (an extra 20% of the overage, 50% versus 30%) for going over it three years in a row. Now that they've done that and are back to a 20% surcharge, they'll spend without reservations in the short term, then try to get just under the limit again (at least $206M) in 2020. The Yankees, which have way more ridiculous revenues, are going under the limit next year for the same reason. There is some logic to this, but there are still questions. It seems likely they will blow past the limit in 2018, but do we think they will go above $237M? Will they accept a lower draft pick for two years? And do we think it is possible to spend like the Dodgers for two years and then get under $206M in the third year? Or do they just keep growing and pay the big big penalty in 2020 and beyond with those "ridiculous revenues"? I'm not sure how to be confident about any answer.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 22, 2017 23:01:05 GMT -5
This is completely wrong. The Sox have ridiculous revenues. They got under the luxury tax limit this year to avoid the extra penalty (an extra 20% of the overage, 50% versus 30%) for going over it three years in a row. Now that they've done that and are back to a 20% surcharge, they'll spend without reservations in the short term, then try to get just under the limit again (at least $206M) in 2020. The Yankees, which have way more ridiculous revenues, are going under the limit next year for the same reason. What are you projecting they will spend? $245M with about a $5m - $7m buffer for in-season trades? So then, theoretically, the Sox could "afford" JD Martinez during the 2017-18 off season and Manny Machado or Bryce Harper in the 2018-19 off season as long as they get a few pennies under after the 2020 season? Or are one of the latter two, who will likely get in excess of $34M per year for 10 years, a bridge too far (unless one or both could be convinced to take a 4-year deal so they get another bite at the FA apple around age 30)? There is some logic to this, but there are still questions. It seems likely they will blow past the limit in 2018, but do we think they will go above $237M? Will they accept a lower draft pick for two years? And do we think it is possible to spend like the Dodgers for two years and then get under $206M in the third year? Or do they just keep growing and pay the big big penalty in 2020 and beyond with those "ridiculous revenues"? I'm not sure how to be confident about any answer. The Sox salary commitments for next year are $145,726,429. Projected arbitration figures total $48M. The opening day roster that I'm projecting has as many as 6 pre-arb players (Johnson, Barnes, Swihart, Devers, Benintendi, Brentz); at an average $675K each, that gets you to a bit under $198K. J.D. Martinez's 3-year-weighted WAR is exactly 90% as good as Encarnacion's was a year ago, but he's also 4 years younger. EE got $20M, so a JDM AAV in the $22M to $25M range seems likely. If they trade for Bour and eat Tazawa's contract to get him, that adds $10M. So now you're at $230 - $233. I still want to add a good LHR, so that puts you just at or above the point where the surcharge kicks in. Trading Leon might keep you under. Trading Rusney gets you quite a bit under. The thing to remember is that you pay the surcharge just on the amount you go over $237M. Going over by $1M or $2M is not a concern. By 2020, if they re-sign nobody, they will have shed $107.2M, or $119M if they've moved Rusney, plus the $6M for Tazawa I included in my hypothetical. So staying under the cap is just a matter of filling in a spreadsheet correctly.The question is how good you'll be while staying under. They'll have about $95 to $100M to play with, and a good chunk of that will have gone to arb increases. If Groome's in the rotation and Shawaryn's the closer, they don't need too much else in the way of regulars -- a SP or two, a SS.
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Post by jackiebradleyjrjr on Oct 23, 2017 0:08:27 GMT -5
There's a difference. He's not saying don't run. He's saying there are times when sprinting like it's going to be a close play isn't worth it. Run hard out of the box, yes. Sprinting like it's the 9th inning of game 7 on a 4-3 groundout in the third inning in April, meh. Again, not saying one shouldn't try to run hard, but there's a point of diminishing returns. Ok I'll grant a hard smash directly at a first or second baseman fielded cleanly is a different situation but I didn't see that nuance outlined. Most balls hit to third or short result in fairly close plays at first for a determined and not slow-twitch runner. Running hard for 30 yards once or twice/game shouldn't be overly taxing and puts a lot of pressure on the fielder. The fielder has to pick the ball cleanly and make a good throw. We see lots of thrown balls from the left side wide or in the dirt at least partially the result of exigency. If we can applaud the runner going first to third on an outfield single resulting in a close but safe call or where he might force a hurried, off-target throw, then I am more than willing to champion the batter as outlined. Agreed. Running hard may be diminishing marginal returns, but there's also an extremely low opportunity cost involved in running a few extra feet faster.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 23, 2017 0:48:00 GMT -5
While the Marlins could do that, they would really hurt the value of Gordon and Ozuna. While eating 7 and 8 million isn't a big deal for the Bostons and New Yorks usually, money matters all of a suden. You would limit the teams interested in those guys. For a team that needs to rebuild the the farm system not sure I would handle it that way. I wouldn't want to limit my return on a player like Ozuna.
I would still do a Bour and Taz for Travis, but I wouldn't add much else. Adding Taz has me removing a decent second piece in that deal.
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Post by wildcardwillie on Oct 23, 2017 10:48:22 GMT -5
What would it take to get someone like C.J. Cron...?
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Post by Guidas on Oct 23, 2017 14:03:03 GMT -5
What are you projecting they will spend? $245M with about a $5m - $7m buffer for in-season trades? So then, theoretically, the Sox could "afford" JD Martinez during the 2017-18 off season and Manny Machado or Bryce Harper in the 2018-19 off season as long as they get a few pennies under after the 2020 season? Or are one of the latter two, who will likely get in excess of $34M per year for 10 years, a bridge too far (unless one or both could be convinced to take a 4-year deal so they get another bite at the FA apple around age 30)? There is some logic to this, but there are still questions. It seems likely they will blow past the limit in 2018, but do we think they will go above $237M? Will they accept a lower draft pick for two years? And do we think it is possible to spend like the Dodgers for two years and then get under $206M in the third year? Or do they just keep growing and pay the big big penalty in 2020 and beyond with those "ridiculous revenues"? I'm not sure how to be confident about any answer. The Sox salary commitments for next year are $145,726,429. Projected arbitration figures total $48M. The opening day roster that I'm projecting has as many as 6 pre-arb players (Johnson, Barnes, Swihart, Devers, Benintendi, Brentz); at an average $675K each, that gets you to a bit under $198K. J.D. Martinez's 3-year-weighted WAR is exactly 90% as good as Encarnacion's was a year ago, but he's also 4 years younger. EE got $20M, so a JDM AAV in the $22M to $25M range seems likely. If they trade for Bour and eat Tazawa's contract to get him, that adds $10M. So now you're at $230 - $233. I still want to add a good LHR, so that puts you just at or above the point where the surcharge kicks in. Trading Leon might keep you under. Trading Rusney gets you quite a bit under.The thing to remember is that you pay the surcharge just on the amount you go over $237M. Going over by $1M or $2M is not a concern. By 2020, if they re-sign nobody, they will have shed $107.2M, or $119M if they've moved Rusney, plus the $6M for Tazawa I included in my hypothetical. So staying under the cap is just a matter of filling in a spreadsheet correctly.The question is how good you'll be while staying under. They'll have about $95 to $100M to play with, and a good chunk of that will have gone to arb increases. If Groome's in the rotation and Shawaryn's the closer, they don't need too much else in the way of regulars -- a SP or two, a SS. They're paying him but Rusney does not count against the tax, correct?
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