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Should the Sox be looking for someone to bat Leadoff?
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Post by dmaineah on Nov 14, 2017 11:57:47 GMT -5
Who bats leadoff? With Pedroia slated to miss the first 2 months of the season should the Sox be looking for someone to bat leadoff? Betts is a possibility but I think the team needs him in the 3 hole (personally I would prefer him to bat 2nd). Maybe Bogaerts bats leadoff (but I prefer him in the 6 or 7 slot). Currently this is how I see the lineup; 1) (Marco Hernandez) 2)Benintendi 3)Betts 4) (Carlos Santana) 5)Hanley 6)Devers 7)Bogaerts 8)JBJ 9)Vazquez
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Nov 14, 2017 12:15:05 GMT -5
I think that Xander is an ideal candidate to bat leadoff if he’s injury-free. People forget just how good he was in 2016 and the first half of 2017. He clearly wasn’t right/healthy after being hit by that pitch in the hand. If we are able to land a big bat this offseason and make no other moves, this would be my lineup:
1. Xander Bogaerts SS 2. Andrew Benintendi LF 3. Mookie Betts RF 4. J.D. Martinez DH 5. Rafael Devers 3B 6. Hanley Ramirez 1B 7. Jackie Bradley Jr. CF 8. Dustin Pedroia 2B 9. Christian Vazquez C
Why do I hit JBJ in between Hanley and Pedey? It’s simple really, to protect him since both of them destroy lefties.
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Post by jmei on Nov 14, 2017 13:31:38 GMT -5
No. Any of Bogaerts, Benintendi or Betts would make a fine leadoff hitter. If the question is rephrased as "do the Red Sox need to sign a starter-level second baseman to take over until Pedroia can play," now that's a more interesting question.
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Post by nonothing on Nov 14, 2017 14:39:37 GMT -5
The question is whether Cora will be able to get Bogey to run. Cora wants to run. This was a very athletic team, and if you look at the SBs by Bogaerts (15) and Bradley (8 - even Vazquez had 7, so 8 is horrible for a guy this athletic and fast), they are weak compared to what they should be given tools available. I think Betts will hit 2 ahead of Beni because he is a much better base-runner. Beni will be good and stole 20 bags, but he made some very bone-headed errors on bases as well. If they can get Bogey to run more as well, it would be a big help to the offense. Otherwise, Bogey should hit down in the order and let Betts and Beni make pitchers nervous facing the heart of the order.
Will Hernandez run? Maybe, but I don't see them hitting him leadoff, and Pedey will not lead off much in future as he ages. His base-running has gone south somewhat. There is a much better chance his power comes back than his speed. The lineup is very good with Pedey down low because a pitcher can never let up.
I would love to see a Bogey who leads off and just tries to get on base and make pitchers squirm. His AVG/OBP are leadoff quality when he just tries to hit the ball to all fields (at his best when going the other way frequently) and not try to hit for power. That would be the base case scenario for a lineup with Bogey in it. He did not inspire me in the leadoff slot last year though in limited ABs. Maybe once he is healthy he will hit well from the leadoff spot. That is really his best slot in this order above 6 or 7 I think. If they can't get Bogey to run, then I expect they will bat Betts 1 and Bogey at 2 and Beni at 3 if they cannot find a more prototypical leadoff hitter than Betts, but I think that is suboptimal use of tools of Bogey and Betts. Anyway, Cora clearly likes the idea of running more and being disruptive on the base paths. He has already mentioned running more than Farrell probably did in last several years.
I would prefer to see them acquire a speedy leadoff hitter who annoys a lot on bases ahead of Betts and Beni and who plays great D at SS (Albies and Mateo my best ideas for guys they could try to get). But there are only a couple of those guys, so easier said than done -- even if I would prefer it, and yes, I do think it is important, and if they trade Bradley to create a spot for Martinez, the piece should be focus of that trade if at all possible (Hello Billy? Remember Boston?)
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 14, 2017 15:45:44 GMT -5
Xander was pretty great at leadoff last season (128 PAs). He changed his approach and walked a lot more and struck out a lot less than when he was batting 3rd or 6th. His walk rate was 12.5% at leadoff and his OBP was .406. He's also one of the best baserunners in baseball (5th by BsR).
I'd bat him first unless/until he starts hitting lots of HR. It's the biggest no-brainer decision for the beginning of next season.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 14, 2017 16:49:38 GMT -5
The question is whether Cora will be able to get Bogey to run. Cora wants to run. This was a very athletic team, and if you look at the SBs by Bogaerts (15) and Bradley (8 - even Vazquez had 7, so 8 is horrible for a guy this athletic and fast), they are weak compared to what they should be given tools available. I think Betts will hit 2 ahead of Beni because he is a much better base-runner. Beni will be good and stole 20 bags, but he made some very bone-headed errors on bases as well. If they can get Bogey to run more as well, it would be a big help to the offense. Otherwise, Bogey should hit down in the order and let Betts and Beni make pitchers nervous facing the heart of the order. Will Hernandez run? Maybe, but I don't see them hitting him leadoff, and Pedey will not lead off much in future as he ages. His base-running has gone south somewhat. There is a much better chance his power comes back than his speed. The lineup is very good with Pedey down low because a pitcher can never let up. I would love to see a Bogey who leads off and just tries to get on base and make pitchers squirm. His AVG/OBP are leadoff quality when he just tries to hit the ball to all fields (at his best when going the other way frequently) and not try to hit for power. That would be the base case scenario for a lineup with Bogey in it. He did not inspire me in the leadoff slot last year though in limited ABs. Maybe once he is healthy he will hit well from the leadoff spot. That is really his best slot in this order above 6 or 7 I think. If they can't get Bogey to run, then I expect they will bat Betts 1 and Bogey at 2 and Beni at 3 if they cannot find a more prototypical leadoff hitter than Betts, but I think that is suboptimal use of tools of Bogey and Betts. Anyway, Cora clearly likes the idea of running more and being disruptive on the base paths. He has already mentioned running more than Farrell probably did in last several years. I would prefer to see them acquire a speedy leadoff hitter who annoys a lot on bases ahead of Betts and Beni and who plays great D at SS (Albies and Mateo my best ideas for guys they could try to get). But there are only a couple of those guys, so easier said than done -- even if I would prefer it, and yes, I do think it is important, and if they trade Bradley to create a spot for Martinez, the piece should be focus of that trade if at all possible (Hello Billy? Remember Boston?) Not sure where you're getting the idea that Bogaerts is fast. He isn't. He's a very good baserunner and he's certainly not slow, but that's not the same thing as having stolen base speed. Bradley isn't really all that fast either - a lot of his outfield range is due to excellent instincts, reads, routes, etc., rather than footspeed. Again, neither is slow, but it's not like they have great speed but just are too stubborn to use it. As for the leadoff question, it's funny - Betts struck me as the perfect leadoff hitter when he was in Portland. Excellent plate discipline, great speed, made great contact. But it's almost like he got too good to hit leadoff.
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 14, 2017 17:32:38 GMT -5
I think some of this discussion depends on how many bats we sign and if we are facing a LHP/RHP. If we sign say, Martinez and Duda, then I can see the following:
VS LHP
Bogaerts/Betts Betts/Bogaerts Martinez Devers Ramirez Benintendi/Brents Bradley Vazquez/Leon Marrero
VS RHP
Betts Benintendi Martinez Devers Duda Bogaerts Hernandez Vazquez/Leon Bradley
If we sign a free agent other than Martinez, I could see Betts in the #3 hole vs lefties and righties.
I kind of like Betts then either Benny or Bogey at #2, I feel like Betts can go first to third setting the table more frequently for Martinez and Devers.
Just to point out, Benny (I know its early in his career) has been pretty bad vs lefties, this year was a bit better than his cup of coffee last year, but I believe he hits under .200 vs lefties.
Also, I don't think Ramirez has too much of a split, so its not like he is way better vs lefties.
Bogaerts on the other hand kills lefties, but could stand to get a few more days off earlier in the season, specifically vs tough righties.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 14, 2017 17:51:52 GMT -5
So, before we get too far down this road, while I don't want to stifle a valid discussion, it's WAY too early to have much serious discussion about lineups. We don't even know who's on the team yet.
I'm not going to tell anyone not to post, but... let's not get too far down the projected lineup road.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 14, 2017 19:06:09 GMT -5
The question is whether Cora will be able to get Bogey to run. Cora wants to run. This was a very athletic team, and if you look at the SBs by Bogaerts (15) and Bradley (8 - even Vazquez had 7, so 8 is horrible for a guy this athletic and fast), they are weak compared to what they should be given tools available. I think Betts will hit 2 ahead of Beni because he is a much better base-runner. Beni will be good and stole 20 bags, but he made some very bone-headed errors on bases as well. If they can get Bogey to run more as well, it would be a big help to the offense. Otherwise, Bogey should hit down in the order and let Betts and Beni make pitchers nervous facing the heart of the order. Will Hernandez run? Maybe, but I don't see them hitting him leadoff, and Pedey will not lead off much in future as he ages. His base-running has gone south somewhat. There is a much better chance his power comes back than his speed. The lineup is very good with Pedey down low because a pitcher can never let up. I would love to see a Bogey who leads off and just tries to get on base and make pitchers squirm. His AVG/OBP are leadoff quality when he just tries to hit the ball to all fields (at his best when going the other way frequently) and not try to hit for power. That would be the base case scenario for a lineup with Bogey in it. He did not inspire me in the leadoff slot last year though in limited ABs. Maybe once he is healthy he will hit well from the leadoff spot. That is really his best slot in this order above 6 or 7 I think. If they can't get Bogey to run, then I expect they will bat Betts 1 and Bogey at 2 and Beni at 3 if they cannot find a more prototypical leadoff hitter than Betts, but I think that is suboptimal use of tools of Bogey and Betts. Anyway, Cora clearly likes the idea of running more and being disruptive on the base paths. He has already mentioned running more than Farrell probably did in last several years. I would prefer to see them acquire a speedy leadoff hitter who annoys a lot on bases ahead of Betts and Beni and who plays great D at SS (Albies and Mateo my best ideas for guys they could try to get). But there are only a couple of those guys, so easier said than done -- even if I would prefer it, and yes, I do think it is important, and if they trade Bradley to create a spot for Martinez, the piece should be focus of that trade if at all possible (Hello Billy? Remember Boston?) Not sure where you're getting the idea that Bogaerts is fast. He isn't. He's a very good baserunner and he's certainly not slow, but that's not the same thing as having stolen base speed. Bradley isn't really all that fast either - a lot of his outfield range is due to excellent instincts, reads, routes, etc., rather than footspeed. Again, neither is slow, but it's not like they have great speed but just are too stubborn to use it. As for the leadoff question, it's funny - Betts struck me as the perfect leadoff hitter when he was in Portland. Excellent plate discipline, great speed, made great contact. But it's almost like he got too good to hit leadoff. I remember a past conversation in which we eventually agreed that Xander has plus speed (84th percentile among base runners recorded by statcast, so maybe just a little less if we're splitting hairs) along with being the fastest player on the Red Sox (not including Rajai Davis) but after double-checking the statcast vs stolen base data, what was interesting to me is that he was tied for 43rd (with Lindor) for most SBs in the majors. Even more interesting is that the AL leader in SBs had only 34. It seems Xander is stealing the number of bases expected given his speed, in the current era in which we are living. Our perceptions simply haven't changed yet. I'd go one step further than you and say that Bradley has only average speed (per statcast again) and he's actually slow for a CFer. Out of 58 baserunners he ranks 50th in baserunning speed. baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard?year=2017&position=8&team=&min=10
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Post by nonothing on Nov 16, 2017 16:21:34 GMT -5
Stealing bases is about being a great baserunner more than it is about speed. Instincts are huge. These guys are fast enough and smart and capable of taking more bags.
On SBs on the whole, MLB is down on running because people are chasing long ball. If your team does not hit HRs and you are athletic as a group, you should run more. Just my opinion. But also the guy they just hired to be manager - he seems to think same.
If they get a big bat or two, the SBs are less important. If they don't jack it out, they need to run more.
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