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Post by telson13 on Dec 20, 2017 0:35:36 GMT -5
Or just read this gem (on a Bogaerts+ Pomeranz/Rodriguez+ Chavis proposal): “As great as Manny Machado is, there’s just no way any rational calculation should suggest that a team should give up both Bogaerts and Rodriguez for rent-a-Machado. And the idea of that offer not being enough, and requiring a prospect on top of the package? That’s just crazy pants.”
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 29, 2017 20:30:39 GMT -5
Following Jon Morrisi's tweet, I'm trying to figure out a package to the Orioles that makes sense for both teams.
Porcello, Johnson, Xander, Swihart, Hembree, Hanley
For
Machado, Trumbo, O'Day
Would that work?
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Post by hongkyongnae on Dec 29, 2017 22:54:33 GMT -5
Interesting trade proposal. Yet, isn't Machado a free agent after one more year? That sounds like a lot to surrender for a rental.
I am assuming you are thinking of Machado as the Xander replacement. I have not seen Machado play shortstop, but when I looked at his fielding stats, he has a total of 52 games at that position in the majors. Can the Sox really trust the defensive position to him? I know he has two gold gloves, but those were at 3b, no?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 29, 2017 23:51:56 GMT -5
Following Jon Morrisi's tweet, I'm trying to figure out a package to the Orioles that makes sense for both teams. Porcello, Johnson, Xander, Swihart, Hembree, Hanley For Machado, Trumbo, O'Day Would that work? I can't imagine the Orioles would want to pay Porcello $40 million over the next two seasons. They are looking for pitching and the Orioles can never seem to concede the need to rebuild, and the Sox would have to pay a premium to Baltimore even to rent Machado, which is what they most likely would be doing. So, I'm not too certain what a trade with Baltimore looks like but I don't think it would be a nine player deal or anything like that. The Red Sox want Machado. The Orioles are looking for two starters they can plug into the rotation now and for the future for at least a few years. I imagine they'd also want to replace the hole from losing Machado. To me simply dealing Bogaerts' remaining two years for Machado's remaining season seems like a fair deal, but that won't cut it given what Baltimore says they're looking for and how much they'd prefer not to deal Machado to Boston or NY. So you figure among pitchers there is Groome as a high ceiling, far away prospect, Mata as another far away prospect, but with a much lesser ceiling than Groome, Brian Johnson who is out of options and capable of being a middle, but more likely back-end rotation starter, Beeks, another starter, who is close to major league ready, but projects as a back-end starter, but like Johnson, has plenty of service time to offer, and E-Rod, a major league starter with a lot of service time left and the potential to be a #2/#3 if he fully develops. Bogaerts would certainly replace the SS Machado was supposed to become. JBJ could be a guy to replace Adam Jones as their CF for a few more years. Chavis is certainly nearing major league ready and could be a 3b down the road for them. Matt Barnes or Heath Hembree are cheap and have plenty of service time. Of course Barnes has the higher ceiling. So somewhere among all of those guys there can be a package put together that could entice Baltimore without ruining the Red Sox. It wouldn't be value for value because Bogaerts for Machado alone is pretty much value for value. But I don't think the Sox have to both destroy their farm system and current roster. I would think that the Sox aren't eager to DH Devers or move him to 1b and would prefer him at 3b, defensive struggles and all. I think that makes Bogaerts expendable as I doubt the Sox would extend him anyways beyond 2019 because if he doesn't make a big leap forward on his offense, his defense at SS would eventually change his future value to a either a 2b or a 3b whose offense isn't that special. So I would think Bogaerts plus two starting pitchers. I would think the Sox would have to choose from either Rodriguez or Groome and add either Johnson or Beeks. Perhaps they'd attach either Hembree or Barnes to the mix as well, so it would wind up a 4-1 deal. Losing Bogaerts and E-Rod would hurt. The Sox would have to rely a lot on Velazquez and whoever remains between Beeks and Johnson as depth as the rotation would be Sale/Price/Pomeranz/Porcello/Wright. For 2018 they should be ok, but they'd need pitching help once Pomeranz leaves and then eventually Sale and Porcello could leave and they'd have to hope that Groome and Mata are rocketing up the system by 2020, although I don't think he'd be ready by then. The last two pieces would be depth pieces for the Sox. Given that the Orioles are going to wind up with nothing more than a draft pick, I do think they'll be forced into dealing Machado. With Bogaerts, E-Rod, Johnson, and Barnes (I[d prefer Hembree, but the Os would probably prefer Barnes) the Orioles perhaps could make that deal. Again valuewise, that's not great for the Sox, but that might be the price they'd have to pay to rent Machado for a year as opposed to the Yankees, who I think this season are using their chips for a cost controlled starting pitcher instead as they probably think of Machado as their free agent target for next season.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 30, 2017 3:44:32 GMT -5
Porcello, Johnson, Xander, Swihart, Hembree, Hanley For Machado, Trumbo, O'Day Champs with this said proposal, the only extra money that the Orioles would be paying for is Xander's 2nd arbitration year. Trumbo- 12.5 million AAV for 2 years left O'Day- 7.75 AAV for 2 years left (20 million) Machado- 3rd arb year 18-20 million Around 40 million total Hanley- 22 million AAV for 1 year Porcello- 20.5 million AAV for 2 years (42 million) Xander- 2nd arbitration year 7-9 million (49-51 million total) The Sox would be taking on Trumbo and O'Day who are both in their 30's. The Orioles would be taking on Porcello who will be 29. All for the same exact money AAV wise. I'd be willing to substitute Beeks for Johnson in the package to get a deal done, but not Eduardo Rodriguez. It makes zero sense for the Sox to do that. This trade would satisfy the Orioles need for 2 controllable young starters in their 20's. It would also give the Orioles another option at the catching position because they just let go of Wellington Castillo this offseason. It would give them a replacement for Machado in Xander, a replacement DH in Hanley, and a younger/cheap reliever in Hembree. I don't see how this would be a bad trade for the Orioles. In fact, it could be one of the best offers they could get. Porcello is a innings eater that they could really use. I'd be willing to kick in 2-3 million to even out the money so it was leveled in terms of salaries going back each way to get a deal done too.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 30, 2017 3:57:44 GMT -5
Interesting trade proposal. Yet, isn't Machado a free agent after one more year? That sounds like a lot to surrender for a rental. I am assuming you are thinking of Machado as the Xander replacement. I have not seen Machado play shortstop, but when I looked at his fielding stats, he has a total of 52 games at that position in the majors. Can the Sox really trust the defensive position to him? I know he has two gold gloves, but those were at 3b, no? Machado is a better short stop than Xander is right now, even after not playing short stop a lot in his major league career. Xander is not a good defensive short stop. Manny could probably save 10-15 runs on defense when compared to Xander, if not more than that. Machado is a special player defensively and has the tools to excel at short stop and can make plays that Xander can't dream of making. Manny has the arm, range, and the glove. He's the complete package and really just a overall improvement over Xander. I'd be fine with giving up these players. Swihart doesn't really have much of a role here. Hembree is a expendable reliever for the Sox. Johnson is out of options. The only reason why I'm interested in Machado is because he can play short stop at a elite level both on offense and defense. I wouldn't want him to play third base for the Sox at all.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 30, 2017 7:07:12 GMT -5
I don't think it makes much sense to trade for Machado. If you really want him you can just sign him next year for nothing. I won't even get into the debate if we should give Machado a massive deal. For the fun of it, lets see what options you have.
Option one a trade built around Bogaerts for Machado. Last 3 years Bogaerts averages 3.5 bwar, Machado 5.8 bwar. So a straight trade seems like fair value. Given the salary difference and 1 year of control versus 2. Assuming O's want an overpay and DD isn't scared I can see more pieces being added. Guys like Swihart, Johnson, Beeks and even Holt make sense for the O's. Maybe some relievers like like Kelly and Hembree.
Bogaerts, Swihart, Johnson, Hembree and Holt or Bogaerts, Johnson, Beeks, Hembree and Holt. Both seem like a clear overpays by a mile, but could make sense if Baltimore wants to try and win next year. If that fails you can flip Bogaerts and start the rebuild they truly need. No way I trade ERod at all for a rental and you certainly don't include him with Bogaerts.
Option two a trade built around prospects. Guys in our system or guys you can get from trading Bogaerts. All depends what trader Dave is thinking. I would hope Groome and Chavis are off limits for a rental, but who knows. I don't even really want to think about what this would look like.
You then get what if DD thought about keeping Bogaerts and still adding Machado. Moving Devers to first or Bogaerts to second. It makes little sense, but we have seen crazier things. The whole thing seems crazy though, when you think about the contract Machado is going to get. Fun thing to talk about, you understand DD interest, but it just seems crazy. Then again the Sale trade seemed crazy before it was made.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 30, 2017 9:52:34 GMT -5
Xander, Johnson, Beeks, Swihart, and Hembree maybe gets the needle moving.
The Orioles wouldn't be interested in Holt. No one is interested in Holt.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 30, 2017 13:31:18 GMT -5
Xander, Johnson, Beeks, Swihart, and Hembree maybe gets the needle moving. The Orioles wouldn't be interested in Holt. No one is interested in Holt. For one year of Machado? Neither team would be thinking anything like that at all. The Red Sox lose way too much depth that they would need throughout the season and couldn't be easily replaced and the Orioles wouldn't want the Red Sox' depth if they're trading their best player. It would be a prospect oriented trade if the Orioles aren't stupid.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 30, 2017 14:52:07 GMT -5
Xander, Johnson, Beeks, Swihart, and Hembree maybe gets the needle moving. The Orioles wouldn't be interested in Holt. No one is interested in Holt. For one year of Machado? Neither team would be thinking anything like that at all. The Red Sox lose way too much depth that they would need throughout the season and couldn't be easily replaced and the Orioles wouldn't want the Red Sox' depth if they're trading their best player. It would be a prospect oriented trade if the Orioles aren't stupid. The Orioles want two major league ready starting pitching arms. This deal does that, and gives a little bit extra to pull the trigger. Hembree and Swihart are depth that the Sox can't really use. I would presume a extension follows in the trade.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 30, 2017 14:59:08 GMT -5
For one year of Machado? Neither team would be thinking anything like that at all. The Red Sox lose way too much depth that they would need throughout the season and couldn't be easily replaced and the Orioles wouldn't want the Red Sox' depth if they're trading their best player. It would be a prospect oriented trade if the Orioles aren't stupid. The Orioles want two major league ready starting pitching arms. This deal does that, and gives a little bit extra to pull the trigger. Hembree and Swihart are depth that the Sox can't really use. I would presume a extension follows in the trade. Then they won't trade him if that's what they want. I'm sure they aren't demanding a couple of 7th and 8th starters along with bench players who are out of options and no clear spot on the roster along with a relief pitcher that is about 10th on the depth chart.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 30, 2017 16:04:03 GMT -5
The Orioles want two major league ready starting pitching arms. This deal does that, and gives a little bit extra to pull the trigger. Hembree and Swihart are depth that the Sox can't really use. I would presume a extension follows in the trade. Then they won't trade him if that's what they want. I'm sure they aren't demanding a couple of 7th and 8th starters along with bench players who are out of options and no clear spot on the roster along with a relief pitcher that is about 10th on the depth chart. All of these players would have starting roles on the Orioles though. You're talking about two back end starters, a 6th or 7th inning reliever, and a catching option, which they could use. This trade would be better than getting a comp pick. I wouldn't mind substituting Johnson or Beeks for Porcello if they wanted to add a Trumbo and/or O'Day, just to add more money and even out the value. Xander, Beeks, Porcello, Swihart, Hembree For Machado, Trumbo, O'Day That's a really good package for Machado. A mid rotation starter, a back end rotation starter, a catching option, and a reliever.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 30, 2017 20:26:45 GMT -5
Xander, Johnson, Beeks, Swihart, and Hembree maybe gets the needle moving. The Orioles wouldn't be interested in Holt. No one is interested in Holt. For one year of Machado? Neither team would be thinking anything like that at all. The Red Sox lose way too much depth that they would need throughout the season and couldn't be easily replaced and the Orioles wouldn't want the Red Sox' depth if they're trading their best player. It would be a prospect oriented trade if the Orioles aren't stupid.n/t
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 30, 2017 21:06:12 GMT -5
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 30, 2017 21:37:06 GMT -5
Thanks for posting that article. I was too lazy to post it earlier. Machado is clearly valuable, but is one year of him really worth 2 years of Xander? I don't understand where these Xander+ proposals are coming from. Why in the world would the O's want to package Machado with Trumbo or O'Day? If they're looking to dump salary it isn't with those two players. It's with Chris Davis. There's no doubt they would rather ditch Davis and his 115M owed, instead of dumping Trumbo and O'Day, who are owed ~44.5M over the next two years.
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Post by swingingbunt on Dec 30, 2017 22:14:41 GMT -5
If Machado is the guy you want to spend big for, based on his previous comments about the organization, you almost have to trade for him this year in order to give him time to change his mind. I don't really share that feeling, but I guess it makes sense.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 30, 2017 23:21:42 GMT -5
Thanks for posting that article. I was too lazy to post it earlier. Machado is clearly valuable, but is one year of him really worth 2 years of Xander? I don't understand where these Xander+ proposals are coming from. Why in the world would the O's want to package Machado with Trumbo or O'Day? If they're looking to dump salary it isn't with those two players. It's with Chris Davis. There's no doubt they would rather ditch Davis and his 115M owed, instead of dumping Trumbo and O'Day, who are owed ~44.5M over the next two years. Chris Davis is owed money for years and years. O'Day and Trumbo is owed for 2 years.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 31, 2017 6:01:08 GMT -5
Thanks for posting that article. I was too lazy to post it earlier. Machado is clearly valuable, but is one year of him really worth 2 years of Xander? I don't understand where these Xander+ proposals are coming from. Why in the world would the O's want to package Machado with Trumbo or O'Day? If they're looking to dump salary it isn't with those two players. It's with Chris Davis. There's no doubt they would rather ditch Davis and his 115M owed, instead of dumping Trumbo and O'Day, who are owed ~44.5M over the next two years. NP. Seems like a mute point now, reports seem to indicate it's prospect based, not Bogaerts. To clear salary, but I just don't see that happening. If you're going to rebuild the return is whats matters. Trumbo and that deal is bad, going to hurt the return. O'Day isn't bad, I could maybe see that. We already have a crowed bullpen though. Chris Davis has one of the worst contracts in Baseball. One year of Machado isn't enough for me to take on that contract, not even close.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 31, 2017 9:44:36 GMT -5
For one year of Machado? Neither team would be thinking anything like that at all. The Red Sox lose way too much depth that they would need throughout the season and couldn't be easily replaced and the Orioles wouldn't want the Red Sox' depth if they're trading their best player. It would be a prospect oriented trade if the Orioles aren't stupid.n/t Assuming the other team is stupid is the beginning of a stupid trade proposal.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 31, 2017 16:02:09 GMT -5
All these reports about the Sox being interested in trading for MM make me irritated. Maybe it is just a ruse to deal with the ultimate villian, Boras, but the whole idea of it is just irritating. What would make my day is JD Martinez firing Boras for being an idiot late January and signing with the Sox for 5/120. Then we could put all this MM talk to bed. I understand that Boras has a job to do but IMO he has become so arrogant in how he goes about it that he is like a F%#$ing peacock.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 31, 2017 16:52:43 GMT -5
All these reports about the Sox being interested in trading for MM make me irritated. Maybe it is just a ruse to deal with the ultimate villian, Boras, but the whole idea of it is just irritating. What would make my day is JD Martinez firing Boras for being an idiot late January and signing with the Sox for 5/120. Then we could put all this MM talk to bed. I understand that Boras has a job to do but IMO he has become so arrogant in how he goes about it that he is like a F%#$ing peacock. Kind of reminds me of Don King minus the hair. A real carnival barker.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Dec 31, 2017 22:39:47 GMT -5
It would seem to me that Baltimore is going to want Groome or JBJ if a Machado deal is actually going to happen. They are probably in big time rebuild mode and that may mean moving both Machado and Adam Jones. it's going to take a contender to even want Machado or Jones at substantial value. And DD is the kind of guy who might pull the trigger on that type deal. The Sox are contenders and DD is a guy who loves premium talent like Machado. From what little I know I think I would trade trade 6 years of value from Groome as a big part of a deal on Machado also. Even with a couple other supplementary prospects. Dombrowski just loves premium guys like Machado and he would only do it if he might think he can sign him long term and why couldn't he? The stars might align. Machado is absolute, for real talent. All this could also be positioning before we pull the trigger on Nunez. The Yankees are looking for a 3rd baseman also and Nunez and Machado would suit them nicely. Considering the circumstances, even DD might want to play defensively on this one. We need to think about what they Yankees can do as part of our planning especially now. As counter productive as that may sound, that's reality. The Yankees look like they can absolutely run away with this division if we allow them to trade for Machado and the last thing we need is him added to that team.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 1, 2018 1:53:29 GMT -5
If we go by the Fangraph article thinks a package like Martinez and Ozuna. So thats means no Groome or Chavis. That's more like Mata, Beeks, Dalbec and Cedrola or Ockimey, Shawaryn, Beeks and Perry type package.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jan 1, 2018 13:13:38 GMT -5
I could get on board with any of those 2 for MM. But I doubt that is all it would take.
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Post by larryf38 on Jan 2, 2018 10:21:10 GMT -5
Micheal Chavis and Blake Swihart, let someone else blow 200 million on JDM. We have an amazing team right now!! Maybe add some relief help
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