SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2018 Spring Training Discussion
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 22, 2018 21:30:44 GMT -5
I agree 100%. The Yankees pitching could be a real issue and I'm surprised they haven't done anything. This could be good though, might force them to trade some good prospects in a trade. Counting on Severino, Montgomery and Sabathia to repeat last year is asking a lot. Chances that happens is very low. Tanaka just seems like a guy of when, not if he needs Tommy John. Cobb would have been huge for them. I definitely agree on Sabathia and to some extent Montgomery, but I think you guys are selling Severino short. He’s tightened up his slider and he’s getting his CH located to induce swinging strikes at pitchesvout of the zone. He also averaged the highest FB velocity of any MLB starter last year at something like 97.3 mph. He’s young, too. To me he has genuine ace written all over him. He might waffle up and down a bit given his age, but basically everything he needed to improve from his minor league days (increase FB velo, better SL command, improve his CH shape and location) he’s done. That said, Tanaka seems like a prime step-back candidate given his arm/ injury issues and his struggles with consistency. I certainly prefer the Sox rotation over NY’s. The command isn't always there for Severino Telson, at least it hasn't been in the past. He seems like a 2 or a 3 generally. Last year he was a number one, but I don't think he'll always be at that level. His stuff is overpowering, but you need more than that to be a true ACE.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Mar 22, 2018 21:50:53 GMT -5
I definitely agree on Sabathia and to some extent Montgomery, but I think you guys are selling Severino short. He’s tightened up his slider and he’s getting his CH located to induce swinging strikes at pitchesvout of the zone. He also averaged the highest FB velocity of any MLB starter last year at something like 97.3 mph. He’s young, too. To me he has genuine ace written all over him. He might waffle up and down a bit given his age, but basically everything he needed to improve from his minor league days (increase FB velo, better SL command, improve his CH shape and location) he’s done. That said, Tanaka seems like a prime step-back candidate given his arm/ injury issues and his struggles with consistency. I certainly prefer the Sox rotation over NY’s. The command isn't always there for Severino Telson, at least it hasn't been in the past. He seems like a 2 or a 3 generally. Last year he was a number one, but I don't think he'll always be at that level. His stuff is overpowering, but you need more than that to be a true ACE. Oh, don’t get me wrong, I’m not convinced he’s going to pitch at #1 level (and he was certainly there last year) consistently just yet. He’s never had real control issues, but you’re absolutely right that the command is inconsistent, especially in the zone (hence his HR problems). He gives up a lot of flies in a park that’s unforgiving of RH-FB pitchers. But the stuff is there and he’s proven to be adaptable. For a guy who just put up a 5.7 fWAR year at 23, I think he’s got serious upside beyond what he’s already shown. Like I said, I think he’ll waffle a bit, and he’s probably due some regression. I’m an “ace” labeler stickler (to me, that’s a term reserved for perennial Cy candidates...the Kershaw-Sale-Kluber-Scherzer class, and excludes even guys like Strasburg). But he’s also capable of cutting that HR rate to league-average, in which case that ERA will drop and he’ll be adding innings. Basically, I think he’s a true-talent 4.5-5.5 WAR guy right now, with more to come, although I admit that some growing pains are likely if not inevitable. FWIW, I’d put Rodriguez in a class just a notch lower; I think he’s due for a extended run as a 1a/2, perhaps as early as this year. Hence, my preference for the Sox’s rotation, where they have a legit, dependable true ace 1 and a now-healthy “historical true ace” as their #2. Basically the entire Sox rotation looks to me to be pitching a spot behind their true talent level, with Pomeranz a 2 pitching as a 3, Porcello a 3 as a 4, and Rodriguez at least a 3 pitching as a 5. That’s a helluva staff right there.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Mar 23, 2018 6:15:30 GMT -5
You are pretty high on Pomeranz, Porcello and Rodriguez especially with their injuries and inconsistencies.
By the way, why’s everyone ignoring Sonny Gray?
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 23, 2018 11:11:39 GMT -5
You are pretty high on Pomeranz, Porcello and Rodriguez especially with their injuries and inconsistencies. By the way, why’s everyone ignoring Sonny Gray? Gray lost his curveball. He's not the same pitcher he was when he entered the league. He's had just as many injury problems than anyone on their staff lately too.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Mar 23, 2018 12:22:24 GMT -5
Yankees have a full lineup today. I love how Johnson pitches the ball exactly where he wants to every time.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 23, 2018 12:42:46 GMT -5
The Sox are facing the Yankees?
Beat these guys. Stomp on the throat.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 23, 2018 12:44:33 GMT -5
Yankees have a full lineup today. I love how Johnson pitches the ball exactly where he wants to every time. I think you almost have to find room for Johnson on the roster all year. He's pretty good for a guy with no velocity.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Mar 23, 2018 12:59:53 GMT -5
Yankees have a full lineup today. I love how Johnson pitches the ball exactly where he wants to every time. I think you almost have to find room for Johnson on the roster all year. He's pretty good for a guy with no velocity. He did hit 92 earlier. If they can't find room, I imagine he'd have some trade value.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 23, 2018 13:34:32 GMT -5
I think you almost have to find room for Johnson on the roster all year. He's pretty good for a guy with no velocity. He did hit 92 earlier. If they can't find room, I imagine he'd have some trade value. I hope you're wrong. He's probably one of those guys that is more valuable to your team giving quality innings over what he'll fetch in a trade.
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on Mar 23, 2018 13:55:13 GMT -5
Another Sam Travis HR! 2-0 Sox.
Strong outing for Johnson 4.2 IP 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Mar 23, 2018 14:09:12 GMT -5
Another Sam Travis HR! 2-0 Sox. Strong outing for Johnson 4.2 IP 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K It was a cheapie for sure. Probably 330 feet. Pop-fly that barely got over the wall by the pole in RF. But that's what can happen when you hit the ball in the air.
|
|
|
Post by benogliviesbrother on Mar 23, 2018 14:59:08 GMT -5
Another Sam Travis HR! 2-0 Sox. Strong outing for Johnson 4.2 IP 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K It was a cheapie for sure. Probably 330 feet. Pop-fly that barely got over the wall by the pole in RF. But that's what can happen when you hit the ball in the air. That would be an upper deck job @ Yankee Stadium.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Mar 23, 2018 16:42:07 GMT -5
You are pretty high on Pomeranz, Porcello and Rodriguez especially with their injuries and inconsistencies. By the way, why’s everyone ignoring Sonny Gray? Porcello is historically a 3. He’s had seasons where he’s been better than that, and a couple where he’s been worse. But he’s a very, very solid bet for 2 WAR. Pomeranz has pitched at 2a/3 level for two consecutive years (3 fWAR). He had the same minor injury issue last year in ST. He seems to get nicked up regularly but he’s essentially only missed 3 or 4 starts total the past two years. So Id argue that that’s not being “high” on them. That’s the reality of their most recent work. I *am* high on Rodriguez, who I think will be a solid 2 or better if he can stay healthy for a full season. He’s just about to turn 25...so he’s still very young. Gray’s most recent work has backed up. He’s had some difficulty with differentiating his two distinct CBs effectively as he did early in his career. He was never a 1, statistically. He was a solid 2 in Oakland, where he had the benefit of lots of foul territory. He IS a GB-heavy pitcher, which should help as a RH in Yankee stadium. But he overall had a HR problem last year, and it was worse post-trade. He also put up a worse ERA in NY (with mid-4 FIP/xFIP), despite an unlikely BABIP under .250. In a third of a season in NY he was worth 0.6 fWAR, and I think that unless he resurrects his distinct CBs and keeps upping his K rate, he’s far more likely to be a less-durable Porcello in NY (2-2.5 fWAR in 170-190 innings) than the Pomeranz equivalent he was in Oakland. He’s a 3 pitching as a 3 in NY. That’s not to say he isn’t capable of more, but following his first two seasons, he was one of the most overrated players in baseball.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Mar 23, 2018 16:58:57 GMT -5
For example: Pomeranz (3.0 fWAR/30 starts since becoming exclusively a SP) and Gray (career 3.0 fWAR/30 starts) have similar numbers as SP in their careers, but Gray’s had a tougher past two years and in particular a poor stretch in NY. Porcello’s been worth 2.5 fWAR/30 starts over his career. Rodriguez, 2.3, despite the injuries. So Porcello’s been a good 3 and Rodriguez a solid 3. Gray has been a 2a/3, just like Pomeranz. He’s done it a bit longer but has the more recent injury and performance issues and has yet to prove he can perform in his new ballpark, versus Pomeranz, who has. If you think Sale is a better pitcher than Severino (the projections have a 2+-WAR differential), and that Price is better than Tanaka (who is a serious injury risk himself), then the Sox have the edge 1-5.
|
|
|
Post by carmenfanzone on Mar 23, 2018 17:45:27 GMT -5
While the Soxprospects staff was at the back fields of the Twins complex today, I was at the back fields of the Red Sox complex. Today it was Bogarts getting in some AB's in both games. He only had 1 hit in 6 AB's, a very hard hit ground ball just inside the bag at third that the third baseman knocked down but couldn't make a play on.
Pomeranz started one of the games. He only through three up and downs ( again, they were not all full innings since when he got to a certain number of pitches LeVangie, who was watching from behind the backstop, called for the inning to be over. On the gun I saw, he was throwing 87-88. The first inning was K, GO, triple. The second was 3 fly outs and the third was BB, HR, and GO. I couldn't find the guy who hit the homerun in the Twins write up in the Prospect Handbook. I tried betting a reading on the same gun for the next pitcher, Kent, to see if the gun was slow, but couldn't do it - there were too many Red Sox minor leaguers around the gun for me to get too close. Given he only threw 3 up and downs and given the result, I do not see him as being ready to start a major league game today. The hitters for the Red sox in that game ( besides Bogarts) were Madera, Monge, Gregor, Jordan Betts, Scott, Rei (who caught Pomeranz), Acosta, Lovello, and Madden.
In the other game, the lineup was Espinal, Tobias, Ockiney, Witte, Hernandez Tendler, Matheny, Washington, Tovar, and Nunez. I saw Ockiney hit another double and draw a walk. Stankiewicz was the starter in this game and seemed to get hit around a little (in the little I saw as I was trying to watch Pomeranz).
While the games were going on I notice some other Red Sox players taking batting practice from a machine on another field. One player seemed to be driving the ball harder and deeper than the others. His name was Diaz and for a minute I thought I was watching Danny Diaz, the # 16 prospect on this site. But this kid was not big enough and was hitting from the left hand side. The only player I found meeting that description is Johnathan Diaz, a left hand hitting catcher. I know it was only one batting practice and not even from live pitching, but I liked the way he swung the bat. Probably won't ever hear of him again, but you never know.
I hope Rodriguez is ready because Wright is suspended (and from what I have seen not ready) and Pomeranz didn't look ready today to me.
|
|
|
Post by soxcentral on Mar 23, 2018 18:48:41 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 23, 2018 19:26:15 GMT -5
It'll be game 5 of the season. Cora has basically already announced it.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Mar 23, 2018 21:42:53 GMT -5
It'll be game 5 of the season. Cora has basically already announced it. If he’s really working low-90s, that’s essentially average FB velo for a LHSP. He’s got four average pitches, and pretty good command of them. I think his CB flashes Plus, too. It’s nice to see him gain back some of that velo after being 87-88 last year. He could be a nice addition to this team: a reliable 6th starter who could be in the rotation at 4/5 for a team less stacked with SP. Be nice to get quality innings from a depth option instead of someone coming up and struggling through 4 for several starts. Here’s hoping for some success for a likable guy who’s had a pretty rough go of it in his career so far, what with the line drive to his face, the carjacking, and the anxiety issues.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Mar 23, 2018 21:44:17 GMT -5
While the Soxprospects staff was at the back fields of the Twins complex today, I was at the back fields of the Red Sox complex. Today it was Bogarts getting in some AB's in both games. He only had 1 hit in 6 AB's, a very hard hit ground ball just inside the bag at third that the third baseman knocked down but couldn't make a play on. Pomeranz started one of the games. He only through three up and downs ( again, they were not all full innings since when he got to a certain number of pitches LeVangie, who was watching from behind the backstop, called for the inning to be over. On the gun I saw, he was throwing 87-88. The first inning was K, GO, triple. The second was 3 fly outs and the third was BB, HR, and GO. I couldn't find the guy who hit the homerun in the Twins write up in the Prospect Handbook. I tried betting a reading on the same gun for the next pitcher, Kent, to see if the gun was slow, but couldn't do it - there were too many Red Sox minor leaguers around the gun for me to get too close. Given he only threw 3 up and downs and given the result, I do not see him as being ready to start a major league game today. The hitters for the Red sox in that game ( besides Bogarts) were Madera, Monge, Gregor, Jordan Betts, Scott, Rei (who caught Pomeranz), Acosta, Lovello, and Madden. In the other game, the lineup was Espinal, Tobias, Ockiney, Witte, Hernandez Tendler, Matheny, Washington, Tovar, and Nunez. I saw Ockiney hit another double and draw a walk. Stankiewicz was the starter in this game and seemed to get hit around a little (in the little I saw as I was trying to watch Pomeranz). While the games were going on I notice some other Red Sox players taking batting practice from a machine on another field. One player seemed to be driving the ball harder and deeper than the others. His name was Diaz and for a minute I thought I was watching Danny Diaz, the # 16 prospect on this site. But this kid was not big enough and was hitting from the left hand side. The only player I found meeting that description is Johnathan Diaz, a left hand hitting catcher. I know it was only one batting practice and not even from live pitching, but I liked the way he swung the bat. Probably won't ever hear of him again, but you never know. I hope Rodriguez is ready because Wright is suspended (and from what I have seen not ready) and Pomeranz didn't look ready today to me. Thanks for these updates. I love ‘em.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Mar 24, 2018 7:07:04 GMT -5
For example: Pomeranz (3.0 fWAR/30 starts since becoming exclusively a SP) and Gray (career 3.0 fWAR/30 starts) have similar numbers as SP in their careers, but Gray’s had a tougher past two years and in particular a poor stretch in NY. Porcello’s been worth 2.5 fWAR/30 starts over his career. Rodriguez, 2.3, despite the injuries. So Porcello’s been a good 3 and Rodriguez a solid 3. Gray has been a 2a/3, just like Pomeranz. He’s done it a bit longer but has the more recent injury and performance issues and has yet to prove he can perform in his new ballpark, versus Pomeranz, who has. If you think Sale is a better pitcher than Severino (the projections have a 2+-WAR differential), and that Price is better than Tanaka (who is a serious injury risk himself), then the Sox have the edge 1-5. I wasn’t suggesting, I don’t like the Sox starters better than the Yankees. I like them better without a doubt. I would not be surprised if people were talking about them being the best starting staff in baseball this year. HOWEVER, that’s asking a lot to go right. Granted, besides Erod, it’s all stuff that’s happened in the past but besides Sale it’s not stuff that happens all the time or recently so asking it to happen all together seems optimistic. Price (injury), Porcello (performance), Pomeranz (health)... I’m optimistic with Price this year and he’s the key. They need him to be the guy they signed, which is a Cy Young candidate or guy on the peripheral of that discussion. My fantasy teams needs it too since Mad Bum is hurt again :-(
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Mar 24, 2018 9:35:42 GMT -5
Vazquez extended for 3 years with a team option for 4th year. No terms yet.
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on Mar 24, 2018 9:51:10 GMT -5
Vazquez extended for 3 years with a team option for 4th year. No terms yet. Source? Not seeing that in the twitterverse right now Nevermind - see it now
|
|
|
Post by artfuldodger on Mar 24, 2018 9:58:56 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by swingingbunt on Mar 24, 2018 10:36:35 GMT -5
It's not the extension we need right now, but it's the one we deserve.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 24, 2018 11:40:36 GMT -5
The command isn't always there for Severino Telson, at least it hasn't been in the past. He seems like a 2 or a 3 generally. Last year he was a number one, but I don't think he'll always be at that level. His stuff is overpowering, but you need more than that to be a true ACE. Oh, don’t get me wrong, I’m not convinced he’s going to pitch at #1 level (and he was certainly there last year) consistently just yet. He’s never had real control issues, but you’re absolutely right that the command is inconsistent, especially in the zone (hence his HR problems). He gives up a lot of flies in a park that’s unforgiving of RH-FB pitchers. But the stuff is there and he’s proven to be adaptable. For a guy who just put up a 5.7 fWAR year at 23, I think he’s got serious upside beyond what he’s already shown. Like I said, I think he’ll waffle a bit, and he’s probably due some regression. I’m an “ace” labeler stickler (to me, that’s a term reserved for perennial Cy candidates...the Kershaw-Sale-Kluber-Scherzer class, and excludes even guys like Strasburg). But he’s also capable of cutting that HR rate to league-average, in which case that ERA will drop and he’ll be adding innings. Basically, I think he’s a true-talent 4.5-5.5 WAR guy right now, with more to come, although I admit that some growing pains are likely if not inevitable. FWIW, I’d put Rodriguez in a class just a notch lower; I think he’s due for a extended run as a 1a/2, perhaps as early as this year. Hence, my preference for the Sox’s rotation, where they have a legit, dependable true ace 1 and a now-healthy “historical true ace” as their #2. Basically the entire Sox rotation looks to me to be pitching a spot behind their true talent level, with Pomeranz a 2 pitching as a 3, Porcello a 3 as a 4, and Rodriguez at least a 3 pitching as a 5. That’s a helluva staff right there. I basically think you can see some regression from him. He stuff is filthy, but it's been hit hard before. This isn't I think he'll suck, just I wouldn't be surprised to see his numbers go down though. You see that a lot from pitchers his age. Add that to the other pitchers and it could be a disaster. More likely a weak spot, unless one of there prospects is ready and can pitch well.
|
|
|