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2018 Spring Training Discussion
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 28, 2018 18:21:30 GMT -5
What? From his recall on July 15 to August 20 he put up a 20.1 13 3 2 4 16 line and looked like a sure thing to be the 7th or even 8th inning guy in the post-season. 0.89 ERA, 2.81 FIP with a .226 BABIP largely driven by a .167 Hard rate and .132 LD rate. So I guess you're right, because that's not very good, it's sensational. And it's not because he was a guy who could never throw strikes and had a brief spell of doing so. Average and max velocity: 93.7, 96.2 -> 7/15 to 8/3 93.0, 94.8 -> 8/4 to 8/20. Deep metrics worse (but still good), offset by BABIP dropping further. 92.3, 94.6 -> 8/21 to 9/14. 4.82 ERA, 5.73 FIP 91.9, 94.4 -> 9/15 to 10/1. 9.64 ERA, 8.51 FIP I bet he lost movement (on all his pitches), too. He also had a 3.92 xFIP from 7/15 to 8/20 due to a LOB% of 95.9%, and a HR/FB rate of 5%. That is literally the same xFIP as his career. And from 8/21 through the end of the season, his xFIP was insignificantly different at 4.05 but had a LOB% of 62.5% and a HR/FB rate of 31.3%. So did anything significantly change? Or is he just another replacement level relief pitcher who had wildly different results at different points of the season? And why is his velocity falling that much in one season? It's almost ironic that his name is Workman. xFIP (and SIERA) are not statistics that measure a pitcher's quality. They are great ways of translating strikeout rate, walk rate, and GB% into a single number that tells you how good a pitcher is, if he is average at allowing or limiting hard contact. There was never a good reason to believe that that skill was small enough to ignore. It's real, and it can be significant. If you look just at xFIP-, Curt Schilling is much better than David Price, and Price is a bit better than Gred Maddux. But Maddux had a hard-contact-limiting skill, Price was average, and Schilling was subpar. I cited Workman's Hard% and LD% from his great streak to demonstrate that he had a real skill at limiting hard contact there. What caused the velocity drop is a disturbing mystery. But it's not a coincidence that he went from guys not being able to square up the ball against him, to getting hammered. Which you saw if you watched the games. Nor is it unusual for a guy who experiences a real change in hardness allowed to have little or no change in K rate relative to BB rate and hence xFIP. The main thing velocity is good for is getting away with mistakes in the strike zone. Pitches thrown to a hitter's established cold spot fare no differently whether they're thrown 88 or 98. But there's a huge difference in results if they're thrown to a hot zone. A small increase in mistake-making (not snapping off and hence hanging a breaking ball) coupled with a small drop in velocity can have a huge impact on hardness allowed while barely changing K and BB rates.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 28, 2018 18:42:54 GMT -5
Disagree with the underlying premises, Eric, that (a) Johnson has four average pitches right now, (b) that he has average velo, and (c) that average velo plus 4 average pitches plus solid-average command = a #3/4 borderline starter. Just taking the velo, because that's the easy part, his average FB velocity last year was around 88 mph. Average fastball speed in MLB right now is something like 92. A quick Google through spring training stories on him has him sitting like 87-89, touching the low 90s on occasion. Even giving a LHP a 1 mph break, he's well below average velocity-wise. That alone gives him a below-average fastball. I don't have my prospect handbook on me, but Speier's report on him from last year has his pitches down across the board. He maybe has 1 or 2 average pitches right now. And on the general point, I'd argue that a pitcher with average velo and four average pitches better have at least plus if not better command to survive in the majors. Personally, I think his upside at this point is that of a #5 on a second division team if the stuff doesn't tick back up to where it once was 3 or so years ago. When I saw him in Portland, he sat 90-92, touching 95 when he needed it. On fastball alone, he's not going to survive sitting 87-89. a) and b) came from, respectively, the scouting report here and posts here! Was it telson who was saying his velo was back to where it used to be? I'm really curious as to how he shut out the Yankees' starting lineup for 4+ innings with the stuff you describe. As far as c), by definition, if all your components are average, you'll be average. A pitcher with 50 grades across the board should be an MLB average pitcher. If that's not true, the whole system makes no sense. Now, those numbers and those terms are supposed to be relative to major leaguers, and maybe scouts tend to inflate them because, after all, they are seeing guys who aren't major leaguers. In which case the system makes some sense, but "average" means the average of some undefined pool of pitchers who include a lot of guys who aren't MLB caliber. Finally, I wonder if your overall perspective has been skewed by how good a rotation we've assembled. A borderline #3 in the AL these days is a guy who can put up a 4.50 ERA. From what I've seen from Johnson in the past and what I've heard about him this spring, that seems to be the ballpark.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 28, 2018 22:22:37 GMT -5
It would make sense if he was coming back from Tommy John surgery last year and slowly working back and raising his velocity along the way. What is alarming is that his velocity has been dropping since September of last year and is *worse* to start this year. If he's in the 80's now, then that would be his worst mark since he's been back from Tommy John surgery. You can blame it on fatigue. I can blame it on a injury. Neither of them are good signs for Workman. He didn't even make the team when he had a clear spot for him on the roster. I don't personally see Workman making it past 2019 spring training with the Red Sox at the latest (when he's out of options). He was in the 80's last year in spring training. Did you look at that chart? He was throwing pitches in the 80's in his first two call ups but was averaging over 90 combined in early May and early june.. So they had him take it slow and after a few months he was hitting 97 MPH again. He was coming off of Tommy John surgery last year in spring training. What's his excuse this year? He isn't just ramping up slowly after a injury last year. He wasn't injured last year. He should be strong and ready to go this spring. Even when Sale is dialing it back he still hits 97 mph. When Workman "dials it back," it's in the high 80's for some reason. Sorry, don't buy it. I'm not going to argue past this post about it either.
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 28, 2018 23:30:29 GMT -5
Even when Sale is dialing it back he still hits 97 mph. When Workman "dials it back," it's in the high 80's for some reason. Speaking as someone who thinks Workman being gassed after 70 innings in 2017 after having TJ Surgery in June 2015 is a serious durability issue, get out of here with this. Chris Sale is not a realistic standard and you damn well know that. This is bush league comments section-level stuff. Just total nonsense. I seriously can't believe you thought "well if Chris Sale can do it, why can't Brandon Workman" was actually making a point. Ugh.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 28, 2018 23:49:04 GMT -5
Can anyone but Pedro confirm that Workman is only in the 80's this spring training? Just went back and read the thread and Pedro started bashing his fastball early in spring training when he admitted NESN wasn't even giving out radar readings. Then he was in the 80's in Sept, but he wasn't.
Did anyone get to see him at spring training live? Any info would be great.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 28, 2018 23:55:55 GMT -5
Even when Sale is dialing it back he still hits 97 mph. When Workman "dials it back," it's in the high 80's for some reason. Speaking as someone who thinks Workman being gassed after 70 innings in 2017 after having TJ Surgery in June 2015 is a serious durability issue, get out of here with this. Chris Sale is not a realistic standard and you damn well know that. This is bush league comments section-level stuff. Just total nonsense. I seriously can't believe you thought "well if Chris Sale can do it, why can't Brandon Workman" was actually making a point. Ugh. It wasn't bush league. My basic point is guys who have velocity can dial it back and still top out hard. I was using Chris Sale as a example. I could have used Hembree, Barnes, anyone else. Heck, I could have used Brian Johnson who topped out at 92 or 93 this spring. For some reason when Workman dials it back, he can't even hit 90. He's probably hurt or something.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 29, 2018 0:06:12 GMT -5
Saw reports that in a couple of his games this spring Workman was throwing in the high 80s. Not sure if that that was some random gun or trackman on the video board, but will be interesting to see how he throws early. Someone with the Sox confirmed Hernandez is the move to me a little bit ago.
Umass, this wasn't my post.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Mar 29, 2018 3:54:36 GMT -5
So? Something in particular happening today?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 29, 2018 9:05:31 GMT -5
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