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2018 Spring Training Discussion
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 28, 2018 11:32:36 GMT -5
Yeah, I think it's a mistake to shrug this aside. Workman wasn't worked (no pun intended) particularly hard. If he started to wear down, that's not to be treated as just some thing that happened. There have to be very serious durability concerns here. And... it shouldn't have still been affecting him seven months later, but here we are, after another spring training, waiting for Brandon Workman to show some consistency. Brandon Workman is 29, they need a short term fix, and he and was far enough behind Marcus Walden that they made it a point to add Marcus Walden to the 40-man roster to get him up. Maybe I'm underselling Walden here, but he's not exactly some young gun whose profile seems to indicate he's a long-term solution (the way Bobby Poyner's may be, for example). He's a decent organizational arm who is the best fit for the last spot on the roster. In a general sense I get it. He wasn't overused for a normal reliever. I'm just looking at a guy that had played in 10 games and pitched 20 innings since Tommy John surgery, then pitchers in 51 games and 68.2 innings the next year. Add up all the wear and tear from warming up for all those games, he had a massive increase in usage in his first full year back from major surgery. It doesn't seem crazy that a player like that would wear down. At the same time he was very good before Sept and he regained all his velocity. If you like Walden, why not keep him? Adds depth, you didn't lose Workman. We'll see I've always liked Workman more than most of you. I definitely appreciate Workman. I'm a fan for life after his 2013 post-season. Ok. I have to ask - I know it's hard to try to get into the mind of John Farrell, but can anybody here at all answer this question? In the clinching Game 6 of the World Series, after everybody at Fenway has chanted, "Lack-key, Lack-key", and he tipped his cap as he left with the bases loaded and two outs and the Sox up 6-1, Junichi Tazawa comes in and gets the clutchest guy on the team, Allen Craig (who I'm convinced became a pumpkin from that AB on - he had been hitting well against the Sox in the Series despite his injury) hits a hard grounder to Napoli who keeps it in front of him and flips it to Junichi covering 1b for the biggest out of the game. Junichi threw all of 2 pitches! So why, with only 2 pitches under his belt, did Farrell pull Tazawa and put in rookie Brandon Workman? Oh, it did work swimmingly. Workman got Yadier Molina on a shallow fly out to Victorino in RF and got Adams to ground out to Pedroia and retired Freese on a slow roller to Bogaerts who was playing 3b during the 2013 post-season. If Workman got in trouble they did have unhittable Koji to bail him out and they had a reasonably large lead of 5 runs, but I never understood why Farrell pulled Tazawa that quickly instead of letting him pitch the 8th. The only thing I can figure is that perhaps Tazawa was gassed from overuse during the season and he was treated as a ROOGY at other times during the post-season - he was the guy designated to face Miguel Cabrera for example. Watching the way Craig Breslow pitched that Series, it was quite apparent he was gassed. He was never the same pitcher again after the ALCS ended. But that's all I got. Does anybody else have any idea why Farrell would pull Tazawa from the game so quickly when the Series is only 3 outs away from getting to Koji? It worked well, but after 5 years, I have absolutely very little clue on this. Anybody else here have a good guess?
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 28, 2018 12:36:23 GMT -5
In a general sense I get it. He wasn't overused for a normal reliever. I'm just looking at a guy that had played in 10 games and pitched 20 innings since Tommy John surgery, then pitchers in 51 games and 68.2 innings the next year. Add up all the wear and tear from warming up for all those games, he had a massive increase in usage in his first full year back from major surgery. It doesn't seem crazy that a player like that would wear down. At the same time he was very good before Sept and he regained all his velocity. If you like Walden, why not keep him? Adds depth, you didn't lose Workman. We'll see I've always liked Workman more than most of you. I definitely appreciate Workman. I'm a fan for life after his 2013 post-season. Ok. I have to ask - I know it's hard to try to get into the mind of John Farrell, but can anybody here at all answer this question? In the clinching Game 6 of the World Series, after everybody at Fenway has chanted, "Lack-key, Lack-key", and he tipped his cap as he left with the bases loaded and two outs and the Sox up 6-1, Junichi Tazawa comes in and gets the clutchest guy on the team, Allen Craig (who I'm convinced became a pumpkin from that AB on - he had been hitting well against the Sox in the Series despite his injury) hits a hard grounder to Napoli who keeps it in front of him and flips it to Junichi covering 1b for the biggest out of the game. Junichi threw all of 2 pitches! So why, with only 2 pitches under his belt, did Farrell pull Tazawa and put in rookie Brandon Workman? Oh, it did work swimmingly. Workman got Yadier Molina on a shallow fly out to Victorino in RF and got Adams to ground out to Pedroia and retired Freese on a slow roller to Bogaerts who was playing 3b during the 2013 post-season. If Workman got in trouble they did have unhittable Koji to bail him out and they had a reasonably large lead of 5 runs, but I never understood why Farrell pulled Tazawa that quickly instead of letting him pitch the 8th. The only thing I can figure is that perhaps Tazawa was gassed from overuse during the season and he was treated as a ROOGY at other times during the post-season - he was the guy designated to face Miguel Cabrera for example. Watching the way Craig Breslow pitched that Series, it was quite apparent he was gassed. He was never the same pitcher again after the ALCS ended. But that's all I got. Does anybody else have any idea why Farrell would pull Tazawa from the game so quickly when the Series is only 3 outs away from getting to Koji? It worked well, but after 5 years, I have absolutely very little clue on this. Anybody else here have a good guess?He wasn't competent as a strategist? Not to be snarky, but that's kind of the obvious answer here.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 28, 2018 12:51:52 GMT -5
I definitely appreciate Workman. I'm a fan for life after his 2013 post-season. Ok. I have to ask - I know it's hard to try to get into the mind of John Farrell, but can anybody here at all answer this question? In the clinching Game 6 of the World Series, after everybody at Fenway has chanted, "Lack-key, Lack-key", and he tipped his cap as he left with the bases loaded and two outs and the Sox up 6-1, Junichi Tazawa comes in and gets the clutchest guy on the team, Allen Craig (who I'm convinced became a pumpkin from that AB on - he had been hitting well against the Sox in the Series despite his injury) hits a hard grounder to Napoli who keeps it in front of him and flips it to Junichi covering 1b for the biggest out of the game. Junichi threw all of 2 pitches! So why, with only 2 pitches under his belt, did Farrell pull Tazawa and put in rookie Brandon Workman? Oh, it did work swimmingly. Workman got Yadier Molina on a shallow fly out to Victorino in RF and got Adams to ground out to Pedroia and retired Freese on a slow roller to Bogaerts who was playing 3b during the 2013 post-season. If Workman got in trouble they did have unhittable Koji to bail him out and they had a reasonably large lead of 5 runs, but I never understood why Farrell pulled Tazawa that quickly instead of letting him pitch the 8th. The only thing I can figure is that perhaps Tazawa was gassed from overuse during the season and he was treated as a ROOGY at other times during the post-season - he was the guy designated to face Miguel Cabrera for example. Watching the way Craig Breslow pitched that Series, it was quite apparent he was gassed. He was never the same pitcher again after the ALCS ended. But that's all I got. Does anybody else have any idea why Farrell would pull Tazawa from the game so quickly when the Series is only 3 outs away from getting to Koji? It worked well, but after 5 years, I have absolutely very little clue on this. Anybody else here have a good guess?He wasn't competent as a strategist? Not to be snarky, but that's kind of the obvious answer here. I guess I thought there was some sort of sensible logic or that there had to be. I mean even good managers do things that I can't figure out - for example Tito putting in Pedro to start the 7th inning against the Yankees in Game 7 of ALCS 2004. At least there was an explanation, which still made little sense to me, that he wanted Pedro to start the inning figuring that if he got in trouble Arroyo would put out the fire, which makes me wonder why Arroyo wasn't given the 7th inning in the first place if Lowe was gassed (which apparently he was). But Pedro got knocked around so we got a reason. Workman excelled so nobody ever asked that question. I'd like to think there's a reason, something better than our manager was an idiot. At least I had a pretty good idea why Buckner was still around in the 10th inning of Game 6, 1986 or why Grady Little refused to take out Pedro and both Little and McNamara were bigger bozos than Farrell was. To be fair to Farrell, while I didn't agree with his move benching Nava for Gomes during that post-season, his change from Salty to Ross and from WMB to Bogaerts did work out. You don't normally see a manager replace 1/3 of his regular players with bench guys during the post-season. As it was Gomes had the biggest hit of the World Series and Ross might have had the 2nd biggest hit of the Series.
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 28, 2018 13:08:02 GMT -5
I mean, we're talking about a manager who, three games earlier, let Workman bat in a World Series game, with Uehara ready to go.
If all of his numbskull moves in the 2013 series hadn't accidentally worked there's no way he makes it to 2016. Which - I'm glad they worked! I'll trade those two seasons of frustration for a World Series, sure. But he was the worst manager to win the World Series since Bob Brenly and I think it's okay for us to come to terms with that now.
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Post by Don Caballero on Mar 28, 2018 13:19:49 GMT -5
I mean, we're talking about a manager who, three games earlier, let Workman bat in a World Series game, with Uehara ready to go. If all of his numbskull moves in the 2013 series hadn't accidentally worked there's no way he makes it to 2016. Which - I'm glad they worked! I'll trade those two seasons of frustration for a World Series, sure. But he was the worst manager to win the World Series since Bob Brenly and I think it's okay for us to come to terms with that now.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 28, 2018 13:35:55 GMT -5
I mean, we're talking about a manager who, three games earlier, let Workman bat in a World Series game, with Uehara ready to go. If all of his numbskull moves in the 2013 series hadn't accidentally worked there's no way he makes it to 2016. Which - I'm glad they worked! I'll trade those two seasons of frustration for a World Series, sure. But he was the worst manager to win the World Series since Bob Brenly and I think it's okay for us to come to terms with that now. I guess. Maybe my standards are just so much lower because I've endured Don Zimmer, John McNamara, Butch Hobson, Jimy ("Manager's Decision") Williams, Joe Kerrigan, Grady Little, and Bobby Valentine, and in comparison John Farrell looks like (or at least sounds like) a Harvard graduate. Man I hope Alex Cora doesn't wind up belonging in the above grouping. But to be among the better Red Sox managers in my Red Sox experience he does have a fairly low bar to clear. I did like Ralph Houk and Joe Morgan, and I guess I was alright with Kevin Kennedy (I must have been the one?). I thought Tito was head and shoulders above the rest of them.
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 28, 2018 13:44:02 GMT -5
Yeah, I've been watching for 30 years and Francona and Morgan are the only ones I can say for sure are better than Farrell (though I'd have Williams higher as well).
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Post by sittingstill on Mar 28, 2018 13:49:06 GMT -5
The only thing I can figure is that perhaps Tazawa was gassed from overuse during the season and he was treated as a ROOGY at other times during the post-season - he was the guy designated to face Miguel Cabrera for example. Watching the way Craig Breslow pitched that Series, it was quite apparent he was gassed. He was never the same pitcher again after the ALCS ended. But that's all I got. Does anybody else have any idea why Farrell would pull Tazawa from the game so quickly when the Series is only 3 outs away from getting to Koji? My own sense is definitely that Tazawa was gassed. First full season in the majors. Second to Koji in the regular season in both games (71 to Koji's 73) and IP (68.1 to Koji's 74.1). His longer outings were pretty spread out in the early season; he threw 20+ pitches three times in April and in May and twice in June, but 5 times in July (peaking at 31) and 4 in August before dropping to only once in September (and only 20 at that). In the World Series he threw 24 pitches 10/26 and then came back to pitch again 10/27 (only two pitches but obviously he still had to warm up). I think he was toast. With a 5 run cushion I think it made sense to let him get his guy and then give Workman the clean inning.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 28, 2018 14:51:54 GMT -5
Yeah, I've been watching for 30 years and Francona and Morgan are the only ones I can say for sure are better than Farrell (though I'd have Williams higher as well). I was always on the fence with Jimy Williams. His Jimywocky drove me nuts. His "Manager's Decision" stuff used to drive me nuts, almost as nuts as Belichick's refusal to say why Butler rode the bench in SB52. He also talked like a country bumpkin, the whole "if a frog had wings he wouldn't bump his booty" stuff. It was kind of amazing that the team was basically 2 superstars and a bunch of guys (well it was 3 superstars in 1998 when they had Mo Vaughn) was able to overachieve the way they did in 1998 and 1999 and even in 2001 until he was fired.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 28, 2018 14:53:12 GMT -5
I definitely appreciate Workman. I'm a fan for life after his 2013 post-season. And I think this is where the struggle with Workman comes from. He just was never a very good pitcher but we've given him 5 years to get back to that point. Just seems like a waste of time, to be honest. There are a ton of relief pitchers in front of him at this point including Walden, Maddox, and Poyner and is probably about to be passed by Buttrey, Cuevas, Elias, Jerez and Shepherd. This is a lot of discussion for a mediocre replacement level pitcher who has trouble staying over 90 mph for an entire season. If we didn't have 2013 to remember, would anyone be talking about him? He probably belongs in the discussion of who is up next to DFA if a 40 man spot is needed. He and Scott.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 28, 2018 15:40:16 GMT -5
I mean, we're talking about a manager who, three games earlier, let Workman bat in a World Series game, with Uehara ready to go. If all of his numbskull moves in the 2013 series hadn't accidentally worked there's no way he makes it to 2016. Which - I'm glad they worked! I'll trade those two seasons of frustration for a World Series, sure. But he was the worst manager to win the World Series since Bob Brenly and I think it's okay for us to come to terms with that now. I guess. Maybe my standards are just so much lower because I've endured Don Zimmer, John McNamara, Butch Hobson, Jimy ("Manager's Decision") Williams, Joe Kerrigan, Grady Little, and Bobby Valentine, and in comparison John Farrell looks like (or at least sounds like) a Harvard graduate. Man I hope Alex Cora doesn't wind up belonging in the above grouping. But to be among the better Red Sox managers in my Red Sox experience he does have a fairly low bar to clear. I did like Ralph Houk and Joe Morgan, and I guess I was alright with Kevin Kennedy (I must have been the one?). I thought Tito was head and shoulders above the rest of them. This is precisely my take on all those managers, except to note that Jimy was tremendous with pitching and defense, and somehow managed to more than offset it with his handling of the offense at every level. He would have picked Marrero over Xander as a starting SS, for instance. And also note that Zimmer was a solid strategist and tactician whose only ordinary flaw was playing his starters till they dropped, and hence was a decent manager ... Except for the part where he refused to play guys he didn't like personally, regardless of their talent, and had them traded for bags of donuts. And then lied about it all in his autobiography and refused to take any responsibility for 1978, when every other manager who ever lived would have won with that team (and I'm not just talking about Bobby Prowl starting over Bill Lee and Garry Hancock being on the bench instead of Bernie Carbo, or even about pitching Jim Wright when his arm was falling off ... they would have still won the division by 3 games despite all of that if they hadn't dumped Fergie Jenkins and Reggie Cleveland in favor of the (more expensive) Mike Torrez and Allen Ripley). Going back further, you have the inept Darrell Johnson ("he's been falling out of trees and landing on his feet all season" -- Bill Lee re 1975), the unimaginably inept Eddie Kasko (great farm director, though), and great Dick Williams. (I remember Billy Herman, Johnny Pesky, and Mike Higgins, but not well enough to judge them.) Wow -- Cora will be my 19th manager (excluding the interim guys, Popowski and Runnels). I have a feeling it'll be a while before I see #20.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 28, 2018 16:07:10 GMT -5
I definitely appreciate Workman. I'm a fan for life after his 2013 post-season. And I think this is where the struggle with Workman comes from. He just was never a very good pitcher but we've given him 5 years to get back to that point. Just seems like a waste of time, to be honest. There are a ton of relief pitchers in front of him at this point including Walden, Maddox, and Poyner and is probably about to be passed by Buttrey, Cuevas, Elias, Jerez and Shepherd. This is a lot of discussion for a mediocre replacement level pitcher who has trouble staying over 90 mph for an entire season. If we didn't have 2013 to remember, would anyone be talking about him? He probably belongs in the discussion of who is up next to DFA if a 40 man spot is needed. He and Scott. What? From his recall on July 15 to August 20 he put up a 20.1 13 3 2 4 16 line and looked like a sure thing to be the 7th or even 8th inning guy in the post-season. 0.89 ERA, 2.81 FIP with a .226 BABIP largely driven by a .167 Hard rate and .132 LD rate. So I guess you're right, because that's not very good, it's sensational. And it's not because he was a guy who could never throw strikes and had a brief spell of doing so. Average and max velocity: 93.7, 96.2 -> 7/15 to 8/3 93.0, 94.8 -> 8/4 to 8/20. Deep metrics worse (but still good), offset by BABIP dropping further. 92.3, 94.6 -> 8/21 to 9/14. 4.82 ERA, 5.73 FIP 91.9, 94.4 -> 9/15 to 10/1. 9.64 ERA, 8.51 FIP I bet he lost movement (on all his pitches), too.
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Post by daltonjones on Mar 28, 2018 16:07:36 GMT -5
Dick Williams remains my model manager, though I suppose he was less popular in the clubhouse than Bobby V.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 28, 2018 16:10:43 GMT -5
[...]And also note that Zimmer was a solid strategist and tactician whose only ordinary flaw was playing his starters till they dropped, and hence was a decent manager ... Except for the part where he refused to play guys he didn't like personally, regardless of their talent, and had them traded for bags of donuts. And then lied about it all in his autobiography and refused to take any responsibility for 1978, when every other manager who ever lived would have won with that team (and I'm not just talking about Bobby Prowl starting over Bill Lee and Garry Hancock being on the bench instead of Bernie Carbo, or even about pitching Jim Wright when his arm was falling off ... they would have still won the division by 3 games despite all of that if they hadn't dumped Fergie Jenkins and Reggie Cleveland in favor of the (more expensive) Mike Torrez and Allen Ripley). [...] I hope this doesn't break any rules, but I was thinking about Zimmer when reading a news story about a political figure who is having a hard time getting a good legal team to help him fight a formidable foe; I thought of Goose Gossage seeing Zimmer friend Bob Bailey come out to pinch hit with his .191 average and Gossage looking up and saying "thank you God!"
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 28, 2018 16:23:23 GMT -5
I definitely appreciate Workman. I'm a fan for life after his 2013 post-season. And I think this is where the struggle with Workman comes from. He just was never a very good pitcher but we've given him 5 years to get back to that point. Just seems like a waste of time, to be honest. There are a ton of relief pitchers in front of him at this point including Walden, Maddox, and Poyner and is probably about to be passed by Buttrey, Cuevas, Elias, Jerez and Shepherd. This is a lot of discussion for a mediocre replacement level pitcher who has trouble staying over 90 mph for an entire season. If we didn't have 2013 to remember, would anyone be talking about him? He probably belongs in the discussion of who is up next to DFA if a 40 man spot is needed. He and Scott. I agree with your point - up to a point. Yes, he gets more rope because of post-season 2013, but it's more than that. As Eric Van points out, he was pitching quite well for a prolonged stretch last season. He was definitely in my circle of trust relievers category last year until he totally lost it Sept. I never would have thought he would pitch bad enough to lose his post-season spot, but he did. I doubt that he gets passed by Cuevas, Jerez, Elias, or Shepherd. Those guys have never done anything for the Sox and I tend to doubt that they will. Workman had two months last season that I doubt those other guys do. It's also quite obvious his mediocrity post-2014 was about his needing TJ surgery, not a lack of ability or talent to be a solid middle relief arm.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Mar 28, 2018 16:27:17 GMT -5
Your steady backing of John Farrell is the one thing I admire about you.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 28, 2018 16:30:42 GMT -5
And I think this is where the struggle with Workman comes from. He just was never a very good pitcher but we've given him 5 years to get back to that point. Just seems like a waste of time, to be honest. There are a ton of relief pitchers in front of him at this point including Walden, Maddox, and Poyner and is probably about to be passed by Buttrey, Cuevas, Elias, Jerez and Shepherd. This is a lot of discussion for a mediocre replacement level pitcher who has trouble staying over 90 mph for an entire season. If we didn't have 2013 to remember, would anyone be talking about him? He probably belongs in the discussion of who is up next to DFA if a 40 man spot is needed. He and Scott. What? From his recall on July 15 to August 20 he put up a 20.1 13 3 2 4 16 line and looked like a sure thing to be the 7th or even 8th inning guy in the post-season. 0.89 ERA, 2.81 FIP with a .226 BABIP largely driven by a .167 Hard rate and .132 LD rate. So I guess you're right, because that's not very good, it's sensational. And it's not because he was a guy who could never throw strikes and had a brief spell of doing so. Average and max velocity: 93.7, 96.2 -> 7/15 to 8/3 93.0, 94.8 -> 8/4 to 8/20. Deep metrics worse (but still good), offset by BABIP dropping further. 92.3, 94.6 -> 8/21 to 9/14. 4.82 ERA, 5.73 FIP 91.9, 94.4 -> 9/15 to 10/1. 9.64 ERA, 8.51 FIP I bet he lost movement (on all his pitches), too. He also had a 3.92 xFIP from 7/15 to 8/20 due to a LOB% of 95.9%, and a HR/FB rate of 5%. That is literally the same xFIP as his career. And from 8/21 through the end of the season, his xFIP was insignificantly different at 4.05 but had a LOB% of 62.5% and a HR/FB rate of 31.3%. So did anything significantly change? Or is he just another replacement level relief pitcher who had wildly different results at different points of the season? And why is his velocity falling that much in one season? It's almost ironic that his name is Workman.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 28, 2018 16:34:23 GMT -5
And I think this is where the struggle with Workman comes from. He just was never a very good pitcher but we've given him 5 years to get back to that point. Just seems like a waste of time, to be honest. There are a ton of relief pitchers in front of him at this point including Walden, Maddox, and Poyner and is probably about to be passed by Buttrey, Cuevas, Elias, Jerez and Shepherd. This is a lot of discussion for a mediocre replacement level pitcher who has trouble staying over 90 mph for an entire season. If we didn't have 2013 to remember, would anyone be talking about him? He probably belongs in the discussion of who is up next to DFA if a 40 man spot is needed. He and Scott. I agree with your point - up to a point. Yes, he gets more rope because of post-season 2013, but it's more than that. As Eric Van points out, he was pitching quite well for a prolonged stretch last season. He was definitely in my circle of trust relievers category last year until he totally lost it Sept. I never would have thought he would pitch bad enough to lose his post-season spot, but he did. I doubt that he gets passed by Cuevas, Jerez, Elias, or Shepherd. Those guys have never done anything for the Sox and I tend to doubt that they will. Workman had two months last season that I doubt those other guys do. It's also quite obvious his mediocrity post-2014 was about his needing TJ surgery, not a lack of ability or talent to be a solid middle relief arm. He didn't pitch in the majors in 2015 or 2016 so there wasn't any mediocrity there. I believe he had his TJS in or around Spring Training, 2015.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Mar 28, 2018 16:34:38 GMT -5
Where is the Series thread? the, Less than 24 hours till the start of the season initiates the Series thread rule, is in effect!!!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 28, 2018 16:43:42 GMT -5
What? From his recall on July 15 to August 20 he put up a 20.1 13 3 2 4 16 line and looked like a sure thing to be the 7th or even 8th inning guy in the post-season. 0.89 ERA, 2.81 FIP with a .226 BABIP largely driven by a .167 Hard rate and .132 LD rate. So I guess you're right, because that's not very good, it's sensational. And it's not because he was a guy who could never throw strikes and had a brief spell of doing so. Average and max velocity: 93.7, 96.2 -> 7/15 to 8/3 93.0, 94.8 -> 8/4 to 8/20. Deep metrics worse (but still good), offset by BABIP dropping further. 92.3, 94.6 -> 8/21 to 9/14. 4.82 ERA, 5.73 FIP 91.9, 94.4 -> 9/15 to 10/1. 9.64 ERA, 8.51 FIP I bet he lost movement (on all his pitches), too. He also had a 3.92 xFIP from 7/15 to 8/20 due to a LOB% of 95.9%, and a HR/FB rate of 5%. That is literally the same xFIP as his career. And from 8/21 through the end of the season, his xFIP was insignificantly different at 4.05 but had a LOB% of 62.5% and a HR/FB rate of 31.3%. So did anything significantly change? Or is he just another replacement level relief pitcher who had wildly different results at different points of the season? And why is his velocity falling that much in one season? It's almost ironic that his name is Workman. I basically chalked up his 2014 season to him pitching thru an injury and yes we didn't see him again until 2017 and he pitched reasonably well before being awful at the end of the season and in spring training he didn't look any better. It's quite possible that we don't see much of Workman or that if we do he is terrible. And it is worrisome that he can't maintain his velocity consistently. Ultimately I doubt he's somebody they'll be able to rely on. I do worry about this year's bullpen. I don't trust Kelly or Barnes because of their tendency to get wild. I do think that Barnes has the capability of improvement and I always hope that the switch goes on for Kelly but it never quite does. I hope we see the Seattle version of Carson Smith because he was an excellent pitcher and is exactly what they need in front of Kimbrel. I don't anticipate getting Milwaukee's version of Tyler Thornburg, but if they could, between Smith, Thornburg, and Kimbrel they'd have an absolute lockdown bullpen. I do like Poyner eventually but I think that he won't get much chance because as the starters get healthy Johnson (who they might need come next season to start) will be forced back into the bullpen and I don't know that they'll cut ties with Hembree unless he gets totally mauled so the spot wouldn't be there.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 28, 2018 16:50:25 GMT -5
Two or three random observations that I wanted to make anyway. But they also happen to lead to a conclusion that Brandon Workman could be really helpful.
I'll do this like a philosophy argument, with Propositions and Conclusions! (Just to prompt me to get back to work when I'm done.)
P1. It's not credible that the only reason Chris Sale loses 0.40 of ERA every 5 starts after his first 10 (yes, it's that bad) is that he exerts too much effort in ST. They can't really believe that, right?
P2. I know that the 11th Commandment says that Brian Johnson has a #4 starter ceiling (which is to say, below average MLB starter). But Johnson has average velo and four average pitches ... if he has solid-average command, by definition he's already at the #3 / #4 borderline. So how could #4 be his upside? I think he's already a borderline #3. If his his ST this year reflects a new talent level rather than being a pure random sample, then his command is now edging into plus, and he's a solid #3. If it improves further, he can be a good #3.
(Furthermore, command has always trumped stuff when it comes to pitching success. And it's possible that this is especially true, for some reason, for LHP. "Soft-tossing righty" is not a recognized successful type, suggesting a handedness factor at work. If this "Moyer-Owens hypothesis" is correct, then Johnson's chance of getting to a good #3 are even better.)
(Double furthermore, he's thus the #3 prospect in the system.)
C1. No team in MLB needs to go to a 6-man rotation more than the Red Sox, and few teams (no other team?) is better positioned to do so. If Johnson's a #3, they can withstand a single injury or setback among their top 7 and still have 6 that are above-average.
C2. In which case, you now have a six-man pen, and one of the 6 guys is your #7 starter (Johnson or Wright, most likely). Kimbrel, Smith, Kelly, and Barnes are givens. That leaves one spot.
C3. You really, really want to shuffle that spot continuously among a bunch of guys at Pawtucket. Workman, Maddox, Poyner, Scott, Walden, Elias, Beeks, Shephard, Buttrey.
C4. That means Hembree gets traded.
C5. But whenever a guy is on the DL, you have two spots open, not one. And that's the case more often than not. So it would be very nice if one of those guys stepped up and was a real weapon, and becomes the guy you only shuffle down when everyone is healthy and the active roster gets squeezed. And Workman is the one guy who has shown that he has that upside.
C6 (from P1 alone). If they can actually fix the Sale decline problem, this is clearly the best post-season team. If it persists, they're just another team rolling the dice.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 28, 2018 17:45:38 GMT -5
I agree with your point - up to a point. Yes, he gets more rope because of post-season 2013, but it's more than that. As Eric Van points out, he was pitching quite well for a prolonged stretch last season. He was definitely in my circle of trust relievers category last year until he totally lost it Sept. I never would have thought he would pitch bad enough to lose his post-season spot, but he did. I doubt that he gets passed by Cuevas, Jerez, Elias, or Shepherd. Those guys have never done anything for the Sox and I tend to doubt that they will. Workman had two months last season that I doubt those other guys do. It's also quite obvious his mediocrity post-2014 was about his needing TJ surgery, not a lack of ability or talent to be a solid middle relief arm. He didn't pitch in the majors in 2015 or 2016 so there wasn't any mediocrity there. I believe he had his TJS in or around Spring Training, 2015. Mid june 2015, they tried plasma injections first.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 28, 2018 17:51:36 GMT -5
Disagree with the underlying premises, Eric, that (a) Johnson has four average pitches right now, (b) that he has average velo, and (c) that average velo plus 4 average pitches plus solid-average command = a #3/4 borderline starter.
Just taking the velo, because that's the easy part, his average FB velocity last year was around 88 mph. Average fastball speed in MLB right now is something like 92. A quick Google through spring training stories on him has him sitting like 87-89, touching the low 90s on occasion. Even giving a LHP a 1 mph break, he's well below average velocity-wise.
That alone gives him a below-average fastball. I don't have my prospect handbook on me, but Speier's report on him from last year has his pitches down across the board. He maybe has 1 or 2 average pitches right now.
And on the general point, I'd argue that a pitcher with average velo and four average pitches better have at least plus if not better command to survive in the majors.
Personally, I think his upside at this point is that of a #5 on a second division team if the stuff doesn't tick back up to where it once was 3 or so years ago. When I saw him in Portland, he sat 90-92, touching 95 when he needed it. On fastball alone, he's not going to survive sitting 87-89.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 28, 2018 17:52:48 GMT -5
What? From his recall on July 15 to August 20 he put up a 20.1 13 3 2 4 16 line and looked like a sure thing to be the 7th or even 8th inning guy in the post-season. 0.89 ERA, 2.81 FIP with a .226 BABIP largely driven by a .167 Hard rate and .132 LD rate. So I guess you're right, because that's not very good, it's sensational. And it's not because he was a guy who could never throw strikes and had a brief spell of doing so. Average and max velocity: 93.7, 96.2 -> 7/15 to 8/3 93.0, 94.8 -> 8/4 to 8/20. Deep metrics worse (but still good), offset by BABIP dropping further. 92.3, 94.6 -> 8/21 to 9/14. 4.82 ERA, 5.73 FIP 91.9, 94.4 -> 9/15 to 10/1. 9.64 ERA, 8.51 FIP I bet he lost movement (on all his pitches), too. He also had a 3.92 xFIP from 7/15 to 8/20 due to a LOB% of 95.9%, and a HR/FB rate of 5%. That is literally the same xFIP as his career. And from 8/21 through the end of the season, his xFIP was insignificantly different at 4.05 but had a LOB% of 62.5% and a HR/FB rate of 31.3%. So did anything significantly change? Or is he just another replacement level relief pitcher who had wildly different results at different points of the season? And why is his velocity falling that much in one season? It's almost ironic that his name is Workman. He had pitched all of 20 innings since TJ surgery that's why. Then pitched in 51 games and just under 70 innings. That's a big jump in innings for a guy that hasn't had time to build up his arm strength 100%. That's why they always say your second season back is when your 100%. I wouldn't expect that type of decline this year.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Mar 28, 2018 18:12:27 GMT -5
Good Lord. Do you guys have to split hairs all the dang time? Spring Training is OVA!! Lock this damn thread and let's get on to the 2018 season.
Let's do this !!!
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