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Andrew Benintendi--future all-star?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 12, 2018 10:37:50 GMT -5
One thing I'll say about Benintendi's future is that after a full year in the majors, I think the rumors of him being a power hitter were greatly exaggerated. Despite the anecdotes of long home runs he hit in the minors, we now have a full year of statcast data showing that Beni's exit velocities are close to the MLB average. Maybe that can increase somewhat as he matures but I think it's probably something fairly innate to a hitter; most of your big time power hitters had massive raw power going back to their teens. His batted ball profile isn't that of a power hitter either; he's oriented more towards spraying line drives than pulling fly balls. That's the right approach for him, but it's unlikely to ever yield huge home run totals. If you want to forecast him into stardom, it's going to have to look at lot more like recent-vintage Daniel Murphy, where he hits a ton of high-liners/low-flies that don't turn into home runs as much much as they drive high BABIPs and doubles totals. I don't know that his bat control is quite as elite as Murphy's, though.
Realistically, I see him as something like a .285/.375/.465 hitter with solid base running and defense. Christian Yelich is an interesting comp, although Beni isn't afflicted with Yelich's grounder problem. That should get him into more than a few All Star Games I'd say.
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Post by Addam603 on Feb 15, 2018 17:24:57 GMT -5
Beni has a new agent: Casey Close from Excel. Anyone know anything about him. I saw he was with Jeter for a long time and got Greinke his D’Backs contract. Any idea what this could mean for extension talks down the line?
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Post by telson13 on Feb 15, 2018 23:19:49 GMT -5
One thing I'll say about Benintendi's future is that after a full year in the majors, I think the rumors of him being a power hitter were greatly exaggerated. Despite the anecdotes of long home runs he hit in the minors, we now have a full year of statcast data showing that Beni's exit velocities are close to the MLB average. Maybe that can increase somewhat as he matures but I think it's probably something fairly innate to a hitter; most of your big time power hitters had massive raw power going back to their teens. His batted ball profile isn't that of a power hitter either; he's oriented more towards spraying line drives than pulling fly balls. That's the right approach for him, but it's unlikely to ever yield huge home run totals. If you want to forecast him into stardom, it's going to have to look at lot more like recent-vintage Daniel Murphy, where he hits a ton of high-liners/low-flies that don't turn into home runs as much much as they drive high BABIPs and doubles totals. I don't know that his bat control is quite as elite as Murphy's, though. Realistically, I see him as something like a .285/.375/.465 hitter with solid base running and defense. Christian Yelich is an interesting comp, although Beni isn't afflicted with Yelich's grounder problem. That should get him into more than a few All Star Games I'd say. I generally agree but I do think he has a couple of caveats working for him: He’s young, so there’s still some size/power to add, with offense usually peaking around 24-25 (?? I actually recently saw this and was surprised...maybe survivorship bias?) and HR power around 27. He was awful against LH last year, and I have to think his contact quality and statcast data will improve as he eliminates that platoon split (not a minor-league issue, so I’m inclined to think, hit tool considered, it won’t be an MLB one) Overall as a hitter, I think he’s got a lot of developing to do, so I think there’s plenty of room for him to improve his barelling and exit velo. I do think he’s going to look a lot more like Murphy or Mattingly if he does reach his peak projection that a real masher. He’s obviously capable of 20 HR (he’s done it), and he’s really young, so a few peak 25-30 seasons is probably a reasonable hope. I think the Statcast observation is a good one though.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Feb 16, 2018 3:24:09 GMT -5
One thing I'll say about Benintendi's future is that after a full year in the majors, I think the rumors of him being a power hitter were greatly exaggerated. Despite the anecdotes of long home runs he hit in the minors, we now have a full year of statcast data showing that Beni's exit velocities are close to the MLB average. Maybe that can increase somewhat as he matures but I think it's probably something fairly innate to a hitter; most of your big time power hitters had massive raw power going back to their teens. His batted ball profile isn't that of a power hitter either; he's oriented more towards spraying line drives than pulling fly balls. That's the right approach for him, but it's unlikely to ever yield huge home run totals. If you want to forecast him into stardom, it's going to have to look at lot more like recent-vintage Daniel Murphy, where he hits a ton of high-liners/low-flies that don't turn into home runs as much much as they drive high BABIPs and doubles totals. I don't know that his bat control is quite as elite as Murphy's, though. Realistically, I see him as something like a .285/.375/.465 hitter with solid base running and defense. Christian Yelich is an interesting comp, although Beni isn't afflicted with Yelich's grounder problem. That should get him into more than a few All Star Games I'd say. I generally agree but I do think he has a couple of caveats working for him: He’s young, so there’s still some size/power to add, with offense usually peaking around 24-25 (?? I actually recently saw this and was surprised...maybe survivorship bias?) and HR power around 27. He was awful against LH last year, and I have to think his contact quality and statcast data will improve as he eliminates that platoon split (not a minor-league issue, so I’m inclined to think, hit tool considered, it won’t be an MLB one) Overall as a hitter, I think he’s got a lot of developing to do, so I think there’s plenty of room for him to improve his barelling and exit velo. I do think he’s going to look a lot more like Murphy or Mattingly if he does reach his peak projection that a real masher. He’s obviously capable of 20 HR (he’s done it), and he’s really young, so a few peak 25-30 seasons is probably a reasonable hope. I think the Statcast observation is a good one though. With the apparent consensus that he will be a 20-20 guy with potential for 25-30HR, continued growth and maturation, hard work, good speed, likely above average defense in LF, good personality, so glad DDo held onto him. Sounds like a regular candidate for GG, SS and All star games. Do we really overvalue Sox prospects? I don't think so. Beni, Devers, Shaw, Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, Vasquez and many others agree.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 16, 2018 10:29:52 GMT -5
One thing I'll say about Benintendi's future is that after a full year in the majors, I think the rumors of him being a power hitter were greatly exaggerated. Despite the anecdotes of long home runs he hit in the minors, we now have a full year of statcast data showing that Beni's exit velocities are close to the MLB average. Maybe that can increase somewhat as he matures but I think it's probably something fairly innate to a hitter; most of your big time power hitters had massive raw power going back to their teens. His batted ball profile isn't that of a power hitter either; he's oriented more towards spraying line drives than pulling fly balls. That's the right approach for him, but it's unlikely to ever yield huge home run totals. If you want to forecast him into stardom, it's going to have to look at lot more like recent-vintage Daniel Murphy, where he hits a ton of high-liners/low-flies that don't turn into home runs as much much as they drive high BABIPs and doubles totals. I don't know that his bat control is quite as elite as Murphy's, though. Realistically, I see him as something like a .285/.375/.465 hitter with solid base running and defense. Christian Yelich is an interesting comp, although Beni isn't afflicted with Yelich's grounder problem. That should get him into more than a few All Star Games I'd say. I generally agree but I do think he has a couple of caveats working for him: He’s young, so there’s still some size/power to add, with offense usually peaking around 24-25 (?? I actually recently saw this and was surprised...maybe survivorship bias?) and HR power around 27. He was awful against LH last year, and I have to think his contact quality and statcast data will improve as he eliminates that platoon split (not a minor-league issue, so I’m inclined to think, hit tool considered, it won’t be an MLB one) Overall as a hitter, I think he’s got a lot of developing to do, so I think there’s plenty of room for him to improve his barelling and exit velo. I do think he’s going to look a lot more like Murphy or Mattingly if he does reach his peak projection that a real masher. He’s obviously capable of 20 HR (he’s done it), and he’s really young, so a few peak 25-30 seasons is probably a reasonable hope. I think the Statcast observation is a good one though. First off, if people don't know where I'm getting these numbers, baseballsavant.mlb.com I don't think you can blame his mediocre exit velos just on the platoon split. His single hardest hit ball all of last year was 108.6, which is 224th highest on a list of 334 hitters who had at least 150 batted balls last year. I have no idea what the aging curve on exit velo looks like. Unless I've missed something, I don't think anyone in the public sphere does. The data just doesn't go back far enough. However if you look at the leaderboards, it's pretty obvious that an incremental change is more likely than a dramatic one. All you have to do is look at the top of the leaderboard to get a pretty good idea that elite exit velo guys are born, not made. There's probably some improvement to be had there, but I suspect he's going to remain more or less in the middle of the pack. Jose Ramirez is another potentially good comp. Slightly lower max exit velo than Beni, but slightly better average exit velo on his fly balls and liners. Slugged near .600 last year, with 29 homers and a league-leading 56 doubles. Although, like Murphy, Ramirez's contact skills are super-elite, whereas Beni's are merely very good. This seems to be a theme among the elite hitters who live in the same exit velo range that Beni does, which makes doubt that he'll ever get quite to that level. Contact ability is very much an innate skill, and one that doesn't get better with age. I'll fully confess that I'm still feeling around in the dark somewhat when it comes to statcast data, so if someone has a different interpretation of these numbers I'm open to it. My overall impression though, both from more traditional metrics and the newer batted ball stuff, is that Beni has a lot of hitting skills that are average to above average, but none that are really elite. So again, I don't know that there's a huge amount of growth coming, but I think he'll be a solid hitter for the foreseeable future. Nothing wrong with that.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 16, 2018 13:32:34 GMT -5
First off, if people don't know where I'm getting these numbers, baseballsavant.mlb.com I don't think you can blame his mediocre exit velos just on the platoon split. His single hardest hit ball all of last year was 108.6, which is 224th highest on a list of 334 hitters who had at least 150 batted balls last year. I have no idea what the aging curve on exit velo looks like. Unless I've missed something, I don't think anyone in the public sphere does. The data just doesn't go back far enough. However if you look at the leaderboards, it's pretty obvious that an incremental change is more likely than a dramatic one. All you have to do is look at the top of the leaderboard to get a pretty good idea that elite exit velo guys are born, not made. There's probably some improvement to be had there, but I suspect he's going to remain more or less in the middle of the pack. Jose Ramirez is another potentially good comp. Slightly lower max exit velo than Beni, but slightly better average exit velo on his fly balls and liners. Slugged near .600 last year, with 29 homers and a league-leading 56 doubles. Although, like Murphy, Ramirez's contact skills are super-elite, whereas Beni's are merely very good. This seems to be a theme among the elite hitters who live in the same exit velo range that Beni does, which makes doubt that he'll ever get quite to that level. Contact ability is very much an innate skill, and one that doesn't get better with age. I'll fully confess that I'm still feeling around in the dark somewhat when it comes to statcast data, so if someone has a different interpretation of these numbers I'm open to it. My overall impression though, both from more traditional metrics and the newer batted ball stuff, is that Beni has a lot of hitting skills that are average to above average, but none that are really elite. So again, I don't know that there's a huge amount of growth coming, but I think he'll be a solid hitter for the foreseeable future. Nothing wrong with that. I use baseball savant quite a bit and recommend it for anyone who hasn't checked it out yet. That stat you brought up (hardest hit ball with 150+) is the only one I could find which made him look bad. Every other indicator shows him as average to above average, which makes sense as most scouts would grade his power potential as 55. The guys at the top are the big power hitters, many of whom are giant (Judge, Stanton, etc) but some of them are just very strong filled out guys (Khris Davis, Mike Napoli, Alex Avila, etc). So just as scouts project power vs raw power, you can see where the guys who are much shorter but have filled out frames can get close to the top, but not quite up there as their power ceilings are a bit lower. As great as the statcast data is at showing speed, power and fielding, there isn't anything there for contact rates. Last I heard Benintendi had a 70 ceiling and the statcast data has nothing to offer to persuade or dissuade this analysis. Benintendi made himself into the best highschool player in the country. After a .701 ops his freshman year in college he again became the best player in the country. He's not someone I would bet against improving.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 17, 2018 12:19:32 GMT -5
I generally agree but I do think he has a couple of caveats working for him: He’s young, so there’s still some size/power to add, with offense usually peaking around 24-25 (?? I actually recently saw this and was surprised...maybe survivorship bias?) and HR power around 27. He was awful against LH last year, and I have to think his contact quality and statcast data will improve as he eliminates that platoon split (not a minor-league issue, so I’m inclined to think, hit tool considered, it won’t be an MLB one) Overall as a hitter, I think he’s got a lot of developing to do, so I think there’s plenty of room for him to improve his barelling and exit velo. I do think he’s going to look a lot more like Murphy or Mattingly if he does reach his peak projection that a real masher. He’s obviously capable of 20 HR (he’s done it), and he’s really young, so a few peak 25-30 seasons is probably a reasonable hope. I think the Statcast observation is a good one though. First off, if people don't know where I'm getting these numbers, baseballsavant.mlb.com I don't think you can blame his mediocre exit velos just on the platoon split. His single hardest hit ball all of last year was 108.6, which is 224th highest on a list of 334 hitters who had at least 150 batted balls last year. I have no idea what the aging curve on exit velo looks like. Unless I've missed something, I don't think anyone in the public sphere does. The data just doesn't go back far enough. However if you look at the leaderboards, it's pretty obvious that an incremental change is more likely than a dramatic one. All you have to do is look at the top of the leaderboard to get a pretty good idea that elite exit velo guys are born, not made. There's probably some improvement to be had there, but I suspect he's going to remain more or less in the middle of the pack. Jose Ramirez is another potentially good comp. Slightly lower max exit velo than Beni, but slightly better average exit velo on his fly balls and liners. Slugged near .600 last year, with 29 homers and a league-leading 56 doubles. Although, like Murphy, Ramirez's contact skills are super-elite, whereas Beni's are merely very good. This seems to be a theme among the elite hitters who live in the same exit velo range that Beni does, which makes doubt that he'll ever get quite to that level. Contact ability is very much an innate skill, and one that doesn't get better with age. I'll fully confess that I'm still feeling around in the dark somewhat when it comes to statcast data, so if someone has a different interpretation of these numbers I'm open to it. My overall impression though, both from more traditional metrics and the newer batted ball stuff, is that Beni has a lot of hitting skills that are average to above average, but none that are really elite. So again, I don't know that there's a huge amount of growth coming, but I think he'll be a solid hitter for the foreseeable future. Nothing wrong with that. Odd how life works, but what we were just discussing here: www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/quick-and-dirty-aging-curves-with-exit-velocity/
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Post by telson13 on Feb 18, 2018 1:09:19 GMT -5
Fenway, a couple of thoughts, because I think your points on contact ability citing Ramirez and Murphy are excellent ones, but in light of the fangraphs article on exit velo/aging:
Benintendi doesn’t have that elite contact rate, although he improved his K rate quite a bit from his debut. Early on in his career, Murphy was in the 13% range, and Benintendi was a tick over 17% last year for K rate. Ramirez is in another world. But Benintendi also walks more, and sees more pitches. He swung more last year vs his debut, largely at pitches outside the zone (29% vs 26% O-swing, and overall 44% last year vs 43.1 prior). His debut is a small sample, so it’s tough to rely on its value, but the trend was more swings predominantly on pitches outside the zone. His Z-contact improved, though. And he upped his B.B. rate by 2% while cutting his K rate. That says to me he’s being a little more selectively aggressive but getting fooled a little more. His O-contact went up a little too, but those are pitches less likely to be struck well. And it’s borne out in a BABIP drop (yes, to league average, but historically his minor league numbers were outstanding, save his debut when his IFFB rate was ludicrously and unsustainably high). FWIW he had a better ISO with the bases empty but his K rate was much higher and walk rate lower, and production MUCH lower (wRC+ of 82 vs 128 with MOB and 148 with RISP), suggesting to me that he was trying to do too much, rather than stick with his measured approach.
The FG article makes a good point about the initial value of film, coaching, conditioning, etc at the MLB level. That’s the argument for the early positive improvement of “lower EV” hitters. I think Benintendi is the sort of hitter who will benefit significantly here. It’s why I also mentioned platoon splits (I by no means think this is “the” major contributor, probably just a significant one). His GB/FB vs LH was 51/28, and his IFFB rate 16%, while vs RH he was 38/41 and 9%. The eyeball test last year seemed to say he’s rolling over on LH and getting fooled trying to pull, and I think that’s reflected in the data above.
When looking at Murphy, he’s marginally less selective (O-Sw of 31.8% vs AB at 28.4% career; Z-Sw of 66.3 vs 64.2) but definitely has better contact rates (O/Z-C of 78.9/94.6% vs 71.2/89.4). Ramirez has similar selectivity to Benintendi but is 81.4/91.6. The O-C differences are much more pronounced, so I’m still of a mind that Benintendi has some improement potential there with coaching, although it’s true that for the most part I don’t see much change in the few hitters I’ve looked at contact-wise. AB also has a higher SwStr rate (about 2% greater vs each), but he’s historically (developmentally, I mean) also been a guy who hit for more power. And if his numbers with the bases empty are an indication, he may be selling out on contact for power unnecessarily.
Idk. It’s agreat debate and a fun question. I hold out hope that Benintendi’s going to see some incremental improvement in both EV and contact in these first couple of years in MLB. I think his true-talent BABIP will settle in around .330-.340 as his approach vs LH improves and his understanding of his role in the offense (eg, get on base, don’t worry about HR) evolves. Having a bopper like Martinez might be a boon to him, Mookie, JBJ, and Bogey In terms of the expectations they put on thrmselves. I’m bullish on Hyers and his ability to address some of these issues. Regardless, it’s going to be fun to watch Beni develop. As most have said, even a .280/25-30HR/25SB player with sound defense and baserunning is an excellent player.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 19, 2018 16:42:03 GMT -5
Beni has a new agent: Casey Close from Excel. Anyone know anything about him. I saw he was with Jeter for a long time and got Greinke his D’Backs contract. Any idea what this could mean for extension talks down the line? I'm sure everyone has their take, mine is that Close is the dirtbag that screwed over his client, Brady Aiken a few years back. A dirtbag agent isn't in the Sox best interest. In the end, though, Aiken — or whoever was advising him— acted foolishly, stubbornly and impulsively in ignoring what ended up being a fair offer. In deciding either that: 1) signing with the Astros was a non-starter after the way he was treated; or 2) that $5 million was insufficient compensation despite the inherent risk associated with young pitchers, Aiken’s camp squandered what may very well be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. . . . Just prior to the signing deadline, the Astros reportedly upped their offer significantly — to as high as $5 million — but, incredibly, Aiken’s representatives never responded, and the star pitcher will be left on the outside looking in until next year’s draft. At least. the-cauldron.com/brady-aiken-got-screwed-then-he-screwed-himself-ec250b8b0b6That article was written shortly after the signing period. In retrospect, they were right, Aiken ended up signing with the Indians for $2.5 million, half what the Astros offered. It also appears that the Astros were right in their medical evaluation. Aiken is the Indians #24 prospect 4 years later.
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Post by huskies15 on Feb 22, 2018 16:13:37 GMT -5
Having just read back through some of these responses, I just want to say that the discussion on batted ball profiles and how it pertains to Benintendi is great. These discussions, when respectful and insightful, are why I love this site. S/O Fenway and Telson for that.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 22, 2018 23:59:47 GMT -5
Having just read back through some of these responses, I just want to say that the discussion on batted ball profiles and how it pertains to Benintendi is great. These discussions, when respectful and insightful, are why I love this site. S/O Fenway and Telson for that. Thanks, man. I love that stuff, too. When I first started posting here I had a passing knowledge of the more advanced metrics and guys like jmei and Eric in particular really challenged me to think about the available data in more depth and through different lenses. I love Fenway’s post because it really made me do exactly that with Benintendi...question my own suppositions and rationally re-examine my “wants” (ie, that Beni become Mattingly redux) versus my actual observations (ie my own eyeball test *in light of* the fantastic well of data out there). I agree...at its best, this site absolutely teaches me about baseball infinitely more than I’d’ve ever learned on my own. And it’s great having so many knowledgeable posters to provide intelligent, compelling counterpoints.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 23, 2018 0:10:21 GMT -5
Having just read back through some of these responses, I just want to say that the discussion on batted ball profiles and how it pertains to Benintendi is great. These discussions, when respectful and insightful, are why I love this site. S/O Fenway and Telson for that. I’m also hugely psyched at the JDM signing for exactly the reason I wrote above. It’s probably rampant homerism, I’m sure, but I really believe that it will have noticeable, even marked, trickle-down effects. It’s a feeling, sure (and I genuinely believe reflected in, at least for him individually, AB’s production data for baserunners, above), but it seemed all last year the offense was pressing to make up for Ortiz’s absence. Martinez just takes a LOT of pressure off as THE GUY, which he’s proven to be, and I think his presence will add more than just the raw numbers might say. Synergistic, instead of just summative, I guess.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 23, 2018 1:18:22 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 23, 2018 3:06:06 GMT -5
Having just read back through some of these responses, I just want to say that the discussion on batted ball profiles and how it pertains to Benintendi is great. These discussions, when respectful and insightful, are why I love this site. S/O Fenway and Telson for that. Thanks, man. I love that stuff, too. When I first started posting here I had a passing knowledge of the more advanced metrics and guys like jmei and Eric in particular really challenged me to think about the available data in more depth and through different lenses. I love Fenway’s post because it really made me do exactly that with Benintendi...question my own suppositions and rationally re-examine my “wants” (ie, that Beni become Mattingly redux) versus my actual observations (ie my own eyeball test *in light of* the fantastic well of data out there). I agree...at its best, this site absolutely teaches me about baseball infinitely more than I’d’ve ever learned on my own. And it’s great having so many knowledgeable posters to provide intelligent, compelling counterpoints. Yeah, I agree with this Telson. I took a step back from thinking I'm the smartest man in the room a long time ago, because truth is while I'm here, I'm not. I could never put a paragraph with words together like the one you just wrote, even if I can understand it. I can be the loudest elephant in the room though at times. It can be obnoxious, but mostly harmless. You can't be from Massachusetts and not be a little obnoxious. Either way I come here to actually learn and gather perspective. Maybe I'm over-rating a certain player. Maybe I got to watch out for this prospect as a sleeper. Just little stuff that you just wouldn't notice on the homepage of this website.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 23, 2018 13:45:57 GMT -5
Thanks, man. I love that stuff, too. When I first started posting here I had a passing knowledge of the more advanced metrics and guys like jmei and Eric in particular really challenged me to think about the available data in more depth and through different lenses. I love Fenway’s post because it really made me do exactly that with Benintendi...question my own suppositions and rationally re-examine my “wants” (ie, that Beni become Mattingly redux) versus my actual observations (ie my own eyeball test *in light of* the fantastic well of data out there). I agree...at its best, this site absolutely teaches me about baseball infinitely more than I’d’ve ever learned on my own. And it’s great having so many knowledgeable posters to provide intelligent, compelling counterpoints. Yeah, I agree with this Telson. I took a step back from thinking I'm the smartest man in the room a long time ago, because truth is while I'm here, I'm not. I could never put a paragraph with words together like the one you just wrote, even if I can understand it. I can be the loudest elephant in the room though at times. It can be obnoxious, but mostly harmless. You can't be from Massachusetts and not be a little obnoxious. Either way I come here to actually learn and gather perspective. Maybe I'm over-rating a certain player. Maybe I got to watch out for this prospect as a sleeper. Just little stuff that you just wouldn't notice on the homepage of this website. Lol...the observation about being from MA is the essence of being from MA. On so many levels 🤣
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Post by telson13 on Jun 7, 2018 22:44:15 GMT -5
Just wanted to revisit Benintendi’s year so far as far as Statcast and results go. He’s 88/233 in barrels/100 PA (6.1), and 132/233 in average EV. So he’s above-average in terms of bat-to-ball, but not surprisingly given his size and the controlled nature of his swing, slightly below-average in EV. It’s still an improvement from last year, which isn’t surprising looking at his stat line (big jump in IsoP and a moderate jump in BABIP). As an aside, Mookie leads in barreling the ball (JDM is second lol), at 14.6...although historically he’s been in the 5s. Mookie’s EVs have jumped, too, not surprising given the jump in ideal contact. So I think there’s room for Beni to improve both barrels and, as a consequence, EV, even if he doesn’t get a whole lot stronger. Benintendi is, as of tonight, at a WRC+ of 147, which is excellent if not quite elite yet. He’s on a pace to approach 30 HR and 22-25 steals, and he rarely gets caught. His current line is .299/.378/.554. That’s awfully impressive given his slow start, and he’s playing solid defense even in CF. If you believe his recent performance is indicative of a developmental step forward, it’s not too far to look to see .300/.380/.550, and if he has put the season start in the past, and reached a new level, maybe even .315/.400/.575 or so. ROS projections have him .285/.370/.520 or so to finish the year, with 4.5 or so WAR. That’s a pretty outstanding player. I think it’s an underestimate. Projections don’t account for development, and at 23 (almost 24), he’s still learning. It’s becoming pretty clear to me that he’s deserving of an ASG nod this year, and the sky’s the limit right now. Nice piece in the Globe about his ascent: www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/06/07/andrew-benintendi-had-better-get-used-spotlight/vsHjFQqkL4EkuevwGQbRKM/story.html
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 7, 2018 23:30:29 GMT -5
Yeah Benintendi, Mookie (when he's healthy), Moreland, Martinez, and Wright have been the best stories of the Sox this year. Benintendi should be in the all-star game, even if he isn't starting. He's earned it.
Edit- The extra weight he put on in the off-season is really paying off. He's getting stronger which is key to his power.
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Post by m1keyboots on Jun 8, 2018 8:57:05 GMT -5
One thing I'll say about Benintendi's future is that after a full year in the majors, I think the rumors of him being a power hitter were greatly exaggerated. Despite the anecdotes of long home runs he hit in the minors, we now have a full year of statcast data showing that Beni's exit velocities are close to the MLB average. Maybe that can increase somewhat as he matures but I think it's probably something fairly innate to a hitter; most of your big time power hitters had massive raw power going back to their teens. His batted ball profile isn't that of a power hitter either; he's oriented more towards spraying line drives than pulling fly balls. That's the right approach for him, but it's unlikely to ever yield huge home run totals. If you want to forecast him into stardom, it's going to have to look at lot more like recent-vintage Daniel Murphy, where he hits a ton of high-liners/low-flies that don't turn into home runs as much much as they drive high BABIPs and doubles totals. I don't know that his bat control is quite as elite as Murphy's, though. Realistically, I see him as something like a .285/.375/.465 hitter with solid base running and defense. Christian Yelich is an interesting comp, although Beni isn't afflicted with Yelich's grounder problem. That should get him into more than a few All Star Games I'd say. Well, just last night they mentioned he had been pulling the ball in the air more often. He went yahtzee to lead off the game :/. Felt like those massive home run distances we heard about are a product of SEC weather and constantly barreling pitches. He'd have a hard time getting to 40, but approaching 30 yearly with his type of batted ball profile seem's like a good consolation.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jun 8, 2018 9:52:12 GMT -5
Forgot how good a thread this was and it has certainly been fun to revisit the comments given that AB has been raking for about 5 weeks now. Can he maintain a 1000+ OPS the rest of the way? Who knows but as the former player of the year in both high school and college I wouldn't put it past him.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 9, 2018 1:44:05 GMT -5
There are only 4 players with 10 HRs and 10 SB.
Bennintendi Betts Trout Tim Anderson
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Post by telson13 on Jun 9, 2018 22:56:48 GMT -5
Forgot how good a thread this was and it has certainly been fun to revisit the comments given that AB has been raking for about 5 weeks now. Can he maintain a 1000+ OPS the rest of the way? Who knows but as the former player of the year in both high school and college I wouldn't put it past him. I think 1.000 is asking a lot (that’s .400/.600, which is phenomenal), but as I wrote, I think .950 the rest of the way (.390/.560) is *well* within his reach. FWIW, looking at Mookie’s development as a hitter, I think Benintendi is most likely to benefit not so much from getting stronger (which obviously helps, but doesn’t make a hitter good), but from even incremental improvements in solid contact. Better barreling leads to increased EVs, because there’s less “wasted” energy (energy directed away from the ideal final vector, which is 25-30 degrees from level for HR). Benintendi’s hit tool (feel, pitch selection, swing path, swing mechanics, selectivity, recognition, etc) is so good that while (Fenway pointed this out) he might not improve his contact rates substantially, he may develop such bat control and pitch identification that he can boost his barreling the way Mookie has. I’m heartened quite a bit by his obvious development versus last year, similarly to Mookie’s second full season (when he also barreled at around 6%). Mookie put up 8.3 fWAR in 2016, but remember that a lot of that was defensive value (and baserunning). Benintendi is going to struggle to do that in LF, and while he gets his steals, he’s not the baserunner Mookie is. BUT, looking at the offensive numbers, Beni has a higher WRC+, a higher IsoP, and walks at a *substantially* higher rate (double, in fact). He strikes out 50% more, but he also had a very slow start and some crappy NE spring weather. I think his IsoP and (as pitchers fear him more, IsoD) will stay high with better hitting conditions of summer. So while Mookie might be the better *player*, I think there’s still a good chance that Beni becomes the better *hitter*. That’s a lot to say given what Mookie’s done this year, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable. And in Mookie and JDM, he’s got two of the best in the business to learn from.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 11, 2018 21:12:29 GMT -5
Now 14th in MLB in WRC+, at 147. 10th in WAR, at 2.6 13th in SB with 11 37th best K rate and 33rd best walk rate. He’s as advertised: all-around good, and an outstanding hitter. They could use some heat til Mookie’s back to form. Cast your ASG ballots!!
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,768
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Post by mobaz on Dec 10, 2019 9:26:22 GMT -5
Early BSOHL Alert! Apparently Benintendo was playing too heavy last year. Sounds like faster rather than stronger is the priority:
Per The Athletic's Jen McCaffrey
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,787
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Post by nomar on Dec 10, 2019 11:12:47 GMT -5
Hard to see him dramatically changing EV (and maybe tightening launch angle a bit) and becoming a star. But he’s still valuable. If his value is really the offsetting to a salary dump, then I definitely would rather keep him.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 10, 2019 13:55:04 GMT -5
Hard to see him dramatically changing EV (and maybe tightening launch angle a bit) and becoming a star. But he’s still valuable. If his value is really the offsetting to a salary dump, then I definitely would rather keep him. If he got a little to muscled up it could certainly affect his bat speed hence his EV. I remember back in the 90's Ruben Sierra was a young stud killing the ball and all of a sudden lost it due to working out and tightening up. Training the correct way should keep that from happening and they have learned a lot since then but maybe that was Bennys problem in 19. They know more than I, you can only hope as it wasn't fun watching him degrees.
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