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Post by telson13 on Feb 23, 2018 23:10:31 GMT -5
I’ve seen 70 put on his speed, and that’s probably about right given his 6.18 60y (for reference, that’s 55 meters; the top national HS track sprinters typically run about 5.80-6.00, or 6.30-6.50 for the 60m which is the current distance used). So, even though he’s a baseball player, he’s just a few ticks behind truly elite (for humans his age, not just baseball players) speed. Track sprinters actually peak at 28-30, so I do think he’s got more speed to grow into. I’m not sure he’s a 50-steal threat (read about Herb Washington to see why), but it’s not unrealistic, either. I think that article underrates his hit tool (I don’t put much credence in the stint last year at all, it’s too small a sample); he has pop too and I’ll say again, could become a .270-.280/.350/.440 guy with 30+ SB and a RF-caliber arm in CF. I think he’s a great, great pick where they got him. True CF who has legit offensive upside. OK, the two of you convinced me to be excited about him! He’s absolutely my new prospect binky, and has been since they drafted him. I think he’s going to have more power than projected simply because at 19, he’s not a small dude. He reminds me of Eric Davis a little bit in terms of build and explosivity. His form as a runner is super raw...and he’s still exceptionally fast. I think quality coaching will transform him. Love the walks, too.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 23, 2018 23:23:57 GMT -5
He needs to stick at CF, I don't think RF gives him a ton of value. He should absolutely stick there with his speed too.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 23, 2018 23:29:27 GMT -5
No need to piss in the man's Cheerios. Ha, thats fair....but have to push back a little on comparisons to a HOFer and an 80-grade MVP season. IMO, a Brett Gardner career would be like a top 5% percentile outcome. Don't get me wrong though, I'm excited to see how Brannen develops. Yeah Gardner was the comp I used on draft night. I think that's fair. I don't think he's Ellsbury or definitely not Ichiro. There will never be another Ichiro. A hitter who moved to first as he's swinging. One of the fastest hitters from home to first in MLB history. One of the greatest hand-eye coordinations in the history of the game. Cole Brannen will never be that, but I loved this pick from day one and picked him and Houck as breakout candidates on that thread also.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 23, 2018 23:31:10 GMT -5
At some point I remember hearing the name Grady Sizemore as somebody that they hoped he could develop into, with more speed and less pop. Sizemore was a .270ish hitter who walked a lot and was a dynamic leadoff hitter, playing a strong CF - this was all before the injuries and before he went to the Red Sox as a shell of his former self.
That would be some amazing development if Brannen wound up anything like that. We know he can play D, has amazing speed, can use it to steal bases, and is a patient hitter.
We have no idea if he can hit nor do we know if he will have any power at all.
If nothing else, he's one of the most interesting prospects that the Sox have. They really don't have anybody else like him. Lorenzo Cedrola has some similarities, but I think he has a better hit tool, but doesn't draw walks. His profile is as a backup outfielder coming off the bench if he makes the majors.
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giltg
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Post by giltg on Feb 23, 2018 23:39:37 GMT -5
Chooooo choo chuga chuga chuga choooo choo ,All aboard The Brannen Express . This train RUNS on Cole only.
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giltg
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Post by giltg on Feb 24, 2018 11:14:09 GMT -5
Cole Brannen played 39 games for the GCL Red Sox and three games for the Lowell Spinners in 2017 . Brannen hit a combined .226 which is not very appealing. he had 143 at-bats compiling 31 hits and 34 walks which averages out to a .384 OBP. he stole 10 bases of the 12 attempts he made. Good base stealers know how to get on base and most don't hit for power but they score runs. Brandon scored 23 runs out of the 61 times he was on base. I hope Cole Brannen develops power but as long as he hits for extra bases and scores runs he could be valuable to any team that he plays on and hopefully that's the Red Sox.
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Post by sarasoxer on Feb 24, 2018 20:52:30 GMT -5
Brannen has to get on base at a high rate..extra keen eye... and hit for high average.. to be an asset. His limited slugging capacity (3 x base hits in 181 abs) downgrade those possibilities.
To date, Cole presents as maybe a 4th or 5th OF in today's game IF he makes it. Even a .260 average with 5 HRs. and 30-40 steals is a 'second injury' replacement guy...not a star or a regular for the Sox. He certainly would not displace JBJ...
IMO to make it he has to make a quantum leap in power and batting average potential.
Sadly, I don't see this happening but hope that I am wrong.
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Post by Addam603 on Feb 24, 2018 21:11:19 GMT -5
His numbers in the GCL can’t be used as a measure of future success. Half a season of baseball at age 18 isn’t going to tell you much. He still needs to grow into his power. Still just a kid.
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Post by sarasoxer on Feb 24, 2018 21:25:01 GMT -5
His numbers in the GCL can’t be used as a measure of future success. Half a season of baseball at age 18 isn’t going to tell you much. He still needs to grow into his power. Still just a kid. Agreed. He will get bigger/stronger. Based on his observed physique tho I don't see great potential to do so...He looks like a thinnish, lithe athlete type...defense and speed guy. Again think Rick Miller if you go back that far. He is not Ellsbury 2.0.
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giltg
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Post by giltg on Feb 24, 2018 21:41:23 GMT -5
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giltg
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Post by giltg on Feb 24, 2018 22:18:53 GMT -5
Ok. I see a skinny underdeveloped 18 year old kid who is naturally gifted with speed and probably doesn't take training seriously.Now he is a professional athlete with professional trainer's with professional nutritionalist's ready to help him develop the strength to become the player that the Sox believe they drafted. So far Ellsbury or Future Hall of Famer Ichiro comps haven't worked well. What if Brannen developed into a player like Billy Hamilton of the Cincinnati Reds a career .248BA 298OBP or hasn't stolen less than 56 bases in his 4 full years of playing. Would you say that he was a failed draft pick.
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Post by Addam603 on Feb 24, 2018 22:48:06 GMT -5
Ok. I see a skinny underdeveloped 18 year old kid who is naturally gifted with speed and probably doesn't take training seriously.Now he is a professional athlete with professional trainer's with professional nutritionalist's ready to help him develop the strength to become the player that the Sox believe they drafted. So far Ellsbury or Future Hall of Famer Ichiro comps haven't worked well. What if Brannen developed into a player like Billy Hamilton of the Cincinnati Reds a career .248BA 298OBP or hasn't stolen less than 56 bases in his 4 full years of playing. Would you say that he was a failed draft pick. I’d be surprised if Brannen didn’t beat those marks. He seems to have good plate discipline, so he’d likely slaughter that OBP.
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giltg
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Post by giltg on Feb 25, 2018 5:22:45 GMT -5
Ok. I see a skinny underdeveloped 18 year old kid who is naturally gifted with speed and probably doesn't take training seriously.Now he is a professional athlete with professional trainer's with professional nutritionalist's ready to help him develop the strength to become the player that the Sox believe they drafted. So far Ellsbury or Future Hall of Famer Ichiro comps haven't worked well. What if Brannen developed into a player like Billy Hamilton of the Cincinnati Reds a career .248BA 298OBP or hasn't stolen less than 56 bases in his 4 full years of playing. Would you say that he was a failed draft pick. I’d be surprised if Brannen didn’t beat those marks. He seems to have good plate discipline, so he’d likely slaughter that OBP. I think the same way. Another thing that I think should be true, is that anything to do with Baseball should be fun.
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giltg
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Post by giltg on Feb 25, 2018 19:36:42 GMT -5
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Post by fightingmissionary08 on Feb 26, 2018 3:27:53 GMT -5
I’ve seen 70 put on his speed, and that’s probably about right given his 6.18 60y (for reference, that’s 55 meters; the top national HS track sprinters typically run about 5.80-6.00, or 6.30-6.50 for the 60m which is the current distance used). So, even though he’s a baseball player, he’s just a few ticks behind truly elite (for humans his age, not just baseball players) speed. Track sprinters actually peak at 28-30, so I do think he’s got more speed to grow into. Not to come on here and be 1) pedantic; 2) somewhat off-topic; and 3) a dick (the trifecta—and that’s not even counting the bonus that I likely messed up the formatting when trying to pull only the relevant portions of your post to quote!) in my first post, but there are several mis-statements (or, at least, statements that require some additional information) in this post: First, where did you see that 6.18 60 time for Brannen? That would likely make him the fastest player in baseball. Depending on source, I’ve seen 6.19-6.3 seconds tied to Kenny Loften, Trea Turner, Terrance Gore, and Billy Hamilton. FanGraphs also considers 6.3 speed to be an 80 on the scouting scale (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-explained-the-20-80-scouting-scale/), so either Brannen has run that 6.19 time and the “70” tag is selling his run tool short, or he’s more like a 6.4-6.5 guy (still blazing fast, but not uniquely so). Second, for the sake of accurate comparison (and his is where this starts to get super-pedantic and off-topic—but sorry, I’m a track guy), it’s worth noting that those stats about elite HSers’ 55- and 60-meter times are off on the fast side. Christian Coleman just set the world record in the 60m at 6.34 seconds (http://www.usatf.org/News/Coleman-destroys-WR;-AR-for-Nelvis-at-USATF-Indoor.aspx) and the national high school record for the 55m (which is, as you noted, basically 60 yards) is 6.08 seconds and 6.57 for the 60m (https://www.trackandfieldnews.com/index.php/category-records/475-mens-indoor-high-school-records). Third, and although I don’t know this for a fact, it’s quite likely that those track times and baseball’s 60-yard times are actually timed differently. Record-quality track and field performances are electronically timed (which will make the time slower than hand-timed—the standard conversion is you round up to the nearest tenth of a second and then add .24 seconds to that to go from hand-timed to automatic [http://www.ocmstrackmeet.com/fat-vs-handheld-times.html]) with a clock that starts running when the gun is fired, although track athletes have the benefit of using starting blocks to push off (and also of running in track spikes on a smooth track). Although I don’t know his for sure, baseball players are likely manually timed with a stopwatch that starts on their first motion, although they have the disadvantage of not using starting blocks and running on either dirt or grass. Even with those disadvantages, it’s likely that baseball players 60-yard dash times are likely .15-.2 seconds faster than their track and field 55m dash times would be (that 60 yards is a fraction of a meter short of 55 meters also adds a couple hundredths of a second). Lastly, I don’t think you have the aging curve for speed quite right. While Justin Gatlin is currently breaking the aging curve, all all-time top-10 Men’s 100m times other than Gatlin’s anomalous 9.74 in 2015 (run after returning from his SECOND doping suspension) were run by men between 21-28 years old (http://www.alltime-athletics.com/m_100ok.htm)so I think it’s a fair assumption that elite speed typically peaks a couple/few years younger than you stated, although it surely can vary greatly. Anyway, this all suggests that Brannen probably runs the 60-yard dash in about 6.4-6.5 seconds baseball time and 6.6-6.8 seconds track and field time—which is still very very fast, but is probably .2-.3 slower than the fastest baseball players, and .6-.8 seconds behind truly world-class sprinters (which is insane). Now please feel free to return to your normally scheduled, more baseball-related programming!
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 26, 2018 6:21:37 GMT -5
I’ve seen 70 put on his speed, and that’s probably about right given his 6.18 60y (for reference, that’s 55 meters; the top national HS track sprinters typically run about 5.80-6.00, or 6.30-6.50 for the 60m which is the current distance used). So, even though he’s a baseball player, he’s just a few ticks behind truly elite (for humans his age, not just baseball players) speed. Track sprinters actually peak at 28-30, so I do think he’s got more speed to grow into. Not to come on here and be 1) pedantic; 2) somewhat off-topic; and 3) a dick (the trifecta—and that’s not even counting the bonus that I likely messed up the formatting when trying to pull only the relevant portions of your post to quote!) in my first post, but there are several mis-statements (or, at least, statements that require some additional information) in this post: First, where did you see that 6.18 60 time for Brannen? That would likely make him the fastest player in baseball. Depending on source, I’ve seen 6.19-6.3 seconds tied to Kenny Loften, Trea Turner, Terrance Gore, and Billy Hamilton. FanGraphs also considers 6.3 speed to be an 80 on the scouting scale (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-explained-the-20-80-scouting-scale/), so either Brannen has run that 6.19 time and the “70” tag is selling his run tool short, or he’s more like a 6.4-6.5 guy (still blazing fast, but not uniquely so). 6.18. You can see it and time it yourself. He probably has run slower at other times, thus the 70.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 26, 2018 9:17:51 GMT -5
FWIW, I mentioned the 6.18 time to a well-regarded national writer who covers the draft, and he said the times at those showcase events always need to be taken with a grain of salt. The writer, familiar with Brannen, actually scoffed at the suggestion he's an 80 runner.
For now, let's agree he's fast. I promise we'll report back on what we see next month at the Fort.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 26, 2018 12:33:15 GMT -5
I’ve seen 70 put on his speed, and that’s probably about right given his 6.18 60y (for reference, that’s 55 meters; the top national HS track sprinters typically run about 5.80-6.00, or 6.30-6.50 for the 60m which is the current distance used). So, even though he’s a baseball player, he’s just a few ticks behind truly elite (for humans his age, not just baseball players) speed. Track sprinters actually peak at 28-30, so I do think he’s got more speed to grow into. Not to come on here and be 1) pedantic; 2) somewhat off-topic; and 3) a dick (the trifecta—and that’s not even counting the bonus that I likely messed up the formatting when trying to pull only the relevant portions of your post to quote!) in my first post, but there are several mis-statements (or, at least, statements that require some additional information) in this post: First, where did you see that 6.18 60 time for Brannen? That would likely make him the fastest player in baseball. Depending on source, I’ve seen 6.19-6.3 seconds tied to Kenny Loften, Trea Turner, Terrance Gore, and Billy Hamilton. FanGraphs also considers 6.3 speed to be an 80 on the scouting scale (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-explained-the-20-80-scouting-scale/), so either Brannen has run that 6.19 time and the “70” tag is selling his run tool short, or he’s more like a 6.4-6.5 guy (still blazing fast, but not uniquely so). Second, for the sake of accurate comparison (and his is where this starts to get super-pedantic and off-topic—but sorry, I’m a track guy), it’s worth noting that those stats about elite HSers’ 55- and 60-meter times are off on the fast side. Christian Coleman just set the world record in the 60m at 6.34 seconds (http://www.usatf.org/News/Coleman-destroys-WR;-AR-for-Nelvis-at-USATF-Indoor.aspx) and the national high school record for the 55m (which is, as you noted, basically 60 yards) is 6.08 seconds and 6.57 for the 60m (https://www.trackandfieldnews.com/index.php/category-records/475-mens-indoor-high-school-records). Third, and although I don’t know this for a fact, it’s quite likely that those track times and baseball’s 60-yard times are actually timed differently. Record-quality track and field performances are electronically timed (which will make the time slower than hand-timed—the standard conversion is you round up to the nearest tenth of a second and then add .24 seconds to that to go from hand-timed to automatic [http://www.ocmstrackmeet.com/fat-vs-handheld-times.html]) with a clock that starts running when the gun is fired, although track athletes have the benefit of using starting blocks to push off (and also of running in track spikes on a smooth track). Although I don’t know his for sure, baseball players are likely manually timed with a stopwatch that starts on their first motion, although they have the disadvantage of not using starting blocks and running on either dirt or grass. Even with those disadvantages, it’s likely that baseball players 60-yard dash times are likely .15-.2 seconds faster than their track and field 55m dash times would be (that 60 yards is a fraction of a meter short of 55 meters also adds a couple hundredths of a second). Lastly, I don’t think you have the aging curve for speed quite right. While Justin Gatlin is currently breaking the aging curve, all all-time top-10 Men’s 100m times other than Gatlin’s anomalous 9.74 in 2015 (run after returning from his SECOND doping suspension) were run by men between 21-28 years old (http://www.alltime-athletics.com/m_100ok.htm)so I think it’s a fair assumption that elite speed typically peaks a couple/few years younger than you stated, although it surely can vary greatly. Anyway, this all suggests that Brannen probably runs the 60-yard dash in about 6.4-6.5 seconds baseball time and 6.6-6.8 seconds track and field time—which is still very very fast, but is probably .2-.3 slower than the fastest baseball players, and .6-.8 seconds behind truly world-class sprinters (which is insane). Now please feel free to return to your normally scheduled, more baseball-related programming! As for HS times, yeah, those are fast. I was going off the top of my head and probably converted WC elite times not HS (I think I recall indoor nationals being around 6.40). I’ve discussed conversions, hand-time vs FAT/other electronic timing vs plane-break times elsewhere, at great length. The point wasn’t to repeat that, but mention it. Baseball times are hand-timed; Brannen’s is apparently electronic on plane break. We could discuss surface, footwear (pretty sure my old Mizunos are a lot lighter and faster that baseball cleats), etc ad nauseum. But I did that back when Brannen was drafted, so it’s silly to do it again. FWIW, regardless of the difficulties of converting the 6.18 time to a useful track measurement, it was one of the top 2 or 3 time’s out of Perfect Game showcases. There are hundreds, even thousands of prospects who go to those things. Irrespective of a plane-breakstart, the electronic timing should be comparable, much more so than hand-timing. That’s the definition of elite: 3 Z-scores above the mean, or 99.87th%ile. As for speed aging, OK, that may be outdated because it’s from when I was a competitive sprinter (thanks a lot, Carl Lewis), which was more than just a couple of moons ago. But you’re looking at records, not performance through time. That’s like looking at a “ten best pitching seasons” and finding the ages of the players (some of whom may have suffered non-performance related attrition) in those seasons, rather than looking at the ten best players and comparing the courses of their careers. Actually, I’m kind of curious to see those aging curves now. Then again, part of the problem of age-related attrition in track athletes is that T&F doesn’t pay the way other sports do. Hence you have guys like Mr Freeze for the Braves. Anyway, thanks for catching the HS conversions, that’s what I get for going off the top of my head.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 26, 2018 12:39:26 GMT -5
Fwiw, my buddy ran 6.43 in the 55m and I thought 6.00 and under seemed unreasonably fast, but I was way too lazy to look it up. Try to fancy-pants it, and you pay the price. Even Rocky Balboa learned that from Clubber Lange.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 26, 2018 12:44:23 GMT -5
For reference, 6.3 is considered 80 speed.
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Post by sittingstill on Feb 26, 2018 12:57:52 GMT -5
Brannen (and Kervin Suarez) took some extra bunt practice after everyone else went in from BP this morning.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 26, 2018 14:20:45 GMT -5
For reference, 6.3 is considered 80 speed. I’ve seen that before; the issue is that 1) that’s hand-timed and this doesn’t account for reaction time (which adds .24 seconds), 2) The PG time is electronic (more accurate), but probably is on plane-break (meaning he’s in motion, and eliminates the least efficient part of a runner’s time: reaction and initiation of acceleration). So it’s obviously difficult to extrapolate that time to a hand-timed dead-stop 60y. The takeaway should be that he was within the top-3 of all PG testers in that year. That’s probably 2.5-3 standard deviations from the mean, depending on the total number of participants (top 1 to top 0.1%), or probably 2 std dev from the mean if you assume a better average speed of MLBers. Or, 70 speed, since each ten should be a std dev from the mean on the scouting scale. For more perspective, he ranks 6th all-time, 0.07 seconds off the best time. www.perfectgame.org/records/From everything I’ve seen, these are electronic times on plane break. So yes, there may be difficulty comparing to other methods (dead stop hand-times, or T&F where the footwear, surface, etc in addition to dead-stop reaction time). But using a single methodolgy across years, with thousands of subjects, he ranks firmly in the top 0.1%.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 26, 2018 14:23:59 GMT -5
For reference, 6.3 is considered 80 speed. My friend’s time was 55m FAT (photo) timed at an NCAA sanctioned meet. Accounting for 0.24 hand-timing, that’s 6.2. Put him in cleats on a baseball field and yeah, he probably loses a tenth and hand-times a 6.3.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 26, 2018 14:39:36 GMT -5
Fwiw, out of curiousity I looked up Mitchell Shifflet, who set the all-time PG mark with 6.11. This says he ran 6.11 also in the 55m (which is essentially 60y within a few inches), the hundredths meaning that it was electronically timed. www.virginiasports.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/mitchell_shifflett_748251.htmlHis times in the 100m, 200m, and indoor 300m are similarly outstanding. Edit: the top VA HS 55 times don’t list him, so that’s probably a reporting error by the college site. But his 10.66 100m is outstanding if not HS elite (truly elite HSers are running 10.20s or under).
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on May 4, 2018 17:47:55 GMT -5
With 1-6, 3 K performance last night Cole Brannen's K% stands now at whopping 29.2% (35th highest for qualified hitters in the SAL) and it's not like he's sacrifing contact for power: In fact his IsoP is a meager .065 (The 16th worst in the SAL) Needless to say that it's a bad combination. So what's the organisation planning to do? Send him back to florida to rework on his swing/approach (He strikes me as a passive hitter at the plate) and GCL games or Lowell after that? He's still 19 so a lost season isn't that much of a deal.
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