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Given what has happened to Tampa....
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Post by p23w on Feb 21, 2018 16:08:40 GMT -5
At some point during the upcoming season the Red Sox should trade for Chris Archer. The guy deserves to be on a winner. He needs to be reunited with David Price. The question is twofold. You need to beat some other team to the deal and you need to give value. My thought is to offer Groome, Hembree and another pitching prospect either a reliever or a starter. The sooner, the better. The cost will increase come July, and other franchises have deeper farms than do the Red Sox. I would never have ventured this idea until the Tampa front office decided to go stupid. Now I think Archer can be obtained, and would love to join a staff with Sale. Price, Porcello and to have Kimbrell for a closer. In any event it works for me.  |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 21, 2018 16:33:56 GMT -5
At some point during the upcoming season the Red Sox should trade for Chris Archer. The guy deserves to be on a winner. He needs to be reunited with David Price. The question is twofold. You need to beat some other team to the deal and you need to give value. My thought is to offer Groome, Hembree and another pitching prospect either a reliever or a starter. The sooner, the better. The cost will increase come July, and other franchises have deeper farms than do the Red Sox. I would never have ventured this idea until the Tampa front office decided to go stupid. Now I think Archer can be obtained, and would love to join a staff with Sale. Price, Porcello and to have Kimbrell for a closer. In any event it works for me. Consider that the Rays turned down a deal from Milwaukee that would have gotten them young power hitting OF Santana. Honestly I doubt the Sox have the pieces and I'm not even convinced they need Archer. The Red Sox have six viable starters and reasonable depth in AAA. The Red Sox will need young pitchers from their organization at some point to step up in order to keep costs down when the Sox core starts hitting free agency. Groome, right now is a guy with potential who has yet to pitch up to it, Hembree could be a roster casualty crunch and it's possible he is DFA come the end of March. Archer is going to cost at least two of the top 4 of a strong farm system. The Rays aren't giving him away. I think the Red Sox, come July, will need bullpen help more than they'll need rotation help. |
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Post by telson13 on Feb 21, 2018 23:22:47 GMT -5
At some point during the upcoming season the Red Sox should trade for Chris Archer. The guy deserves to be on a winner. He needs to be reunited with David Price. The question is twofold. You need to beat some other team to the deal and you need to give value. My thought is to offer Groome, Hembree and another pitching prospect either a reliever or a starter. The sooner, the better. The cost will increase come July, and other franchises have deeper farms than do the Red Sox. I would never have ventured this idea until the Tampa front office decided to go stupid. Now I think Archer can be obtained, and would love to join a staff with Sale. Price, Porcello and to have Kimbrell for a closer. In any event it works for me. Except TB really hasn’t “gone stupid.” They have a ton of young pitching that’s ready to break in, including high-end guys like Honeywell. Odorizzi was replacement-level last year, and was going to cost over $5M. He’s regressed all over the board the past few years; they obviously didn’t get offered much for him and took the deal they liked. They save that $ and probably will be able to replace his production (and get a couple more wins, really) for league minimum. And Dickerson was a LF-only guy who had two years of control. Cron is a RHH, which they need for platooning reasons, has three years of control, and saves another $5M. It’s TB. They’re cheap, but not stupid. That said, I wouldn’t deal for Archer. This team has five quality starters and some salary concerns coming due. Archer’s salaries are terrific but he’s been just so-so results-wise the past two years and his home park is one of the best pitchers’ parks in the AL. He’s 30 with a high-mileage arm, and he’s going to cost a lot. He’s probably projectable for $75M in excess value on his contract (11-15 WAR over 4 years at a conservative $8M/WAR, minus his 6.2/7.5/9/11 salaries with the options, or $88M-$120M-$34M is $54-$86M in excess value) meaning they’re going to be looking for Groome, Chavis, a high-upside guy like Brannen, and a lottery ticket. I like Archer, but I think this team needs to retain their minor leaguers right now to have salary flexibility come extension time for Sale, Mookie, et al. But it’s definitely a close call for me, because it means no need to extend Pomeranz and they could trade Porcello. |
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Post by bruinsfan94 on Feb 21, 2018 23:58:01 GMT -5
Why do people post stuff stupid stuff? Why would the Rays trade in the divison for a guy at the bottom end of most top 100 list and a relief pitcher? 4 years of archer for 6 of Groome? THINK for a second. You say you need to give value and then you offer up no value. Are you kidding? For the Red Sox to even make a play it would have to take Groome, Chavis, and at least one of Meta or Houck. That might not even do it because a lot of other teams could offer an elite top 20-30 prospect that the Sox just don''t have.
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Post by p23w on Feb 21, 2018 23:59:06 GMT -5
I think Tampa's front office is stupid this year. They trade the face of the franchise, a good defensive 30 HR OFer and piss off their GG CFer and ace pitcher. Given the make up of the RS staff, their questionable durabilty and the teams they have to beat to advance to the WS, I think they desparately need a hard throwing RHSP with nasty stuff. OTOH if we wait till July, the Yanks, 'Stros or even the Tribe can outbid the RS for Archer.... I'd far prefer to have Chris as our number 3 going into the playoffs, then face Archer with Pomeranz or Porcello. This team needs to get over the top and I believe a strong RHSP is needed to seal the deal. I would not trade Chavis in a deal for Archer. I think Hembree can be quite serviceable at the Trop. I think we are working with a 2 year window. If we don't win at least one pennant in the next two years you run the risk loosing talent to opt outs and lessen the probability of signing talent to "team friendly" contracts, a-la Pedroia.
Stupid is as stupid does. Longoria should not have been traded, and Cobb is still out there. Archer is unhappy (as is Kiermayer). The time to do the deal is now.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 22, 2018 9:20:43 GMT -5
Counting on a team to be stupid is a bad basis for trade proposals. Where do you draw the line of how stupid they might be? Trade them Sandoval's dead money and Jeremy Barfield for Archer because they're dumb.
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Post by bruinsfan94 on Feb 22, 2018 11:07:35 GMT -5
The only thing stupid here is this thread. Can you even follow your own logic? If other teams could beat our offer in July, it stands to reason they can beat our offer now . Thats nuts. You wouldn't trade Chavis for Archer? A borderline top 100 prospect for an ace? Nice prospect hugging. When we are talking about guys like Archer, you shouldn't even be bringing up guys like Hembre, there are 28 other teams man. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 22, 2018 11:36:00 GMT -5
At some point during the upcoming season the Red Sox should trade for Chris Archer. The guy deserves to be on a winner. He needs to be reunited with David Price. The question is twofold. You need to beat some other team to the deal and you need to give value. My thought is to offer Groome, Hembree and another pitching prospect either a reliever or a starter. The sooner, the better. The cost will increase come July, and other franchises have deeper farms than do the Red Sox. I would never have ventured this idea until the Tampa front office decided to go stupid. Now I think Archer can be obtained, and would love to join a staff with Sale. Price, Porcello and to have Kimbrell for a closer. In any event it works for me. Except TB really hasn’t “gone stupid.” They have a ton of young pitching that’s ready to break in, including high-end guys like Honeywell. Odorizzi was replacement-level last year, and was going to cost over $5M. He’s regressed all over the board the past few years; they obviously didn’t get offered much for him and took the deal they liked. They save that $ and probably will be able to replace his production (and get a couple more wins, really) for league minimum. And Dickerson was a LF-only guy who had two years of control. Cron is a RHH, which they need for platooning reasons, has three years of control, and saves another $5M. It’s TB. They’re cheap, but not stupid. That said, I wouldn’t deal for Archer. This team has five quality starters and some salary concerns coming due. Archer’s salaries are terrific but he’s been just so-so results-wise the past two years and his home park is one of the best pitchers’ parks in the AL. He’s 30 with a high-mileage arm, and he’s going to cost a lot. He’s probably projectable for $75M in excess value on his contract (11-15 WAR over 4 years at a conservative $8M/WAR, minus his 6.2/7.5/9/11 salaries with the options, or $88M-$120M-$34M is $54-$86M in excess value) meaning they’re going to be looking for Groome, Chavis, a high-upside guy like Brannen, and a lottery ticket. I like Archer, but I think this team needs to retain their minor leaguers right now to have salary flexibility come extension time for Sale, Mookie, et al. But it’s definitely a close call for me, because it means no need to extend Pomeranz and they could trade Porcello. Yea they have. Odorizzi wasn't good in 2017, but was worth 3.6 bwar and 3.0 war in 2015 and 2016. Even at his 2017 levels, given what he did in 2015 and 2016 the return was crazy low. Given the current free agent market and trade market, they should have waited. His value is at an all-time low and the markets are working against them. Just because a team might have a ton of young pitching, doesn't mean they weren't stupid selling crazy low on a player. Dickerson while not as bad, still makes little sense why you move on for like nothing. He's been close to 3 bwar in two of the last 4 years, and was basically an average player in another one of those 4 years. He can play LF and DH. Everyone on this site is upset from moving on from Brentz, well Dickerson is a way better player. I just don't see how Archer costs a ton. He's one of those guys living off one good season in 2015, like you said he plays in a pitcher park also. He has a great contract, but if he's like a 3/4 on a good team and not a front line starter, that contract doesn't matter as much. Not sure how you get that much excess value, because if he's the two war pitcher he's been every year besides 2015, the excess value is like a third of what you are saying. Take him out of Tampa and he might not even give you that unless he goes to another pitcher friendly park. Only way he costs two top 100 guys, a guy like Brannen and a lottery ticket is if he returns to his 2015 level, where he's more of a front line type starter. If they traded him right now the return would be like half that given the current market and his production the last two years. If I had to gamble on Cole or Archer I would take Cole, look at what he was traded for. Cole is also like 3 years younger and has more upside in my opinion. |
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Post by bruinsfan94 on Feb 22, 2018 11:57:07 GMT -5
There are almost no teams in baseball where Archer is the number three, he is the number or two on pretty much every team. Dickerson is an offense first player at a time when power hitting isn't worth as much as it used to be, Archer is a young ace, with a great contract. Cole pitched in the NL, had less control, and everyone panned that move. The Rays are not going to just hand Archer to the Sox cause you want them too. Tons of teams would outbid us for him. Yankees, Twins, Tribe, Dodgers,Nats, Brewers, etc. The sox best prospect are at the bottom of every top 100 list. The Red sox would have to give up Groome, Chavis, and quite a bit more to get him and even then a team with an elite prospect like Soto could still easily beat us.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 22, 2018 12:19:31 GMT -5
Except TB really hasn’t “gone stupid.” They have a ton of young pitching that’s ready to break in, including high-end guys like Honeywell. Odorizzi was replacement-level last year, and was going to cost over $5M. He’s regressed all over the board the past few years; they obviously didn’t get offered much for him and took the deal they liked. They save that $ and probably will be able to replace his production (and get a couple more wins, really) for league minimum. And Dickerson was a LF-only guy who had two years of control. Cron is a RHH, which they need for platooning reasons, has three years of control, and saves another $5M. It’s TB. They’re cheap, but not stupid. That said, I wouldn’t deal for Archer. This team has five quality starters and some salary concerns coming due. Archer’s salaries are terrific but he’s been just so-so results-wise the past two years and his home park is one of the best pitchers’ parks in the AL. He’s 30 with a high-mileage arm, and he’s going to cost a lot. He’s probably projectable for $75M in excess value on his contract (11-15 WAR over 4 years at a conservative $8M/WAR, minus his 6.2/7.5/9/11 salaries with the options, or $88M-$120M-$34M is $54-$86M in excess value) meaning they’re going to be looking for Groome, Chavis, a high-upside guy like Brannen, and a lottery ticket. I like Archer, but I think this team needs to retain their minor leaguers right now to have salary flexibility come extension time for Sale, Mookie, et al. But it’s definitely a close call for me, because it means no need to extend Pomeranz and they could trade Porcello. Yea they have. Odorizzi wasn't good in 2017, but was worth 3.6 bwar and 3.0 war in 2015 and 2016. Even at his 2017 levels, given what he did in 2015 and 2016 the return was crazy low. Given the current free agent market and trade market, they should have waited. His value is at an all-time low and the markets are working against them. Just because a team might have a ton of young pitching, doesn't mean they weren't stupid selling crazy low on a player. Dickerson while not as bad, still makes little sense why you move on for like nothing. He's been close to 3 bwar in two of the last 4 years, and was basically an average player in another one of those 4 years. He can play LF and DH. Everyone on this site is upset from moving on from Brentz, well Dickerson is a way better player. I just don't see how Archer costs a ton. He's one of those guys living off one good season in 2015, like you said he plays in a pitcher park also. He has a great contract, but if he's like a 3/4 on a good team and not a front line starter, that contract doesn't matter as much. Not sure how you get that much excess value, because if he's the two war pitcher he's been every year besides 2015, the excess value is like a third of what you are saying. Take him out of Tampa and he might not even give you that unless he goes to another pitcher friendly park. Only way he costs two top 100 guys, a guy like Brannen and a lottery ticket is if he returns to his 2015 level, where he's more of a front line type starter. If they traded him right now the return would be like half that given the current market and his production the last two years. If I had to gamble on Cole or Archer I would take Cole, look at what he was traded for. Cole is also like 3 years younger and has more upside in my opinion. The difference between Cole and Archer is salary certainty and years of control. Archer has more of both. He’s been worth an average of 4.3 fWAR per season for the past three years and a tick over 4 for four years. A combination of projections has him at 4.5 this year. A reasonable projection would be 4, 3, 2.5 after that (actually probably conservative), which is 14 over four seasons: www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6345&position=PIf you want to use bWAR, yeah, he’s averaged about 2.4. So the average of the averages is still 3.5 (and since bWAR is RA/9 based, it fluctuates a lot more). That’s still roughly a 10-WAR player over four years of control presuming he declines, which there’s a good bet he won’t do until the last year of, or after, his contract. He’s hit 200 IP two years in a row and just missed with 194 before that. Cole missed significant time with injury. Odorizzi’s peripherals have regressed. I guarantee you that they found the best deal they could at this time. They don’t *want* to hold on to him...they want to put Honeywell, Andriese, etc in the rotation with Snell, Faria...they have no *need* for Odorizzi; he was an expensive (to them) luxury. Look at all of the power bats out there trying to find jobs, including Morrison (or Moustakas). Dickerson wasn’t worth his salary to them. They wanted a RH platoon option and Cron fit the bill, for $5M less. Dickerson doesn’t add defensive value...he’s an interchangeable part in today’s market where everyone hits 25 HR. Again, I’m sure they looked at trades before realizing there were zero takers for a guy who makes $6M and does nothing but hit for slightly above league-average power. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 22, 2018 12:25:14 GMT -5
There are almost no teams in baseball where Archer is the number three, he is the number or two on pretty much every team. Dickerson is an offense first player at a time when power hitting isn't worth as much as it used to be, Archer is a young ace, with a great contract. Cole pitched in the NL, had less control, and everyone panned that move. The Rays are not going to just hand Archer to the Sox cause you want them too. Tons of teams would outbid us for him. Yankees, Twins, Tribe, Dodgers,Nats, Brewers, etc. The sox best prospect are at the bottom of every top 100 list. The Red sox would have to give up Groome, Chavis, and quite a bit more to get him and even then a team with an elite prospect like Soto could still easily beat us. Chris Archer is 29 and a half years old, he's not young. Last two years 1.8 and 1.2 bwar, that is ace level for you? There are a ton of teams were he is the #3. Heck last year on the Red Sox he would have rated #5 behind Sale, Pomeranz, ERod, and Price based on bwar. Joe Kelly had a higher war last year. Archer has only had one season that was even close to Ace level that was 2015. Even then that is more like #1 starter than ACE level. You prove my point, you think he's this young ace, when he's not. For some reason people think he's younger and better than he is. BTW I don't want the Red Sox to trade for him. |
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 22, 2018 14:26:45 GMT -5
I guess the thing with Archer is that he underperformed his peripherals last year by quite a lot. Obviously there's a big gap in how you value him if you think his 3.40 FIP is representative or if his 4.07 ERA is closer to the truth. Hence the giant discrepancy between his fWAR (4.6) and bWAR (1.2). In general I like anyone with a K/BB over 4.0 in over 200 innings.
I have no idea what it would take to get him and it's almost impossible for me to believe that another team who wanted him wouldn't be willing and able to beat a package the Red Sox could offer. Just off the top of my head, if I'm the Rays I would take Justus Sheffield and a lottery ticket for Archer over any package the Red Sox could muster.
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Post by p23w on Feb 22, 2018 14:46:44 GMT -5
Counting on a team to be stupid is a bad basis for trade proposals. Where do you draw the line of how stupid they might be? Trade them Sandoval's dead money and Jeremy Barfield for Archer because they're dumb. TB has already shown signs of stupidity. How stupid remains to be seen. The clubhouse is not a happy place, They are most certainly not going to improve on their 80 win season of 2017. The front office appears totally intimidated by the Yankees acquisition of Stanton and the Red Sox signing of JDM. I think those who can't envision this franchise unloading Archer are dim witted. This board talks about being creative. Alright. Think outside the box and make this happen. Archer has a really good track record against NY and HSTN. Those are the teams the RS need to beat. JDM is going to make for some 12-2 games against the likes of the Orioles. He is not going to put us past NY or HSTN. Imagine if Cashman pulls off a deal for Archer. We're very likely screwed. |
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Post by p23w on Feb 22, 2018 14:50:53 GMT -5
There are almost no teams in baseball where Archer is the number three, he is the number or two on pretty much every team. Dickerson is an offense first player at a time when power hitting isn't worth as much as it used to be, Archer is a young ace, with a great contract. Cole pitched in the NL, had less control, and everyone panned that move. The Rays are not going to just hand Archer to the Sox cause you want them too. Tons of teams would outbid us for him. Yankees, Twins, Tribe, Dodgers,Nats, Brewers, etc. The sox best prospect are at the bottom of every top 100 list. The Red sox would have to give up Groome, Chavis, and quite a bit more to get him and even then a team with an elite prospect like Soto could still easily beat us. Houston. Boston. Cleveland. Wake up. Archer is good, not great. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 22, 2018 16:00:24 GMT -5
Chris Archer
2017 Home .641 OPS, 3.26 ERA, 1.133 WHIP, 10 HRs allowed, Road- .780 OPS, 4.97 ERA, 1.396 WHIP 17 HRs allowed
2016 home .617 OPS, 2.65 ERA, 1.127 WHIP, 10 HRs allowed, Road- .786 OPS, 5.44 ERA, 1.359 WHIP 20 HRs allowed
He has underperformed his peripherals for 3 straight years. I don't see that as just bad luck, that is a pattern, just like a pitchers outperforming his Peripherals for 3 straight years. Archer is an ACE in Tampa and a 3/4 on the road. He would get murdered in Yankee Stadium or Fenway Park. I hope the Yankees trade for him! The innings are nice and the strikeouts are great, but Archer isn't an ACE in the AL East outside Tampa. Not since 2015, when he was good at home and away. These should have been prime years, some of his best. I can see him doing better in the NL, his style of pitcher needs a pitcher friendly park that limits HRs. Which is funny with a starter with his strikeout numbers. It's why Fangraph loves him, they love strikeouts, but Archer is unique. High strikeouts doesn't always mean great pitcher.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 22, 2018 16:16:51 GMT -5
Yea they have. Odorizzi wasn't good in 2017, but was worth 3.6 bwar and 3.0 war in 2015 and 2016. Even at his 2017 levels, given what he did in 2015 and 2016 the return was crazy low. Given the current free agent market and trade market, they should have waited. His value is at an all-time low and the markets are working against them. Just because a team might have a ton of young pitching, doesn't mean they weren't stupid selling crazy low on a player. Dickerson while not as bad, still makes little sense why you move on for like nothing. He's been close to 3 bwar in two of the last 4 years, and was basically an average player in another one of those 4 years. He can play LF and DH. Everyone on this site is upset from moving on from Brentz, well Dickerson is a way better player. I just don't see how Archer costs a ton. He's one of those guys living off one good season in 2015, like you said he plays in a pitcher park also. He has a great contract, but if he's like a 3/4 on a good team and not a front line starter, that contract doesn't matter as much. Not sure how you get that much excess value, because if he's the two war pitcher he's been every year besides 2015, the excess value is like a third of what you are saying. Take him out of Tampa and he might not even give you that unless he goes to another pitcher friendly park. Only way he costs two top 100 guys, a guy like Brannen and a lottery ticket is if he returns to his 2015 level, where he's more of a front line type starter. If they traded him right now the return would be like half that given the current market and his production the last two years. If I had to gamble on Cole or Archer I would take Cole, look at what he was traded for. Cole is also like 3 years younger and has more upside in my opinion. The difference between Cole and Archer is salary certainty and years of control. Archer has more of both. He’s been worth an average of 4.3 fWAR per season for the past three years and a tick over 4 for four years. A combination of projections has him at 4.5 this year. A reasonable projection would be 4, 3, 2.5 after that (actually probably conservative), which is 14 over four seasons: www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6345&position=PIf you want to use bWAR, yeah, he’s averaged about 2.4. So the average of the averages is still 3.5 (and since bWAR is RA/9 based, it fluctuates a lot more). That’s still roughly a 10-WAR player over four years of control presuming he declines, which there’s a good bet he won’t do until the last year of, or after, his contract. He’s hit 200 IP two years in a row and just missed with 194 before that. Cole missed significant time with injury. Odorizzi’s peripherals have regressed. I guarantee you that they found the best deal they could at this time. They don’t *want* to hold on to him...they want to put Honeywell, Andriese, etc in the rotation with Snell, Faria...they have no *need* for Odorizzi; he was an expensive (to them) luxury. Look at all of the power bats out there trying to find jobs, including Morrison (or Moustakas). Dickerson wasn’t worth his salary to them. They wanted a RH platoon option and Cron fit the bill, for $5M less. Dickerson doesn’t add defensive value...he’s an interchangeable part in today’s market where everyone hits 25 HR. Again, I’m sure they looked at trades before realizing there were zero takers for a guy who makes $6M and does nothing but hit for slightly above league-average power. Ordorizzi's peripherals went down in his poor 2017, there isn't years of decline. Huge difference. Just remember your take on this, if the Red Sox make a trade like this. You will hate it and slam it. Thinking it's ok to sell low because they have a few young pitchers. Come on with injuries they had plenty of room to keep him in the rotation. Pitchers have bad years all the time. Tampa wanted to do a firesale all at once. So they took best offer, that doesn't make it smart or right. I see no downside to holding onto him till mid-season, not like he could hurt his value. Costs 2.5 million,at that point someone would take him for the peanuts they got for him, even if he was pitching bad. The upside that he returns to his 2015 and 2016 levels would be a huge difference in the prospects they got. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 22, 2018 16:19:57 GMT -5
Counting on a team to be stupid is a bad basis for trade proposals. Where do you draw the line of how stupid they might be? Trade them Sandoval's dead money and Jeremy Barfield for Archer because they're dumb. TB has already shown signs of stupidity. How stupid remains to be seen. The clubhouse is not a happy place, They are most certainly not going to improve on their 80 win season of 2017. The front office appears totally intimidated by the Yankees acquisition of Stanton and the Red Sox signing of JDM. I think those who can't envision this franchise unloading Archer are dim witted. This board talks about being creative. Alright. Think outside the box and make this happen. Archer has a really good track record against NY and HSTN. Those are the teams the RS need to beat. JDM is going to make for some 12-2 games against the likes of the Orioles. He is not going to put us past NY or HSTN. Imagine if Cashman pulls off a deal for Archer. We're very likely screwed. It's not hard to imagine the Yankees dealing for Archer. They're looking for controllable pitching. What would the Sox really have to give TB that the Yankees can't? They have a deeper farm system and more of a real need. I don't think it's the end of the world if the Yankees want to give up a good chunk of their farm system to get Archer. He's good, not great. He'd help the Yankees, but it's not like them getting Kershaw. The Red Sox would be foolish to dump the rest of their farm system for him and let's face, as others have mentioned, their offer can be topped by a lot of teams, and a lot of teams will be seeking pitching and those teams won't be six solid starters deep the way the Red Sox are. The Yankees are more likely going to use their farm system to get a young pitcher because they're going to use their financial muscle to get Machado and/or Harper in the offseason and it's possible NY gets Machado by 7/31 if Andujar and Torres struggle. The Drury acquisition protects them and allows them to dangle Andujar in a deal. |
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 22, 2018 16:22:11 GMT -5
Right. And Tropicana just isn't an extreme park on that sort of level. Archer has been great at home and a disaster away in a way that park effects alone can't really explain. So... what is going on and is it correctable? Is it an approach thing? A comfort thing? I wouldn't pay ace money or trade a potential stud like Torres (or Devers, obviously) to find out, but if I had a top-50 type with some risk like Sheffield? Sure.
I wouldn't advocate the Red Sox trading for him, because they lack the organization flexibility right now. You trade Groome for him, then Bogaerts breaks his leg, and then...? But in a vacuum I think there's value there.
And on the other hand, maybe he's just Javier Vazquez, who puts together a very, very good season here and there (Archer in 2015, Vazquez in 2003) but over time just underperforms what his stuff and peripherals say. But, even then, like Vazquez, Archer has been durably average the last two years, and that has value to a lot of staffs.
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Post by bruinsfan94 on Feb 22, 2018 22:00:22 GMT -5
There are almost no teams in baseball where Archer is the number three, he is the number or two on pretty much every team. Dickerson is an offense first player at a time when power hitting isn't worth as much as it used to be, Archer is a young ace, with a great contract. Cole pitched in the NL, had less control, and everyone panned that move. The Rays are not going to just hand Archer to the Sox cause you want them too. Tons of teams would outbid us for him. Yankees, Twins, Tribe, Dodgers,Nats, Brewers, etc. The sox best prospect are at the bottom of every top 100 list. The Red sox would have to give up Groome, Chavis, and quite a bit more to get him and even then a team with an elite prospect like Soto could still easily beat us. Houston. Boston. Cleveland. Wake up. Archer is good, not great. That is three teams. Also I'm pretty sure Archer would be up there as a number two on all three of those teams. There are 20+ teams he is the clear number 1. |
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Post by bruinsfan94 on Feb 22, 2018 22:01:25 GMT -5
The homerism here is crazy. I mean come on, Archer as the number five on the Red Sox? Put down the kool aid.
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Post by telson13 on Feb 22, 2018 22:10:44 GMT -5
The difference between Cole and Archer is salary certainty and years of control. Archer has more of both. He’s been worth an average of 4.3 fWAR per season for the past three years and a tick over 4 for four years. A combination of projections has him at 4.5 this year. A reasonable projection would be 4, 3, 2.5 after that (actually probably conservative), which is 14 over four seasons: www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6345&position=PIf you want to use bWAR, yeah, he’s averaged about 2.4. So the average of the averages is still 3.5 (and since bWAR is RA/9 based, it fluctuates a lot more). That’s still roughly a 10-WAR player over four years of control presuming he declines, which there’s a good bet he won’t do until the last year of, or after, his contract. He’s hit 200 IP two years in a row and just missed with 194 before that. Cole missed significant time with injury. Odorizzi’s peripherals have regressed. I guarantee you that they found the best deal they could at this time. They don’t *want* to hold on to him...they want to put Honeywell, Andriese, etc in the rotation with Snell, Faria...they have no *need* for Odorizzi; he was an expensive (to them) luxury. Look at all of the power bats out there trying to find jobs, including Morrison (or Moustakas). Dickerson wasn’t worth his salary to them. They wanted a RH platoon option and Cron fit the bill, for $5M less. Dickerson doesn’t add defensive value...he’s an interchangeable part in today’s market where everyone hits 25 HR. Again, I’m sure they looked at trades before realizing there were zero takers for a guy who makes $6M and does nothing but hit for slightly above league-average power. Ordorizzi's peripherals went down in his poor 2017, there isn't years of decline. Huge difference. Just remember your take on this, if the Red Sox make a trade like this. You will hate it and slam it. Thinking it's ok to sell low because they have a few young pitchers. Come on with injuries they had plenty of room to keep him in the rotation. Pitchers have bad years all the time. Tampa wanted to do a firesale all at once. So they took best offer, that doesn't make it smart or right. I see no downside to holding onto him till mid-season, not like he could hurt his value. Costs 2.5 million,at that point someone would take him for the peanuts they got for him, even if he was pitching bad. The upside that he returns to his 2015 and 2016 levels would be a huge difference in the prospects they got. TB is a very different team with very different payroll limitations. I’m not saying that holding onto him doesn’t have merit, I’m saying that their management team made a pair of reasonable cost-cutting moves for their circumstances. I didn’t say it was smart or right, I said I didn’t think it was stupid. |
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 22, 2018 22:11:01 GMT -5
Again... I think part of the reason there's a big discrepancy about where you'd slot Archer in a rotation is that there is a wide range of legitimate opinions of how good he is. If you think he's as good as his peripherals and stuff, he's a legit #2. If you think the last 400 innings of him being a 4.00 ERA guy are what he is, then he's a 3/4. Neither are crazy opinions.
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Post by p23w on Feb 23, 2018 18:09:45 GMT -5
Look at the match ups. Not the aggregate stats when aligning your rotation in the playoffs. If the RS face the Yankees Archer would start game #3 (on the road) and game #2 at the Fens. He would probably start game #3 against HSTN, home or away. If Archer is a Yankee he starts game #4. home or away, against the RS and game #2 (probably) against HSTN. Think about it. Sabathia has owned the RS in recent years. The RS have owned Archer. Archer has owned HSTN, and pitched well against NY. Given that TB is tanking for 2018 and their top pitching prospect is out for two years, they could be sold on Groome who could be only two years away. For me Archer is not the ideal RHSP I covet for the RS, but he is the best available who sports good numbers against the two teams that I believe the RS will have to go through to get to the WS. With my prediction track record, we'll probably face Cleveland, who owns Archer.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 23, 2018 18:32:42 GMT -5
Look at the match ups. Not the aggregate stats when aligning your rotation in the playoffs. If the RS face the Yankees Archer would start game #3 (on the road) and game #2 at the Fens. He would probably start game #3 against HSTN, home or away. If Archer is a Yankee he starts game #4. home or away, against the RS and game #2 (probably) against HSTN. Think about it. Sabathia has owned the RS in recent years. The RS have owned Archer. Archer has owned HSTN, and pitched well against NY. Given that TB is tanking for 2018 and their top pitching prospect is out for two years, they could be sold on Groome who could be only two years away. For me Archer is not the ideal RHSP I covet for the RS, but he is the best available who sports good numbers against the two teams that I believe the RS will have to go through to get to the WS. With my prediction track record, we'll probably face Cleveland, who owns Archer. Derek Lowe was 8-10 with an ERA north of 6 lifetime against the Yankees when he took the mound for Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS against NY. He pitched 6 one hit innings. The point is that I don't think those things matter in a SSS type of situation. It doesn't matter because a) it makes no sense for the Sox to give up their thin farm system when you consider the Sox have six viable starter already, and b) you say Archer should start Game 3, but if Sale and Price are Sale and Price, they're your game 1 and 2 starters, and if Porcello bounces back somewhat, he's as good an option as Archer, or if Pomeranz pitches as well as last season, he's a better option for Game 3, or if Wright gets a shot and pitches like he did before getting injured or E-Rod, with a healthy knee, continues the progression he was making pre-injury, you have viable options for Game 4. TB will get a better offer by somebody with a better farm system than the Sox (which could be NY), but on a really good team he's a #3/4, but not necessarily better than what the Red Sox already have. The Archer thing makes no sense when you consider that other teams have more to offer, the Red Sox really don't have a glaring need, and a thin farm system and are already bumping up near the 237 million mark. The Red Sox are not getting Archer, simply put, and it's alright. |
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Post by jiant2520 on Feb 23, 2018 20:10:58 GMT -5
Hmmm.... off the top of my head.
Kershaw, Kluber, Sale, Scherzer, Strasburg, Ray, Severino, Carrasco, Verlander, Greinke, Arrieta, Darvish, deGrom, Syndergaard, Gonzalez, Fuller, Bumgarner, Quintana, Martinez, Price, Pomeranz, Lester, Cueto Gray, Stroman, Samardzija, Hendricks.
Here are 27 names who may be better than Archer... who else? These 27 names are on like 17 teams, which leaves about a dozen teams not represented... Archer, in my opinion could be their #1. I am not convince all these names are better than Archer either, but I am sure I missed a few others too.
I think Archer is def a top 30 pitcher which puts him as a #2 on a good team and a #1 on a bad team. Some teams he may be a #3.
His contract is very team friendly, which increases the asking price.
All said, the Sox should keep their prospects for now... SP is not that much of a need right now.
In my opinion of course.
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