Pillow Contracts

Unless there's a major bargain (for the bullpen) to be had, they're better off waiting to see what they need come July 31st. Injuries happen. Unanticipated downturns in productivity happen - ie. remember the Sox signing Tony Clark in 2002 thinking he'd be able to bop 30 homers for them? Instead he was so bad he was below replacement level. That kind of thing.

Better to have the flexibility to assess what you need when you need it versus having nothing left to spend in July when the problems are more obvious.

Besides in July you open up talent from expiring contracts via trades, guys who are not free agents at the moment, which increases your possibilities of fixing what ails you when it's later in the season.

The Sox will stand pat for now. Dombrowski has said as much.

You might get Koji for less than half of that. I wouldn't dump Workman though - he does have options. I would get rid of Hembree and not think twice.

I would not spend $5 million on Koji. That would put them right at the cap with no space to do anything in July.

I'd pay him $2 million maybe - but would prefer $1 million with incentives to bring it up to $2 million, but keep in mind that Koji is nowhere near what he was and he doesn't have a ton of margin for error.

The Sox are well-stocked, overstocked really, in right handed relief pitchers. The commodity is over-priced, and they have enough talent going forward - more than enough once Thornburg shows up and he seems to be making good progress. The idea behind picking up expensive players who are largely redundant escapes me. It's a lousy use of resources for a team that doesn't need it. They might be able to make use of another left-handed specialist, and they seem to be rooting around for just that. But why blow your cash on someone you don't need? Just because the guy is out there? That doesn't make any sense.

The Sox have already added 35 million dollars on top of their payroll from last year, and that doesn't even include the tax hit they're going to get for blowing past the luxury tax threshold. They shouldn't go past the 237 unless the team loses a big arm in the middle of the year like Price or Sale to injury. It isn't worth it. The Sox have plenty of bullpen depth if one or multiple guys fail out of the bullpen.

I kind of see things along the same lines. I think Holland had identifiable reasons for his period of underperformance beyond the scope of the field. He provides a second very good to potentially outstanding arm. He would help shorten games and take some stress off of the starters, who either wear down (Sale), are coming off of injury (Price, Rodriguez, and Wright), are durable but unpredictable in performance (Porcello), or very good but inefficient (Pomeranz). I agree that it’s unlikely, but I think he’d be a great addition.

My biggest reason for taking a shot on him (and I think you’re dead-on in terms of the money/go for it attitude; dropping from pick 25 to 35 isn’t catastrophic to me, although there’s the bonus alottment issue to consider) is that RHRP *are* overvalued. There’s a clear overexpenditure history in recent years on deadline closers. So unless he really struggles, the Sox can flip him for likely a top-50 prospect and another quality young player in the 150 range, plus maybe a lottery ticket, depending on how he’s performing, and how deep the rest of the ‘pen looks. He provides first-half insurance for Smith and Thornburg, and if they look good, he can readily be moved. If not, he's a key asset for the playoffs. Workman can be stashed and Maddox given a little time to prove himself in AAA. I think Hembree’s underrated and underperformed his peripherals in some ways last year, but in lieu of moving Holland, he or Kelly (who’s got control left too) would be an attractive big arm for a team needing one that’s maybe reticent to give up much for a 3-month rental. On an incentive-laden 1+1 option, Holland would also provide Kimbrel insurance/bargaining position strength over the winter.

Idk, I really don’t like the idea of going over the $237M cap, but maybe they get creative and shed some salary (Porcello? Maybe Hanley?) now or at the deadline. Or maybe they bite the bullet figuring they’re in an all-or-nothing position. I do think that there’s a clear precedent for the value of further strengthening an area of depth (Cashman’s trade for Chapman) as a means to stock your minor league system.

Trading Porcello probably makes you worse unless you sign Cobb, and then you're wasting draft picks tied to compensation. No one is taking Hanley.

I'm all against a Holland signing. You have 4 arms that are capable of setting up Kimbrel very soon in Thornburg, Barnes, Kelly, and Smith. Even if half of those arms don't pan out (due ineffectiveness or injury), you're still in great shape and still have two other options there.

You have 5 million to spend at the deadline for a reliever if worst comes to worst and no one steps up in the majors or minors in that time to set up Kimbrel.

FWIW, the Rockies offered Holland the same deal as Davis (or close to it) before they moved on to Davis. Holland turned that offer down. At least that is what's being reported-

www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/03/market-notes-upton-archer-realmuto-holland-lynn.html