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Post by dmaineah on Mar 3, 2018 11:00:02 GMT -5
I'd like to hear what people think the batting line up should be. Not what you think the Sox/Cora will make it be. Assuming a defensive lineup of; Vazquez, Hanley. Nunez, Devers, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Betts, JBJ,& J.D. as the DH I would like to see a line up of; Nunez Betts Benintendi J.D. Devers Hanley Bogaerts JBJ Vazquez
Pedroia bats lead off when he returns
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 3, 2018 11:56:46 GMT -5
Leading off Nunez is crazy IMO. He's the worst OBP guy besides the catchers and bench guys, basically.
Bogaerts JDM Benintendi Hanley Betts Devers JBJ Nunes Vazquez
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Post by dmaineah on Mar 3, 2018 12:10:34 GMT -5
Leading off Nunez is crazy IMO. He's the worst OBP guy besides the catchers and bench guys, basically. Bogaerts JDM Benintendi Hanley Betts Devers JBJ Nunes Vazquez 2017 Boston Red Sox (Overall) Batter Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS David Price Bos 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000 Chase d'Arnaud Bos 2 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000 Blake Swihart Bos 6 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 0.200 0.429 0.200 0.629 Dustin Pedroia Bos 105 406 46 119 19 0 7 62 4 3 49 48 0.293 0.369 0.392 0.760 Tzu-Wei Lin Bos 25 56 7 15 0 2 0 2 1 1 9 17 0.268 0.369 0.339 0.709 Eduardo Nunez Bos 38 165 23 53 12 0 8 27 6 2 6 25 0.321 0.353 0.539 0.892 Andrew Benintendi Bos 151 573 84 155 26 1 20 90 20 5 70 112 0.271 0.352 0.424 0.776 Mookie Betts Bos 153 628 101 166 46 2 24 102 26 3 77 79 0.264 0.344 0.459 0.803 Xander Bogaerts Bos 148 571 94 156 32 6 10 62 15 1 56 116 0.273 0.343 0.403 0.746 Rafael Devers Bos 58 222 34 63 14 0 10 30 3 1 18 57 0.284 0.338 0.482 0.819 Chris Sale Bos 1 3 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.333 0.333 0.667 1.000 Christian Vazquez Bos 99 324 43 94 18 2 5 32 7 2 17 64 0.290 0.330 0.404 0.735 Mitch Moreland Bos 149 508 73 125 34 0 22 79 0 1 57 120 0.246 0.326 0.443 0.769 Sam Travis Bos 33 76 13 20 6 0 0 1 1 0 6 23 0.263 0.325 0.342 0.667 Jackie Bradley Bos 133 482 58 118 19 3 17 63 8 3 48 124 0.245 0.323 0.402 0.726 Chris Young Bos 90 243 30 57 12 2 7 25 3 2 30 55 0.235 0.322 0.387 0.709 Hanley Ramirez Bos 133 496 58 120 24 0 23 62 1 3 51 116 0.242 0.320 0.429 0.750 Brock Holt Bos 64 140 20 28 6 0 0 7 2 1 19 34 0.200 0.305 0.243 0.548 Marco Hernandez Bos 21 58 7 16 3 0 0 2 0 1 1 15 0.276 0.300 0.328 0.628 Josh Rutledge Bos 37 107 10 24 2 1 0 9 1 0 9 31 0.224 0.297 0.262 0.558 Sandy Leon Bos 85 271 32 61 14 0 7 39 0 0 25 74 0.225 0.290 0.354 0.644 Rajai Davis Bos 17 36 7 9 2 0 0 2 3 1 1 13 0.250 0.289 0.306 0.595 Pablo Sandoval Bos 32 99 10 21 2 0 4 12 0 1 8 24 0.212 0.269 0.354 0.622 Deven Marrero Bos 71 171 32 36 9 0 4 27 5 0 12 61 0.211 0.259 0.333 0.593 Steve Selsky Bos 8 9 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0.111 0.111 0.222 0.333
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 3, 2018 12:26:04 GMT -5
Nunez' career OBP is .320. His walk rate with the Red Sox was 3.5%. If you think he's normally a .320 hitter, then I guess his OBP would be passable, but most of the time, you don't expect 30 year olds to be far better than their career averages for long.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 3, 2018 14:24:04 GMT -5
I like:
Pedroia 2b Betts RF Benintendi LF Martinez DH Ramirez 1b Devers 3b Bogaerts SS Vazquez C Bradley CF
Hoping eventually at some point later in the year it's:
Pedroia 2b Betts RF Benintendi LF Martinez DH Devers 3b Ramirez 1b Bradley CF Bogaerts SS Swihart C
And yes, leading off Nunez makes very little sense, unless you're planning on him hitting .330. Demainer, why would you use a small sample size of ABs rather than going over the past few years? He's a .320 OBP type of guy who doesn't walk. Makes very little sense to bat him leadoff.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 3, 2018 14:37:22 GMT -5
Betts Bogaerts Benintendi Martinez Ramirez Devers Nunez Vazquez Bradley
Slip Pedroia in for Nunez when he comes back.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 3, 2018 15:03:12 GMT -5
Betts Benintendi Xander JDM Devers Hanley JBJ Vazquez Nunez
When Pedrioa comes back- Betts Benintendi Pedrioa JDM Devers Xander JBJ Hanley Vazquez
Flip Xander for Pedrioa if Xander is white hot with the bat.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,972
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Post by jimoh on Mar 3, 2018 15:26:00 GMT -5
Nunez' career OBP is .320. His walk rate with the Red Sox was 3.5%. If you think he's normally a .320 hitter, then I guess his OBP would be passable, but most of the time, you don't expect 30 year olds to be far better than their career averages for long. If his career .OBP is .320, then he's been better than his career average the last three years: .327, .325, .341.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 3, 2018 15:29:59 GMT -5
Nunez' career OBP is .320. His walk rate with the Red Sox was 3.5%. If you think he's normally a .320 hitter, then I guess his OBP would be passable, but most of the time, you don't expect 30 year olds to be far better than their career averages for long. If his career .OBP is .320, then he's been better than his career average the last three years: .327, .325, .341. It's never going to be good enough to lead off with a 3.5% walk rate.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,972
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Post by jimoh on Mar 3, 2018 16:36:28 GMT -5
If his career .OBP is .320, then he's been better than his career average the last three years: .327, .325, .341. It's never going to be good enough to lead off with a 3.5% walk rate. Yeah, but did you actually say to yourself "If I quote his lifetime numbers it will look even worse than if I quote the last three years?" That's what I was commenting on.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 3, 2018 17:30:32 GMT -5
Betts Bogaerts Benintendi Martinez Ramirez Devers Nunez Vazquez Bradley Slip Pedroia in for Nunez when he comes back. I second this order and I have to say that it has the makings of a very productive offense!!
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 3, 2018 17:51:15 GMT -5
It's never going to be good enough to lead off with a 3.5% walk rate. Yeah, but did you actually say to yourself "If I quote his lifetime numbers it will look even worse than if I quote the last three years?" That's what I was commenting on. No, it was just easier to type one number so I didn't bother. If he made a meaningful change in the last 3 years, I would have looked at that. It was mainly a BABIP blip last season that increased his OBP significantly over his career OBP. He did also cut his k rate which helped.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 3, 2018 18:41:42 GMT -5
Leading off Nunez is crazy IMO. He's the worst OBP guy besides the catchers and bench guys, basically. Bogaerts JDM Benintendi Hanley Betts Devers JBJ Nunes Vazquez 2017 Boston Red Sox (Overall) Batter Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS David Price Bos 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000 Chase d'Arnaud Bos 2 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000 Blake Swihart Bos 6 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 0.200 0.429 0.200 0.629 Dustin Pedroia Bos 105 406 46 119 19 0 7 62 4 3 49 48 0.293 0.369 0.392 0.760 Tzu-Wei Lin Bos 25 56 7 15 0 2 0 2 1 1 9 17 0.268 0.369 0.339 0.709 ... ... ... I'm looking at projections, which have Nunes closer to a .330 OBP.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 3, 2018 19:04:54 GMT -5
Well, let's look at some projections. Steamer:
Betts .299/.370/.516 Bogaerts .289/.353/.443 Benintendi .286/.360/.464 JDM .285/.356/.554 Ramirez .268/.342/.477 Devers .285/.337/.482 Nunez .295/.332/.444 Vazquez .263/.316/.379 / Leon .234/.300/.357 Bradley .259/.339/.446
Pedroia .288/.358/.413 Moreland .257/.328/.458
To me, the top 4 (in some order) is really clear, and these projections back that up. I'm also a bit bullish on Bogaerts and think health plus new coaching could really help him. Maybe flip Nunez and Devers to let the latter drive him around the bases?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 3, 2018 20:52:24 GMT -5
Betts .298/.366/.505 Benintendi .284/.357/.460 Bogaerts .287/.350/.439 JDM .287/.355/.575 Devers .279/.330/.484 Ramirez .265/.342/.460 /Moreland .255/.324/.445 Nunez .291/.325/.435 /Pedroia .286/.354/.403 Bradley .257/.335/.440 Vazquez .259/.311/.371 / Leon .237/.302/.364
I'm assuming Moreland will get at least half the at-bats against RHP.
(Stats are a combination of zips and streamers)
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Post by drive7 on Mar 3, 2018 22:21:38 GMT -5
Start of the year off with Betts Benintendi JDM Devers HanRam Bogaerts Nunez Vazquez JBJ
I hope to see either Pedroia, HanRam, or Bogaerts play well enough to bat in the 2 or 3 spot. Anyway you put it I have high hopes for this lineup. I think they can develop a very good rhythm with this group of guys (starters and bench).
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Post by 75tillnow on Mar 3, 2018 23:26:11 GMT -5
Great to see a line-up blog --thanks to the mods!
Not trying to be a party pooper here. But the end what "we" think matters not. What has the "brass" (Cora) said? As far as I have been able to find (and if anyone has found otherwise by all means) what we have is Betts/Benny/HR (or so Cora). I suppose things change. But that being said (by Cora) then how could not JD and Devers be 4-5? So what we do not know is 6-9. I'm trying to guess what Cora will do here. He's on record as saying betts/benny/bogey/jbj could be 20/20 guys. That's sounds to me like a running/pressure game. Nunez has the best BA (at .394, at least last year) with those in scoring position of anyone left on the 6-9. So I'm making an educated guess here that its Bogey/Jbj/Nunez/Vaz
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 3, 2018 23:33:01 GMT -5
Start of the year off with Betts Benintendi JDM Devers HanRam Bogaerts Nunez Vazquez JBJ I hope to see either Pedroia, HanRam, or Bogaerts play well enough to bat in the 2 or 3 spot. Anyway you put it I have high hopes for this lineup. I think they can develop a very good rhythm with this group of guys (starters and bench). Rhythm is a very important thing that metrics doesn't measure!! Cora and early success will play a big part in developing that good feeling in the clubhouse that we all know is important. It seems to me that Betts and Xander are ready to take that responsibility on for the young core.
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Post by Bogey2Short on Mar 4, 2018 0:02:56 GMT -5
Benintendi Betts Devers JDM Hanley Bogey JBJ Swihart/VAZ Nunez
After pedey come back: Pedey Betts Benintendi JDM Devers Hanley Bogey JBJ Swihard
my 2cents on some things
Bogey is a terrible choice at the 2 hole imo, since he hits a crap ton of ground balls. DP machine I like JDM at 4 instead of 2 or 3, since this lets him A: get peeps on base in front of him, and B lead off an inning instead of hitting with 2 outs with no one on if he was #3
once pedey comes back, that lineup looks really deep imo! super excited!
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Mar 4, 2018 11:32:19 GMT -5
Start of the year off with Betts Benintendi JDM Devers HanRam Bogaerts Nunez Vazquez JBJ I hope to see either Pedroia, HanRam, or Bogaerts play well enough to bat in the 2 or 3 spot. Anyway you put it I have high hopes for this lineup. I think they can develop a very good rhythm with this group of guys (starters and bench). Rhythm is a very important thing that metrics doesn't measure!! Cora and early success will play a big part in developing that good feeling in the clubhouse that we all know is important. It seems to me that Betts and Xander are ready to take that responsibility on for the young core. What does that last sentence mean? When you say "it seems", what exactly seems and what responsibilities would these be?
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Post by soxjim on Mar 4, 2018 12:08:45 GMT -5
I like drive7's lineup. But I don't understand any of the conversation regarding "rhythm."
Betts Benintendi JDM Devers HanRam Bogaerts Nunez Vazquez JBJ
But am 50-50 regarding Hanley or Xander.
And when Pedey comes back, I'd have him 9. I like having 9-Pedey, 1-Betts, 2-Beni, 3-JDM.
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 4, 2018 12:46:52 GMT -5
Rhythm is a very important thing that metrics doesn't measure!! Cora and early success will play a big part in developing that good feeling in the clubhouse that we all know is important. It seems to me that Betts and Xander are ready to take that responsibility on for the young core. What does that last sentence mean? When you say "it seems", what exactly seems and what responsibilities would these be? Just that from what I have been reading "it seems" like they are taking a more active role in clubhouse leadership this year. I might be stretching it a little but "it seems" that this team has a young core that needs to take the step from being quiet foot soldiers who watch and listen to being leaders in their own right. Betts and Pedroia have said as much. This is just one example of what has been said and written. www.pressherald.com/2018/02/16/sox-need-betts-to-become-leader/
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 4, 2018 12:57:03 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 4, 2018 16:07:58 GMT -5
I find all these lineups that put Devers ahead of Bogaerts interesting.
SSS, but guess which September line belongs to which player?
0.284/0.393/0.411 0.278/0.314/0.412
For me, take the pressure off of Devers and hit him lower, letting him work his way up. It's easy to forget, but Devers faded a decent amount after his first month in the bigs: .241/.290/.352 in his final 155 plate appearances from 8/20 onward. His season numbers look great because the full sample size is small enough that his insane first month or so (.364/.424/.727 with 8 HR in 85 PA from 7/25 to 8/19, with 5 HR in the last 6 games of that stretch) pulls the whole line up. He did start to figure things back out in the last week or two, which is great and why his September line is better than the line including the end of August. But again, it's not like he came up and hit continuously for 2 months to end the year - he had, and likely will continue having, the expected ups and downs.
Let him continue to work through MLB pitching in like the 6 or 7 hole. There's no reason to rush Devers up to the cleanup spot or something. And if he comes out and rakes, beautiful.
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Post by jmei on Mar 4, 2018 19:21:38 GMT -5
All three of ZiPS, Steamer, and Fangraphs' fan crowdsourcing have Devers projected to be a better hitter than Bogaerts next year (albeit by a small margin). On the basis of thinking that Devers will be the better hitter next year, plus the fact that for L/R balance reasons, you'd want a left-handed hitter hitting fifth or sixth, it seems perfectly reasonable to hit Devers ahead of Bogaerts.
Plus, I've always thought the "hit a guy artificially low in the order to take the pressure off him" narrative to be pretty meh. If hitting seventh as opposed to fifth has a material effect on a player's performance, I'm not I'm confident in his long-term makeup anyways.
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