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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Mar 4, 2018 20:19:56 GMT -5
Plus, I've always thought the "hit a guy artificially low in the order to take the pressure off him" narrative to be pretty meh. If hitting seventh as opposed to fifth has a material effect on a player's performance, I'm not I'm confident in his long-term makeup anyways. Example- Will Middlebrooks
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 4, 2018 22:08:36 GMT -5
Fair. As I've said on Twitter, I'm bullish on Bogaerts for reasons projections systems wouldn't pick up, such as that I think he's the kind of player who might respond well to a new coaching staff.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 4, 2018 22:56:08 GMT -5
Fair. As I've said on Twitter, I'm bullish on Bogaerts for reasons projections systems wouldn't pick up, such as that I think he's the kind of player who might respond well to a new coaching staff. I think Bogaerts is gonna break out this year.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 4, 2018 23:29:17 GMT -5
Fair. As I've said on Twitter, I'm bullish on Bogaerts for reasons projections systems wouldn't pick up, such as that I think he's the kind of player who might respond well to a new coaching staff. It's hard to know how badly he was hurt last year, but the numbers say he struggled to push through it: Apr 3 - Jun 14: .325/.377/.457 Jun 15 - Sep 30: .235/.319/.363 A stark difference, so yes, if we get the pre-injury Bogaerts that's a borderline all-star. Here's hoping that his health, the new staff, the extra firepower in the lineup - all of it comes together for him.
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Post by sarasoxer on Mar 4, 2018 23:54:56 GMT -5
Fair. As I've said on Twitter, I'm bullish on Bogaerts for reasons projections systems wouldn't pick up, such as that I think he's the kind of player who might respond well to a new coaching staff. It's hard to know how badly he was hurt last year, but the numbers say he struggled to push through it: Apr 3 - Jun 14: .325/.377/.457 Jun 15 - Sep 30: .235/.319/.363 A stark difference, so yes, if we get the pre-injury Bogaerts that's a borderline all-star. Here's hoping that his health, the new staff, the extra firepower in the lineup - all of it comes together for him. True...We don't know the extent/impact of injury last year. But Bogaerts has always bent at the waist on pitches middle-away....fishing. IMO doing so excludes use of his hips and lower body to drive the ball resulting in slaps to the right side. On pitches inside corner or even off the plate inside, he is forced to remain more upright and turn the core. We saw a number of his 2016 dingers come from turning on those pitches. I have mentioned that over a couple of years. Yesterday he did not bend as much on a middle-away pitch and actually drove it to right center. It's not that he is or should be more upright at address, but that he not bend his torso as the pitch is delivered. Clearly someone has been working with him. As big and strong as he is and with very good bat to ball, he could turn into a 25 hr guy.
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Post by soxjim on Mar 5, 2018 0:14:35 GMT -5
I had Devers at 4 ahead of Xander (and Hanley). Until Xander shows power, I can't say to the start the season he's a cleanup hitter. And I don't have Xander at 3 because his batting average/obp has been pretty good but without the power I don't like seeing him in any of the top 3. If he shows he can hit- sure. So I prefer to wait and see. As for Devers - as jmei says the projections have Devers slightly ahead. For me it's all about the power- and I want JDM hitting 3rd. Until Hanley or Xander show something, I dislike the bet that I think Cora is going to place early in the season with either. The below 1st link from Devers puts him in incredible company. And ofc the other link showing the bat speed and adjustments.To start the season I'm not betting against Devers from the ability to produce power. Thus I think he can be okay at 4. That quote below from the 1st link is too hard for me to ignore. I've got to put him high in the batting order until others who have had prior down years prove to be better. Than go ahead and re-shuffle the order. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-case-for-rafael-devers/"Of the 43 different 20-year-olds who’ve started their year in Double-A, only two have hit better than Devers is hitting right now. And those two spent their summer punishing major-league pitching." www.fangraphs.com/blogs/we-need-to-talk-about-rafael-devers/
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Post by jiant2520 on Mar 5, 2018 4:00:21 GMT -5
I'd go:
Betts Benny Martinez Devers Bogey Ramirez/Moreland Nunez/Pedroia Vazquez Bradley
Not opposed to hitting Pedey 2 and pushing the rest down a spot.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 5, 2018 9:18:22 GMT -5
I did my lineup(s) already when Pedroia comes back, but as they are currently constituted, I'd go with this lineup:
Betts RF Benintendi LF Bogaerts SS (And yes, I do think Bogaerts is the most likely player in this lineup to "Break out" as well) Martinez DH Devers 3b Ramirez 1b Nunez 2b Bradley CF Vazquez C
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Post by mattpicard on Mar 5, 2018 9:33:08 GMT -5
RF Betts LF Benintendi 1B Ramirez DH Martinez 3B Devers SS Bogaerts 2B Nunez/Pedroia C Vazquez/Swihart CF Bradley Betts-Benintendi at the top could be elite -- I don't want Nunez in either spot. Love JDM cleanup, as opposed to third. And I think Hanley could really excel hitting between those guys, and with health. But for when Moreland plays, you'd have to do some scrambling -- perhaps bringing Bogaerts up to the three spot and putting Moreland 6th or 7th. Not ideal to have to shuffle the core of your lineup like that, but not a big deal either.
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Post by Coreno on Mar 5, 2018 9:33:18 GMT -5
Since I've been following this thread without giving actual input for a while.
Mookie AB Hanley JDM Devers Xander JBJ Vazquez Nunez
ADD: Matt posted his apparently seconds before me and is pretty much right where I am on a lot of fronts. I like Nunez 9th though, which is something I've seen only a few on board with. I think his aggressiveness would play well in front of Betts. Kind of works as a compromise between those that want him at the top of the order and those who don't want his unimpressive OBP and walk rate up top.
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Post by rafael on Mar 5, 2018 18:33:41 GMT -5
Before Pedey comes back:
Bogaerts Benintendi Betts JDM Hanley/Moreland Devers Nuñez Vazquez JBJ
After Pedey comes back, there are two scenarios. If Bogaerts is raking, Pedroia hits 7th. If he isn't, then Pedey gets the leadoff spot and Bogaerts slides to 7th in the lineup.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Mar 5, 2018 20:38:21 GMT -5
Fair. As I've said on Twitter, I'm bullish on Bogaerts for reasons projections systems wouldn't pick up, such as that I think he's the kind of player who might respond well to a new coaching staff. It's hard to know how badly he was hurt last year, but the numbers say he struggled to push through it: Apr 3 - Jun 14: .325/.377/.457 Jun 15 - Sep 30: .235/.319/.363 A stark difference, so yes, if we get the pre-injury Bogaerts that's a borderline all-star. Here's hoping that his health, the new staff, the extra firepower in the lineup - all of it comes together for him. If you ever use the custom rolling average graphs at Fangraphs (you should, they're cool), you can almost see to the day when he gets injured. Batted ball data turns out to be a really good tool for looking at player injuries, it's shocking how clearly the data can reflect health sometimes.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Mar 5, 2018 21:44:41 GMT -5
Fair. As I've said on Twitter, I'm bullish on Bogaerts for reasons projections systems wouldn't pick up, such as that I think he's the kind of player who might respond well to a new coaching staff. There are reports that Xander is working on his launch angle and he had his first down year out of 3 so he'd be ideal to pick as a bounce back player.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Mar 6, 2018 22:23:36 GMT -5
One line-up "mistake" I've seen is people listing the "worst" batter ninth. The ninth batter is the batter that precedes the first batter so it make alot more sense to bat your second best or even your best batter from the bottom third as the ninth hitter.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 6, 2018 22:57:26 GMT -5
It's hard to know how badly he was hurt last year, but the numbers say he struggled to push through it: Apr 3 - Jun 14: .325/.377/.457 Jun 15 - Sep 30: .235/.319/.363 A stark difference, so yes, if we get the pre-injury Bogaerts that's a borderline all-star. Here's hoping that his health, the new staff, the extra firepower in the lineup - all of it comes together for him. If you ever use the custom rolling average graphs at Fangraphs (you should, they're cool), you can almost see to the day when he gets injured. Batted ball data turns out to be a really good tool for looking at player injuries, it's shocking how clearly the data can reflect health sometimes. That is very cool, I'd not used that before. It is a giveaway and it makes it clear he fell off a cliff for a good two months or so. We never heard a peep out of him, though. Hope all the bad luck is behind him for a while.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Mar 7, 2018 18:52:51 GMT -5
What's weird with those dates is when Bogaerts was hitting well to start the year he had a .268 expected-wOBA with a .383 BABIP, 1% barreled balls. He was hitting the ball like garbage but had a .366 wOBA outcome.
After this injury he was still hitting the ball poorly, .292 expected-wOBA, but the results were not as fortunate, .306 wOBA, .280 BABIP, 2% barreled balls.
He needs to make better contact, healthy or not.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 7, 2018 19:04:05 GMT -5
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Post by mandelbro on Mar 8, 2018 11:27:54 GMT -5
1-2 is Betts-Benintendi
4-5 is Martinez-Devers
3, 6, and 7 are Bogaerts, Pedroia and Ramirez, in some order that depends on whose 2017 season was a fluke and whose wasn't.
8-9 is catcher-JBJ
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,925
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 11, 2018 3:33:27 GMT -5
I've been meaning to write up the method for a while now, so now's a good time.
What makes constructing the optimum batting order so much fun is that you have a whole bunch of rules of thumb which inevitably conflict with one anther.
1. Quality. Ideally, your hitters hit, best to worst, 2, 4, 1, {3, 5}, 6, {7, 9), 8. The bracketed pairs are close to equal, I think.
2. Type of Contribution. You want two waves, the first running 9 to 4 and the second 5 to 8. Each wave begins with the player who gets the most value setting the table and the least from knocking in his teammates, and runs to the player who is the opposite. Note that the ability to knock your teammates in is roughly 75% BA and 25% SA, since a runner on 1B scores half the time on a double and a RISP usually scores in any hit. And note that if you knock your teammates in a lot, that's taking guys off the table. Also note that stealing a base is a table-setting skill (as is running the bases well).
3. Handedness. Construct the order to minimize the effectiveness of opposing relief specialists. If you have multiple LHB who struggle vs. LHP, try to separate them as much as possible. If you have just one, try to have him follow two RHB. If you have multiple RHB who struggle vs. RHP, avoid having any pairs back-to-back, and try to get a LHB in between them. Think about how you'll pinch-hit for people and whether the opposing manager will be able to switch pitchers of you do.
4. Protection Need. Pitchers absolutely change their approach depending on the batter on deck. Most hitters adapt and hit roughly the same regardless of who's up next. But some do change their approach, for better of for worse. The trick is this: there are as many hitters who benefit from a lack of protection as hitters who benefit from it. The typical lineup might have two or three guys who need to be treated carefully with this in mind. Trot Nixon needed protection and hit much better 2nd than 5th, while J.D. Drew was the opposite.
5. Base-Stealing Skill. A SB almost always makes a difference if the next batter (or two) singles and often makes a difference if he doubles. It is rendered moot if the next batter walks or homers. If you have elite base stealers, try to hit them before a guy who has a high ratio of singles and doubles to walks and homers, which is to say a guy with a high BA and relatively low SEC.
6. Back-to-Back Skills. Back-to-back homers are a kick, but they're actually counter-productive. Trey to separate your best HR hitters. Try not to follow one of your slowest or last aggressive baserunners with one of your fastest (although the impact of this is minimal, it might come in handy as a tie-breaker).
7. Comfort. Don't assume (as every study and every optimizing calculator does) that guys will hit the same no matter where they hit in the order. I've already mentioned protection need. But that's not the only such factor; once in a while, guys just acquire a preference. Bill Mueller hit so much better 8th than elsewhere that it seemed impossible to be random, and when I pointed that out to Tito (via Jed Hoyer) he did his best to use him there as much as possible. So I presume that he talked to Mueller and got confirmation of the preference. (At the time I didn't have my protection theory). I also think it's credible that a young player can be adversely affected by the pressure of hitting 3rd or 4th in an elite lineup.
Opening the season ...
Every projection system has Vazquez, Nunez, Bradley as the three weakest hitters. Bradley and especially Vazquez like to be unprotected and Nunez likes a solid hitter (but not an elite one), so you get JBJ, catcher, Nunez as 7-8-9 both by quality and protection.
Everybody has JDM, Mookie, Benny as the 3 best hitters (at least versus RHP). The consensus is that Ramirez projects a bit better than Bogaerts; where Devers ranks is disputed, although I tend to buy that he's the 4th best hitter vs. RHP.
I'm higher on Xander than the projection systems, and it's also true that Hanley suffers a bit when protected, as he would be before JDM. And separating them also separates some back-to-back HRs. I'd also like to start Devers off not hitting 3 or 4. So that gives you:
Benintendi Betts Bogaerts (occasionally Hanley) Martinez Devers Ramirez (occasionally X) Bradley Vazquez / Leon Nunez
If Cora insists on hitting Betts 1 and Benny 2, that's not the end of the world. I'll be a little less sanguine about Hanley 3 and Xander 6 all the time, but that's not awful. You could swap the two depending on how they're going and/or your projection versus the opposing SP, but I'd want X getting the bulk of the action 3 unless he disappoints. More on the reason for this below.
Now, Moreland's going to play 1B against guys who are tough on RHB and struggle against LHB. And he cannot hit before a weak hitter. So two possibilities:
Benintendi Betts Devers Martinez Moreland Bogaerts Bradley Vazquez / Leon Nunez
And this one is an easy tweak if he does hit Mookie 1 and Hanley 3, as it just excises Hanley and moves everyone else up 1:
Betts Benintendi Martinez Devers Bogaerts Bradley Nunez Vazquez Moreland
One of the reasons I like my first lineup is that when Moreland does play, you're removing your 6 hitter and installing a new 5 guy, whereas in the second set, you're removing your 3 and replacing him with a 9, which sounds like an enormous downgrade when in fact it is of course the same modification. It might seem to guys that they're losing more in the second pair, though. Cora might figure out that platooning your number 3 hitter might seem weird to folks, so I do like the idea of hitting Hanley 3 just against certain pitchers (partly as a confidence booster / sign of respect) and mostly using him 6 as the unexpectedly scary force in the second half of the lineup.
When Pedey comes back, he can't hit in front of a weak hitter, so I like this:
Bogaerts (or Pedroia if he's not breaking out as we hope) Betts Benintendi Martinez Pedroia (or Bogaerts; second RHB here is to reduce number of LHR that Benny sees; it also breaks up HR hitters, and puts a table-setter before an RBI guy) Devers (could swap with Pedroia, especially if Benny hits LHP better; if he breaks out, could even swap with Benny) Ramirez Vazquez Bradley
... which is potentially a ridiculous lineup. In this lineup, Moreland hits 9 when he plays, with JBJ 7, and Devers moving up to 5 and Pedey down to 6.
You could also do Betts, Benintendi, Bogaerts, Martinez, Devers, Pedroia, and that might be better depending on what kind of seasons folks are having.
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Post by michael on Mar 11, 2018 14:20:34 GMT -5
Plus, I've always thought the "hit a guy artificially low in the order to take the pressure off him" narrative to be pretty meh. If hitting seventh as opposed to fifth has a material effect on a player's performance, I'm not I'm confident in his long-term makeup anyways. Example- Will Middlebrooks I remember Fred Lynn attributing some of his rookie success to batting down in the order. He thought that pitchers assumed he was a weaker hitter than his more ballyhooed teammates. He thought he got more fastballs because of this. I understand this doesn't affect a hitter's Attitude but it might explain some of the better results some hitter's experience.
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Post by soxjim on Mar 12, 2018 10:52:25 GMT -5
Reagrds to points from eric-- agree with many but also disagree with a few.
1-- I know "The Book" doesn't speak well of having your best or 2nd best hitter hit 3rd, but we've seen the best teams (Houston and LA this past year and Cubs this past year but also champs of 2016) that are heavy into advanced metrics use their best or 2nd best hitter in the 3rd spot. IMO it has to do with to a degree of Eric's point of number 4 and number 2. The number 3 hitter gives protection -- especially if your number 9 hitter is going to be for example Pedroia. That's where I feel this year Pedroia belongs. He is going to provide less and less power, he's slower and older. Pedroia also has had issues with hitting into Double plays. So needless to say I like what he says about number 2. Pedroia would be like a leadoff hitter in the 9 spot.
2-- As far as back-to-back home runs I agree it is overrated. But I like for example having Napoli from that 2013 team hitting 5th. So what there was back-to-back home runs. The Sox had their 2nd best slugger at the 5. look at the cubs. Their two best sluggers are back to back. When the Sox had Ortiz and Manny-- two slow baserunners, I wouldn't want to separate them.
3-- And I think eric is spot on about comfort. Yet you don't know comfort until you try. That's why I'm okay with trying Devers at 4. Don't assume he can't handle it. See if he can. Though I'd understand you can say the same about this year of Xander, Hanley and others.
4-- I'm all for having Xander or Hanley hit 3rd as long as they hit well and Devers isn't hitting significantly better. Though having Devers at 4 you'd have at least the 1st 5 hitters a nice right left right order.
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Post by oilcan73 on Mar 12, 2018 10:54:08 GMT -5
I go with
Betts Nunez / Pedey AB Martinez Ramirez Bogaerts Devers Catcher JB
I like some pop in the lower third of the lineup and Devers and JB will provide that and I think Nunez gets a lot of fastballs to play with in the 2 hole.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 12, 2018 13:02:47 GMT -5
Reagrds to points from eric-- agree with many but also disagree with a few. 1-- I know "The Book" doesn't speak well of having your best or 2nd best hitter hit 3rd, but we've seen the best teams (Houston and LA this past year and Cubs this past year but also champs of 2016) that are heavy into advanced metrics use their best or 2nd best hitter in the 3rd spot. IMO it has to do with to a degree of Eric's point of number 4 and number 2. The number 3 hitter gives protection -- especially if your number 9 hitter is going to be for example Pedroia. That's where I feel this year Pedroia belongs. He is going to provide less and less power, he's slower and older. Pedroia also has had issues with hitting into Double plays. So needless to say I like what he says about number 2. Pedroia would be like a leadoff hitter in the 9 spot. 2-- As far as back-to-back home runs I agree it is overrated. But I like for example having Napoli from that 2013 team hitting 5th. So what there was back-to-back home runs. The Sox had their 2nd best slugger at the 5. look at the cubs. Their two best sluggers are back to back. When the Sox had Ortiz and Manny-- two slow baserunners, I wouldn't want to separate them. 3-- And I think eric is spot on about comfort. Yet you don't know comfort until you try. That's why I'm okay with trying Devers at 4. Don't assume he can't handle it. See if he can. Though I'd understand you can say the same about this year of Xander, Hanley and others. 4-- I'm all for having Xander or Hanley hit 3rd as long as they hit well and Devers isn't hitting significantly better. Though having Devers at 4 you'd have at least the 1st 5 hitters a nice right left right order. Regarding Devers, I wouldn't want to risk him believing that the team is losing confidence in him if he struggles and has to be moved out of that spot. I'd rather play it conservative and let him force his way up.
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Post by soxjim on Mar 12, 2018 15:03:33 GMT -5
Reagrds to points from eric-- agree with many but also disagree with a few. 1-- I know "The Book" doesn't speak well of having your best or 2nd best hitter hit 3rd, but we've seen the best teams (Houston and LA this past year and Cubs this past year but also champs of 2016) that are heavy into advanced metrics use their best or 2nd best hitter in the 3rd spot. IMO it has to do with to a degree of Eric's point of number 4 and number 2. The number 3 hitter gives protection -- especially if your number 9 hitter is going to be for example Pedroia. That's where I feel this year Pedroia belongs. He is going to provide less and less power, he's slower and older. Pedroia also has had issues with hitting into Double plays. So needless to say I like what he says about number 2. Pedroia would be like a leadoff hitter in the 9 spot. 2-- As far as back-to-back home runs I agree it is overrated. But I like for example having Napoli from that 2013 team hitting 5th. So what there was back-to-back home runs. The Sox had their 2nd best slugger at the 5. look at the cubs. Their two best sluggers are back to back. When the Sox had Ortiz and Manny-- two slow baserunners, I wouldn't want to separate them. 3-- And I think eric is spot on about comfort. Yet you don't know comfort until you try. That's why I'm okay with trying Devers at 4. Don't assume he can't handle it. See if he can. Though I'd understand you can say the same about this year of Xander, Hanley and others. 4-- I'm all for having Xander or Hanley hit 3rd as long as they hit well and Devers isn't hitting significantly better. Though having Devers at 4 you'd have at least the 1st 5 hitters a nice right left right order. Regarding Devers, I wouldn't want to risk him believing that the team is losing confidence in him if he struggles and has to be moved out of that spot. I'd rather play it conservative and let him force his way up. I know. Many feel that way. I don't. But I understand. Though last year we heard the same thing about bringing him up in a pennant race. That there would be too much pressure. I know that doesn't mean this time he'd falter. I just think it's too cautious -- but I understand.
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Post by larrycook on Mar 12, 2018 21:53:05 GMT -5
Betts Benintendi Hanley Martinez Devers Nunez/pedroia Bogey Vazquez Bradley
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