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4/20-4/22 Red Sox @ Athletics Series Thread
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 23, 2018 15:12:57 GMT -5
I took it as OPS A + OPS B to be more critical. There's nothing really exciting good or bad for an OPS of .720. You can't do OPS A + OPS B because they aren't additive, they have different weights because of differences in ABs and PAs. About .720 is probably below average for a CF and Lf but to do that calculation right you'd need to break it down more detailed than I wanted to do because both Benny and JBJ have played multiple positions. In any event, those wouldn't be numbers you would normally associate with a team with an .810 winning percentage, leastwise, I wouldn't. ADD: The 6-4 is also not a bad number, a 600 winning percent. Especially if you consider that your #1 & #2 are more often than not going to face a #1 & #2. Just not what you would expect with a 17-4 team. FWIW, right now, MLB LF's have an OPS of .712. MLB CF's have an OPS of .707. Benintendi has a wRC+ of 108. He's been an above-average hitter. Bradley's wRC+ is 91, but as mentioned, he's getting unlucky. I get the point you were trying to make, but a few of the items in your list are just kind of confusing in their relevance.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 23, 2018 15:45:18 GMT -5
I think you missed the point of my post. I didn't, I was just moving on.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 23, 2018 18:36:06 GMT -5
The Yankees will always be the Twins' daddy. It's so predictable that the Twins will lose to the Yankees.
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Post by station13 on Apr 23, 2018 18:57:44 GMT -5
The Yankees will always be the Twins' daddy. It's so predictable that the Twins will lose to the Yankees. How can one team keep rolling over and over for the same team is beyond me.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 23, 2018 20:06:45 GMT -5
Someone posted the Twins record vs the Yankees the lsst 20 years or so on here, last year and it was like .300 or something really pathetic, lime the equivalent of a really bad expansion franchise.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2018 2:45:20 GMT -5
Re- Summing it all up...
We've played 57% of our games on the road. That means we have 12 more home games than away games remaining on our schedule.
We've already done a west coast trip. Which means we only have 1 travel grueling west coast trip remaining. Our division competition still has two.
Our best offensive performer at catcher is OPSing .525. That number is significantly below not only both their projections but also significantly below actual historic production. That number is far more likely to rise than stay the same or decline.
2/3 of our starting outfield has a combined OPS of about .720. For both Benny & JBJm the numbers are below historic production and significantly below projections. In Benny's case, he started slow and that number has been steadily rising. In JBJ's case, he's been making solid contact but hasn't had the production expected. Games are won and lost on what actually happened, not what should have happened. In both cases, there's reason to anticipate more production going forward.
We have a replacement level player averaging over 2 PA per game. We also have Xander about to return to the lineup which should reduce said replacement's time on the field. Going from Holt to Xander will be viewed by some as an upgrade.
We have a ceramic statue playing 2B. Xander is coming back which means Holt will get some playing time at 2B. It also means that Nunez can be used to spell Devers. Holt is a significantly better second baseman than Nunez. Even more optimism, Petey will be here in about 3-4 weeks. Petey isn't a statue and he'll likely replace the replacement level guy when he returns if he isn't gone before that.
Our best hitter, at the time, got injured and has only played in 42% of the games. He's not only been hitting well but is a significant upgrade over Holt who isn't good at the shortstop thing.
Our 3Bman has made 80% of the team errors. 80% is only 4 errors and two came on one play and one came on a throw to previously mentioned statue. Devers in total is a plus defender and errors are a pretty meaningless stat. The Red Sox only have 1 unearned run all year.
We're 6-4 in games started by our aces. Not bad but does anyone really expect the Sox to play only .600 ball when Sale and Price start ? I don't.
2/5 of the starting rotation just recently arrived. Problem solved, our planned starting 5 are here
We're on a 130 win pace but there's still a ton of reasons for optimism going forward.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 24, 2018 8:14:56 GMT -5
Someone posted the Twins record vs the Yankees the lsst 20 years or so on here, last year and it was like .300 or something really pathetic, lime the equivalent of a really bad expansion franchise. I think I saw somewhere that the Twins were 31-79 against the Yankees in their past 110 games, a .282 winning percentage. Don't know if that includes their pathetic showings in post-season games. That's somewhere between the 1969 Expos and the 1962 Mets. That's pretty pathetic. I would guess that if the Twins are going to win it would be with Berrios pitching, but the Yankees will probably sweep the Twinkies.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 24, 2018 8:17:11 GMT -5
Re- Summing it all up... We've played 57% of our games on the road. That means we have 12 more home games than away games remaining on our schedule. We've already done a west coast trip. Which means we only have 1 travel grueling west coast trip remaining. Our division competition still has two. Our best offensive performer at catcher is OPSing .525. That number is significantly below not only both their projections but also significantly below actual historic production. That number is far more likely to rise than stay the same or decline. 2/3 of our starting outfield has a combined OPS of about .720. For both Benny & JBJm the numbers are below historic production and significantly below projections. In Benny's case, he started slow and that number has been steadily rising. In JBJ's case, he's been making solid contact but hasn't had the production expected. Games are won and lost on what actually happened, not what should have happened. In both cases, there's reason to anticipate more production going forward. We have a replacement level player averaging over 2 PA per game. We also have Xander about to return to the lineup which should reduce said replacement's time on the field. Going from Holt to Xander will be viewed by some as an upgrade. We have a ceramic statue playing 2B. Xander is coming back which means Holt will get some playing time at 2B. It also means that Nunez can be used to spell Devers. Holt is a significantly better second baseman than Nunez. Even more optimism, Petey will be here in about 3-4 weeks. Petey isn't a statue and he'll likely replace the replacement level guy when he returns if he isn't gone before that. Our best hitter, at the time, got injured and has only played in 42% of the games. He's not only been hitting well but is a significant upgrade over Holt who isn't good at the shortstop thing. Our 3Bman has made 80% of the team errors. 80% is only 4 errors and two came on one play and one came on a throw to previously mentioned statue. Devers in total is a plus defender and errors are a pretty meaningless stat. The Red Sox only have 1 unearned run all year. We're 6-4 in games started by our aces. Not bad but does anyone really expect the Sox to play only .600 ball when Sale and Price start ? I don't. 2/5 of the starting rotation just recently arrived. Problem solved, our planned starting 5 are here We're on a 130 win pace but there's still a ton of reasons for optimism going forward. The Sox have also won every game not started by Price or Sale. The bullpen hasn't given up a run in awhile. There are a bunch of "law of averages" type of stuff also working against the Sox as well. Which means they won't win 130, but they'll probably be in the neighborhood of 95 - 100 wins barring disastrous injuries.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2018 14:03:29 GMT -5
Re- Summing it all up... We've played 57% of our games on the road. That means we have 12 more home games than away games remaining on our schedule. We've already done a west coast trip. Which means we only have 1 travel grueling west coast trip remaining. Our division competition still has two. Our best offensive performer at catcher is OPSing .525. That number is significantly below not only both their projections but also significantly below actual historic production. That number is far more likely to rise than stay the same or decline. 2/3 of our starting outfield has a combined OPS of about .720. For both Benny & JBJm the numbers are below historic production and significantly below projections. In Benny's case, he started slow and that number has been steadily rising. In JBJ's case, he's been making solid contact but hasn't had the production expected. Games are won and lost on what actually happened, not what should have happened. In both cases, there's reason to anticipate more production going forward. We have a replacement level player averaging over 2 PA per game. We also have Xander about to return to the lineup which should reduce said replacement's time on the field. Going from Holt to Xander will be viewed by some as an upgrade. We have a ceramic statue playing 2B. Xander is coming back which means Holt will get some playing time at 2B. It also means that Nunez can be used to spell Devers. Holt is a significantly better second baseman than Nunez. Even more optimism, Petey will be here in about 3-4 weeks. Petey isn't a statue and he'll likely replace the replacement level guy when he returns if he isn't gone before that. Our best hitter, at the time, got injured and has only played in 42% of the games. He's not only been hitting well but is a significant upgrade over Holt who isn't good at the shortstop thing. Our 3Bman has made 80% of the team errors. 80% is only 4 errors and two came on one play and one came on a throw to previously mentioned statue. Devers in total is a plus defender and errors are a pretty meaningless stat. The Red Sox only have 1 unearned run all year. We're 6-4 in games started by our aces. Not bad but does anyone really expect the Sox to play only .600 ball when Sale and Price start ? I don't. 2/5 of the starting rotation just recently arrived. Problem solved, our planned starting 5 are here We're on a 130 win pace but there's still a ton of reasons for optimism going forward. The Sox have also won every game not started by Price or Sale. The bullpen hasn't given up a run in awhile. There are a bunch of "law of averages" type of stuff also working against the Sox as well. Which means they won't win 130, but they'll probably be in the neighborhood of 95 - 100 wins barring disastrous injuries. I never said I thought the Sox would win 130, that's crazy. I don't disagree with your sentiment or that there are other factors which should reasonably decline. I would however increase the probability range. Consider that to win 100 games, the Sox would need to go 83/58 the rest of the way, a .588 clip. There were 4 teams that exceeded that for the season last year, some substantially. ADD: Our offensive K/H and K/TB ratios are extremely favorable compared to the rest of the planet. That should normalize somewhat.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 24, 2018 15:08:37 GMT -5
The Sox have also won every game not started by Price or Sale. The bullpen hasn't given up a run in awhile. There are a bunch of "law of averages" type of stuff also working against the Sox as well. Which means they won't win 130, but they'll probably be in the neighborhood of 95 - 100 wins barring disastrous injuries. I never said I thought the Sox would win 130, that's crazy. I don't disagree with your sentiment or that there are other factors which should reasonably decline. I would however increase the probability range. Consider that to win 100 games, the Sox would need to go 83/58 the rest of the way, a .588 clip. There were 4 teams that exceeded that for the season last year, some substantially. ADD: Our offensive K/H and K/TB ratios are extremely favorable compared to the rest of the planet. That should normalize somewhat. No, I didn't think you were implying they'd win 130, although I wonder if Eric Van still considers 112 a realistic most/all goes well endpoint of a dream season for the Sox I think you know what my point was. And while the Sox haven't played the Jays and have a lot of games left at The Toilet and against the MFYs and have at least a half dozen games against Houston and also against Cleveland, there are so many cupcakes on their schedule. Lots of TB and Baltimore, and they'll see the Tigers, ChiSox, and Royals, and the Rangers pitching staff. Lots of wins there. I think the Sox would do well to play .588 ball the rest of the way personally, even with the cupcakes on the schedule. There are going to be aggravating losses, the pen is still unsettled late in the game, there'll be injuries, etc....but despite that I'd expect them to play between .550 - .600 ball the rest of the way after the 17-2 start, so that lands them between 95 - 100 wins. And when you think about it how often do the Sox exceed that mark? They won 104 in 1946 and might have hit 100 between 1948 - 1950 (they all played above .600 ball) if the schedule had been 162 games long. The best Sox teams since then were the 78 Red Sox who finished 99-64, after a blazing 62-28 start. The 77 Sox were 97-64. The Champion 04 Sox were 98-64. Those are your .600 Red Sox teams. The Champion 2013 Sox lost the last two games of the season to finish under .600 at 97-65, about the only thing they did wrong that season although those losses were probably in deference to the 04 Sox The Champions 2007 Sox team went 96-66 and this was after a scorching hot start. They basically paced themselves during the summer. The pennant winning 86 Sox got off to a huge start, struggled and got hot again before losing the last 4 to fall under .600, at 95-66. The pennant winning 75 Sox finished 95-65. The strong Sox teams of 2003, 2005, 2008, and 2009 all finished 95-67. The point is that in all those years since 1946, there have been about 10 really strong/excellent clubs and some of them got off to amazing starts, and they still failed to win 100 games or even play .600 ball. It sounds easy to say all they have to do is play .588 ball and they're all set, but I think that's easier said than done. So I like to be conservative and say their likeliest range is 95 - 100 wins, which is normally a range that's higher than I anticipate. So this is a really strong team. How does it compare to the others listed?
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 24, 2018 15:12:20 GMT -5
I don't see how previous Red Sox teams have anything to do with this year's team. If the Red Sox are as great as they look, they'll easily win 100 games. What happened 40 years ago doesn't change anything about this year. It's hard to win 100 in baseball, but the Red Sox are positioned pretty well. Great teams do it just about every season. It usually takes a little luck.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 24, 2018 15:59:53 GMT -5
I don't see how previous Red Sox teams have anything to do with this year's team. If the Red Sox are as great as they look, they'll easily win 100 games. What happened 40 years ago doesn't change anything about this year. It's hard to win 100 in baseball, but the Red Sox are positioned pretty well. Great teams do it just about every season. It usually takes a little luck. The point is that some of those teams looked as great as this one does, and it didn't happen. Do you think this year's edition is better than those teams listed? If you said yes, I wouldn't necessarily argue. This is an impressive squad, and yes, this team could win 100 games - with a little luck. I just can't go there yet and say, yup this team will win 100 games. But unlike other Sox teams I certainly wouldn't rule it out.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2018 18:11:18 GMT -5
With this rotation, I'll say this is the best Sox team in my lifetime.
I'll set my personal, non math derived, range at 98 to 110 with 104 as my gut. I am about 87% that I will see my first 100 win Sox.
We have a strong team now that's going to get stronger with Xander, Pedroia & Thornburg. We have a starting rotation that could rival the famous Braves rotations, an excellent bullpen that has stabilized including the returning command of Smith, our set-up man. We have a strong lineup with an excellent bench and we have enough in taxi reserve to weather any reasonable health scenario.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 24, 2018 21:38:24 GMT -5
With this rotation, I'll say this is the best Sox team in my lifetime. I'll set my personal, non math derived, range at 98 to 110 with 104 as my gut. I am about 87% that I will see my first 100 win Sox. We have a strong team now that's going to get stronger with Xander, Pedroia & Thornburg. We have a starting rotation that could rival the famous Braves rotations, an excellent bullpen that has stabilized including the returning command of Smith, our set-up man. We have a strong lineup with an excellent bench and we have enough in taxi reserve to weather any reasonable health scenario. You think this rotation is better than Schilling/Pedro/Lowe/Wakefield/Arroyo? Better than Tiant/Lee/Wise/Moret/Cleveland? Better than Eckersley/Torrez/Tiant/Lee/Wright? Better than Clemens/Hurst/Boyd/Seaver/Nipper (Nipper did suck in 86)? If your answer is yes I wouldn't argue with you. I'm just not ready to say definititely this rotation is better than the others mentioned, but it could be. I'm not prepared to put them on a par with Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz/Avery/Millwood or whoever. I'm not convinced with Smith yet nor do I feel Thornburg can be counted on. I do think Dombrowski will get somebody in July. The lineup is solid. The catchers haven't hit. I do agree that they have better depth than most Red Sox teams. Still, I'd be really surprised if they made it to 104 wins, or even more than 100. Hope to be surprised. I'd love to see them do it.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 25, 2018 5:32:59 GMT -5
With this rotation, I'll say this is the best Sox team in my lifetime. I'll set my personal, non math derived, range at 98 to 110 with 104 as my gut. I am about 87% that I will see my first 100 win Sox. We have a strong team now that's going to get stronger with Xander, Pedroia & Thornburg. We have a starting rotation that could rival the famous Braves rotations, an excellent bullpen that has stabilized including the returning command of Smith, our set-up man. We have a strong lineup with an excellent bench and we have enough in taxi reserve to weather any reasonable health scenario. You think this rotation is better than Schilling/Pedro/Lowe/Wakefield/Arroyo? Better than Tiant/Lee/Wise/Moret/Cleveland? Better than Eckersley/Torrez/Tiant/Lee/Wright? Better than Clemens/Hurst/Boyd/Seaver/Nipper (Nipper did suck in 86)? If your answer is yes I wouldn't argue with you. I'm just not ready to say definititely this rotation is better than the others mentioned, but it could be. I'm not prepared to put them on a par with Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz/Avery/Millwood or whoever. I'm not convinced with Smith yet nor do I feel Thornburg can be counted on. I do think Dombrowski will get somebody in July. The lineup is solid. The catchers haven't hit. I do agree that they have better depth than most Red Sox teams. Still, I'd be really surprised if they made it to 104 wins, or even more than 100. Hope to be surprised. I'd love to see them do it. First, in general, I was talking about the team as a whole, Unfortunately the great offensive teams of the late 70's had marginal pitching in general. Specific to the 2004 Schilling/Perdo rotation, it sounds good on paper but in retrospect, Lowe and Wake were in decline and Arroyo was good but not great. As for the Braves, for careers, no way, it's far too early to say that but' for any given season it's a distinct possibility IF ALL GOES WELL. We have 3 healthy starters who are looking like Cy candidates, Sale, Price & Porcallo, a 4th starter who had a very solid year (boarderline #2/#3) last year (Pomeranz) and a high upside 5th starter who is finally healthy (hopefully) and poised for a breakout (hopefully) in ERod. I believe Thornburg should be good, it wasn't an arm issue and reports out of Florida had him at 2MPH faster than his historic numbers and there's no reason to believe his curve has gone south. For Smith, it appears to me that the movement on his slider is there but the locations are off. That's not unusual for Tommy John. He's been overcoming the issues and is improving outing by outing.
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