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Post by James Dunne on May 11, 2018 7:16:52 GMT -5
5/11 Red Sox (LHP Chris Sale 3-1, 2.02, 49.0 IP, 63K:11BB) @ Blue Jays (RHP Aaron Sanchez 2-3, 4.14, 41.1 IP, 28K:22BB) 7:07 pm ET, NESN/MLBN*/WEEI 5/12 Red Sox (LHP David Price 2-4, 5.11, 37.0 IP, 32K:16BB) @ Blue Jays (RHP Marco Estrada 2-2, 5.21, 38.0 IP, 29K:14BB) 4:07 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 5/13 Red Sox (LHP Drew Pomeranz 1-1, 5.23, 20.2 IP, 20K:8BB) @ Blue Jays (RHP Marcus Stroman 0-5, 7.71, 37.1 IP, 32K:18BB) 1:07 pm ET, NESN/WEEI *Out of Market Only MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsA note regarding moderating of the gameday threads in 2018: As the disclaimer has always said, in the past, we have been very liberal in moderating the Gameday threads. They're meant to be a lot less formal than other threads on the forum, so to moderate them the same way would be silly. However, we do ask posters to maintain a certain level of decorum in these threads, and we plan on moderating the Gameday threads a little more actively this season. In particular, we ask that posters refrain from being overly repetitive with their posts (if you've made your point, let it go), refrain from monopolizing the discussion (if you are making more than a couple posts in a row, you probably need to slow down a little bit), and of course, follow the Ground Rules ( link). The point is to make these threads worth participating in and fun for all posters, from our long-time fixtures to people just signing up today. -The Management
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 11, 2018 8:30:36 GMT -5
Updated relief rankings. xWP- / WP- (Expected / actual relief effectiveness), with rank among 210 most-used relievers in parentheses.
48 (15) / 36 (33) Joe Kelly 50 (18) / 27 (29) Craig Kimbrel
58 (25) / 71 (72) Matt Barnes 84 (76 ) / 46 (44 ) Carson Smith since 4/19 98 (116) / 38 (36) Bobby Poyner 102 (128) / 171 (200) Carson Smith 102 (131) / 68 (68) Hector Velazquez 110 (155) / 117 (143) Heath Hembree 124 (182) / 163 (195) Brian Johnson
On 4/27, Hembree was 58 / 33 and had been used with an average 0.95 leverage. That terrific performance earned him a promotion to high leverage use.
In his 5 outings since then, he's 199 / 222 in 1.59 leverage. The change is so titanic that I'm not sure we can conclude that his current overall numbers reflect his actual talent and hence value. But he's had problems pitching in high leverage his entire career.
I think they need to send him back to low-leverage innings and see what happens, while giving Smith (0.98 leverage since he started pitching well) the #4 man in the pen role. No need quite yet to try to open up a roster spot for Thornburg or Workman.
Meanwhile, Craig Kimbrel has pitched like a really good 8th inning guy and gotten average 8th-inning guy results. That's very far from elite closer. And it's doesn't seem to be because of missing ST; you can divide his season into three chunks based on increasing FB velocity and he was at his best early in the year; while his xFIP- has gone steadily down, his hardness of contact (and command, I think) has worsened to offset it. The only good spin you can put on it as that his May xWP- of 40 would rank 12th for the season, but of course that's little consolation given that he's been hugely unclutch and has a 105 WP-.
In 2016 he also ranked 18th in xWP- (with a 60 raw score) but was really bad in the clutch, ranking 81st in WP-. There has to be a real concern that he's showing every-other-year syndrome.
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Post by iakovos11 on May 11, 2018 9:32:19 GMT -5
Eric, how much does the epic meltdown Tuesday night effect Kimbrel's rankings?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 11, 2018 10:56:48 GMT -5
Eric, how much does the epic meltdown Tuesday night effect Kimbrel's rankings? Before the Yankee series he was 13th in xWPA- and 8th in WP-. But on May 2nd he was 25th and 22nd and also looked like he was in danger for an off year. We're still at the stage of the season where a few days can change the ranking significantly, which is why I keep running them!
He had meltdowns on April 24, May 1, and May 9.
Last year he had 5 meltdowns: April 20, June 25, July 3, July 15 (but just 2 appearances after the previous), and August 1. So 3 of the meltdowns came in a stretch of 7 appearances (versus 3 in 8 this year), and 4 in a stretch of 14.
So it's possible that he's just had his inevitable bad stretch early. What he needs to make us optimistic is a good long run without another.
xWP- and WP- on this date in his Sox career:
48 / 98 1 / -3 27 / 38
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Post by incandenza on May 11, 2018 12:03:59 GMT -5
Eric, how much does the epic meltdown Tuesday night effect Kimbrel's rankings? Before the Yankee series he was 13th in xWPA- and 8th in WP-. But on May 2nd he was 25th and 22nd and also looked like he was in danger for an off year. We're still at the stage of the season where a few days can change the ranking significantly, which is why I keep running them!
He had meltdowns on April 24, May 1, and May 9.
Last year he had 5 meltdowns: April 20, June 25, July 3, July 15 (but just 2 appearances after the previous), and August 1. So 3 of the meltdowns came in a stretch of 7 appearances (versus 3 in 8 this year), and 4 in a stretch of 14.
So it's possible that he's just had his inevitable bad stretch early. What he needs to make us optimistic is a good long run without another.
xWP- and WP- on this date in his Sox career:
48 / 98 1 / -3 27 / 38
Could you break those meltdowns down by which ones did not occur in the lucid and pristene atmosphere of a clean 9th inning save opportunity? Because my impression is that he just stinks in any other situation. Which of course hugely reduces his value because he can't be used in the highest-leverage situations and is often squandered in low-leverage 2- and 3-run 9th inning lead situations and oh by the way they should totally not extend his contract. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 11, 2018 13:10:57 GMT -5
Marcus Stroman has been placed on the DL. The Sox won't face him on Sunday.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 11, 2018 16:17:22 GMT -5
JBJ out of the lineup again tonight. Brock Holt is in the lineup.
I think JBJ is susceptible to high velocity pitching. So I think this a good call keeping him out versus Sanchez. Hopefully he can get going against Estrada and whoever Toronto throws out on Sunday.
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Post by chrisfromnc on May 11, 2018 18:11:25 GMT -5
JBJ out of the lineup again tonight. Brock Holt is in the lineup. I think JBJ is susceptible to high velocity pitching. So I think this a good call keeping him out versus Sanchez. Hopefully he can get going against Estrada and whoever Toronto throws out on Sunday. I read something somewhere today saying Cora had found a “mechanical flaw” in his swing and he’s now working on the fix. Hope it works. |
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Post by chrisfromnc on May 11, 2018 18:15:47 GMT -5
Ok, a little something brewing in the 1st. First and third, no outs.
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Post by chrisfromnc on May 11, 2018 18:22:12 GMT -5
Well they only got one run across but Sanchez took 25 pitches to get there.
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Post by chrisfromnc on May 11, 2018 18:27:16 GMT -5
Wow, two laser beam hits off Sale.
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on May 11, 2018 18:27:21 GMT -5
Nice to see the staff hold onto a lead.
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Post by chrisfromnc on May 11, 2018 18:33:17 GMT -5
Sale’s slider is pretty nasty right now.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 11, 2018 18:46:24 GMT -5
Nice to see the staff hold onto a lead. Donaldson is really good and Hernandez jumped on a first pitch fastball. Stinks, but it happens. |
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Post by chrisfromnc on May 11, 2018 19:12:21 GMT -5
Hanley runs right through the only stop sign Carlos Febles has used all season. Out easily at home. Jeez.
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bosox
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Post by bosox on May 11, 2018 19:15:56 GMT -5
Hanley runs right through the only stop sign Carlos Febles has used all season. Out easily at home. Jeez. Not to mention he wasn't running very hard around second base because he must have thought it was gone and then again hesitated halfway to the plate. Inexcusable with two out. |
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Post by Canseco on May 11, 2018 19:18:36 GMT -5
Oh, Hanley...
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Post by chrisfromnc on May 11, 2018 19:19:08 GMT -5
Hanley runs right through the only stop sign Carlos Febles has used all season. Out easily at home. Jeez. Not to mention he wasn't running very hard around second base because he must have thought it was gone and then again hesitated halfway to the plate. In excusable with two out. True. He made at least two mistakes in one base running play. You could look at it as three separate mistakes if you wanted to (slow to second, not even full speed to third, and ignoring the stop sign). |
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Post by 75tillnow on May 11, 2018 19:19:48 GMT -5
Its not just that he ran through the sign. He ambled along thinking it was a homer. If he had run full out he would have scored. Which leads to a more general point. I have seen this time and again. 2 outs, a long drive. So whether its an out or a homer or extra base hit, why not run as hard as you can? You don't get up much during the game anyway, so its not as if it will tire you. It seems to be the tradition (among some) that you don't run full out. Why not? There are two outs! I don't get it.
Good thing Bogey hit a no-doubter!
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Post by chrisfromnc on May 11, 2018 19:19:54 GMT -5
Monster home run for Xander!
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Post by Smittyw on May 11, 2018 19:20:18 GMT -5
XANDAH BOEGAHHTS!
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bosox
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Post by bosox on May 11, 2018 19:20:36 GMT -5
Xander with a bomb. Nice!
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Post by Guidas on May 11, 2018 19:22:34 GMT -5
Wow that was blast.
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Post by chrisfromnc on May 11, 2018 19:25:50 GMT -5
Mitch Moreland is a good hitter.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 11, 2018 19:26:39 GMT -5
Hanley will never be a guy you would have teaching the fundamentals of baseball play.
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