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Post by ramireja on May 3, 2018 13:06:42 GMT -5
Santiago Espinal went 3-4, HR(3) today. No one will confuse his 3 home runs with Bobby Dalbec power by any means, but its still fairly interesting given that he hit 4 all of last year in 544 PAs (ISO: .077). Power is not supposed to be part of his game, and I'm not saying it currently is (although ISO: .172 going into today's game), but if he can settle into a .100-.150 ISO long term with his defense, some useable speed, and his contact skills....that could lead to a major league bench role.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 3, 2018 15:29:15 GMT -5
Santiago Espinal went 3-4, HR(3) today. No one will confuse his 3 home runs with Bobby Dalbec power by any means, but its still fairly interesting given that he hit 4 all of last year in 544 PAs (ISO: .077). Power is not supposed to be part of his game, and I'm not saying it currently is (although ISO: .172 going into today's game), but if he can settle into a .100-.150 ISO long term with his defense, some useable speed, and his contact skills....that could lead to a major league bench role. I don't disagree with the point, but would just note that two of his 3 HR have come in this series in Frederick, which is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league, particularly for home runs in which it is by a large margin: www.milb.com/milb/news/toolshed-class-a-advanced-park-factors/c-209781986I always remember Michael Almanzar's breakout season in 2012, when he hit .300 with 12 HR, but then when you looked he hit 5 of the 12 HR in Frederick.
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Post by James Dunne on May 10, 2018 8:06:50 GMT -5
Santiago Espinal has quietly become the first guy whose name I check in the box scores. Another two hits last night, including a triple. .301/.367/.522 as a shortstop is pretty exciting, especially since the athleticism and contact skills seem legit. Pretty sure he's not really a .221 Iso guy, but that bodes well too.
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Post by Addam603 on May 10, 2018 8:21:44 GMT -5
Santiago Espinal has quietly become the first guy whose name I check in the box scores. Another two hits last night, including a triple. .301/.367/.522 as a shortstop is pretty exciting, especially since the athleticism and contact skills seem legit. Pretty sure he's not really a .221 Iso guy, but that bodes well too. You beat me to it. I was gonna comment that this morning. He’s been the most impressive batter in the system to me. Sturgeon and Quiroz may have better numbers, but they’re both older for their level. Espinal shows promise in pretty much every aspect of the game. Hit tool looks good, he doesn’t strike out much and his walk rate has hovered around 7-10% so far. Never gonna be a speedster but he’ll steal enough bases to remain a threat. If he can maintain even part of his power this year, along with his above average defense, he’s got a shot to become a legit big leaguer. With the expected graduations of Johnson, Velazquez, and Lin coming soon, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Espinal get some love at the back end of the top 20.
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Post by Addam603 on May 10, 2018 11:34:28 GMT -5
Honestly not sure if this is a sustainable stat, but Espinal slashed his GB% from 45.9 to 28.7. This led to an increase in his FB% and LD%, so he’s getting more lift on his hits. That GB% is 6th lowest in the system (three of the guys below him are catchers with relatively small sample sizes and one is Lin-who’s played two minor league games).
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Post by ramireja on May 10, 2018 15:31:19 GMT -5
Honestly not sure if this is a sustainable stat, but Espinal slashed his GB% from 45.9 to 28.7. This led to an increase in his FB% and LD%, so he’s getting more lift on his hits. That GB% is 6th lowest in the system (three of the guys below him are catchers with relatively small sample sizes and one is Lin-who’s played two minor league games). Probably not completely sustainable, but it is probably at least a sign of a change in his hitting approach and emphasis on lifting the ball.....nice find.
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Post by telson13 on May 10, 2018 21:37:46 GMT -5
Santiago Espinal has quietly become the first guy whose name I check in the box scores. Another two hits last night, including a triple. .301/.367/.522 as a shortstop is pretty exciting, especially since the athleticism and contact skills seem legit. Pretty sure he's not really a .221 Iso guy, but that bodes well too. He’s considered an above-avg defensive SS, no? I don’t mean whiz, but probably MLB 55-60 at peak? The ISO is a treat to see; he’s doing it with all the XBH spectrum. I hadn’t noticed the GB/FB split until Adam mentioned it. He could move if he keeps it up; Salem def hurts HR power so it’s be nice to see what he can do in Hadlock.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 10, 2018 23:34:07 GMT -5
Santiago Espinal has quietly become the first guy whose name I check in the box scores. Another two hits last night, including a triple. .301/.367/.522 as a shortstop is pretty exciting, especially since the athleticism and contact skills seem legit. Pretty sure he's not really a .221 Iso guy, but that bodes well too. He’s considered an above-avg defensive SS, no? I don’t mean whiz, but probably MLB 55-60 at peak? The ISO is a treat to see; he’s doing it with all the XBH spectrum. I hadn’t noticed the GB/FB split until Adam mentioned it. He could move if he keeps it up; Salem def hurts HR power so it’s be nice to see what he can do in Hadlock. At 23 is Espinal considered old for the level he's at? If not, it would be nice to have a legit SS prospect.
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Post by telson13 on May 10, 2018 23:59:50 GMT -5
He’s considered an above-avg defensive SS, no? I don’t mean whiz, but probably MLB 55-60 at peak? The ISO is a treat to see; he’s doing it with all the XBH spectrum. I hadn’t noticed the GB/FB split until Adam mentioned it. He could move if he keeps it up; Salem def hurts HR power so it’s be nice to see what he can do in Hadlock. At 23 is Espinal considered old for the level he's at? If not, it would be nice to have a legit SS prospect. Yeah, he is, but it’s not like he’s 26. I think there’s a good chance he makes AA as a late June promotion if he keeps this up. I’m enamored, to say the least, with his batted ball profile right now, and the contact peripherals look legit. So if he does move, 23 in AA is average from a development standpoint, as far as a “real” MLB prospect goes. That would put him on track to debut at 24 in 2019. He’s a JUCO guy who was pretty (relatively) well- rated coming out of the draft, so I think of him as the equivalent of roughly a lower-round 4-yr junior post-draft (who might go 21-Lowell, 22-Greenville, 23-Salem). I guess Beeks’s path might be a rough equivalent. Beeks probably debuts this year at or just before turning 25 after being an 8th rounder who did turn 23 in Salem in 2016 but had a couple of 2-level seasons. So, yeah, maybe Espinal is a *little* old, and probably because they were relatively conservative in the beginning. But I’m less concerned with his age than his relative progression, which looks very solid right now. He was advertised as having a bat, and maybe sneaky XB power at draft time, so I’m a believer. The batted ball profile rn is gold, and the isoD and K rate look pretty good. Seems legit to me.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 11, 2018 10:30:29 GMT -5
At 23 is Espinal considered old for the level he's at? If not, it would be nice to have a legit SS prospect. Yeah, he is, but it’s not like he’s 26. I think there’s a good chance he makes AA as a late June promotion if he keeps this up. I’m enamored, to say the least, with his batted ball profile right now, and the contact peripherals look legit. So if he does move, 23 in AA is average from a development standpoint, as far as a “real” MLB prospect goes. That would put him on track to debut at 24 in 2019. He’s a JUCO guy who was pretty (relatively) well- rated coming out of the draft, so I think of him as the equivalent of roughly a lower-round 4-yr junior post-draft (who might go 21-Lowell, 22-Greenville, 23-Salem). I guess Beeks’s path might be a rough equivalent. Beeks probably debuts this year at or just before turning 25 after being an 8th rounder who did turn 23 in Salem in 2016 but had a couple of 2-level seasons. So, yeah, maybe Espinal is a *little* old, and probably because they were relatively conservative in the beginning. But I’m less concerned with his age than his relative progression, which looks very solid right now. He was advertised as having a bat, and maybe sneaky XB power at draft time, so I’m a believer. The batted ball profile rn is gold, and the isoD and K rate look pretty good. Seems legit to me. Yeah I think the comp being made was Espinal at 23 in Salem versus Quiroz and Sturgeon at 26 in Portland. The average age for hitters in the Carolina League is 22.5 per B-Ref, so I'd call it age-appropriate rather than old.
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Post by ramireja on May 11, 2018 14:07:16 GMT -5
I started a new thread (and refrained from naming it the Big Bad Santiago Espinal thread) w/ some of the nice insights on Espinal from our recent gameday threads. He's truly been a bright spot in what has been a really down year for position players.
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Post by 1900getwade on May 14, 2018 7:03:09 GMT -5
Plays shortstop and has one of the top 5 slg% in the league. So far is not striking out or grounding out very much. color me intrigued.
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Post by ramireja on May 14, 2018 17:08:44 GMT -5
Plays shortstop and has one of the top 5 slg% in the league. So far is not striking out or grounding out very much. color me intrigued. Yep, this got posted elsewhere (and appropriately so), but this fringe five article from Fangraphs (holy alliteration) has a tidbit on this point exactly. By one metric (which appears to be the average of two standardized Z-scores referring to his swinging strike% and GB%), nobody in High-A right now has a better combination of avoiding grounders and whiffs.
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Post by Addam603 on May 17, 2018 11:59:12 GMT -5
Just as a thought provoking question: when CJ Chatham is healthy enough to play the field again, does Santiago Espinal get promoted to Portland?
The situations are different in some ways but Josh Tobias and Aneury Taveras got early season promotions last year after hot starts.
I don’t see a pressing need to promote him and staying in Salem wouldn’t be a bad thing, but a promotion to Portland wouldn’t be shocking or undeserved in my opinion.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 17, 2018 12:04:49 GMT -5
He's old enough that I could certainly see him getting a midseason promotion to Portland. I wouldn't promote him based solely on Chatham though - you can manage that situation by rotating guys through the DH spot (maybe you start getting Espinal and Chatham exposure to 2B and/or 3B and rotating the 4 infielders through the DH spot a bit).
Tobias had spent the entire previous season at the same level and Tavarez had spent the prior two seasons at the same level (and had been a Rule 5 pick), so those situations aren't the same. You could argue those guys even starting where they did was pretty conservative. With a guy at a new level, he will likely stay there until around the all-star break.
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Post by salemsox17 on Jun 22, 2018 8:50:21 GMT -5
Espinal has more than proved himself in Salem. Seems like he is due for a promotion.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 22, 2018 8:57:09 GMT -5
Espinal has more than proved himself in Salem. Seems like he is due for a promotion. You know, given how aggressive the organization has been in general with their placements this year, I am at least a tiny bit surprised that he didn't get promoted at the break. I don't know whether he should or shouldn't be--there may be a very specific reason they want him working on in Salem. But given that he's been excellent this year and that getting both Espinal and Chatham reps at shortstop seems like it would make sense, I did think there was a good chance they'd move him up.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 22, 2018 9:22:00 GMT -5
253 PA is not such a small sample that a guy can't get promoted, but that's like, you're too good for this level promotion time. Like Chavis last year got 250 on the nose (and coincidentally, so did CDLG, who got promoted at the same time). He definitely has things he's working on - for example, when I saw him this year, he was REALLY aggressive on the basepaths, to a potentially detrimental degree. There always could be things like that, which don't show up in a slash line, that they want a guy to work on at a level.
Espinal probably has another few weeks in Salem at most though, especially given the Chatham logjam and the fact that Rivera isn't doing much in Portland (and might be hurt - he hasn't played since Saturday). Maybe he goes up after the Portland ASB from July 9-11.
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