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Post by tjb21 on Apr 21, 2022 9:24:10 GMT -5
I loved what I saw last night from Crawford. His stuff is even nastier than Whitlock's. In what way(s)?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 21, 2022 9:57:06 GMT -5
I loved what I saw last night from Crawford. His stuff is even nastier than Whitlock's. In what way(s)? That was 10 days ago. It was a different time. Different world.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 31, 2022 23:44:45 GMT -5
Just lookng at his numbers. Is he legit (small sample) or just enjoying being a bit old for the level? Last outings for Bello, Crawford and Winkowski were encouraging! Not sure where the ceilings are for those three, but hopefully they are adjusting to major league hitters.
Actually, Crawford was more lucky than good last time. But he's been excellent for a while now.
A tale of two half-seasons ... Through May 5, 46 batters faced: .350 / .435 / .550 = .426 wOBA allowed, actual
.299 / .391 / .660 = .441 xOBA, expected Since then, 152 batter faced (last outing before being sent down, everything after his June recall) .199 / .250 / .340 = .259 actual .233 / .282 / .353 = .281 expected The actual / expected as a starter / bulk guy in 7 games (144 PA) is .263 / .282.
How good is that? There are 146 SP with 200+ batters faced, almost exactly 5 per team. If he qualified ...
He'd be tied for 10th in wOBA. That's an ace.
He'd be tied for 30th in xwOBA. That's a smack-dab-in the middle #2.
The wOBA almost certainly reflects good defense behind him, but it's worth naming the guys who surround him to drive home how effective he's been ...
Yu Darvish, Corbin Burns, Clayton Kershaw, .256 Max Fried, Kutter Crawford, .263 Shohei Ohtani, .265 Luis Castillo, .266
One of these things is not like the other . The big caveat here is that he's faced the Rays twice, the Yankees, Blue Jays, Cardinals, and Indians. They are collectively .004 / .005 (actual, expected) better vs./ RHP than average, so he's been a bit better than his numbers. Factor that in, and now he's tied with Alex Manoah for 22nd in xwOBA, sitting between Brandon Woodruff and Max Scherzer.
So here's the list of SP who are either 100-250 PA or a rookie, and have both wOBA and xwOBA better than average for a SP. I'm not giving background for two guys you know well.
Prospect rankings. except where noted, are FG for 2022 (handy, as my copy of the 2022 BA annual has apparently eloped with the 2021 edition)
Spencer Strider, 227 PA, .246 / .254, Braves #2, 4th round pick Kutter Crawford, 144 PA, .263 / .282, Red Sox #21, 17th round
Freddy Peralta, 165 PA, .276 / .276, IL stint
Mike Clevinger, 211 PA, .275 / .289, IL stint
Josh Winder, 147 PA, .287 /.287, Twins #4, 7th round pick (includes bulk outing vs. Sox in April) Joe Ryan, 352 PA, .306 / .295, Twins #6
Jakob Junis, 177 PA, .280 / .295, former BA Royal's #15, failed 5th starter (see below)
Jesus Luzardo, 119 PA, .297 / .303, former BA A's #1, finally getting it together for the Marlins Braxton Garrett, 219 PA, .310 / .294, Marlins #20, 1st round pick
Eight other guys and only Junis is where "where did that come from?". And the Giants did a Pivetta with him, having him throw his killer slider insanely often and revamping the rest of his arsenal.
His numbers are low #2 starter, in 33 more PA than Kutter ... we'll see how well Kutter fares in his next couple of starts.
Garrett after TJ surgery has recovered his pre-draft velo, and is pitching as a 2/3 borderline instead of the projected 5.
Likelier than not he's going to hit a rough stretch at some point ... but he has a big cushion built up to finish with numbers that will project him for the 2023 rotation. Right now you'd hope for Sales, Paxton, Pivetta, Whitlock, Crawford, with Bello in Whitlock's role and moving into the rotation if and when there's a medium-length or longer injury.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 3, 2022 14:58:53 GMT -5
So, I've done the analysis of Kutter's opponents on a player-by-player basis, using their wOBA and xwOBA on the season vs. RHP.
(There's only one guy with a tiny sample size, the Ray's Jonathan Aranda, 15 PA, .379 wOBA; I took his xwOBA of .350 and split the difference with league average.) The first somewhat startling thing is that there is a solid correlation between hitter quality and what they've done against Kutter if you use wOBA (r = .165, p = .18), but none at all if you use xwOBA (r = .045, p = .72). This suggests that pitcher wOBA - xwOBA has a very real component that is separate from fielding support, which is to say that pitchers have a horizontal launch angle skill, namely, the ability (or inability) to prevent balls from being pulled. Statcast could adjust for this very easily, BTW.
So ... the league has hit .309 / .311 (actual, expected wOBA) vs. RHP. Kutter has allowed .267 / .276 since being called back up and making his first start on 6/12.
The hitters he has faced have hit .326 / .322 against RHP.
When you adjust for that, he's allowed .250 / .265.
There are 172 SP who have faced 150+ hitters as a starter. Kutter has faced 169 including his bulk outing (and note that this methodology accounts for that, since the purpose of an opener is to let the virtual starter face a weaker set of hitters).
Kutter's hitter-adjusted wOBA would rank 5th in MLB. Shane McLanahan, Justin Verlander, Spencer Strider, Sandy Alcantara.
(And it's probably better than that -- half his outings have been against the AL East, where the hitters' numbers have been dinged downwards by having to face the AL East pitchers, whose numbers in turn have been dinged down by facing the AL East hitters, and so on until the actual adjustment is probably five times as large as the simple one that is inherent in the way I'm doing this, based on the way it works for teams. McLanahan is the only AL East pitcher in the top 15 -- Manoah is 16th).
His hitter-adjusted xwOBA would rank 14th. Still ace quality.
He has a lot of headroom to end up as a 3 starter or better.
I've got some interesting stuff about his pitch effectiveness; that's next.
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Post by bosox904 on Aug 3, 2022 21:39:08 GMT -5
Eno Sarris' models like Crawford. His stuff+ numbers have declined over his last 400 pitches(to below average overall, but still above average for starters), but his location+ and pitching+ both improved.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 3, 2022 22:21:38 GMT -5
Seems like a lot of different models and advanced stats really like Crawford
I think that means he’s just very good.
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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 3, 2022 22:54:10 GMT -5
So far he claiming that 5th spot.
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Post by manfred on Aug 5, 2022 14:27:32 GMT -5
Well, in that case I don’t want to hear about injuries next year as an excuse. You get a guy who owns a vacation home on the IL, you know what you are in for. The thing I have yet to see you acknowledge is that the injury risk is why these guys are cheaper. If Wacha and Hill and Paxton were all certain to have perfect health they'd be a lot more expensive and the Red Sox wouldn't be able to afford them. As it is they've gotten 143 IP and 1.9 fWAR in two-thirds of a season from these guys, so they're on pace for basically 3 WAR for their $17 million investment.
Now you could complain that the Red Sox never invest a lot in top-line starters - it's just that that complaint would be false. They are paying Sale $26 million and Eovaldi $17 million and Price $16 million this season. They've gotten less than 1 WAR combined out of those guys.
It seems a little odd to me that between the 3 WAR/$17 million group and the 1 WAR/$59 million, you reserve all of your complaining for the former rather than the latter.
Well, I certainly think DD should be questioned for some of those moves, though Eovaldi was a good signing, Price was an overpay to contend immediately, and Sale… probably simply unwise. But he is gone. So if the question is the current guys… let’s look at those signings. Yes, they were cheaper. Good! But why go cheaper with, you know, pitching, then take on salary in the JBJ trade? Why go cheaper but not get under the tax line? Why pay Hill, Diekman, and Paxton a combine $14 million when that might get you someone better? Your WAR compilation is nice, but it is almost all Wacha. I could as easily say, hey between Hill and Paxton, you have .3 WAR for nearly $10 million. Throw in Diekman, who for all the complaints compiled the *same* value as Hill, you have .6 WAR for $14 million. Is that a good off season signing record?
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Post by bosox904 on Aug 5, 2022 15:29:29 GMT -5
Since I brought Sarris's model up, I'll share a link to his Google doc. Keep in mind 100 is average. But that's for all pitchers. For stuff+ I believe average for starters is around 96-97. Crawford did see a deline in his stuff+ over the last 400 pitches, but he seen a similar increase in his location+. So maybe the drop in stuff was more about improving his locations rather than just a pure talent drop docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AE1dNnudwRS6aLhWA1SArp1GoviUeHNcASXxtm3Le9I/edit?usp=drivesdk
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 7, 2022 9:44:53 GMT -5
I wonder if he’s already the best player taken at that specific draft pick in MLB history. There’s almost definitely a better 16th rounder but he definitely has a chance at his spot (which is so wild, the MLB draft is weird)
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Post by bosox904 on Aug 7, 2022 10:41:56 GMT -5
I wonder if he’s already the best player taken at that specific draft pick in MLB history. There’s almost definitely a better 16th rounder but he definitely has a chance at his spot (which is so wild, the MLB draft is weird) Josh Willingham was the 491st pick in 2000 draft and had 15.2 career bWAR. But he was selected in the 17th round. He did sign at that pick. Carlos Rodon and Justin Smoak were also selected at that pick, but did not sign. There's also 3 other players ahead of him in career bWAR selected at 491 that signed: Ross Baumgarten in 1977(5.1 bWAR), Dominic Leone in 2012(5.8, he's still active and has .5 bWAR this year) and Bob MacDonald in 1987(1.2). Only one other player selected at that spot made the majors,, Marty Castillo(-0.9), but he didn't sign. www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=491&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick
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Post by bosoxnation on Aug 7, 2022 10:47:57 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Aug 7, 2022 11:16:29 GMT -5
I moved general 2023 rotation predictions and conversation to a new thread
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 7, 2022 20:55:07 GMT -5
I wonder if he’s already the best player taken at that specific draft pick in MLB history. There’s almost definitely a better 16th rounder but he definitely has a chance at his spot (which is so wild, the MLB draft is weird) Josh Willingham was the 491st pick in 2000 draft and had 15.2 career bWAR. But he was selected in the 17th round. He did sign at that pick. Carlos Rodon and Justin Smoak were also selected at that pick, but did not sign. There's also 3 other players ahead of him in career bWAR selected at 491 that signed: Ross Baumgarten in 1977(5.1 bWAR), Dominic Leone in 2012(5.8, he's still active and has .5 bWAR this year) and Bob MacDonald in 1987(1.2). Only one other player selected at that spot made the majors,, Marty Castillo(-0.9), but he didn't sign. www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=491&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pickThanks for the fun new research tool!
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Post by bosox904 on Aug 18, 2022 12:39:36 GMT -5
If you have an athletic subscription Eno Sarris talks about Kutter in his article. He's among the 25 pitchers who made the biggest improvements in his pitching model stuff+. If I posted to much of the article below, let me know. "Phew. The dude named Kutter has a good cutter. Would have to reevaluate wholesale if not. Looks like he has a good four-seam by stuff and command, too, so he’s got two pitches he can go to in any count. That’s the big part of the battle in becoming a major league starter, so it seems likely Crawford will continue in his role. How successful he will be depends on the other pitches. The Pitching+ model may be weakest when it comes to changeups, but it doesn’t love Crawford’s changeup, and hitters have slugged .471 off of it in the early going, so maybe the model is right. Instead, the hope seems to be multiple breaking pitches. Obviously, the slider seems underutilized. Why doesn’t he throw it more? It’s not because it blends into his cutter vertically. The horizontal movement version of this chart is more chaotic, though. So maybe throwing the cutter and slider is too much for Kutter. Even though the curveball is not great by Stuff+, he puts it in good locations. I’d rather hear that he’s throwing more sliders, but I’ll take the uptick in curve usage as good enough news for his long-term prognosis as a starter. His Stuff+ numbers are lower as a starter than a reliever, but even looking at outings over 60 pitches, he has a 100 Stuff+, which is actually above-average for a starter. His 104 Location+ in starts is also very hopeful. The minor league numbers are not exciting, and they’re fueling poor projections, but Crawford looks legit, and is absolutely a good dynasty pickup." theathletic.com/3513819/2022/08/18/sarris-kutter-crawford-jp-sears-and-23-other-starters-showing-big-stuff-plus-6-primed-to-break-out?source=user-shared-article
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Post by incandenza on Aug 18, 2022 12:48:00 GMT -5
That's notably more optimistic than this site's "Projects as middle reliever. Ceiling of a high-quality swingman" evaluation. Is Sarris too optimistic, or would the bosses here agree that he looks better since getting to Boston?
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Post by huskies15 on Aug 18, 2022 12:59:00 GMT -5
Ian and Chris have talked about Crawford on the podcast a few times, and if I remember correctly they think higher of him than before this stretch. The long-term projection is probably still high-end long reliever/spot starter, but Eno's model is definitely a more analytical look and offers new data points to suggest he could be a long-term starter.
Definitely a nice surprise in this odd season.
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Post by seamus on Aug 18, 2022 13:09:44 GMT -5
His stuff seems noticeably better than it was earlier in his career. His cutter is at 89, which is significantly faster than the 85-87 the SP scouting report lists, and he's added what seems to be a pretty good slider. I think he's significantly outperforming his minor league track record, so it comes down to whether you think his stuff took a leap or if he's just riding a fluky hot streak. Eno's article seems to suggest that the gains might be real, which would be incredibly exciting.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 18, 2023 10:03:51 GMT -5
Little thread bump after that impressive outing
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Post by RedSoxStats on Apr 18, 2023 11:01:52 GMT -5
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Post by bosoxnation on Apr 18, 2023 16:18:04 GMT -5
The way he throws literally hurts my arm to watch. Guy is for sure one of our better pitchers ATM. I with rather see him starting then Sale. I was hoping Sale would have a decent 1st half so we can try to unload that contract at the deadline. Praying it can still happen.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 18, 2023 16:59:41 GMT -5
There have been 184 relievers who have faced 25 or more batters in relief. Crawford ranks 5th in xwOBA and 1st in wOBA.
There are 230 guys who have faced 20+ batters; Sox have 4 of the top 42 in wxOBA. Crawford's 8th, Jansen's 19th, Winck is 36th, and Schreiber 42nd.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 16, 2023 21:32:40 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 16, 2023 22:48:07 GMT -5
Also. ALEX with the GOAT clickbait headline
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Post by rhswanzey on Jul 17, 2023 2:01:07 GMT -5
This tweet is almost a month old, but, for posterity’s sake
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