ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 26, 2024 21:18:24 GMT -5
Final numbers! (Including the bulk outing.)
Kutter Crawford faced 63 hitters with runners on and 1B base open, and had a .416 xwOBA, which ranked as the 7th worst performance among the 150 SP who faced the most hitters.
(He also ranked 40th worst in his 8 PA with runners on the corners, with a .381 xwOBA. The average sample size was 14, but you would still expect some correlation with overall pitching ... and in fact there was hone at all (slightly negative, actually). That was the situation toughest to handle with the new SB rules, and the lack of correlation can be attributed to pitchers taking widely different approaches. In any case, it didn't affect his numbers tangibly.)
Without these two problem areas he had a .261 xwOBA (in 375 PA), which ranked second, and he still ranks second with the 8 runners on the corners included.
Honest question: Does anyone have an educated guess about much of this is noise and how much is actually attributable to a difference in approach when 1B is open? Like, after how many hitters faced would we expect real differences in runner-on scenarios to stabilize? Or, if we were to examine a veteran SP's 10-year career, would we see substantial (say, .100 or more) year-to-year variations in xwOBA for, e.g., 1B open or RISP. I'd love it to be real, obviously, because it would suggest that Crawford's biggest problem is simply one of approach, but I don't know how to think about what seems like a really small sample. Significance is a function both of sample size and effect size.
If you’re otherwise the second best starting pitcher in baseball facing 383 hitters but the seventh worst (of 150) facing 63 hitters in a situation where we know pitches often alter their approach – that’s a mind-boggling effect size, together with a likely explanation.
I’d have to have the xwOBA of every plate appearance of both types to put a number on the odds, and Statcast doesn't have that data handy. (I can work around it and might do so later).
The totals PA, by the way, were enough to not need an adjustment for small sample size.
Year to year pitching performances differ for real. A single season has some chance of being one data point ... but last last both Pivetta and and Bello became different pitchers after the first two months.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,031
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Post by cdj on Feb 26, 2024 22:57:21 GMT -5
He’s apparently trying to add a splitter
I pray and weep for his elbow, which I have already prayed and weeped for
Could be nasty with it though
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Post by itinerantherb on Feb 26, 2024 23:29:47 GMT -5
Honest question: Does anyone have an educated guess about much of this is noise and how much is actually attributable to a difference in approach when 1B is open? Like, after how many hitters faced would we expect real differences in runner-on scenarios to stabilize? Or, if we were to examine a veteran SP's 10-year career, would we see substantial (say, .100 or more) year-to-year variations in xwOBA for, e.g., 1B open or RISP. I'd love it to be real, obviously, because it would suggest that Crawford's biggest problem is simply one of approach, but I don't know how to think about what seems like a really small sample. Significance is a function both of sample size and effect size.
If you’re otherwise the second best starting pitcher in baseball facing 383 hitters but the seventh worst (of 150) facing 63 hitters in a situation where we know pitches often alter their approach – that’s a mind-boggling effect size, together with a likely explanation.
I’d have to have the xwOBA of every plate appearance of both types to put a number on the odds, and Statcast doesn't have that data handy. (I can work around it and might do so later).
The totals PA, by the way, were enough to not need an adjustment for small sample size.
Year to year pitching performances differ for real. A single season has some chance of being one data point ... but last last both Pivetta and and Bello became different pitchers after the first two months.
I want to believe.
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 27, 2024 13:51:39 GMT -5
He’s apparently trying to add a splitter I pray and weep for his elbow, which I have already prayed and weeped for Could be nasty with it though He threw three of them in the first inning and comparing the Statcast numbers to major league splitters in 2023, it doesn't look like a usable pitch yet
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Post by wamderingdude on Feb 27, 2024 14:58:33 GMT -5
He’s apparently trying to add a splitter I pray and weep for his elbow, which I have already prayed and weeped for Could be nasty with it though He threw a splitter last year didn’t he?
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,031
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Post by cdj on Feb 27, 2024 15:08:43 GMT -5
He’s apparently trying to add a splitter I pray and weep for his elbow, which I have already prayed and weeped for Could be nasty with it though He threw a splitter last year didn’t he? Might’ve been classified more as a changeup last year. I was reading an article where it was coming from himself that he’s trying to add a split
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,928
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 27, 2024 22:33:24 GMT -5
He threw a splitter last year didn’t he? Might’ve been classified more as a changeup last year. I was reading an article where it was coming from himself that he’s trying to add a split He threw his splitter 163 times last year, 44 of them ending a PA, with a .273 xwOBA.
That ranked 87th among the 212 pitchers who had 40+ PA on their splitter or change -- 59th percentile. Great pitch in the big real of things, solid above-average pitch relative to other off-speed pitches.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Apr 23, 2024 11:53:54 GMT -5
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