Looking Ahead to a Potential Rebuild

Yes

Just seems like we have too many of our core guys all hitting free agency at roughly the same time. The good news is that we're not hamstrung with a lot of long-term awful contracts.

The Yankees have torn it down mid-season. I agree that they shouldn't go into a season with the idea of a full tear-down in mind, but there will be a season where nothing is working and at that point they should tear it down and reload the system. The Yankees traded Chapman for Torres and then signed Chapman in the off-season. They also got Clint Frazier for Andrew Miller.

I get concerned about the teams' window of contention lessening in the next few years and worry that there's not a crop of players that looks like the next Mookie or the next Xander or the next Sale, etc.

I wouldn't say the Sox should NEVER do a full rebuild - I mean if they don't have anything resembling a young core in place, then maybe...

But Benintendi and Devers are still under Red Sox control well into 2022 or 2023. E-Rod is around until 2021.

The Sox have money coming off the books between Hanley after this season, Pomeranz, and I suspect that only one or neither of Kelly/Kimbrel will be back.

Then after 2019 Xander, Sale, Porcello, JDM, and most of Sandoval's $ come off the books.

I would think there's money there to sign one or two of those guys. Perhaps kick in some extra $ for JDM - it's not like he'd be going from $10 million/year to $30 million/year. Probably more like 22 million/year to 27 million/year or whatever.

Then after 2020 there's Mookie and JBJ. And you take your best shot with Mookie.

The two keys will be DD's ability or maybe his successor's ability to make astute low level free agent signings or deals that turn into something great - not necessarily signing David Ortiz off the scrapheap great, but moves that can help, and the other key is hoping that the Sox start getting prospects developed through this system - this draft might be a great start for that.

Those two keys are something we don't know about yet, so it's too hard to say - yeah, tear it down.

Also keep in mind the upper luxury tax limit will be moving up to about $249 million next year, and by 2022 there's a pretty good chance a work stoppage occurs which will further change the rules, and what impact it has who knows?

They're already limiting the draft pick you lose when signing a premier free agent. You're no longer punting a first round pick. Trending in that direction, a team like the Sox might not lose anything to sign a player like that.

And until then, it's possible free agent winters will be similar to this past offseason where humungous contracts aren't routinely given out. Yeah, Machado and Harper will get massive contracts, but the others perhaps, not as much as anticipated, which will help the Sox like it helped keep them under the limit when JDM had to "settle" for 22 million/year.

That sounds good if you think the Red Sox could go with a $300 million payroll and all the penalties associated with that.

You mean like trade Jon Lester and re-sign him?

Like trading Andrew Miller and re-signing him?

Both players really loved Boston, particularly Lester.

But if you do that, prepare that those guys dealt aren't coming back. You cannot guarantee that you sign a particular free agent.

Other than, basically what the others have said.

I don't see how you can trade Xander, the team is loaded this year and next and should go for it. What I'm not sure about is whether they should go for it in 2020. If they can't re-sign Mookie I'd prefer they trade him rather than keep him another year on a middling team and then lose him in free agency.

I mentioned this a couple of times before. I blame Tony Mazz and Sean Mcadam for this topic. For some reason Felger and Mazz have adopted the question every home team. Look under every rock for a problem. I guess because they have some success with there ratings. But this is played out when you start questioning every single home team just looking to create ratings. I think you move one you target your top people try to sign them. Don't forget the Sox are top of the food chain with resources and they are clearing out some money after 2019 season. I believe they can resign who they want. The ones who leave offer a Qualifying offer to get the pick and move on. This season they addressed Hanley so only Kimbrel and Pomerez are left. Next season more interesting Sale,Porcello and Xman. We will see.

You have given me some great ideas, my friend. Many thanks!

*fires up Playstation*

I am ok with letting sale walk as well.

In order for the math to work, we need to actually develop a starter in the near future though.

Yes very true. I was merely giving examples of moves that could allow us to effectively retain the value at the MLB level while also picking up assets. I didn’t necessarily mean we make all these moves or even more than one.

In regards to another rebuttal, yes the Sox will have to pay a boatload for the Machado types but they are also going to pay a boatload to resign the Sale types too.

The downsize to my plan is you’re adding 18 million +\- to your payroll a year early.

No they’re are not, but it was the philosophy I was stressing more than anything. Perhaps it would be easier if we focused on one hypothetical. Perhaps the Sox are higher on Machado than Bogaerts, and you know Bogaerts is either going to walk or get paid a hefty amount himself one year later. Get some assets for Bogey in a trade and sign Machado.

Maybe Machado isn’t that guy, maybe there’s another player who fits that model like Harper. Yes, these guys are going to get hefty pay days but does anyone think Betts, Bogaerts, and Sale are not? and/or are going to sign deep discounts?