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7/18 Gameday Thread: Pom trying to get his mojo back & Houck
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 18, 2018 21:04:55 GMT -5
How did Dalbec do tonight? FYI, there is always a link in the first post of the gameday thread to the system's box scores for the night. Looks like this: BoxscoresToday's Affiliate Box ScoresI'm probably the only one that didn't know but Marcus Walden got in an inning for Lowell. Cole Brannen didn't get in for the second game so he likely hurt something. Jarren Duran with what I think was his first start at CF. Was actually Duran's fourth start in center field. Can always check that here: www.soxprospects.com/stats/lineup.php?team=558&year=2018- Helpful Hatty |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 18, 2018 21:20:11 GMT -5
Per the PawSox game recap, after Pomeranz finished his 6 innings on 69 pitches (nice), he went and threw in the bullpen with Foulke watching.
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Post by Addam603 on Jul 18, 2018 21:30:30 GMT -5
Any word yet on the fastball velocity?
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Post by tnyankee556 on Jul 18, 2018 22:16:25 GMT -5
Pomeranz - 90 mph FB
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Post by patford on Jul 18, 2018 22:58:27 GMT -5
FB velocity is extremely overrated. It is a nice thing to have but it's all about command. Koji. Kelly. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 19, 2018 2:20:19 GMT -5
Encouraging to see Pomeranz have success for the first time this year it seems, but sounds like he needs to be perfect with his command like he was tonight and/or mix in more offspeed more than his fastball. Sort of what Workman is going through right now.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 19, 2018 2:24:35 GMT -5
FB velocity is extremely overrated. It is a nice thing to have but it's all about command. Koji. Kelly. You're talking about the extremes in terms of command. Koji being perfect nearly all the time with it, and Kelly usually never perfect with command. Kimbrel gets away with a ton of mistakes with his loss of command at times because of.....you guessed it, velocity. Velocity does matter but better command can sometimes hide the lack of velocity. You got to be perfect with it, or you're getting hammered these days in MLB without it. My best guess is that Pomeranz has the ceiling of a back of the rotation starter if his fastball velocity doesn't creep back up, kind of like Chris Hatfield was talking about with his Brian Johnson comparison. That is a big step down from his ceiling of a year ago, which was a number 2 or 3 type in a good rotation. |
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 19, 2018 5:33:26 GMT -5
FB velocity is extremely overrated. It is a nice thing to have but it's all about command. Koji. Kelly. You're talking about the extremes in terms of command. Koji being perfect nearly all the time with it, and Kelly usually never perfect with command. Kimbrel gets away with a ton of mistakes with his loss of command at times because of.....you guessed it, velocity. Velocity does matter but better command can sometimes hide the lack of velocity. You got to be perfect with it, or you're getting hammered these days in MLB without it. My best guess is that Pomeranz has the ceiling of a back of the rotation starter if his fastball velocity doesn't creep back up, kind of like Chris Hatfield was talking about with his Brian Johnson comparison. That is a big step down from his ceiling of a year ago, which was a number 2 or 3 type in a good rotation. If Pomeranz can throw his curve for a strike, he's a tough pitcher to hit no matter what his fastball is at. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 19, 2018 5:58:57 GMT -5
You're talking about the extremes in terms of command. Koji being perfect nearly all the time with it, and Kelly usually never perfect with command. Kimbrel gets away with a ton of mistakes with his loss of command at times because of.....you guessed it, velocity. Velocity does matter but better command can sometimes hide the lack of velocity. You got to be perfect with it, or you're getting hammered these days in MLB without it. My best guess is that Pomeranz has the ceiling of a back of the rotation starter if his fastball velocity doesn't creep back up, kind of like Chris Hatfield was talking about with his Brian Johnson comparison. That is a big step down from his ceiling of a year ago, which was a number 2 or 3 type in a good rotation. If Pomeranz can throw his curve for a strike, he's a tough pitcher to hit no matter what his fastball is at. He probably has a great game in him or two this season, but his command was perfect it seemed in this game. He's been hammered in every other start. It's great that he found his command perfectly for one game, but it remains to be seen if he's even a starter if he doesn't have that great command (usually the case with Pomeranz, higher walk totals than you'd like in his career). Regardless, this should be his last rehab start. The Sox need to see it in the majors (with Pomeranz) now or they need to find someone else to fill a rotation spot. Edit- Drew Pomeranz threw 65 percent of his pitches for strikes which above his average regularly last year. Still a good sign to show he's actually healthy and not just talking about it. |
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 19, 2018 7:18:01 GMT -5
Pomeranz' curve was rated 8.8 runs above average last season. This year it's 8.4 runs below average. That's a pretty huge swing.
In fact, opposing batters have a 186 wRC+ against his curve, slightly worse than Mookie Betts against all pitches. For his career, it was a 82.
Needless to say, getting great results with his curve last night was a huge step. I'm pretty sure this is a mechanical thing and not injury related.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 19, 2018 7:27:55 GMT -5
Is that entirely the curve itself though, or the separation from the fastball that helps make the curve so effective? Think Keith Foullke: his changeup didn't play anymore after 2004. But it wasn't that his changeup got worse on its own, it's that his fastball was no longer hard enough to make that adjustment difficult. Or Henry Owens: his changeup and curve couldn't play up enough against major leaguers because his fastball wasn't thrown hard enough to disrupt that timing.
I'm not positive that's applicable here, but I don't think it's quite correct to dismiss the drop in fastball velocity as a non-factor.
On the other hand, if it means he's more like a #4 starter than the #2 starter he was in 2017, that's really useful too. No reason to wait around for him trying to be perfect if he can help now. Unlike Owens, Pomeranz has the command to live with a fastball he throws 90-91, I just don't see it letting him being as effective as he was in 2017.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 19, 2018 7:42:59 GMT -5
The one hope is that Pomeranz finds his fastball velocity deeper into the season. He doesn't have a ton of innings logged this year. That may help him, but who knows with that arm?
It seems to flair up a lot with injuries, like a ticking time bomb. Good luck to the next team that pays him any guaranteed money.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 19, 2018 7:48:47 GMT -5
Is that entirely the curve itself though, or the separation from the fastball that helps make the curve so effective? Think Keith Foullke: his changeup didn't play anymore after 2004. But it wasn't that his changeup got worse on its own, it's that his fastball was no longer hard enough to make that adjustment difficult. Or Henry Owens: his changeup and curve couldn't play up enough against major leaguers because his fastball wasn't thrown hard enough to disrupt that timing. I'm not positive that's applicable here, but I don't think it's quite correct to dismiss the drop in fastball velocity as a non-factor. On the other hand, if it means he's more like a #4 starter than the #2 starter he was in 2017, that's really useful too. No reason to wait around for him trying to be perfect if he can help now. Unlike Owens, Pomeranz has the command to live with a fastball he throws 90-91, I just don't see it letting him being as effective as he was in 2017. That's mostly all completely wrong. Reduced separation of FB and CH velocity actually makes the change more effective, not less. The least effective velocity for a changeup is league-average separation (11 mph), because that's the generic default timing wired into every hitter's brain. Harder changeups are more effective, and slower changeups are best of all. On average, though, the effect is small enough that you would never bother altering the pitcher's natural separation, if he commands it well.
Owens was among the MLB leaders in swing and miss rate his first year, despite marginal FB command. His collapse came when his command fell below marginal.
Pomeranz had a 90.3 FB velo over his last 6 starts last year, when he had a 3.69 ERA and 719 OPS allowed, and a 91.5 over his first 12, when he had a 4.48 ERA and 767 OPS allowed.
He had a 92.3 in his great 13-start stretch in between (2.31, .666), so the September decline was probably driven by his FB velo decline. But he was 91.4 in his last start this year, and he can be a solid 3 with his current velo.
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Post by rjw on Jul 19, 2018 7:51:48 GMT -5
Pomeranz was 87 to 90 with his fastball and kept it mostly on the outer half (with one unfortunate exception). The curve was 76 to 79 and looked very good. He even threw a few pitches that appeared to be change-ups at about 83/84. The home run was to straightaway left. Charlotte is a bit of a bandbox to left & right, but it still was enough to have gotten out of Fenway. There were several outstanding defensive plays to preserve the no-hitter. Tavarez made a great sliding catch deep down the right field line, the 3rd baseman made a dive to his left then fired a strike to just get the runner at first, and Miller made 2 good plays at short, one to his right and another to his left, made strong throws on both to just get the runners.
Watching Josh Smith pitch was excruciating. It took him 55-60 pitches to get thru 2 innings.
Hernandez did not have a good game. He threw 2 into centerfield which helped the Knights tack on the 2 insurance runs. His base running skills fit right in with what the Sox are doing though: He stole 2nd then inexplicably tried to advance to 3rd on a ball in the SS hole.
I'm not a scout, and I know it is a very SSS, but I am scratching my head over what they see in Phillips & Lind. Neither hit the ball hard (when they actually did hit it). Phillips DH'd last night, he got badly fooled several times on sliders outside. Lind made an unusual play at 1st - he fielded a grounder and then tried to outrun the runner to the bag instead of making the easy toss to the 2b covering. It ended up being both players diving towards the bag. I was thinking about ERod when I saw that.
All of the scouts sitting around us perked up and got their radar guns out in the 9th when Charlotte brought in a flame throwing right hander. He was 97/98 on his fastball.
Ok, that is all that my untrained eye observed last night. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 19, 2018 8:05:31 GMT -5
87-90 mph for Pomeranz? Yeah, I'm not convinced he can be a number 3 starter like Eric just said. Maybe a backend type, if not bullpen role. You have to be perfect with command in the majors with that type of velocity.
That is a average of what seems like 89 mph. Hard to know for sure, but who the heck knows why Pomeranz can not even touch 93 mph anymore when he did it regularly all year last year.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 19, 2018 8:08:28 GMT -5
That's mostly all completely wrong. Reduced separation of FB and CH velocity actually makes the change more effective, not less. The least effective velocity for a changeup is league-average separation (11 mph), because that's the generic default timing wired into every hitter's brain. Harder changeups are more effective, and slower changeups are best of all. On average, though, the effect is small enough that you would never bother altering the pitcher's natural separation, if he commands it well. [/div][/quote] Does that account for arm speed and release point though? The pitchers with the biggest separation are the ones who throw their change completely differently and therefore the pitch is easiest to pick up. EDIT: That wasn't meant to be a snide question either, I'm legitimately curious. |
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Post by patford on Jul 19, 2018 9:06:30 GMT -5
Pomeranz had a 90.3 FB velo over his last 6 starts last year, when he had a 3.69 ERA and 719 OPS allowed, and a 91.5 over his first 12, when he had a 4.48 ERA and 767 OPS allowed.
He had a 92.3 in his great 13-start stretch in between (2.31, .666), so the September decline was probably driven by his FB velo decline. But he was 91.4 in his last start this year, and he can be a solid 3 with his current velo.
I find it extremely hard to believe that one mph on a FB which is below average at best is a huge factor. That is suggested by his last six starts being better than his first 12. And I'm not saying it totally does not matter, but a 92.3 FB isn't going to blow anyone away. Like most pitchers Pomeranz is going to be effective if he can throw strikes and locate with a mix of pitches. |
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 19, 2018 9:41:48 GMT -5
Pomeranz had a 90.3 FB velo over his last 6 starts last year, when he had a 3.69 ERA and 719 OPS allowed, and a 91.5 over his first 12, when he had a 4.48 ERA and 767 OPS allowed. He had a 92.3 in his great 13-start stretch in between (2.31, .666), so the September decline was probably driven by his FB velo decline. But he was 91.4 in his last start this year, and he can be a solid 3 with his current velo.
That is suggested by his last six starts being better than his first 12. And I'm not saying it totally does not matter, but a 92.3 FB isn't going to blow anyone away. Like most pitchers Pomeranz is going to be effective if he can throw strikes and locate with a mix of pitches. Read this: fivethirtyeight.com/features/baseballs-hot-hand-is-real/ The short version is that decreased fastball velocity is predictive of pitcher performance beyond the effect of the velocity itself. |
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 19, 2018 9:58:08 GMT -5
Maybe the Sox need to embrace the idea of piggyback starters every 5th game until either Erod or Wright come back.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 19, 2018 11:21:04 GMT -5
The one hope is that Pomeranz finds his fastball velocity deeper into the season. He doesn't have a ton of innings logged this year. That may help him, but who knows with that arm? It seems to flair up a lot with injuries, like a ticking time bomb. Good luck to the next team that pays him any guaranteed money. Pomeranz has generally sat 91 throughout his career. He was just barely above 90 during his breakout campaign in 2016. He can absolutely have success sitting 90, because he’s done it. A tick or two might help, but his FB is elite in terms of spin, which is a big part of his K rate despite pedestrian velocity. He just needs his CB command and to use his cutter effectively, imo. Now, if he’s down to sitting 88, then that’s a problem. |
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Post by huskies15 on Jul 19, 2018 11:26:44 GMT -5
Tanner Houck has turned a corner here. Great to see him turn it around and showcase the goods recently!
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