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7/20-7/22 Red Sox @ Tigers Series Thread
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 21, 2018 8:41:07 GMT -5
Hembree warmed up in the 6th and was used in the 7th against lousy hitters, so it's hard to know how much to make of that.
What they could do is mix and match him, Thornburg, Brasier, and Workman in the 7th based on their matchup projections, while trying to get Kelly back on track in low leverage. Meanwhile, they can see if one of the quartet seizes the 7th.
Folks are probably surprised to see that Kelly has actually been above average in consistency and less inconsistent than Barnes (according to the simple metric I cooked up earlier), but that's because you notice the bad outings of a guy who is streaky more than those who scatter them. Inconsistent and streaky is probably better than inconsistent at random. If they can get Kelly back into his good groove, he's a valuable guy.
Meanwhile, with Holt likely out for a few days, I wonder whether they'll send Poyner down and select Phillips. They can move Pedroia to the 60-day DL.
Better yet, there's no reason not to trade for Dozier right now.
I’d rather have someone like Iglesias who can play SS and 3rd than Dozier. Going to be tough to win today with Johnson going and Devers isnt back yet.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 21, 2018 8:48:49 GMT -5
Sale is set up to open the 4-game MFY series. He'll be pitching on regular rest Sunday after throwing just 9 pitches in his last start, so there's no need to flop him and Porcello.
The MFY rotation now projects as Sale, Porcello, Pomeranz, Price, all on an extra day's rest, but they have the option of skipping Pomeranz and going Price, Johnson in games 3 and 4. Pomeranz will have had two starts (@ Bal, Min) to show that he's better than BJ.
Meanwhile, the Yankees have lined up Tanaka, Severino, Sabathia, and Luis Cessa, who is apparently coming up to take Domingo German's rotation slot on Wednesday in Tampa, after two outstanding starts for Scranton (13 6 1 1 1 14). Unlike Pomeranz, he'll have just one start to prove he's better than the alternative, Sonny Gray, who starts Thursday vs. KC. They have an off day on Monday the 30th and then have Cessa and Gray scheduled to pitch against the O's immediately before facing us. If they'd rather have Gray pitch the 4th game, they'd have to flop them then.
The Yankees will probably acquire someone before Cessa gets a sniff at the Sox. I had that thought, and then forgot these games are in August! That does seem likely, and squeezing in the acquisition might change the whole rotation. Justus Sheffield (who is starting today for the first time since 7/8) is also lined up to start the first game in Baltimore the day of the deadline.
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Post by soxin8 on Jul 21, 2018 9:25:58 GMT -5
Shucks, you really expect Lin to turn that double play. I'm ready to see what Brandon Phillips can do. Is there anyone besides me who would like to see what Tony Renda can do? He looked great when I saw him in Hartford and has been getting two hits a game since his promotion to Pawtucket.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 21, 2018 9:31:52 GMT -5
Looking at Buster Olney's rundown of possible SP trade targets (see the thread for the link), Mike Fiers is probably almost certainly the most desirable guy out there (of the guys Olney lists). Were they to get him, he'd probably face Sale in game 1 of the early August showdown series. I'll have to ask Alanis Morissette whether it's ironic that he's starting against us tonight. But it certainly makes the game extra interesting.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 21, 2018 9:36:14 GMT -5
Which makes me ask - why is there a rule that if 1b is already occupied the batter can't be safe at 1st on a wild pitch K even if the runner can move up all he wants? That makes no sense to me. I knew the rule. Apparently NESN didn't for a few minutes as their graphic had 1st and 3rd with none out before correcting themselves to 3rd with 1 out. It just seems like a stupid rule that makes no sense. It certainly helped the Sox today, but I just don't follow the logic. Does anybody else here get it? I always wondered the same thing - turns out it's to prevent the defense from turning a double play. Kind of like the infield fly rule. linkThank you! I never knew that. It seems kind of like an antiquated rule, but now I understand why it's there. Kind of hard for a catcher to fake it (drop it to get a DP going) with the way the ball is being pitched now. I just learned something I never knew - after watching the game for more than 40 years! Thanks!! Hope to see more posts from you!
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Post by telson13 on Jul 21, 2018 10:21:08 GMT -5
I always wondered the same thing - turns out it's to prevent the defense from turning a double play. Kind of like the infield fly rule. linkThank you! I never knew that. It seems kind of like an antiquated rule, but now I understand why it's there. Kind of hard for a catcher to fake it (drop it to get a DP going) with the way the ball is being pitched now. I just learned something I never knew - after watching the game for more than 40 years! Thanks!! Hope to see more posts from you! I had a friend ask me this years ago, and it was a cool bit of baseball trivia: Do you know the six ways a batter can get on base? #6 is incredibly obscure. Edit, that’s a hitter in the box, not via substitutions of course.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 21, 2018 11:16:05 GMT -5
Thank you! I never knew that. It seems kind of like an antiquated rule, but now I understand why it's there. Kind of hard for a catcher to fake it (drop it to get a DP going) with the way the ball is being pitched now. I just learned something I never knew - after watching the game for more than 40 years! Thanks!! Hope to see more posts from you! I had a friend ask me this years ago, and it was a cool bit of baseball trivia: Do you know the six ways a batter can get on base? #6 is incredibly obscure. Edit, that’s a hitter in the box, not via substitutions of course.So like taking all your clothes off and running onto the field isn't one way? lol hit, walk, error, hbp, catcher interference and strikeout that isn't caught I must be missing something because that seemed easy.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 21, 2018 11:25:45 GMT -5
Devers is going to be activated. Poyner is going down after tonight's game. I was going to say "oh, good!," but is it ever good when Nunez is moving back to 2B? No. Negative. Not at all. Never. I apologize if my answer is too nuanced.
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Post by bluechip on Jul 21, 2018 11:53:45 GMT -5
Looking at Buster Olney's rundown of possible SP trade targets (see the thread for the link), Mike Fiers is probably almost certainly the most desirable guy out there ( of the guys Olney lists). Were they to get him, he'd probably face Sale in game 1 of the early August showdown series. I'll have to ask Alanis Morissette whether it's ironic that he's starting against us tonight. But it certainly makes the game extra interesting. 4.49 SEIRA. 4.79 xFIP. 4.68 FIP. 88.8 fastball velocity (down .9 mph since last year). I don’t see how he could possibly be “almost certainly the most desirable option.” He seems particularly unappealing.
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dd
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Post by dd on Jul 21, 2018 15:05:40 GMT -5
Chapman in a meltdown in NY. 15 pitches, 3 strikes. Walked the last 2 on 8 pitches walking in a run in the process. Mets with bases loaded, none out, down 7-4.
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Post by bluechip on Jul 21, 2018 15:42:23 GMT -5
Red Sox lineup:
1. Mookie Betts RF 2. Andrew Benintendi LF 3. Xander Bogaerts SS 4. Mitch Moreland 1B 5. Steve Pearce DH 6. Rafael Devers 3B 7. Eduardo Nunez 2B 8. Jackie Bradley Jr. CF 9. Blake Swihart C
Pitching matchup: LHP Brian Johnson (1-2, 4.20) vs. RHP Mike Fiers (6-6, 3.70)
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 21, 2018 16:12:25 GMT -5
Anyone worried JD might be hurt?
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Post by patford on Jul 21, 2018 16:58:14 GMT -5
Anyone worried JD might be hurt? He was making a joke of being sore from running "into a wall" so it is safe to say he is a little bit hurt and probably nothing more than that. We hope.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 21, 2018 17:04:29 GMT -5
Looking at Buster Olney's rundown of possible SP trade targets (see the thread for the link), Mike Fiers is probably almost certainly the most desirable guy out there ( of the guys Olney lists). Were they to get him, he'd probably face Sale in game 1 of the early August showdown series. I'll have to ask Alanis Morissette whether it's ironic that he's starting against us tonight. But it certainly makes the game extra interesting. 4.49 SEIRA. 4.79 xFIP. 4.68 FIP. 88.8 fastball velocity (down .9 mph since last year). I don’t see how he could possibly be “almost certainly the most desirable option.” He seems particularly unappealing. I simply looked at bWAR and Statcast. The latter indicates that his .277 BABIP has been completely a skill this year, so he's a guy that will be very much underrated by metrics that assume there are no such skills. I like SIERA and probably should have looked at that as well.
He's also pitched to tougher-than-average hitters, and in hitters' ballparks, and in front of a bad defense.
Finally, his last 9 starts have been excellent, including games against NYY, Hou, Oak, and Cle (twice).
The one negative that's real and not included in bWAR is his high strand rate. He has insane bases empty / RISP splits, and that has little predictive value. But it's not a strong field and I think he's still one of the best options. I don't see an actual frontline option anywhere, among guys with 1 or less years of control.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 21, 2018 17:05:18 GMT -5
Anyone worried JD might be hurt? This is the danger of playing this guy in the outfield. He's not durable.
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Post by Addam603 on Jul 21, 2018 17:08:14 GMT -5
Anyone worried JD might be hurt? This is the danger of playing this guy in the outfield. He's not durable. Judging by the attitudes of everyone, it’s nothing serious. Day-to-day. The dude slammed into a wall. Anyone would be sore.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 21, 2018 17:12:32 GMT -5
4.49 SEIRA. 4.79 xFIP. 4.68 FIP. 88.8 fastball velocity (down .9 mph since last year). I don’t see how he could possibly be “almost certainly the most desirable option.” He seems particularly unappealing. I simply looked at bWAR and Statcast. The latter indicates that his .277 BABIP has been completely a skill this year, so he's a guy that will be very much underrated by metrics that assume there are no such skills. I like SIERA and probably should have looked at that as well.
He's also pitched to tougher-than-average hitters, and in hitters' ballparks, and in front of a bad defense.
Finally, his last 9 starts have been excellent, including games against NYY, Hou, Oak, and Cle (twice).
The one negative that's real and not included in bWAR is his high strand rate. He has insane bases empty / RISP splits, and that has little predictive value. But it's not a strong field and I think he's still one of the best options. I don't see an actual frontline option anywhere, among guys with 1 or less years of control.
I think I argued that a low BABIP skill exists here for about 100 posts and finally gave up. Of course that was about Henry Owens so... It's indisputable that it exists for knuckleball pitchers and elite relievers because they almost always beat their metrics.
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Post by wildsox on Jul 21, 2018 17:51:12 GMT -5
A catcher that can steal bases awesome
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 21, 2018 17:58:07 GMT -5
Wow, Mookie has made me literally scream louder than the last time about 5 times this year. What an amazing catch.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Jul 21, 2018 18:12:55 GMT -5
Wow, Mookie has made me literally scream louder than the last time about 5 times this year. What an amazing catch. The fact that he was so casual about such an awesome play is crazy. It’s like he and JBJ are having an unspoken contest to see who is the coolest dude after a spectacular catch.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 21, 2018 18:20:43 GMT -5
Between all these dings - Holt, Wright, JD - dents -ERod, Pomeranz, Vaz - and gargared for the year - Pedroia - we need some guys. Aug and Sept will be too brutal otherwise.
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on Jul 21, 2018 18:33:04 GMT -5
Looks like the offense didn’t feel like coming back from the ASB yet.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 21, 2018 18:44:07 GMT -5
Screw this football field of a park.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 21, 2018 18:54:45 GMT -5
Have a good night everybody.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 21, 2018 18:55:06 GMT -5
Looks like the offense didn’t feel like coming back from the ASB yet. Would’ve been nice to have JD up with these RISP situations
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