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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 6, 2018 7:48:02 GMT -5
Hot (or maybe not so hot) take: Tanner Houck with his original delivery and mechanics ( i.e., the Houck in his last 12 starts) would be make a Top 100 list but his dismal first half killed his overall numbers. Meh. He didn't even get onto BA's Top 20 Carolina League list (whereas Dalbec, Darwinzon and Chatham did), and when I asked about it in the chat, JJ Cooper said neither he nor Mata was close to making the list. I typically don't put a ton of stock into the league lists - don't expect Mata and Houck to fall behind all those guys when we do the season-end list soon - but a player even in contention to be a Top 100 prospect needs to make a top 20 Carolina League list, even if it's a shade harder now that they added 2 teams. |
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Post by ramireja on Oct 6, 2018 8:09:32 GMT -5
Hot (or maybe not so hot) take: Tanner Houck with his original delivery and mechanics ( i.e., the Houck in his last 12 starts) would be make a Top 100 list but his dismal first half killed his overall numbers. Meh. He didn't even get onto BA's Top 20 Carolina League list (whereas Dalbec, Darwinzon and Chatham did), and when I asked about it in the chat, JJ Cooper said neither he nor Mata was close to making the list. I typically don't put a ton of stock into the league lists - don't expect Mata and Houck to fall behind all those guys when we do the season-end list soon - but a player even in contention to be a Top 100 prospect needs to make a top 20 Carolina League list, even if it's a shade harder now that they added 2 teams. Yeah I hear you....my point though isn't that he was close to making the Top 100 list. His first half was so bad that he basically eliminated any chance of that after 11 starts. I'm only saying hypothetically, if he never pitched last year with tweaked mechanics and arsenal, and instead pitched all year like the pitcher he was down the stretch, then he would have been Top 100 material. I think typically that first round college picks who spend their entire first professional year in High-A and pitch to a 2.86 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and a 26.2% K-Rate probably find their way to some Top 100 lists. Again, he won't this year because of his first half, but I think he will also be underrated by most outlets because of that. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 6, 2018 8:36:22 GMT -5
I understand. I guess my point is that I think you're overestimating the amount that stats play into these versus the scouting on guys. It's not like the bullpen projection by many doesn't pre-date his being drafted.
Keep in mind that he was asked to mix the two-seam back in before his June 9 start, and he continued walking guys at way too high a rate for his next five starts. He figured something out in his last 8 starts, but it's not like there's necessarily a direct correlation where the switch flipped. Might some of that be figuring out how to incorporate the "old" and "new" Houck together? Sure, but I guess I'm saying I'm not sure that the Houck of his last 8 starts is the guy we'd have gotten all year but for the tweaks they were trying to make.
Keep in mind the work he wasn't doing wasn't all for naught - he kept the new breaking ball and didn't go ALL the way back to his old mechanics. He still got rid of a lot of the side-to-side movement in his old mechanics, which is a definite plus. Houck of his last 8 starts may or may not have happened with his old breaking ball and old mechanics. Think of it this way - it's not like Houck was the only pitcher in the minors being asked to work on specific things and not just rely on his best pitches. He was certainly a more extreme example, but I don't think we can separate out the positive changes from the ones that were scrapped - I feel like the process has to include all of them. They got a better pitcher out of the experiments they were trying with him, even if the big-ticket item may not have stuck.
For what it's worth, Darwinzon in his last 8 Salem starts was light years better than Houck in his. Like, I went in to make this point and was stunned at just how much better he was.
Darwinzon: 42.0-29-6-6-20-60
Houck: 48.0-38-15-14-10-50
I know this is ignoring the part of your point about a first-round pedigree and first pro season, but I guess I'm saying that there was room for him to be better in a small sample like that.
Anyway, point taken and I think he may have, say, appeared on a Carolina League list, but I think even then he may not have shown up on a Top 100 list outside of, maybe, the HMs.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 6, 2018 17:18:36 GMT -5
While I get the love fest over top 100 prospects, its overrated. For me its more about how many guys could be top 100 prospects. We have a crap load of those guys. Guys you can see helping the Red Sox in the future. The idea that DD killed the system with all his trades seems laughable right now. He's done a awesome job filling the system with prospects.
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soxin8
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Post by soxin8 on Jul 20, 2019 12:28:45 GMT -5
Bobby Dalbec should be in the top 100 with his power production and three plus tools Mata might be top 100 Houck might end up in the top 100 soon Once groome comes back he'll be top 100 Chavis working his way back into top 100 Casas, shawaryn, northcutt, decker, Flores, Diaz, Ockimey, Duran, Lopez all have serious potential as future top 100 guys I'm optimistic Dalbec top 100 check Mata top 100 check Chavis top 100 before graduating check Casas top 100 check Duran top 100 temporarily check |
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 20, 2019 17:22:57 GMT -5
Bobby Dalbec should be in the top 100 with his power production and three plus tools Mata might be top 100 Houck might end up in the top 100 soon Once groome comes back he'll be top 100 Chavis working his way back into top 100 Casas, shawaryn, northcutt, decker, Flores, Diaz, Ockimey, Duran, Lopez all have serious potential as future top 100 guys I'm optimistic Dalbec top 100 check Mata top 100 check Chavis top 100 before graduating check Casas top 100 check Duran top 100 temporarily check Where can I see this? The last list I saw was Casas as the only top 100 prospect at 97. Also, Chavis graduated before being listed I believe. |
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Post by bnich on Jul 20, 2019 18:24:29 GMT -5
Bobby Dalbec should be in the top 100 with his power production and three plus tools His power and his arm, obviously, are two. What is the third? I know it's different, but his college track record gives him a better chance of switching to the mound that Aybar. |
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Post by soxfan511 on Jul 20, 2019 20:47:24 GMT -5
His power and his arm, obviously, are two. What is the third? I know it's different, but his college track record gives him a better chance of switching to the mound that Aybar. Why would he ever do that? He’s got the potential ceiling of a middle of the lineup bat on a major league contender |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 21, 2019 2:38:16 GMT -5
I know it's different, but his college track record gives him a better chance of switching to the mound that Aybar. Why would he ever do that? He’s got the potential ceiling of a middle of the lineup bat on a major league contender If that was his true ceiling offensively, on top of being a plus defender, he'd be a much higher rated prospect than fringe top 100. Joey Gallo was a top 10 prospect at one point. |
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Post by caseytins on Jul 21, 2019 9:48:20 GMT -5
Dalbec top 100 check Mata top 100 check Chavis top 100 before graduating check Casas top 100 check Duran top 100 temporarily check Where can I see this? The last list I saw was Casas as the only top 100 prospect at 97. Also, Chavis graduated before being listed I believe. I think the original poster was using BA rankings. Casas has moved up to #94 on MLB due to a few prospects graduating. |
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Post by soxfan511 on Jul 22, 2019 12:19:54 GMT -5
Baseball America came out with a new top 100
Whom from the Red Sox made it?
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Post by RedSoxStats on Jul 22, 2019 12:31:20 GMT -5
Casas:75
Mata:89
Dalbec:96
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Post by soxfan511 on Jul 22, 2019 13:06:57 GMT -5
very impressive and well deserved what does BA have for the following grades dalbec power? casas power? casas hit tool? mata fb, ct, curve? |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 24, 2019 17:31:57 GMT -5
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Post by soxfan511 on Jul 24, 2019 20:18:11 GMT -5
Are you saying I have to pay to see it? |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 24, 2019 20:48:07 GMT -5
Yes it is. That link goes to a one-paragraph blurb and then literally says "In order to access this exclusive content you must have a Baseball America Account" |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 24, 2019 22:04:59 GMT -5
Huh, I wasn't logged in, I didn't think, because I could see the link to log in. Sorry about that.
At any rate, we're going to respect their pay wall. Whatever on the ranks, but please do not copy specifics from their scouting report onto the forum.
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