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8/1 Gameday Thread: Duran to Drive
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Post by benjgc on Aug 1, 2018 20:47:33 GMT -5
Game called in the top of the seventh. And to widewordofsport, as somebody who's seen every one of his games this season, you are dead wrong.
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Post by soxfan511 on Aug 1, 2018 21:30:56 GMT -5
Dalbec First Half .218 .351 .477 .828 Second Half .311 .400 .697 1.097 Nearly identical 32% K rate though. I still thinks hes trade bait at best. He’s a potential 30 home run, .800 + OPS guy in the majors...I would say more than trade bait. He has two plus plus tools and serious potential for a third plus tool
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Post by ramireja on Aug 1, 2018 22:14:00 GMT -5
Jhonathan Diaz with another nice outing, albeit in a loss: 7IP 4H 1ER 1BB 9K
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Post by soxfan511 on Aug 2, 2018 0:01:00 GMT -5
Game called in the top of the seventh. And to widewordofsport, as somebody who's seen every one of his games this season, you are dead wrong. I agree with you. Mass live had a nice article on dalbec Bobby Dalbec crushed two home runs over 400 feet this past July , including a 414-foot, 109 mph towering shot with a ridiculous 40 degree launch angle. Dalbec's July 10 home run went 440 feet and 114 mph with a 37 degree launch angle. "We like him a great deal," Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told MassLive.com. "There are not many people who have his type of power. He's really got tremendous power. Plus, plus power. He can play defense at third base. Of course he's got a really good arm because he used to pitch." The 6-foot-4, 225-pound Dalbec --- has broken multiple High-A Salem records. "Earlier in the year he was striking out too much, chasing too many pitches," Dombrowski said. "Starting to be better at that. You know you're going to get some strikeouts with him. But he's also a guy that you get strikeouts but you also get power. So you're willing to take some strikeouts for the power that he gives you. And he's cutting those down, too."
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 2, 2018 2:12:53 GMT -5
Game called in the top of the seventh. And to widewordofsport, as somebody who's seen every one of his games this season, you are dead wrong. I'm not going to take an official stance on whether or not I think Dalbec is a future big leaguer or not, because I'm still figuring that out, and obviously having seen every game of his you have a better idea of what he looks like than most of us. But I think having seen every game of his, working for the team he plays for, it's not inconceivable that you'd grow attached to the guy and overlook the faults in favor of the good you see. From what I've gathered from your posting history, you don't seem to have a lot of objectivity in your analysis. When you defend stuff like walk numbers from Houck, for example, by saying he got screwed by bad calls, maybe you're right but that happens to every pitcher at every level in baseball at some point or another, it really isn't that consequential. While calling him "trade bait" was a bit harsh I think his general point that this power surge may have more value in the perceptions of other teams than it may have to the Red Sox in the future has merit, and calling him "dead wrong" is perhaps a bit too snarky in return. I'm not making this post as an attempt to insult you or discourage you from posting in the future. It's really enjoyable to get a consistent firsthand report from games that many of us don't get to go to, especially not since I live on the West Coast. I'm just saying this to let you know, at least for me, I may not be speaking for anyone else, that if all you do is talk about how great these players are, it starts to lose its impact.
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Post by sibbysisti on Aug 2, 2018 5:53:54 GMT -5
I, for one, and I know I speak for many on this board, really appreciate what Ben Gellman brings to this site. The fact that he not only broadcasts Salem games, but does the post game write up is so valuable to those who don't get the opportunity to watch Carolina League Games. Same goes for Jensen in Greenville.
Keep up the good reports, Ben.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 2, 2018 5:58:54 GMT -5
I, for one, and I know I speak for many on this board, really appreciate what Ben Gellman brings to this site. The fact that he not only broadcasts Salem games, but does the post game write up is so valuable to those who don't get the opportunity to watch Carolina League Games. Same goes for Jensen in Greenville. Keep up the good reports, Ben. two
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 2, 2018 8:11:17 GMT -5
I agree strongly that Ben's insight adds a ton to the forums - it's great to have a first hand look anytime anything is going on, particularly as it relates to players we don't hear as much about. And Ben's preparation and knowledge of the players is totally evident - and, if you listen to enough minor league broadcasts, you'll quickly discover not the norm.
It's also true that watching a team every day builds up our attachments to a player. The way baseball works, it's more fun if you do, frankly. I watched Lew Ford every day when he was in Rochester and quickly became president of the Lew Ford Fan Club. And having seen Dalbec in person, I quickly got excited about him, too - there are very, very few players who the ball jumps off the bat like it does off of his. It's not just power, it's this monstrous extreme power where he pulls a ball 425 feet and it looks like he's playing against little leaguers. I don't even know what to compare it to - it's a little like, remember when Jose Canseco would absolutely connect, and his swing was so powerful and the ball would just fly? Dalbec has, like, Jose Canseco power, and I'm not someone who is just going to throw that around. His power is awesome.
He's also going to strike out 160 times in the Carolina League as a 23-year-old 2016 college draftee, which is just straight-up too much. And I think it's important to not lose sight of that - which can be hard to do when you're watching him hit bombs every day that nobody else in the Carolina League can measure up to, plus batting practice, plus talking to him, etc. That's why some of the best analysis comes from people who don't watch a team every day, and can step back and break things down without preconception. At it's core, that's the whole "stats vs. scouts" dichotomy, right? "I see him every day, his power is awesome!" "Yes it is, but..."
There are reasons to think he's the best prospect in the system, and there are good reasons to think that it's a good idea to deal him before he's exposed to Double-A pitchers who can control secondaries. He might be the most polarizing player I've seen come through the system in my time here. The only one I'd compare in terms of someone whose strengths and weaknesses are so extreme and so evident is Michael Kopech, and even that's not comparable because the path for pitchers is so much less linear than it is for hitters. But yeah, there is a lot of space for reasonable people to disagree here.
But most importantly, I'm happy we don't have a deepjohn equivalent for Dalbec on the forum, who spends countless hours posting insane rantings about how his weaknesses are actually strengths.
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Post by Costigan on Aug 2, 2018 8:31:56 GMT -5
But most importantly, I'm happy we don't have a deepjohn equivalent for Dalbec on the forum, who spends countless hours posting insane rantings about how his weaknesses are actually strengths. Man do I miss those DeepJohn and Kopech days.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 2, 2018 8:37:20 GMT -5
But most importantly, I'm happy we don't have a deepjohn equivalent for Dalbec on the forum, who spends countless hours posting insane rantings about how his weaknesses are actually strengths. Man do I miss those DeepJohn and Kopech days. In the same way I will miss changing diapers once my son is out of them.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 2, 2018 8:52:40 GMT -5
Jason Place for me except the power never translated to games. Imagine if he could hit a curve.
LOL, sidenote, there' a decent chance I will go to my grave never having changed a diaper.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 2, 2018 9:40:43 GMT -5
Jason Place for me except the power never translated to games. Imagine if he could hit a curve. LOL, sidenote, there' a decent chance I will go to my grave never having changed a diaper. Jesus, now you've got me thinking of a hypothetical Bobby Dalbec-in-Lancaster season. Which video game had an unlockable moon stadium, with moon physics? Was that MLB The Show? It would be that.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 2, 2018 9:47:03 GMT -5
Jason Place for me except the power never translated to games. Imagine if he could hit a curve. LOL, sidenote, there' a decent chance I will go to my grave never having changed a diaper. Jesus, now you've got me thinking of a hypothetical Bobby Dalbec-in-Lancaster season. Which video game had an unlockable moon stadium, with moon physics? Was that MLB The Show? It would be that. The jet stream in Lancaster is to RF not left. The high dessert altitude and lack of humidity would be interesting though.
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Post by benjgc on Aug 2, 2018 10:54:02 GMT -5
I agree strongly that Ben's insight adds a ton to the forums - it's great to have a first hand look anytime anything is going on, particularly as it relates to players we don't hear as much about. And Ben's preparation and knowledge of the players is totally evident - and, if you listen to enough minor league broadcasts, you'll quickly discover not the norm. It's also true that watching a team every day builds up our attachments to a player. The way baseball works, it's more fun if you do, frankly. I watched Lew Ford every day when he was in Rochester and quickly became president of the Lew Ford Fan Club. And having seen Dalbec in person, I quickly got excited about him, too - there are very, very few players who the ball jumps off the bat like it does off of his. It's not just power, it's this monstrous extreme power where he pulls a ball 425 feet and it looks like he's playing against little leaguers. I don't even know what to compare it to - it's a little like, remember when Jose Canseco would absolutely connect, and his swing was so powerful and the ball would just fly? Dalbec has, like, Jose Canseco power, and I'm not someone who is just going to throw that around. His power is awesome. He's also going to strike out 160 times in the Carolina League as a 23-year-old 2016 college draftee, which is just straight-up too much. And I think it's important to not lose sight of that - which can be hard to do when you're watching him hit bombs every day that nobody else in the Carolina League can measure up to, plus batting practice, plus talking to him, etc. That's why some of the best analysis comes from people who don't watch a team every day, and can step back and break things down without preconception. At it's core, that's the whole "stats vs. scouts" dichotomy, right? "I see him every day, his power is awesome!" "Yes it is, but..." There are reasons to think he's the best prospect in the system, and there are good reasons to think that it's a good idea to deal him before he's exposed to Double-A pitchers who can control secondaries. He might be the most polarizing player I've seen come through the system in my time here. The only one I'd compare in terms of someone whose strengths and weaknesses are so extreme and so evident is Michael Kopech, and even that's not comparable because the path for pitchers is so much less linear than it is for hitters. But yeah, there is a lot of space for reasonable people to disagree here. But most importantly, I'm happy we don't have a deepjohn equivalent for Dalbec on the forum, who spends countless hours posting insane rantings about how his weaknesses are actually strengths. I'm certainly not one to argue that Dalbec will ever be Joe Cronin with the strikeouts. I can tell you that his approach at the plate is way more nuanced than "SWING HARD AT EVERYTHING". It's not for nothing that he's second in the league in walks; it's not just fear/respect from opposing pitchers. He's also got a rocket arm, and his glove is pretty damn solid too. He's been part of 29 double plays this season; the next-highest total for a CL third baseman is 16. Most importantly, though, he always wants to improve. The thoughtfulness and discipline he puts into his work is damn impressive. TL,DR: He's definitely not just "trade bait."
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 2, 2018 11:34:48 GMT -5
]I'm certainly not one to argue that Dalbec will ever be Joe Cronin with the strikeouts. I can tell you that his approach at the plate is way more nuanced than "SWING HARD AT EVERYTHING". It's not for nothing that he's second in the league in walks; it's not just fear/respect from opposing pitchers. He's also got a rocket arm, and his glove is pretty damn solid too. He's been part of 29 double plays this season; the next-highest total for a CL third baseman is 16. Most importantly, though, he always wants to improve. The thoughtfulness and discipline he puts into his work is damn impressive. TL,DR: He's definitely not just "trade bait." With all due respect, I think you're being defensive unnecessarily. Nobody at any point has said that his approach was to hack at everything, nobody thinks he needs to have Joe Cronin-esque contact rates, and certainly nobody has questioned his work ethic, which has drawn raves. I would be really, really surprised to find out that anyone here isn't rooting for him to be for real. But... he leads the Carolina League in strikeouts, and he leads it by a lot, and he leads it in 2018 after being a 2016 college draftee. There's a pretty long and in-depth discussion about his approach in the Dalbec thread, and his swinging strike rate is very high for a player who takes as many pitches as he does. So there are red flags here. That doesn't mean he can't overcome them, obviously. But the skepticism that some have is reasonable and shouldn't be dismissed out of hand. It is easy, at times, to talk about real players who are working their tails off as "trade bait" or "non-prospects," and I agree that verbiage can be overly harsh. But we're also here to discuss the players we see, warts and all, and do it honestly. It's not a personal attack - I want every single guy in the system to surpass the expectations I have for them.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 2, 2018 11:40:03 GMT -5
I'm withholding judgment until he gets to AA. If his K's don't go up there, I'll be completely on board. But AA is the hardest jump other than AAA > majors.
I'd be very hesitant to trade him at this point.
What I like most about this last draft is that it seems like we drafted several more possible Dalbecs. (Casas, Decker, Cottam, Granberg, Northcut, Howlett) Obviously not completely similar, but all mention plus or better power and most mention questionable hit tool.
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Post by benjgc on Aug 2, 2018 11:53:13 GMT -5
]I'm certainly not one to argue that Dalbec will ever be Joe Cronin with the strikeouts. I can tell you that his approach at the plate is way more nuanced than "SWING HARD AT EVERYTHING". It's not for nothing that he's second in the league in walks; it's not just fear/respect from opposing pitchers. He's also got a rocket arm, and his glove is pretty damn solid too. He's been part of 29 double plays this season; the next-highest total for a CL third baseman is 16. Most importantly, though, he always wants to improve. The thoughtfulness and discipline he puts into his work is damn impressive. TL,DR: He's definitely not just "trade bait." With all due respect, I think you're being defensive unnecessarily. Nobody at any point has said that his approach was to hack at everything, nobody thinks he needs to have Joe Cronin-esque contact rates, and certainly nobody has questioned his work ethic, which has drawn raves. I would be really, really surprised to find out that anyone here isn't rooting for him to be for real. But... he leads the Carolina League in strikeouts, and he leads it by a lot, and he leads it in 2018 after being a 2016 college draftee. There's a pretty long and in-depth discussion about his approach in the Dalbec thread, and his swinging strike rate is very high for a player who takes as many pitches as he does. So there are red flags here. That doesn't mean he can't overcome them, obviously. But the skepticism that some have is reasonable and shouldn't be dismissed out of hand. It is easy, at times, to talk about real players who are working their tails off as "trade bait" or "non-prospects," and I agree that verbiage can be overly harsh. But we're also here to discuss the players we see, warts and all, and do it honestly. It's not a personal attack - I want every single guy in the system to surpass the expectations I have for them. Nothing that you said struck me as being harsh or a personal attack; your point was well-reasoned and 100% fair. I agree there are major hurdles to overcome if he's going to reach his potential.
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Post by benjgc on Aug 2, 2018 12:01:06 GMT -5
I'm withholding judgment until he gets to AA. If his K's don't go up there, I'll be completely on board. But AA is the hardest jump other than AAA > majors. I'd be very hesitant to trade him at this point. What I like most about this last draft is that it seems like we drafted several more possible Dalbecs. (Casas, Decker, Cottam, Granberg, Northcut, Howlett) Obviously not completely similar, but all mention plus or better power and most mention questionable hit tool. You're absolutely right about the jump from High-A to AA being the toughest other than X --> MLB. The standard of play at AA has become remarkably high compared to what it was even 20 years ago. If he can hold the K rate steady, or even trim it, that's a great sign.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 2, 2018 12:56:52 GMT -5
I'm certainly very intrigued by Bobby Dalbec and his power potential.
I do think he might be trade bait down the road but not because of some personal failing of his, but more due to the nature of Dave Dombrowski's trading style and the fact that he has a very young Rafael Devers ahead of him already in Boston, and I would anticipate by time Dalbec is ready for the majors assuming that he does clear his hurdles, that Devers might be a monster on offense in the majors by then.
Given the Sox high payroll and perhaps need for young pitching Dalbec could become a player other teams seek in a deal.
Another possibility could be that in a couple of seasons perhaps (probably 3), Dalbec could force a 24 year old Devers to 1b, before a Triston Casas would be ready.
It's all a guess at this point because as others have pointed out the strikeouts are still high. But I do like to think there are some mitigating factors.
He was injured last season, and maybe I'm wrong here, but perhaps some of that or some rustiness carried into the season, and he was whiffing at a ridiculously high rate, but now he's healthy and locked in and cutting down his Ks, and with that his BA has risen, and maybe, just maybe that's who we see at Portland next season, and if we do he could find himself up in Pawtucket before long not far away from cracking the majors.
In Dalbec I see an extreme three true outcomes kind of guy. If he doesn't curb the Ks, he could be a Joey Gallo type where he's hitting around .200 with perhaps 35 - 40 homers in his peak with about 60 walks and 200 plus Ks in a full year. Or if he does, maybe he can hit .240 with 40 - 45 homers in his peak season with about 75 walks and between 175 - 200 Ks in a full year, a guy with an OPS in the .825 - .850 range along with strong defense at 3b. And that latter version is a really good player, the kind of guy that I would think the Sox could consider moving Devers from 3b to 1b if 1b is still a need by then.
Either way I look forward to seeing what he can do in AA. And I could be wrong here too, but I suspect that Dombrowski wants to see it to. I'm going to guess that Dalbec's name has come up quite often in their search for a reliever and he's still here.
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Post by soxfan511 on Aug 2, 2018 16:17:45 GMT -5
I'm certainly very intrigued by Bobby Dalbec and his power potential. I do think he might be trade bait down the road but not because of some personal failing of his, but more due to the nature of Dave Dombrowski's trading style and the fact that he has a very young Rafael Devers ahead of him already in Boston, and I would anticipate by time Dalbec is ready for the majors assuming that he does clear his hurdles, that Devers might be a monster on offense in the majors by then. Given the Sox high payroll and perhaps need for young pitching Dalbec could become a player other teams seek in a deal. Another possibility could be that in a couple of seasons perhaps (probably 3), Dalbec could force a 24 year old Devers to 1b, before a Triston Casas would be ready. It's all a guess at this point because as others have pointed out the strikeouts are still high. But I do like to think there are some mitigating factors. He was injured last season, and maybe I'm wrong here, but perhaps some of that or some rustiness carried into the season, and he was whiffing at a ridiculously high rate, but now he's healthy and locked in and cutting down his Ks, and with that his BA has risen, and maybe, just maybe that's who we see at Portland next season, and if we do he could find himself up in Pawtucket before long not far away from cracking the majors. In Dalbec I see an extreme three true outcomes kind of guy. If he doesn't curb the Ks, he could be a Joey Gallo type where he's hitting around .200 with perhaps 35 - 40 homers in his peak with about 60 walks and 200 plus Ks in a full year. Or if he does, maybe he can hit .240 with 40 - 45 homers in his peak season with about 75 walks and between 175 - 200 Ks in a full year, a guy with an OPS in the .825 - .850 range along with strong defense at 3b. And that latter version is a really good player, the kind of guy that I would think the Sox could consider moving Devers from 3b to 1b if 1b is still a need by then. Either way I look forward to seeing what he can do in AA. And I could be wrong here too, but I suspect that Dombrowski wants to see it to. I'm going to guess that Dalbec's name has come up quite often in their search for a reliever and he's still here. Great post. One thing about strikeouts. Some of baseball historys greatest all time power hitters used to lead the league in strikeouts. Do strikeouts really matter if he guy can hit 40-45 home runs, walk 75 plus times and have an OPS above .800? With plus defense and a plus plus arm?
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 2, 2018 18:33:51 GMT -5
Yes and no.
Strikeouts are no worse than any other out (give or take hundredths of a run here and there over the course of time), so a player with 150 strikeouts and a player with 80 strikeouts with otherwise identical stats are basically the same value.
BUT, it is also the case that there is a minimum amount a player needs to be making contact to contribute. If a player struck out 300 times per season, it would be hard to tap into enough power to get to 40 homers in a season, and frankly it'd be hard enough to supplement even a .250 Iso. There's a chance that Dalbec is something like a .150/.225/.400 player, and that's just not going to get him the ABs he needs to get that power. Realistically he needs to strike out less than 200 times in a season to make enough contact to contribute. And if he's going to strike out 30% of the time in High A as a 23-year-old, less than 200 strikeouts is hard to guarantee.
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