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8/10-8/12 Red Sox @ Orioles Series Thread
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 13, 2018 11:48:38 GMT -5
Are you seriously using talk radio as supporting argument ?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 13, 2018 12:05:28 GMT -5
Bogaerts, Sale, Porcello, JD all hitting free agency. Bogaerts and JD are Boras clients. Then Betts the year after, and no prospect help on the way in the short term. I understand there are people out there who have this mind set that the Red Sox have basically no spending limit but lets not forget this is a business. The good prospects we do have are either years away or at positions we already have covered. I understand trades can be made but at a certain point we have to reload the farm system a bit. Porcello is not going to close our window. Taking Martinez, Betts, and Sale to 30 million a year and Bogaerts to 25 million a year will add 61 million to our payroll. Over the next two years we have over 40 million coming off from Ramirez and Sandoval. You need to account for what the players are currently making also. For example Martinez won't really cost that much more, just more years as he makes almost 24 million already. Its not about a spending limit and I really don't even see an issue in like the next 5 years. Its after that if these guys start to decline, the back-end of these deals could be really bad. We have more than enough money to sign the core guys though and I'm not talking about if we push are payroll to 300 million either. Mainly because we have over 40 million on the payroll from players not even on the team.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 13, 2018 12:29:11 GMT -5
So we're going to have a 260 million dollar payroll?
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 13, 2018 12:49:05 GMT -5
Are you seriously using talk radio as supporting argument ? I post things for information - it is important to read - this should not be an echo chamber. So when I post info, it doesn't mean I agree or disagree with the opinion. But I read widely, and a LOT. Do we really think that those of us armchair coaches and baseball watchers are the only ones with valid opinions? Edited to add that the occasional whiff of "elitism" in some of the posts here are regrettable and I am sure keep lots of lurkers from posting.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 13, 2018 12:53:39 GMT -5
So we're going to have a 260 million dollar payroll? I wouldn't object to that.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 13, 2018 12:57:36 GMT -5
Are you seriously using talk radio as supporting argument ? I post things for information - it is important to read - this should not be an echo chamber. So when I post info, it doesn't mean I agree or disagree with the opinion. But I read widely, and a LOT. Do we really think that those of us armchair coaches and baseball watchers are the only ones with valid opinions? Edited to add that the occasional whiff of "elitism" in some of the posts here are regrettable and I am sure keep lots of lurkers from posting. To be fair, its getting a little old that people keep whining about the bullpen when Dave did the best he could to improve the team and did it without giving up much, although Beeks has turned it around recently and had a couple good outings it seems like. Herrera and Britton, the two guys they were also linked to, haven't been good since the deadline. Soria is hurt.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 13, 2018 12:57:59 GMT -5
So we're going to have a 260 million dollar payroll? If I'm understanding you're saying that UMass is subtracting 40 million for Sandoval and Hanley and adding 61 million dollars to arrive at approximately 260 million? That's not what UMass is quite saying. The Sox will likely not bring back Kimbrel. Likely Porcello is the least likely of Sale/Bogaerts/Martinez to be re-signed as far as priority goes. Betts salary jump wouldn't occur until the 2021 season (as opposed to 2019 and 2020). Joe Kelly and Drew Pomermanz, like Kimbrel, are likely off the books as well, so it's not just subtracting 40 million? The question is how the Sox replace the players they let go if their farm system isn't ready to supply players. You could sign Eovaldi for less, let him share the rotation with Porcello for one year and then let Porcello go and hope Wright or Johnson takes his spot. You could do that without bringing back Eovaldi. You could give Barnes the job and hope Feltman is ready to contribute next year and hope that Thornburg is back to full strength, perhaps sign a lesser reliever for a year until Feltman or Barnes are ready to take the closer job. I see what UMass is trying to say as far as being able to afford the most crucial pieces. I do wonder if Harper will get a $35 million/year contract further upping Mookie's market to well beyond 30 million/year. And yes the Sox would need a CF to replace JBJ for after 2020. At that point it would make sense to replace him anyways as 30 year CF don't get better defensively and his offense might or might not hold up at that point. Maybe by then Jaren Duran is knocking down the door (unlikely, but who would put it past him at this point?).
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 13, 2018 13:05:17 GMT -5
So we're going to have a 260 million dollar payroll? Are you joking? You can't just add 20 million to this years payroll, without taking away the salaries of the guys leaving. You take off Porcello's 21 million and have Wright, Johnson, Shawaryn, heck maybe even Hernandez take his spot after next year. Take off 8.5 million for Pomeranz. Take off Kimbrels 13 million because you said you wouldn't resign him. You can save 6.2 million by letting Holt and Nunez go and using Marco Hernandez, Lin or Chatham as your utility guys. You can save 6.5 million by letting Moreland go and replacing him with Chavis, Dalbec or Ockimey. Joe Kelly's 3.9 million comes off the books. Etc etc etc. There are a million ways to build a team and we haven't even talked about making trades. You could let Bogaerts go and trade for a guy or even sign a free agent for less than Bogaerts costs. A couple of guys you aren't even thinking about in the farm will step forward in the next few years, it always happens. Our window is not close to closing. Sure we won't have a 110 plus win team year in and year out, but that never happens anyways.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 13, 2018 13:05:56 GMT -5
I post things for information - it is important to read - this should not be an echo chamber. So when I post info, it doesn't mean I agree or disagree with the opinion. But I read widely, and a LOT. Do we really think that those of us armchair coaches and baseball watchers are the only ones with valid opinions? Edited to add that the occasional whiff of "elitism" in some of the posts here are regrettable and I am sure keep lots of lurkers from posting. To be fair, its getting a little old that people keep whining about the bullpen when Dave did the best he could to improve the team and did it without giving up much, although Beeks has turned it around recently and had a couple good outings it seems like. Herrera and Britton, the two guys they were also linked to, haven't been good since the deadline. Soria is hurt. I don't think it's "whining". The bullpen has been shaky. You might feel a ton of confidence when Hembree or Kelly come into the game or feel like Thornburg is back to his Milwaukee days, but not everybody feels that way. All I see is a lot of traffic on the bases and a lot of long counts, many of them which end up as walks. Dave tried to get a reliever that was in the level between Barnes and Kimbrel. Herrera fits that level and he'd be a Red Sox if the Nats didn't change their minds and decide to hold onto him. As it was he was injured which is why he didn't pitch well. Dombrowski didn't feel like spending chips to get a pitcher who was better than Hembree level. He's gambling that Thornburg is good enough to be a reasonable facsimile of what he was and he's gambling that Brasier, after a few good weeks, can be a pitcher who's better than Hembree but not necessarily as good as Barnes. Dombrowski's acquisition of Eovaldi might mitigate things somewhat because either he, and/or E-Rod and/or even Price could see time in the pen in October sort of the way Houston did it to cover up a less than stellar pen, which might be what's shaping up for the Sox. DDo didn't think the Familia's/Kelas of the world are really a step up from Hembree, or at least worth giving up assets for. That is something that is still up for debate. Obviously if Brasier asserts himself and the starters turned relievers do the job, then Dombrowski wins the gamble. If the pen struggles against the league's best teams and it costs them games in October then I don't think it's going to change the minds of those who were "whining". To be truthful, if Kimbrel isn't dominant the way other closers for the Sox have been dominant (Fouke 04, Papelbon 07, Uehara 13), then they're going to run into some trouble in October. They need him to be at his best.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 13, 2018 13:13:57 GMT -5
How good is this team?
You can argue that the most competitive imaginable World Series matchup would be ...
The Red Sox intramural series, given the health of everyone, plus cloning technology that works selectively on people whose last name begins with "B." (Martinez can DH for both clubs without need for a clone.)
You split Moreland and Pearce, Pedroia and Kinsler, Devers and Nunez, Vazquez and Leon, and Swihart and Holt for the key bench guy.
More interestingly -- and this was the origin of the idea -- one team has a rotation of, say, Sale, Price, Porcello, and Velazquez, and the other has Rodriguez, Eovaldi, Wright, and Johnson. If you don't think Velazquez is a credible game 4 WS starter, two words: Al Nipper.
Cora would manage both clubs and draw from a common bullpen pool, including all the guys like Kelly and Workman who seem likely to be left off the actual roster. The advantage of this is that you get to try out Brasier as next year's closer in high-leverage situations.
(Of course, someone could actually do this with whatever simulation game is most popular now.)
Seriously, one big reason this team is on a pace to challenge the all-time W record is that even with Drew Pomeranz's collapse, they can fill two post-season rotations. And good ones.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 13, 2018 13:58:30 GMT -5
A lineup of Betts, Benintendi, Moreland, Martinez, Bogaerts, Devers, Kinsler, and Bradley with Sale pitching is unbelievable.
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 13, 2018 14:01:21 GMT -5
A lineup of Betts, Benintendi, Moreland, Martinez, Bogaerts, Devers, Kinsler, and Bradley with Sale pitching is unbelievable. That is a great line-up regardless of who is pitching!!
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 13, 2018 14:08:51 GMT -5
I like seeing how NY, Houston, Seattle and the A's are all starting to get closer to each other in the standings. While the Sox will be able to give rest to who needs it and limit the number of pitches thrown those 4 could find themselves in a dogfight to win every game.
It is all about going into the playoffs healthy and ready to compete. Right at the moment everything is looking great. With a healthy Kinsler and Devers and JBJ heating up this team can actually improve. Not to mention the starting pitching has been pretty lights out.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 13, 2018 14:36:56 GMT -5
A lineup of Betts, Benintendi, Moreland, Martinez, Bogaerts, Devers, Kinsler, and Bradley with Sale pitching is unbelievable. You could probably use a catcher, a resurgent (or emergent) Swihart fills the bill.
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Post by dmaineah on Aug 13, 2018 14:42:10 GMT -5
A lineup of Betts, Benintendi, Moreland, Martinez, Bogaerts, Devers, Kinsler, and Bradley with Sale pitching is unbelievable. At home in the World Series, yea. But what about in the World Series in an NL park, Who/what position sits? JD needs to play 1B Betts Benintendi Martinez Bogaerts kinsler Devers Catcher Bradley Pitcher
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 13, 2018 15:06:10 GMT -5
A lineup of Betts, Benintendi, Moreland, Martinez, Bogaerts, Devers, Kinsler, and Bradley with Sale pitching is unbelievable. At home in the World Series, yea. But what about in the World Series in an NL park, Who/what position sits? JD needs to play 1B Betts Benintendi Martinez Bogaerts kinsler Devers Catcher Bradley Pitcher JD would likely play RF, with Mookie in center and Bradley sitting. At least the games wouldn't be in Fenway's RF. And Bradley would definitely come in at some point for defense.
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Post by dmaineah on Aug 13, 2018 15:39:23 GMT -5
At home in the World Series, yea. But what about in the World Series in an NL park, Who/what position sits? JD needs to play 1B Betts Benintendi Martinez Bogaerts kinsler Devers Catcher Bradley Pitcher JD would likely play RF, with Mookie in center and Bradley sitting. At least the games wouldn't be in Fenway's RF. And Bradley would definitely come in at some point for defense. So in a close game, let's say up by 1 or 2 runs in the 7th inning, their going to take J D Martinez's bat out of the line up and replace him with Bradley? Wouldn't you want to keeps Martinez's bat in the line up? I would
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 13, 2018 16:43:03 GMT -5
So we're going to have a 260 million dollar payroll? If I'm understanding you're saying that UMass is subtracting 40 million for Sandoval and Hanley and adding 61 million dollars to arrive at approximately 260 million? That's not what UMass is quite saying. The Sox will likely not bring back Kimbrel. Likely Porcello is the least likely of Sale/Bogaerts/Martinez to be re-signed as far as priority goes. Betts salary jump wouldn't occur until the 2021 season (as opposed to 2019 and 2020). Joe Kelly and Drew Pomermanz, like Kimbrel, are likely off the books as well, so it's not just subtracting 40 million? The question is how the Sox replace the players they let go if their farm system isn't ready to supply players. You could sign Eovaldi for less, let him share the rotation with Porcello for one year and then let Porcello go and hope Wright or Johnson takes his spot. You could do that without bringing back Eovaldi. You could give Barnes the job and hope Feltman is ready to contribute next year and hope that Thornburg is back to full strength, perhaps sign a lesser reliever for a year until Feltman or Barnes are ready to take the closer job. I see what UMass is trying to say as far as being able to afford the most crucial pieces. I do wonder if Harper will get a $35 million/year contract further upping Mookie's market to well beyond 30 million/year. And yes the Sox would need a CF to replace JBJ for after 2020. At that point it would make sense to replace him anyways as 30 year CF don't get better defensively and his offense might or might not hold up at that point. Maybe by then Jaren Duran is knocking down the door (unlikely, but who would put it past him at this point?). Some comments off the top of my head: - BR has Sale on a team option of $13.5 million next year. I feel safe in saying the Sox will jump all over that and not the $1 million buyout.
- Kelly, Kimbrel, and Pomeranz are the free agents in 2019. The emergence of Brasier probably means goodbye to fightin' Joe, and Pomeranz is likely gone as well. Eovaldi does make sense as his replacement. I don't personally think that Kimbrel will be signed for something approaching $20+ million a year. Paying out a 5% of your salary budget for 70 innings of work seems like a foolish way to run a team.
- Betts' salary jump occured last year. Though that was only stage 1 of his money lift-off, it was a ten-fold increase. He could easily break all arbitration records in 2019. Stage 2, as a free agent in 2021, may also set a few records.
- The only money the Sox have on contracts in 2020 amounts to a little less than $84 million. That includes the last of the payments to Sandoval ($5 million). You don't want to get too excited abut that as they'll have a pile of players in arb and a need to either resign or replace Porcello. Moreland is gone as well, but there do seem to be internal options in some combination from players in the majors and minors.
- Sale, Bogaerts, Holt and Thornburg are also free agents in 2020. I would hope the team makes a sincere effort to bring the first two back. Holt may be back on a reasonable contract. Thornburg is unlikely.
- 2021 is far enough away that I can't make it out through the fog. But I can cobble together estimates for 2020 and possible arb costs and post those. At some point I will.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,389
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Post by radiohix on Aug 13, 2018 16:59:27 GMT -5
Can we get a thread where those who wants to whine or share their concerns about relievers can go to and leave the gamethreads to those who wants to celebrate the awesomeness of this team? I mean, it's getting pretty annoying to have to go through all these negative comments! C'mon guys!
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 13, 2018 18:00:45 GMT -5
But, what about the kids?π
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Post by patford on Aug 13, 2018 18:26:59 GMT -5
At home in the World Series, yea. But what about in the World Series in an NL park, Who/what position sits? JD needs to play 1B Betts Benintendi Martinez Bogaerts kinsler Devers Catcher Bradley Pitcher JD would likely play RF, with Mookie in center and Bradley sitting. At least the games wouldn't be in Fenway's RF. And Bradley would definitely come in at some point for defense. It's not all that unlikely Betts would play 2B with Martinez in RF. Betts is said to have been ecstatic when he was allowed to play 2B a few games ago. I suppose it will depend on how whoever is at 2B is hitting at the time if the Sox reach the World Series.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 13, 2018 18:36:08 GMT -5
JD would likely play RF, with Mookie in center and Bradley sitting. At least the games wouldn't be in Fenway's RF. And Bradley would definitely come in at some point for defense. It's not all that unlikely Betts would play 2B with Martinez in RF. Betts is said to have been ecstatic when he was allowed to play 2B a few games ago. I suppose it will depend on how whoever is at 2B is hitting at the time if the Sox reach the World Series. I'd find that highly unlikely. Kinsler would have to be out of the picture, and they'd want to get Betts a fair amount of 2B in the regular season first.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 13, 2018 18:37:13 GMT -5
Are you seriously using talk radio as supporting argument ? I post things for information - it is important to read - this should not be an echo chamber. So when I post info, it doesn't mean I agree or disagree with the opinion. But I read widely, and a LOT. Do we really think that those of us armchair coaches and baseball watchers are the only ones with valid opinions? Edited to add that the occasional whiff of "elitism" in some of the posts here are regrettable and I am sure keep lots of lurkers from posting. I'm also pretty sure that the constant whining about the bullpen which is amongst baseball's best isn't doing much for readership. It's one thing to express that opinion, quite another to have people do it multiple times daily saying the exact same thing day after day after day. ADD: What radiohix said.
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Post by patford on Aug 13, 2018 18:40:31 GMT -5
It's not all that unlikely Betts would play 2B with Martinez in RF. Betts is said to have been ecstatic when he was allowed to play 2B a few games ago. I suppose it will depend on how whoever is at 2B is hitting at the time if the Sox reach the World Series. I'd find that highly unlikely. Kinsler would have to be out of the picture, and they'd want to get Betts a fair amount of 2B in the regular season first. Perhaps. The Boston Globe article I read indicated that Betts works at 2B frequently and absolutely loves the infield. I got the impression that given a choice he would prefer 2B. βI was kind of sad,β Betts said. βItβs something I had grown up playing and now I had to go do something else. [Friday night] was definitely a dream come true.β www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/08/03/years-later-mookie-betts-still-second-none/N4QKH82McaAPAIobZDMVFP/story.html
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 13, 2018 19:22:44 GMT -5
I'd find that highly unlikely. Kinsler would have to be out of the picture, and they'd want to get Betts a fair amount of 2B in the regular season first. Perhaps. The Boston Globe article I read indicated that Betts works at 2B frequently and absolutely loves the infield. I got the impression that given a choice he would prefer 2B. βI was kind of sad,β Betts said. βItβs something I had grown up playing and now I had to go do something else. [Friday night] was definitely a dream come true.β www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/08/03/years-later-mookie-betts-still-second-none/N4QKH82McaAPAIobZDMVFP/story.htmlRight, but it's not his choice. I'd be genuinely shocked if the folks with the decision power decided it was in the Sox best interests to do this. Even if Kinsler was out and you're looking at Brock Holt as your 2B option, is it really worth moving an elite defensive OF to 2B where he's doubtful to be much if any better than Holt defensively (potentially much worse), when you'd be keeping Bradley's bat in the lineup, which is similar overall in productivity to Holt's, and still deploying JDM in the OF? You might as well just sit JBJ, in my opinion. Bring him in when you're comfortable with a late lead and JDM's spot isn't due up for a while.
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