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8/10-8/12 Red Sox @ Orioles Series Thread
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 10, 2018 10:05:15 GMT -5
8/10 Red Sox (RHP Nathan Eovaldi 5-4, 3.38, 72.0 IP, 62K:9BB) @ Orioles (RHP Dylan Bundy 7-10, 4.38, 121.1 IP, 129K:39BB) 7:05 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 8/11 (1) Red Sox (LHP David Price 11-6, 3.93, 128.1 IP, 124K:39BB) @ Orioles (RHP Yefry Ramirez 1-4, 5.66, 35.0 IP, 35K:18BB) 1:00 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 8/11 (2) Red Sox (RHP William Cuevas** 8-6, 3.45, 117.1 IP, 102K:32BB) @ Orioles (TBA) 7:05 pm ET, NESN/WEEI 8/12 Red Sox (LHP Chris Sale 11-4, 2.04, 141.0 IP, 207K:33BB) @ Orioles (Alex Cobb 3-14, 5.55, 116.2 IP, 78K:31BB) 1:05 pm ET, NESN/WEEI **Statistics with Triple-A PawtucketMLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsA note regarding moderating of the gameday threads in 2018: As the disclaimer has always said, in the past, we have been very liberal in moderating the Gameday threads. They're meant to be a lot less formal than other threads on the forum, so to moderate them the same way would be silly. However, we do ask posters to maintain a certain level of decorum in these threads, and we plan on moderating the Gameday threads a little more actively this season. In particular, we ask that posters refrain from being overly repetitive with their posts (if you've made your point, let it go), refrain from monopolizing the discussion (if you are making more than a couple posts in a row, you probably need to slow down a little bit), and of course, follow the Ground Rules ( link). The point is to make these threads worth participating in and fun for all posters, from our long-time fixtures to people just signing up today. -The Management
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 10, 2018 10:05:46 GMT -5
The Orioles winning on Sunday would be about as much of an upset as a single baseball game can be.
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Post by soxfanatic on Aug 10, 2018 10:10:24 GMT -5
The Orioles winning on Sunday would be about as much of an upset as a single baseball game can be. YES, but Sale is coming of the DL and Cobb has a 3.19 FIP since the All Star break... |
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 10, 2018 10:10:56 GMT -5
The Orioles winning on Sunday would be about as much of an upset as a single baseball game can be. 538 Sports has that game as 75% chance of Red Sox winning which is about as high as it gets. |
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 10, 2018 10:14:24 GMT -5
The Orioles winning on Sunday would be about as much of an upset as a single baseball game can be. YES, but Sale is coming of the DL and Cobb has a 3.19 FIP since the All Star break... He's also a right-handed pitcher against one of the best lineups imaginable against right-handed pitching, going at Camden Yards on a team that has no other good players on it. |
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,298
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Post by radiohix on Aug 10, 2018 10:16:15 GMT -5
I hate double headers. Seems like no matter what the matchups are, you could never sweep.
But this team is so special so who knows?
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Post by kevfc89 on Aug 10, 2018 11:49:51 GMT -5
Mookie's cycle plus a walk yesterday bumped him up 0.5 fWAR to reach 7.5 total fWAR, tied for second in baseball with Jose Ramirez. Trout leads with 7.6 fWAR. Yet, Ramirez has played 113 games, Trout has played 109, and Mookie's right there having only played 96 games. He's way outpacing them on a WAR/per game basis; would love to see where he'd be had he not missed those couple weeks.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 10, 2018 11:58:32 GMT -5
The Sox should win at least 3. The Sox offense should go off in this ballpark.
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Post by Don Caballero on Aug 10, 2018 12:01:08 GMT -5
The Orioles rotation is some classic, classic stuff.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 10, 2018 12:09:21 GMT -5
 From 538 Sports |
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 10, 2018 12:15:30 GMT -5
Any update on who is starting the other half of the double header? Velazquez/Pomeranz as a bullpen game maybe? Or Cuevas/Haley with a spot start?
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 10, 2018 12:17:22 GMT -5
The only downside for me - all Baltimore games are blacked out - so it will be time with Joe Castig and WEEI for me. Can't wait!
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 10, 2018 12:20:12 GMT -5
Any update on who is starting the other half of the double header? Velazquez/Pomeranz as a bullpen game maybe? Or Cuevas/Haley with a spot start? Velazquez should be good for a inning or two, but I'm not sure he's available for much further than that. Porcello's bad start kind of messed up the Sox bullpen for this series. |
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Post by h11233 on Aug 10, 2018 13:41:43 GMT -5
From 538 Sports The "TBD" matchup is 70/30, while Eovaldi/Bundy is 68/32... So am I to infer that, all things being equal, they favor Bundy over Eovaldi? |
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 10, 2018 13:59:54 GMT -5
Seems like the Orioles scheduled a double header just to mess with us.
That being said their bullpen, (and team in general) which has already been nuked, will be stretched thin Saturday. On the plus side, seems like a day JD and Mookie are pretty safe bets to pad their stats. On the downside we'll have to probably call up some AAA starter, I'd imagine.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 10, 2018 14:02:02 GMT -5
From 538 Sports The "TBD" matchup is 70/30, while Eovaldi/Bundy is 68/32... So am I to infer that, all things being equal, they favor Bundy over Eovaldi? It looks like the entire difference is that the Red Sox have a travel penalty and the Orioles do not. |
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 10, 2018 14:18:06 GMT -5
Mookie's cycle plus a walk yesterday bumped him up 0.5 fWAR to reach 7.5 total fWAR, tied for second in baseball with Jose Ramirez. Trout leads with 7.6 fWAR. Yet, Ramirez has played 113 games, Trout has played 109, and Mookie's right there having only played 96 games. He's way outpacing them on a WAR/per game basis; would love to see where he'd be had he not missed those couple weeks. In a (slightly) related matter, I've always thought OPS could be made more useful - as a simple measure of value - if the redundancy between slugging and on-base percentage could be resolved. I came up with something very simple that seems to do it. The problem is that singles are double counted - as an element of the on-base pct, and slugging as well. I don't think what I'll lay down got taken from somewhere else, but I'll admit it may have. I don't track all the offensive metrics and this could have surfaced somewhere else. It hasn't been normalized either so it needs that. Take slugging and divide it by the average to get bases per hit. Now that number is always greater than 1 since that's the minimum you'll get on a hit. So subtract 1 from that to find the extra-base value per hit (for a single that's 0 - no extra-base value). Add that to OBP and you get a new number, one that peels away the double-counted singles. The results are slightly different than OPS, more in-line with the extra-base value a hitter brings to the plate. It's a straightforward fix, one that reflects the value of extra bases when they're not swamped by duplicating single-base hits. The image I uploaded shows the OPS and OPSr (ranking) and what I'll call OBX and OBXr with the data taken from B-R and the new value and rank computed. The changes are slight but meaningful I think. Martinez, who hits the ball so hard, is ahead of Betts and both Bogaerts and Moreland jump ahead of Benintendi, which seems to make sense for the same reason. Anyway, I'll accept any and all critiques and suggestions. All of this was current before last night's game. It's easy enough to redo this, or you can try it yourself (click to enlarge): |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 10, 2018 15:05:07 GMT -5
Ohh boy. Wonder if this changes the percentages a bit on winning this game....
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 10, 2018 15:08:19 GMT -5
Today is also a Butler start behind the plate. I imagine Butler will start the Cuevas start too.
I knew Butler was going to start either tonight's or last night's game with one of the double header games.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 10, 2018 15:13:47 GMT -5
Ohh boy. Wonder if this changes the percentages a bit on winning this game.... This is the game we were up 5-0 too. So frustrating. Will remember that one if we lose and it ends up mattering. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 10, 2018 15:44:56 GMT -5
Mookie's cycle plus a walk yesterday bumped him up 0.5 fWAR to reach 7.5 total fWAR, tied for second in baseball with Jose Ramirez. Trout leads with 7.6 fWAR. Yet, Ramirez has played 113 games, Trout has played 109, and Mookie's right there having only played 96 games. He's way outpacing them on a WAR/per game basis; would love to see where he'd be had he not missed those couple weeks. And here's Mookie's window to win the MVP. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 10, 2018 15:57:09 GMT -5
Ohh boy. Wonder if this changes the percentages a bit on winning this game.... This is the game we were up 5-0 too. So frustrating. Will remember that one if we lose and it ends up mattering. Yeah even if it costs the Sox the number one seed, that still stings if they lose versus being up 5-0. |
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Post by manfred on Aug 10, 2018 16:06:10 GMT -5
Mookie's cycle plus a walk yesterday bumped him up 0.5 fWAR to reach 7.5 total fWAR, tied for second in baseball with Jose Ramirez. Trout leads with 7.6 fWAR. Yet, Ramirez has played 113 games, Trout has played 109, and Mookie's right there having only played 96 games. He's way outpacing them on a WAR/per game basis; would love to see where he'd be had he not missed those couple weeks. And here's Mookie's window to win the MVP. I wonder if JDM is the bigger threat. Seems reasonable the MVP would come from the best team... but is Martinez going to edge Betts or split ballots? |
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 10, 2018 17:16:58 GMT -5
The only downside for me - all Baltimore games are blacked out - so it will be time with Joe Castig and WEEI for me. Can't wait! Listening to Castig you may spill your beer a half dozen times a game. I love listening to him when I travel but he is so excitable that I think every 3rd flyball has a chance to go. |
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Post by incandenza on Aug 10, 2018 17:22:34 GMT -5
And here's Mookie's window to win the MVP. I wonder if JDM is the bigger threat. Seems reasonable the MVP would come from the best team... but is Martinez going to edge Betts or split ballots? I would doubt it. The new stats guys would look at the big gap in WAR and factor in Betts' defense and baserunning, and even the old farts would look at Betts' edge in AVG, SBs, and OPS, not to mention Betts' intangible star power. |
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