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2018 Red Sox postseason roster
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 20, 2018 21:57:51 GMT -5
We clinched - 9 games left to sort this out - my latest guess
Starter Locks - Sale, Porcello, Price (3) Pen Locks - Kimbrel, ERod (swing starter), Eovaldi (swing starter), Brasier, Wright (5) Remaining 3 (if 11 pitchers) or 4 (if 12) - Barnes (if he is healthy), Johnson, Workman. If Barnes can't go, Kelly if we go with 12.
Left off Kelly, Hembree, Poyner, Velazquez, Thornburg, Pomeranz, Cuevas, Scott
Offense Locks - Moreland, Kinsler, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Betts, Bradley, JDM, Devers, Holt, Pearce, Swihart, Leon, Nunez (13) - leaves 1 if we go with 11 pitchers, no additional if 12 pitchers. Remaining 1 - Vazquez.
Left off - Lin, Phillips, Travis
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Post by soxjim on Sept 21, 2018 1:00:49 GMT -5
Not the roster, but the rotation. First, Pete Abraham keeps listing the post-season rotation as Sale, Price, Porcello, Rodriguez. And I've seen some folks here echo that. Does anyone seriously think that 2018 Rick Porcello is a better pitcher than 2018 Eduardo Rodriguez? The numbers, with ranks among 150 starters in parentheses. (For most stats it's the 150 SP with 70+ IP as a starter. xWOBA rank is all 156 pitchers with 350 BFP, and bWAR/32 GS is 151 pitchers with 14 GS or more. The latter two rankings include other pitchers' relief work.) Stat E-Rod Porcello xwOBA .290 (29) .307 (64) xFIP- 89 (36) 91 (44) FIP- 83 (25) 97 (69) ERA- 80 (32) 97 (77) bWAR/32 4.4 (26) 2.8 (59) WPA/32 2.12 (35) 0.12 (92)
Keep in mind that if you rank 30th of 150 starters in MLB, you're an average #2. That's what E-Rod is, right now. Porcello has pitched like an average #3, but with bad clutch performance because he was left in to cough up at least one big lead. Having two aces, a #2, and a #3 (actually at least two, as Eovaldi's numbers are actually a bit better than Porcello's, a topic we'll revisit later) makes you a post-season beast. Now, there are two separate arguments that Price should start game 3 and E-Rod game 2. I think the first is about 90% compelling and the second is about 75%. Together, I think it's a no-brainer.
First, because of the wild-card game, our opponent's ace starts game 3, not game 1. They go 2, 3, 1, 4. For the Yankees, this means that Happ and Tanaka are pitching 1 and 3 (or vice versa, TBD) and Severino (or Sabathia, if he reverses his late-season collapse) is pitching 2.
(The A's rotation is completely up in the air as Anderson is just returning from an injury and was hit hard his first game back, Cahill is out and missing at least 1 more start, while Fiers is their #1 in bWAR and WPA and 4th in xwOBA and there's no knowing how good they think he actually is.)
The last thing you want to do is send Price out against Severino and win easily and then have E-Rod lose a squeaker in the Bidet to Tanaka or Happ. Our #1 is better than their #1, our #2 is better than their #2, and so on right down the line. You want to match them up that way, as much as possible. E-Rod over Severino is already a big advantage; starting Price instead yields diminishing returns. Whereas Price instead of E-Rod against Tanaka or Happ is a significant upgrade.
But there's a second reason. This is IP/GS, with Price for his 8 full starts since his turnaround and Sale pre-injury.
6.8 Price 6.4 Sale 5.9 Porcello 5.4 Rodriguez
There's an off day after game 2, so you can use the whole pen for it. Meanwhile, Price will save you the pen when he pitches. So why would you ever start Price in game 2, and then E-Rod in game 3, where he's more likely to make you use everyone of importance, when you'll want to have a quick hook in game 4? It makes much more sense to alternate the guys who save the pen with the guys who tax it.
Fortunately, both of these arguments call for the same rotation. No need to weigh advantages versus disadvantages.
Price pitches awful in Yankee stadium. That crummy rf porch kills him. Secondly, Price has been pitching like an Ace other than vs the Yanks in their stadium in his last 10 starts in between Yankee ballpark. Also, I think the best option for the team is to worry about our team, not the other team when it's our team with the best record. We should play to our strengths which is to throw our 2 Aces in games 1 and 2. I would lean toward Porcello game 3 and ERod game 4. That can all change. As you have cited a lot depends on who is hot. But ERod's last 4 games since he's come back he has 1 super start then one super dud then 1 great then 1 bad etc. What I like about him as a 4th starter, if I need him out of the bullpen in games 1-3 - I can use him and I think his stuff would play better from the pen than Porcello''s stuff. Further, I don't think the Sox should sacrifice an ACE like Price just to accommodate ERod in Boston. Anyways I may want to pitch Price in game 5 if necessary out of the bullpen. In that do-or-die game, I'd want the better pitcher. And I prefer Porcello's experience over Erod's non.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 21, 2018 2:45:00 GMT -5
Not the roster, but the rotation. First, Pete Abraham keeps listing the post-season rotation as Sale, Price, Porcello, Rodriguez. And I've seen some folks here echo that. Does anyone seriously think that 2018 Rick Porcello is a better pitcher than 2018 Eduardo Rodriguez? The numbers, with ranks among 150 starters in parentheses. (For most stats it's the 150 SP with 70+ IP as a starter. xWOBA rank is all 156 pitchers with 350 BFP, and bWAR/32 GS is 151 pitchers with 14 GS or more. The latter two rankings include other pitchers' relief work.) Stat E-Rod Porcello xwOBA .290 (29) .307 (64) xFIP- 89 (36) 91 (44) FIP- 83 (25) 97 (69) ERA- 80 (32) 97 (77) bWAR/32 4.4 (26) 2.8 (59) WPA/32 2.12 (35) 0.12 (92)
Keep in mind that if you rank 30th of 150 starters in MLB, you're an average #2. That's what E-Rod is, right now. Porcello has pitched like an average #3, but with bad clutch performance because he was left in to cough up at least one big lead. Having two aces, a #2, and a #3 (actually at least two, as Eovaldi's numbers are actually a bit better than Porcello's, a topic we'll revisit later) makes you a post-season beast. Now, there are two separate arguments that Price should start game 3 and E-Rod game 2. I think the first is about 90% compelling and the second is about 75%. Together, I think it's a no-brainer.
First, because of the wild-card game, our opponent's ace starts game 3, not game 1. They go 2, 3, 1, 4. For the Yankees, this means that Happ and Tanaka are pitching 1 and 3 (or vice versa, TBD) and Severino (or Sabathia, if he reverses his late-season collapse) is pitching 2.
(The A's rotation is completely up in the air as Anderson is just returning from an injury and was hit hard his first game back, Cahill is out and missing at least 1 more start, while Fiers is their #1 in bWAR and WPA and 4th in xwOBA and there's no knowing how good they think he actually is.)
The last thing you want to do is send Price out against Severino and win easily and then have E-Rod lose a squeaker in the Bidet to Tanaka or Happ. Our #1 is better than their #1, our #2 is better than their #2, and so on right down the line. You want to match them up that way, as much as possible. E-Rod over Severino is already a big advantage; starting Price instead yields diminishing returns. Whereas Price instead of E-Rod against Tanaka or Happ is a significant upgrade.
But there's a second reason. This is IP/GS, with Price for his 8 full starts since his turnaround and Sale pre-injury.
6.8 Price 6.4 Sale 5.9 Porcello 5.4 Rodriguez
There's an off day after game 2, so you can use the whole pen for it. Meanwhile, Price will save you the pen when he pitches. So why would you ever start Price in game 2, and then E-Rod in game 3, where he's more likely to make you use everyone of importance, when you'll want to have a quick hook in game 4? It makes much more sense to alternate the guys who save the pen with the guys who tax it.
Fortunately, both of these arguments call for the same rotation. No need to weigh advantages versus disadvantages.
Price pitches awful in Yankee stadium. That crummy rf porch kills him. Secondly, Price has been pitching like an Ace other than vs the Yanks in their stadium in his last 10 starts in between Yankee ballpark. Also, I think the best option for the team is to worry about our team, not the other team when it's our team with the best record. We should play to our strengths which is to throw our 2 Aces in games 1 and 2. I would lean toward Porcello game 3 and ERod game 4. That can all change. As you have cited a lot depends on who is hot. But ERod's last 4 games since he's come back he has 1 super start then one super dud then 1 great then 1 bad etc. What I like about him as a 4th starter, if I need him out of the bullpen in games 1-3 - I can use him and I think his stuff would play better from the pen than Porcello''s stuff. Further, I don't think the Sox should sacrifice an ACE like Price just to accommodate ERod in Boston. Anyways I may want to pitch Price in game 5 if necessary out of the bullpen. In that do-or-die game, I'd want the better pitcher. And I prefer Porcello's experience over Erod's non. When I made that argument I was making the reasonable assumption that Price's Yankee Stadium woes were a SSS semi-fluke, the "semi" being that he had those difficulties when he wasn't himself. You have to look into whether what happened Wednesday, with three homers going into the first two rows, is something that is likely to plague him based on his total pattern of balls in play. If it's a real ballpark split and a big one, then you have him avoid the stadium, of course.
Now, if we're playing the A's ...
I do agree that the three-way scramble for the last two spots is still up in the air. Porcello seems to me to be as unpredictable as E-Rod, with brilliant games and stinkers scattered seemingly at random among his typical outings. I think I'll check that objectively later.
Whoever starts game 3 has two days rest to pitch in relief in game 5. But you really don't want to use both your #1 and #2 starters in game 5 (both will be rested, on 5 and 4 days rest respectively), because you want one of them to start game 1 of the CS if you win. However, if you start Price in game 2, he's an option for game 5, saving Sale for game 1 of the CS on 7 days rest. That's probably the strongest counter-argument. Price then starts games 3 (and 7) on regular rest.
It's also true that with Wright and Eovaldi or Porcello in the pen, two short outings in a row will be much less of a problem than if you had all traditional relievers out there. It might mean staying away from Wright in games 2 and 3, though. I'm nkt sure how hard they want to work him.
Finally, Severino has now has had two normal-for-him outings in a row on 6 days rest, and they'll probably want to keep him on that schedule. In which case, the first three Yankee starters are all of roughly equal caliber and it's not potentially wasting your #2 in a matchup against him.
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Post by rjp313jr on Sept 21, 2018 7:36:15 GMT -5
Price’s issues in Yankee stadium are not small sample size noise; it’s between his ears. He has a mental block. Yes, those things are real. I know some of you don’t like talking about it because “it’s talk radio bs” or “these are professional athletes, they deal with pressure”. Don’t excuse those 3 home runs. He made pitches that begged for those right handed hitters to hit fly balls the other way. High outside fastballs. Where are they supposed to hit them? One was supposed to be inside and he completely missed his spot. I just hope this start doesn’t mess up his head for his other starts. He just needs to not sniff the mound in Yankee stadium during the playoffs.
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Post by rjp313jr on Sept 21, 2018 7:38:04 GMT -5
Left handed pitchers are at such a disadvantage in that stadium against that right handed lineup. The smart play against the Yankees is, Sale and Price at home then Porcello and Eovaldi in Yankee stadium. I want Erod starting versus anyone else, but I think Eovaldi in Yankee stadium because of the lineup makes sense.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Sept 21, 2018 7:57:17 GMT -5
Left handed pitchers are at such a disadvantage in that stadium against that right handed lineup. The smart play against the Yankees is, Sale and Price at home then Porcello and Eovaldi in Yankee stadium. I want Erod starting versus anyone else, but I think Eovaldi in Yankee stadium because of the lineup makes sense. Agree. My only question is whether the game 2 starter should be Price or Erod. Whichever one it isn't would still pitch during a series with the Yankees out of the bullpen - maybe every game - just to the Yankee left handed hitters - Walker, Gardner, their shortstop. And if you have one of Price or Erod to do that, maybe you take someone like Workman instead of Poyner. While Price has been the Red Sox best starter the last month or two with Sale out, the Yankees, especially at their park, are not a good matchup for him. Against Cleveland or Oakland, it might be a different story and you might very well want Price starting the second or maybe the first game (depending on Sale's availability).
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Post by soxjim on Sept 21, 2018 13:12:20 GMT -5
Price pitches awful in Yankee stadium. That crummy rf porch kills him. Secondly, Price has been pitching like an Ace other than vs the Yanks in their stadium in his last 10 starts in between Yankee ballpark. Also, I think the best option for the team is to worry about our team, not the other team when it's our team with the best record. We should play to our strengths which is to throw our 2 Aces in games 1 and 2. I would lean toward Porcello game 3 and ERod game 4. That can all change. As you have cited a lot depends on who is hot. But ERod's last 4 games since he's come back he has 1 super start then one super dud then 1 great then 1 bad etc. What I like about him as a 4th starter, if I need him out of the bullpen in games 1-3 - I can use him and I think his stuff would play better from the pen than Porcello''s stuff. Further, I don't think the Sox should sacrifice an ACE like Price just to accommodate ERod in Boston. Anyways I may want to pitch Price in game 5 if necessary out of the bullpen. In that do-or-die game, I'd want the better pitcher. And I prefer Porcello's experience over Erod's non. When I made that argument I was making the reasonable assumption that Price's Yankee Stadium woes were a SSS semi-fluke, the "semi" being that he had those difficulties when he wasn't himself. You have to look into whether what happened Wednesday, with three homers going into the first two rows, is something that is likely to plague him based on his total pattern of balls in play. If it's a real ballpark split and a big one, then you have him avoid the stadium, of course.
Now, if we're playing the A's ...
I do agree that the three-way scramble for the last two spots is still up in the air. Porcello seems to me to be as unpredictable as E-Rod, with brilliant games and stinkers scattered seemingly at random among his typical outings. I think I'll check that objectively later.
Whoever starts game 3 has two days rest to pitch in relief in game 5. But you really don't want to use both your #1 and #2 starters in game 5 (both will be rested, on 5 and 4 days rest respectively), because you want one of them to start game 1 of the CS if you win. However, if you start Price in game 2, he's an option for game 5, saving Sale for game 1 of the CS on 7 days rest. That's probably the strongest counter-argument. Price then starts games 3 (and 7) on regular rest.
It's also true that with Wright and Eovaldi or Porcello in the pen, two short outings in a row will be much less of a problem than if you had all traditional relievers out there. It might mean staying away from Wright in games 2 and 3, though. I'm nkt sure how hard they want to work him.
Finally, Severino has now has had two normal-for-him outings in a row on 6 days rest, and they'll probably want to keep him on that schedule. In which case, the first three Yankee starters are all of roughly equal caliber and it's not potentially wasting your #2 in a matchup against him.
I’m speaking strictly DS not ALCS. In the 1st 5 game series if it was the Yanks, as of this moment I would prefer Eovaldi in the pen. So I think we have 4 starters for a 5 game series with Sale as game 4 starter only if we’re down 2-1. But I see your point of a 3-way scramble for 2 spots. I suppose they all have merit. You and others have convinced me. I can understand any option of these 3 despite a personal preference. But as far as Price- I think he has to go Game 2 regardless who the Sox face. He was good at Fenway vs the Yanks on Aug 5th, so I think he should be the number 2 here. In addition, I think you do want to have the option of having your best starters available (Sale and Price) if it were to come down to a final game 5 with optimum rest if they can. Why not have them rested as best as possible rather than potentially take away even a slight-bit of their effectiveness? I’d want him rested as much as possible for that do-or-die-game 5 and also keep him away from YS. And if they play the A’s – I want to shut down their bats as best as possible thus I want our best. I think you go with best pitcher rather than matchup.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 21, 2018 18:10:56 GMT -5
Interesting note, Cora mentioned Eduardo Rodriguez, not Eovaldi as the guy who could piggy back Sale in his next start.
The Sox might like Eovaldi against the MFY's more than Eduardo.
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Post by mredsox89 on Sept 21, 2018 18:17:08 GMT -5
Interesting note, Cora mentioned Eduardo Rodriguez, not Eovaldi as the guy who could piggy back Sale in his next start. The Sox might like Eovaldi against the MFY's more than Eduardo. It certainly looks as though Eovaldi could very well start over Rodriguez in an ALDS matchup with the Ysnkees. That said, I think Eovaldi profiles as more of a help in the pen for the playoffs than Rodriguez, so it's not exactly the plan I'd personally go with
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Post by ryan24 on Sept 21, 2018 18:33:36 GMT -5
Not sure where this goes, I figured you guys would put it in the right place. Pedy has been out , all but 3 games, for the whole season. Does his salary count against the cap? You guys have not talked about the salary numbers lately. Just wondered where the sox are?
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Sept 22, 2018 2:38:41 GMT -5
Not sure where this goes, I figured you guys would put it in the right place. Pedy has been out , all but 3 games, for the whole season. Does his salary count against the cap? You guys have not talked about the salary numbers lately. Just wondered where the sox are? m Yes it counts. Thankfully, Pedey’s contract was designed to be fair to both parties, a win-win right to the end. His current situation is largely due to his all out efforts which win ballgames and championships, and inspires this young team to do the same. I hope some of these young team mates also become Boston lifers on win-win contracts.
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 22, 2018 7:06:27 GMT -5
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Sept 22, 2018 12:07:46 GMT -5
Interesting. He forgot Hanley’s 22M , so his rough count 196 base is actually closer to 174. Of the six players he states the Sox will need to re-sign or replace, I agree that Kinsler will get a full time contract somewhere, and he will be replaced by Pedey anyways. Most here will be fine if Kelly and Pom walk, or are re-signed on pillow deals. Eovaldi could replace Pom. One of Poyner, Maddox, Feltman, Lakins could replace Kelly. Were these moves part of DDo’s long term strategy? We still have Wright, Johnson and Velasquez for the Rotation/Pen. The only real question for the Pen is Kimbrel. What would it cost to keep this HOF closer in Boston? His other mention is Steve Pearce at age 38. What a terrific platoon with MM and backup DH. Would a reasonably priced 2019 bench of Pearce, Brockstar, Swihart, Lin be enough? The big question is, are we really over that $237M, and in 2019, given that we will sctually be starting out at around $150M, will we be over the $246M?
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Post by gerry on Sept 22, 2018 12:11:23 GMT -5
Sorry about the digression
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Post by ianrs on Sept 22, 2018 14:50:38 GMT -5
Ok, I've done a lot of thinking about this and gathering data and I think the postseason roster needs to look like the following...
Lineup versus RHP: RF Mookie Betts LF Andrew Benintendi DH J.D. Martinez SS Xander Bogaerts 1B Mitch Moreland 3B Rafael Devers 2B Brock Holt C Blake Swihart CF Jackie Bradley Jr.
Lineup versus LHP: RF Mookie Betts LF Andrew Benintendi DH J.D. Martinez SS Xander Bogaerts 1B Steve Pearce 3B Eduardo Nunez 2B Ian Kinsler C Sandy Leon/Christian Vasquez CF Jackie Bradley Jr.
Its possible you could leave Swihart and Holt on the bench to start games to give the most flexibility with matchups later in the game and not put all eggs in one basket facing a team's starter. But, I think these lineups give the team the best chance to win. Honestly, I'm very tempted to leave Nunez off in favor of Tzu-Wei lin, but I think because he is also a LHB like Holt & Devers, Nunez gets the slight edge. Swihart and Devers are much too talented to leave off the roster. I'm very tempted to leave Moreland off the roster all-together, platooning Swihart and Pearce at 1B, and adding Lin to the roster. I think Moreland is hurt and, as much as I like him, will not be good in the playoffs.
As far as SP, i think you have to play the matchups SP versus A's: LHP Chris Sale, LHP David Price, RHP Rick Porcello, LHP Eduardo Rodriguez SP versus Yankees/Indians/Astros: LHP Chris Sale, LHP David Price, RHP Rick Porcello, RHP Nathan Eovaldi (opener). You simply can't start three LHP against LHP mashing teams, especially when the gap is smaller between Eduardo and the others. Steven Wright remains in the bullpen as a savior.
Other BP: Kimbrel, Brasier, Workman, Barnes, Johnson
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 24, 2018 7:47:54 GMT -5
Ok, I've done a lot of thinking about this and gathering data and I think the postseason roster needs to look like the following... Lineup versus RHP: RF Mookie Betts LF Andrew Benintendi DH J.D. Martinez SS Xander Bogaerts 1B Mitch Moreland 3B Rafael Devers 2B Brock Holt C Blake Swihart CF Jackie Bradley Jr. Lineup versus LHP: RF Mookie Betts LF Andrew Benintendi DH J.D. Martinez SS Xander Bogaerts 1B Steve Pearce 3B Eduardo Nunez 2B Ian Kinsler C Sandy Leon/Christian Vasquez CF Jackie Bradley Jr. Its possible you could leave Swihart and Holt on the bench to start games to give the most flexibility with matchups later in the game and not put all eggs in one basket facing a team's starter. But, I think these lineups give the team the best chance to win. Honestly, I'm very tempted to leave Nunez off in favor of Tzu-Wei lin, but I think because he is also a LHB like Holt & Devers, Nunez gets the slight edge. Swihart and Devers are much too talented to leave off the roster. I'm very tempted to leave Moreland off the roster all-together, platooning Swihart and Pearce at 1B, and adding Lin to the roster. I think Moreland is hurt and, as much as I like him, will not be good in the playoffs. As far as SP, i think you have to play the matchups SP versus A's: LHP Chris Sale, LHP David Price, RHP Rick Porcello, LHP Eduardo Rodriguez SP versus Yankees/Indians/Astros: LHP Chris Sale, LHP David Price, RHP Rick Porcello, RHP Nathan Eovaldi (opener). You simply can't start three LHP against LHP mashing teams, especially when the gap is smaller between Eduardo and the others. Steven Wright remains in the bullpen as a savior. Other BP: Kimbrel, Brasier, Workman, Barnes, Johnson I doubt that Kelly gets left out.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 24, 2018 12:33:37 GMT -5
Looks like the roster is getting clearer. I see two question marks and that's it.
Is Eduardo Nunez healthy? If he is, does he start or platoon? Otherwise Brandon Phillips platoons with Raffy Devers.
Who grabs the last bullpen spot? Looks like Wright and Workman have solidified their holds so it leaves one last reliever.
I'm guessing we see:
SP: Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi RP: Kimbrel, Barnes, Brasier, Wright, Rodriguez, Workman, and I'm guessing Kelly (I'd prefer Poyner but expect Kelly. Looks like Hembree is completely out of gas).
Starting C: Leon Starting IF: Moreland, Kinsler, Bogaerts, Devers (seems like he's hitting well enough at this point?) Starting OF/DH: Benintendi, Bradley, Betts, Martinez
Bench: Vazquez, Swihart, Pearce, Holt, Nunez (otherwise Phillips)
Lineup against righties:
Betts Benintendi Martinez Bogaerts Moreland Kinsler Devers Leon Bradley
Lineup against lefties: Betts Benintendi Pearce Martinez Bogaerts Nunez (or Phillips) Kinsler Leon Bradley
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Post by carmenfanzone on Sept 24, 2018 15:19:34 GMT -5
Looks like the roster is getting clearer. I see two question marks and that's it. Is Eduardo Nunez healthy? If he is, does he start or platoon? Otherwise Brandon Phillips platoons with Raffy Devers. Who grabs the last bullpen spot? Looks like Wright and Workman have solidified their holds so it leaves one last reliever. I'm guessing we see: SP: Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi RP: Kimbrel, Barnes, Brasier, Wright, Rodriguez, Workman, and I'm guessing Kelly (I'd prefer Poyner but expect Kelly. Looks like Hembree is completely out of gas). Starting C: Leon Starting IF: Moreland, Kinsler, Bogaerts, Devers (seems like he's hitting well enough at this point?) Starting OF/DH: Benintendi, Bradley, Betts, Martinez Bench: Vazquez, Swihart, Pearce, Holt, Nunez (otherwise Phillips) Lineup against righties: Betts Benintendi Martinez Bogaerts Moreland Kinsler Devers Leon Bradley Lineup against lefties: Betts Benintendi Pearce Martinez Bogaerts Nunez (or Phillips) Kinsler Leon Bradley The way he is hitting right now, I am pretty sure you have to play Holt against right handed pitching. Maybe at 2nd or (given the way Moreland is hitting maybe at first). Not sure when you would use Kelly given that you also have Barnes and Braiser and Workman and a bunch of days off during the series which will let you use those 3 in practically every game. Could see using Poyner as the 2nd lefty who comes in to pitch to one or two left handed batters during the middle innings.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 24, 2018 15:32:12 GMT -5
Looks like the roster is getting clearer. I see two question marks and that's it. Is Eduardo Nunez healthy? If he is, does he start or platoon? Otherwise Brandon Phillips platoons with Raffy Devers. Who grabs the last bullpen spot? Looks like Wright and Workman have solidified their holds so it leaves one last reliever. I'm guessing we see: SP: Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi RP: Kimbrel, Barnes, Brasier, Wright, Rodriguez, Workman, and I'm guessing Kelly (I'd prefer Poyner but expect Kelly. Looks like Hembree is completely out of gas). Starting C: Leon Starting IF: Moreland, Kinsler, Bogaerts, Devers (seems like he's hitting well enough at this point?) Starting OF/DH: Benintendi, Bradley, Betts, Martinez Bench: Vazquez, Swihart, Pearce, Holt, Nunez (otherwise Phillips) Lineup against righties: Betts Benintendi Martinez Bogaerts Moreland Kinsler Devers Leon Bradley Lineup against lefties: Betts Benintendi Pearce Martinez Bogaerts Nunez (or Phillips) Kinsler Leon Bradley The way he is hitting right now, I am pretty sure you have to play Holt against right handed pitching. Maybe at 2nd or (given the way Moreland is hitting maybe at first). Not sure when you would use Kelly given that you also have Barnes and Braiser and Workman and a bunch of days off during the series which will let you use those 3 in practically every game. Could see using Poyner as the 2nd lefty who comes in to pitch to one or two left handed batters during the middle innings. I do think Cora will go with Moreland at 1b and Kinsler at 2b based on their track records, but I agree - Holt is swinging a hot bat right now and Kinsler is slumping and Moreland is useless. And they'd probably use Kelly in situations where the game is out of hand. Otherwise you'd see Poyner. I'd prefer Poyner. Can't stand watching Kelly self destruct like he does, but I think his strong outing the other night in Cleveland will get him onto the roster.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 24, 2018 21:28:48 GMT -5
5 games remain and more got sorted tonight, I think.
Starter Locks - Sale (L), Porcello (R), Price (L), ERod (L) or Eovaldi (R) (one in pen, on starts depending on match ups) (5) Pen Locks - Kimbrel (R), Brasier (R), Wright (R), Barnes (R), Workman (R), Poyner (L) (6) -( if Cora wanted another L in the pen, sub Johnson for Workman, perhaps)
Left off Kelly (R), Hembree (R), Johnson (L), Velazquez (R), Thornburg (R), Pomeranz (L), Cuevas (R), Scott (L)
Offense Locks - Moreland, Kinsler, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Betts, Bradley, JDM, Devers, Holt, Pearce, Swihart, Leon, Nunez, Vazquez (14)
Left off - Lin, Phillips, Travis
I really think there is little wiggle room left - Kelly vs Poyner, or the L/R choices I mention above, perhaps
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 25, 2018 16:58:23 GMT -5
5 games remain and more got sorted tonight, I think. Starter Locks - Sale (L), Porcello (R), Price (L), ERod (L) or Eovaldi (R) (one in pen, on starts depending on match ups) (5) Pen Locks - Kimbrel (R), Brasier (R), Wright (R), Barnes (R), Workman (R), Poyner (L) (6) -( if Cora wanted another L in the pen, sub Johnson for Workman, perhaps) Left off Kelly (R), Hembree (R), Johnson (L), Velazquez (R), Thornburg (R), Pomeranz (L), Cuevas (R), Scott (L) Offense Locks - Moreland, Kinsler, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Betts, Bradley, JDM, Devers, Holt, Pearce, Swihart, Leon, Nunez, Vazquez (14) Left off - Lin, Phillips, Travis I really think there is little wiggle room left - Kelly vs Poyner, or the L/R choices I mention above, perhaps Bobby Poyner has a reverse split, which give him one role above all others: to turn switch-hitters who hit better lefty to their weak right size, and to pitch to the very rare RHB with reverse splits.
Bobby Poyner was warmed up when Neil Walker came up in Yankee Stadium, and Walker fits that description perfectly. They were trying to clinch the pennant. Cora brought in Ryan Brasier instead.
I've been arguing that Poyner was never a serious candidate. I'm not sure if I was correct, and I'm still not sure, but if he is, not bringing him in then is beyond weird. You were going to clinch eventually, and here was a chance to use him exactly as he would be used in the post-season.
Meanwhile, they passed over the opportunity to use Johnson instead of Velazquez as their extra starter, continuing to use him instead in long relief. After his last start onnthe 2nd they had tried him as a LOOGY on 6 days rest and he allowed a BB and a game-tying 2B to Reddick. He's had 4 and 7 days rest as a long man (and is working on 2 tonight) with very good results, wild but really tough to hit (7.2 2 1 1 5 5, .082 / .241 / .208).
I think that Johnson is objectively the best pitcher of the candidates for the 11th guy, and there's an argument that if you need to go to 11, you need a long man anyway. With Wright's ability to give you 2 innings a game, you have him, Brasier, and Barnes as setup, plus the skipped-over starter (and I still think Porcello is on that list). So #10 guy Workman is already a guy who seems unlikely to be used in high leverage. Johnson could win you a long extra-inning game. But if they're playing the Yankess, maybe you want a righty. It wiouldn't shock me if Velazquez makes the roster, the idea being that the 11th guy is 100% a long man who will never pitch in high leverage, and is there for a) when you've used everyone else in extra innings and b) if you yank the starter early for the second day in a row.
Heath Hembree OPS allowed:
.631 to July 31 1.032 Aug-Sep
The latter breaks down to:
.934 August to September 4 1.417 last 5 outings
Joe Kelly has him beat by a mile, only allowing 1.150 in his last 5 outings.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 26, 2018 11:05:44 GMT -5
If we are picking between two pitchers that have an OPS allowed of 1.417 and 1.150 in the last 5 games we are in trouble. The choice is neither one frankly, keep an extra bat. Poyner though has allowed .580 OPS over his last 8 games, so he has a chance.
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Post by jmei on Sept 26, 2018 11:35:30 GMT -5
Evaluating relievers primarily based off of their OPS-against in their last five appearances is a bad idea.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 27, 2018 0:11:07 GMT -5
Evaluating relievers primarily based off of their OPS-against in their last five appearances is a bad idea. Unless there's a physical reason. Hembree seems to be gassed. Kelly is just a crapshoot.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 27, 2018 9:51:40 GMT -5
5 games remain and more got sorted tonight, I think. Starter Locks - Sale (L), Porcello (R), Price (L), ERod (L) or Eovaldi (R) (one in pen, on starts depending on match ups) (5) Pen Locks - Kimbrel (R), Brasier (R), Wright (R), Barnes (R), Workman (R), Poyner (L) (6) -( if Cora wanted another L in the pen, sub Johnson for Workman, perhaps) Left off Kelly (R), Hembree (R), Johnson (L), Velazquez (R), Thornburg (R), Pomeranz (L), Cuevas (R), Scott (L) Offense Locks - Moreland, Kinsler, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Betts, Bradley, JDM, Devers, Holt, Pearce, Swihart, Leon, Nunez, Vazquez (14) Left off - Lin, Phillips, Travis I really think there is little wiggle room left - Kelly vs Poyner, or the L/R choices I mention above, perhapsNo, I think you've nailed it. No way you can put Kelly on there with as bad as he has been.
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