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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 14, 2019 22:36:16 GMT -5
I think I'd feel better if the Sox had more (any) guys that could project to be more of a #2/#3 type starter than backend starter/reliever. It does seem peculiar that we have scored big on several position prospects, both through draft and Int, but not with pitching. Normally, a clear cut #2 pitcher does last past the top 10 or so in the draft, and we missed in our few chances when drafting high. Even so, with a $200M roster, we can have 5-6 free agents in the 20-30M range, which is sufficient to cover the 1-3 starters + 2 premium position players. The Red Sox actually did draft a high ceiling potential #2/#3 type of starter when they drafted Jay Groome. It's been terrible luck that he's been injured a huge chunk of his professional ceiling. Before that Anderson Espinoza looked like a potential top notch starter and with him was Michael Kopech who looked like he could be a top of the rotation type starter, but they were both dealt away and subsequently injured. Now both of them come attached with big question marks now that they're both in different phases of their recovery from TJ surgery.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 15, 2019 0:32:01 GMT -5
You didn't mention Logan Allen. He just may end up being the best of all of them.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 15, 2019 7:46:28 GMT -5
The 2018 draft (and 2017 IFA class) looks like it could be very good, but I agree that some brake-pumping is warranted. All the first two sentences say for me is that the Red Sox drafted and signed three high school guys who play the same position. They're certainly doing a very good job rebuilding, but that's going to take a while and must include player development work to match the amateur scouting work. Remember, part of the reason that 9 of the top 20 on the site are from the 2018 draft and 2017 IFA class is that they're potentially very good... and part of it is that there wasn't much there to keep that from happening. To end with something positive though, when we were recording the last podcast, Ian and I agreed that it's hard to say that the 2018 draft isn't poised to easily be the best Red Sox draft since the 2011 masterpiece. I agree that 2018 was the best draft in years, but I would also like to add that a lot of these guys have a lot more risk attached because they went for a lot of power at the expense of possible hit tool upside, which was a change in their philosophy. It seems to me that the safest position player prospects have the hit tool as their #1 tool. We all knew that Mookie, Benintendi and Devers were practically sure things, while we also knew that Moncada was not. Casas, Decker, Cottam, Northcut and Howlett all seem to have plus or better raw power and questionable to average at best hit tools. They're going to have to adjust and overcome that possible limitation and that's a tough one to overcome if the scouting reports are 100% accurate (which they rarely are). I am super excited about Duran though and think it's relatively safe to call him a future major league player. Another good season from him and let the Ellsbury comps begin. I see either Duran or Gilberto Jimenez as the Red Sox future CF, and I love prospects like them. Plus hit tool and plus plus speed which usually leads to plus defense eventually. They seem like similar type of players. I'm also super excited about Feltman and think he'll be pitching important innings for the Sox this season. He's probably the least risky pick, other than the fact that he's a pitcher and TINSTAAPP. If Duran had a plus hit tool he'd be a top five prospect in the system, if not number one. He's got an average hit tool at best. In his profile here, we say potential above-average hit tool. Fangraphs has him as a present 35/future 50. Right now, it's one tool and hope the rest develops. Yes, he's probably a major leaguer because at worst maybe he's Quintin Berry or something because it's true 70 speed. As for Jimenez he's even more raw. He hasn't even played in the U.S. yet. Again, no chance he's a plus hitter now and it's tough to put more than a future 50 or 55 on him given he started hitting from the left side of the plate just this past year (20/55 at FG, which I think about covers it). We have him at 70 speed and FG reports some scouts have apparently seen 80 speed from him, so there is that, but again, let's not get ahead of ourselves with a plus hit tool.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 15, 2019 9:37:43 GMT -5
You didn't mention Logan Allen. He just may end up being the best of all of them. I'm trying to forget. lol Yeah, oversight. At least they got value for him. Ultimately I do think it will be known as the Kimbrel/Allen deal. I think Margot will wind up being kind of fungible - an ok player but not a must have and the other two haven't really amounted to much, so it will be the Kimbrel/Allen deal and Allen will be a good starter. Just hope he isn't as good as the scout's comparable - Jon Lester.
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Post by telson13 on Jan 15, 2019 23:50:13 GMT -5
I will say it. Those first few sentences from BA re: Casas and Howlett confirm to me that the Sox Farm has indeed made the turn from freefall to resurrection. 2019 will be an exciting year.for the progress of a dozen solid prospects like these from Chavis to Flores to hopefully more smart signings. From the draft/IFA class the past two years, there are a bunch of guys to get excited about. I’d probably rank them (in terms of how curious I am to see what they do): 1) Duran, who obviously isn’t the best prospect but might be the biggest steal, if it weren’t for 2) Howlett, who looks to be a HUGE steal and seems to have an outside but legitimate shot at being a first-division regular if his offensive performance holds up and his defense improves 3) Antoni Flores, who I think has arguably the most upside other than Casas, and in a vacuum is the most exciting prospect in the system imo 4) Durbin Feltman, who feels SO close 5) Casas, who has legit middle-order bat upside and it would be a glorious coup if he could stick at 3b, as unlikely as it seems right now 6) Tanner Houck, who’s easy to forget about but had a dominant stretch in Salem last year, and who clearly can be outstanding when on and using his sinker. I’m fascinated by the possibility of him broadening his pitch mix by learning to locate the 4-seam, and developing the CH. I’d put him much higher in most instances, but I’m just so excited about this past year’s draft 7) Decker, who has the feel of being an average offensive corner OF with maybe a smidge of added value from a good arm and the chance to show some legit power 8) Cole Kottam, who has alternately been looked at as having offensive and defensive upside, and really just needs to put it together. 9) Cole Brannen, who’s struggled mightily but I think still has the chance to put it together. I’m **really** hoping something clicks, he gains some strength, and puts those wheels to use 10) Tanner Nishioka, my darkhorse DIII binky who was terrific in Greenville this year. Beyond them, there are also Danny Diaz (let’s see him stateside!), Alex Scherff, Nick Northcutt, Thompson, Ward, and the live but often broken arm of Schellinger. I really believe at least one or two of those guys will take a big step forward, and my hope is that they finish the year with a couple or even a few 50+ FV guys...enough to get back to respectability on top-100 lists. There’s enough in the system that dreaming on having a bigtime prospect or two (top-25) within 2 years doesn’t seem entirely silly. And certainly lots of chances to churn out average to solid MLB players, which itself carries a lot of value in cost savings.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jan 16, 2019 2:13:56 GMT -5
Not giving up on the 2017 draft either myself yet either. we have yet to see Aaron Perry pitch period and still waiting to see Schellenger pitch with close to his normal velocity. Also would like to see Boston go ahead and move Thompson to relief right now and get him ready quickly and allow Houck only 1 more year as a SP prospect before running him out there as a starter.
The draft, to me looked tops then with all the arms and still does. fallback relievers if nothing else. Same with Scherff.
See those same types in the 2018 draft in Shugart, Machamer and Thad Ward. Drafting a few power arms with at least 1 working secondary over classic junk mixes allows them the luxury of developing future MLB relievers rather than people that flounder in the minors for a few years and nothing else that we have seen over the last 20y.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jan 17, 2019 17:24:24 GMT -5
That's why I laugh at the publications that the Sox system is D.O.A. lol. I expect a huge jump this season with a few standouts. I can't wait to see the minors get started. The Sox had a ton of back luck this season.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 23, 2019 16:06:27 GMT -5
I really love Howlett's swing. It generates easy power and it's really quick. He probably won't have many holes in it because of how quick it is.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 23, 2019 16:24:49 GMT -5
Absolutely. He gets around in a flash.
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Post by GyIantosca on Mar 2, 2019 7:01:30 GMT -5
This kid is one of the many reasons why I know our system is going to shoot up fast. I read Bleacher report and they like to rate things. So he next rating is each team prospect heating up in spring training. So they start with the Red Sox best team who won the title sitting on the worst system . Chavis is heating up with three homers etc, etc. it just bugs me worst system. Like five of our best were hurt. Whatever. I just know ,bounce back time. Until the kids graduate and progress in the majors there assets on a list.
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Post by ramireja on May 10, 2019 13:20:51 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Jul 19, 2019 13:03:47 GMT -5
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Post by larrycook on Jul 21, 2019 13:17:51 GMT -5
Howlett’s swing is direct to the ball. I think he has 15-20 home run power. Interesting that when Greenville gets shut out, he usually has 1 of the hits,
He seems to be able to identify a fastball early and he can usually line them up. It should be interesting to see how he does against sliders.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 22, 2019 10:27:34 GMT -5
The Drive have been shut out 8 times this year. Howlett has hits in 3 of 7 games in which he played (he sat for one). And I'm not even sure what the relevance would be anyway.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 15, 2021 10:10:36 GMT -5
Howlett was a big riser last month, went from the low 30s to the high 20s. He's always been young for his level and his 2019 was tough to gauge - he was terrible in the second half, but it was also his first full season and he was playing ahead of the rest of the HS guys in his class. Would've totally made sense if fatigue was a factor and there were adjustments to be made.
I've been comparatively high on him and his overall numbers are good this year, but the strikeouts are really becoming a significant problem. He K'd four times last night and now has 41 in 93 plate appearances over 21 games. Way too many.
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Post by jbuttah on Jul 15, 2021 11:59:18 GMT -5
Anybody else think his swing looks very similar to Henry Davis.
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Post by jaffinator on Jul 15, 2021 12:35:53 GMT -5
Anybody else think his swing looks very similar to Henry Davis. I wouldn't say too too similar overall - from what I've seen of Davis in similar video Davis has a touch more of a crouch and stride - but there's a similar use of leverage and strength which is nice for power.
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Post by rockymtnsox on Jul 15, 2021 15:30:13 GMT -5
Anybody else think his swing looks very similar to Henry Davis. I wouldn't say too too similar overall - from what I've seen of Davis in similar video Davis has a touch more of a crouch and stride - but there's a similar use of leverage and strength which is nice for power. Given the comparison, on which I have no opinion, I wonder where an alternate universe Brandon Howlett that went to Florida State ends up in this years draft.
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