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Could Eovaldi be Kimbrel's replacement?
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Post by rivenp on Oct 11, 2018 3:23:05 GMT -5
I think based off of recent history, Eovaldi gets a 4 year contract between 54-70 million dollars. I'd give that to him too. He's tough against the Yankees, and the Sox need that. The Sox will learn a lot more whether they have extra money added to their payroll a week after the world series too. The Price of out expires soon thereafter. Idk if I’d go quite that high, but I do agree that his truly outstanding work against NY makes him especially attractive to the Sox. I do think his cutter might help him miss a few more bats, and I think there’s sequencing/approach options that may make him even better. He’s got very good control, and his performance with the Sox is very encouraging. I think 4/50-4/55 is about where I’d draw a line, simply in that I think he’s a possible 2, likely 3, potential 4, with serious injury risk. His stuff is well-matched to NY’s weaknesses, so even as a 4 he’d have value. And at $12.5 M a year he’d be tradable or convertible to relief if they had to swallow the deal. He’s young enough that there’s still some development upside. But I’d be real nervous about edging into $14-15M AAV. They need bargains given the upcoming salary crunch. I know it seems like needless penny-pinching, but I really believe the Sox need to do that on riskier deals and/or fliers like Nunez, because those millions/years add up. I’d actually be inclined to try for a lower AAV/longer deal, which might seem counter-intuitive, but for a guy his age, i think those are important dollars. He’d be more likely to provide excess value in any given year. They’re also in a position where they don’t “need” him...I think if you’re gonna spend on luxury, be careful with your budget.
if you view him as a "likely" 3...then you're not getting him for anywhere near your suggested price point. rich hill got $16m per for his age 37-39 years with similar injury history. if he makes a few more quality starts this postseason (fingers crossed) i wouldn't be shocked if he gets closer to porcello money ($20m) considering he's entering his age 29 season, though probably hill money with an extra year.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 11, 2018 6:20:56 GMT -5
The other problem is the Yankees could covet Eovaldi yet again this offseason. They traded for him obviously in the past and like him as much as the Sox probably do. The Yankees could buy 3 starting pitchers this offseason. They have money to blow, and they will spend this offseason after losing to the Red Sox at home in the playoffs.
One of Cashman's biggest errors this season was letting Eovaldi get to the Red Sox. The difference between Happ and Eovaldi at the deadline was HUGE in determining how the Sox won against the Yankees in the playoffs.
The Yankees spent over 600 million in guaranteed dollars 10 years ago in the offseasons of 2007 and 2008 between Arod, CC, Texeira, Igawa, and Burnett. That's when Hal and Hank took over for George. I expect them to blow doors and spend like drunken sailors at a bar this offseason like they did 10 years ago.
The Yankees will overpay for anyone they truly covet this offseason. I don't know who these players are yet. Whether it's Harper, Machado, Corbin, Kershaw, Eovaldi, Kimbrel (yes I can see them playing for Kimbrel and adding him with Chapman in the bullpen). Who the heck knows?
They have over 30 million in AAV coming off the books in Sabathia, Robertson, and Gardner possibly. They are going way over the CBT on top of that I'm sure. They need to resign Aaron Hicks because he's a free agent, but they'll be able to do that easily.
I hate it when the Yankees have financial flexibility.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 11, 2018 8:58:55 GMT -5
One of Cashman's biggest errors this season was letting Eovaldi get to the Red Sox. The difference between Happ and Eovaldi at the deadline was HUGE in determining how the Sox won against the Yankees in the playoffs. Happ went 7-0 with a 2.69 ERA after the trade. Eovaldi having one game better than Happ is a thing that will happen sometimes because a decent pitcher will often outpitch a slightly better pitcher, especially when facing a worse lineup. But no GM would've picked Eovaldi over Happ. And basing the result off of one start isn't an argument for Eovaldi, it's an argument against rentals. |
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 11, 2018 11:43:43 GMT -5
One of Cashman's biggest errors this season was letting Eovaldi get to the Red Sox. The difference between Happ and Eovaldi at the deadline was HUGE in determining how the Sox won against the Yankees in the playoffs. Happ went 7-0 with a 2.69 ERA after the trade. Eovaldi having one game better than Happ is a thing that will happen sometimes because a decent pitcher will often outpitch a slightly better pitcher, especially when facing a worse lineup. But no GM would've picked Eovaldi over Happ. And basing the result off of one start isn't an argument for Eovaldi, it's an argument against rentals. I suspect both Happ and Eovaldi have already found homes and a really good wage for the coming years. The agents for both have probably already had “what if” discussions with their respective teams. The happy dilemma of both the 100+W Sox and nyfy is that they are already very strong at virtually every position, and have a bunch of money coming off the books to get even stronger. But I seriously doubt the equally rich and successful Dodgers, (who are just 4 wins away from the WS) will let fan favorites Machado or even a diminished Kershaw, or anyone else walk to New York. Continued Dodger success is not good for the Jankees, which is good for the Sox. |
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Post by telson13 on Oct 14, 2018 20:58:35 GMT -5
Idk if I’d go quite that high, but I do agree that his truly outstanding work against NY makes him especially attractive to the Sox. I do think his cutter might help him miss a few more bats, and I think there’s sequencing/approach options that may make him even better. He’s got very good control, and his performance with the Sox is very encouraging. I think 4/50-4/55 is about where I’d draw a line, simply in that I think he’s a possible 2, likely 3, potential 4, with serious injury risk. His stuff is well-matched to NY’s weaknesses, so even as a 4 he’d have value. And at $12.5 M a year he’d be tradable or convertible to relief if they had to swallow the deal. He’s young enough that there’s still some development upside. But I’d be real nervous about edging into $14-15M AAV. They need bargains given the upcoming salary crunch. I know it seems like needless penny-pinching, but I really believe the Sox need to do that on riskier deals and/or fliers like Nunez, because those millions/years add up. I’d actually be inclined to try for a lower AAV/longer deal, which might seem counter-intuitive, but for a guy his age, i think those are important dollars. He’d be more likely to provide excess value in any given year. They’re also in a position where they don’t “need” him...I think if you’re gonna spend on luxury, be careful with your budget.
if you view him as a "likely" 3...then you're not getting him for anywhere near your suggested price point. rich hill got $16m per for his age 37-39 years with similar injury history. if he makes a few more quality starts this postseason (fingers crossed) i wouldn't be shocked if he gets closer to porcello money ($20m) considering he's entering his age 29 season, though probably hill money with an extra year.
I fully agree...that’s why I’m not gung-ho about signing him. I’d be excited for him on a relative bargain deal (4/50-4/56 or so), but once you get past $13M AAV, and certainly $14-15M AAV, there are some issues imo. I think the Sox really need to look at saving some $ in their rotation, because Sale (if they want to extend him) is going to cost $30-35 AAV, and Price is already getting $31M. Rodriguez’s salaries are going to escalate. The end of Porcello’s $20M means they’ll save a little, but they’ll need a 5 (Wright? A younger unproven/buy low guy via trade?) and they’ll need to replace Porcello. With Sale due essentially a $20M raise, there’s Porcello’s salary. I think they need to get a little lucky for Eovaldi to make sense. Not necessarily in 2019, but beyond. |
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 15, 2018 11:40:37 GMT -5
Idk if I’d go quite that high, but I do agree that his truly outstanding work against NY makes him especially attractive to the Sox. I do think his cutter might help him miss a few more bats, and I think there’s sequencing/approach options that may make him even better. He’s got very good control, and his performance with the Sox is very encouraging. I think 4/50-4/55 is about where I’d draw a line, simply in that I think he’s a possible 2, likely 3, potential 4, with serious injury risk. His stuff is well-matched to NY’s weaknesses, so even as a 4 he’d have value. And at $12.5 M a year he’d be tradable or convertible to relief if they had to swallow the deal. He’s young enough that there’s still some development upside. But I’d be real nervous about edging into $14-15M AAV. They need bargains given the upcoming salary crunch. I know it seems like needless penny-pinching, but I really believe the Sox need to do that on riskier deals and/or fliers like Nunez, because those millions/years add up. I’d actually be inclined to try for a lower AAV/longer deal, which might seem counter-intuitive, but for a guy his age, i think those are important dollars. He’d be more likely to provide excess value in any given year. They’re also in a position where they don’t “need” him...I think if you’re gonna spend on luxury, be careful with your budget. if you view him as a "likely" 3...then you're not getting him for anywhere near your suggested price point. rich hill got $16m per for his age 37-39 years with similar injury history. if he makes a few more quality starts this postseason (fingers crossed) i wouldn't be shocked if he gets closer to porcello money ($20m) considering he's entering his age 29 season, though probably hill money with an extra year.
Rich Hill was also pitching at a true ace level for (parts of) two seasons before he signed that deal. Eovaldi has barely ever pitched at even an above average level in his career. Is Eovaldi worth more than Alex Cobb, who got like $60m? Or Lance Lynn, who got $12m? By the way, it wasn't really clear that Cobb was the better pitcher going into 2018, and he certainly didn't prove to be. So to answer the question, I have no idea what pitchers are even going to be good next year, and also no idea what MLB teams will pay for any of them. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ |
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 15, 2018 12:41:10 GMT -5
Overspending for relief pitching seems to be all the rage. Yet there are guys like Brasier who emerge from the fog of what, for him, appeared to be a lost career to dominate with a 97+ mph fastball and a hard slider both of which he seems to have decent command of. Chucking 10% of your salary budget out the window for a player who might bring maybe 2+ wins is beyond foolish. Do that often enough and your team will disappear into that very same fog.
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