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Post by larrycook on Feb 9, 2013 9:32:14 GMT -5
Just curious what kind of year we think he is going to have.
I know he is not the big armed power SP type, but he has steadily risen through the minors and reached Pawtucket last year.
Is he in the Pawtucket rotation or bullpen this year? If he is in the rotation, what kind of year will he have based on his stuff?
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Post by mredsox89 on Feb 9, 2013 11:43:11 GMT -5
I think he ends up in the rotation this year and gets a chance at starting in the bigs if someone goes down. His upside isn't huge but his floor is also much higher than most starters in the system imo. Also can't imagine them caring much about his arbitration clock as opposed to maybe Webster
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Post by jmei on Feb 9, 2013 12:30:21 GMT -5
I think he'll probably start in the rotation to serve as early-season emergency starting pitching depth, but that he'll shift into the bullpen by mid-season as that's where he's most competitive for a permanent MLB roster spot. The system does not have a lot of left-handed reliever depth, as Hernandez and Britton are the only lefty relievers at AA or higher. One problem is that all three of the MLB guys (Morales/Miller/Breslow) are under team control through 2014, which means there might not be an immediate opening for a LOOGY-type, but injuries/trades/poor performance will inevitably thin out that group.
I think he'll have a much tougher time competing for MLB playing time at starting pitcher, even just as emergency depth. Webster and De La Rosa should presumably be ready for spot-start duty by midseason, Wright is of a wild card, and Hernandez will have to compete with Doyle and Godfrey (both of whom also have options left) as the next in line.
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Post by mainesox on Feb 9, 2013 13:05:32 GMT -5
his floor is also much higher than most starters in the system imo. His floor is probably as a AAAA situational lefty; I'm not sure how much lower your floor can be, short of never making it to the majors.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Feb 9, 2013 13:08:23 GMT -5
The issue is his ceiling isn't much higher than his floor.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 9, 2013 13:27:14 GMT -5
his floor is also much higher than most starters in the system imo. His floor is probably as a AAAA situational lefty; I'm not sure how much lower your floor can be, short of never making it to the majors. I don't think your comment contradicts his in any way.
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Post by dcb26 on Feb 9, 2013 13:27:49 GMT -5
Honest question, does the organization have anything to gain by not giving him every chance to fail/succeed as a starter?
Maybe a bad start or two for the Sox, and pushing back the timetable for his permanent role, but if that's only a situational lefty/middle-relief guy, then isn't that a small price to pay compared to the chance he has some success as a starter?
This isn't really specific to Hernandez so much as a general thought on these types of situations.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 9, 2013 13:36:46 GMT -5
This is probably as good a year as any to give Hernandez a shot, should the need arise. I don't think most fans are expecting as much as they have in the past. If he were to prove unsuitable as a starter, it wouldn't be earth-shattering in the context of the last two seasons. Any success would be comparable to finding a (small) gold nugget in your cereal box.
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Post by jmei on Feb 9, 2013 14:31:56 GMT -5
Here's the thing: what would a couple MLB starts really tell you about Hernandez? You're not really going to get useful info with a sample size that small. "Giving him a shot" basically requires giving a guy a dozen or more starts so you have enough tape and data to properly evaluate him against major league hitters. Yeah, if the Red Sox are out of it by July and there's a rotation spot open, I'd be OK giving Hernandez a regular rotation spot down the stretch (although I'd still rather Webster or De La Rosa or Wright get those starts), but one or two spot starts in May really shouldn't tell you anything you don't already know.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Feb 9, 2013 14:35:14 GMT -5
This year's camp is big for where the FO sees his future. Chris is one guy I was glad to be invited to spring training. Personally, the depth for the big league club is so much better than last year. Cherington has many more options, not only in pen, but in the rotation also than last year.
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Post by dcb26 on Feb 9, 2013 15:35:22 GMT -5
one or two spot starts in May really shouldn't tell you anything you don't already know. Completely agree, but I don't think that's a reason to never give him a shot either. If they feel like he could really help them sooner doing something other than starting, than that's one thing, but I don't understand making him something other than a starter until he's had a chance to prove he's not cut out for it. I guess my point is I'd much rather have him in the Pawtucket rotation than the Pawtucket bullpen. If people are assuming he ends up in the Pawtucket bullpen this season after having proven he will not be an effective starter then sure, I have no problem with that.
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Post by bluechip on Feb 9, 2013 16:54:09 GMT -5
I have always had a softspot in my heart for the crafty-lefty starter. I mean, yeah, Webster and De La Rosa have much higher upside, but if someone get hurt in April, I think Hernandez should be first in line for that spot.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2013 22:58:47 GMT -5
Even though many project Hernandez as a LH reliever, I dont see that happening. If he is to be a player in the big leagues, he will have to be a starter. Here is why:
1. The Sox are loaded at LH relief with Breslow, Morales, and Miller. Unless there is an injury, the Sox are all set there
2. LH specialists are usually power pitchers that can put away a big LH hitter such as Prince Fielder in a big situation. Hernandez in not a power pitcher in any way. He would make a terrible LH specialist.
3. In the case of a long LH reliever, he is being blocked by Aceves and Mortensen, so that is unlikely. Also, LH pitchers are rarely long-relievers.
4. Hernandez is a lack great stuff/good control and composure type of pitcher, which is more of 4/5 starter type. He has very good mound presence and knowledge of how to pitch. To me, that fits more as a back of the rotation starter than a situational reliever.
5. Because he doesn't throw very hard, we will likely be able to work deep into ballgames and give the bullpen off on some nights. That is just the kind of pitcher that the Red Sox need, a reliable starter that can keep his team in any ballgame.
In case of an injury or non-effectiveness, it would never hurt to give Hernandez a shot. Maybe somehow he can duplicate his numbers at the MLB level from the minors with good composure and command and without great stuff. The only problem is he is blocked by RDLR and Webster. So the only chance that Hernandez may get is if there is a desperate need and RDLR and Webster are not ready for the bigs. I would love to see what he can do and maybe we will get a look at him this season.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 9, 2013 23:22:55 GMT -5
... 2. LH specialists are usually power pitchers that can put away a big LH hitter such as Prince Fielder in a big situation. Hernandez in not a power pitcher in any way. He would make a terrible LH specialist. ... That's just not true. There are lots of LOOGY's who can barely get the ball over 80 mph on the gun. Javier Lopez is one example, but there are others. He's been effective just about everywhere he's played.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 10, 2013 15:31:10 GMT -5
one or two spot starts in May really shouldn't tell you anything you don't already know. Completely agree, but I don't think that's a reason to never give him a shot either. The problem is when you are giving him a shot, you are not giving someone else a shot so it really depends where he falls on that list and how many "openings" there are. The Sox not doing well in the standings isn't enough to give anyone a chance let alone Hernandez. Let's skip all the examples of why a spot might not open up from one of the current 5 (Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Doubront and Dempster) and list all the players I would give a shot to ahead of Hernandez come midseason. The order of this list isn't all that important, but it goes something like this: 1. De La Rosa 2. Moralez 3. Wright 4. Aceves 5. Webster 6. Britton Depending on when during the season it is and how he's doing, I'd put Britton in front of him. Britton is on the 40 already, whereas Hernandez isn't. Hernandez doesn't need to be added to the 40 yet and I don't see why they would waste a spot protecting him. He's the type of guy you don't even bother protecting as he doesn't add enough value and the chances of him sticking with another team are slm to none.
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Post by dcri on Feb 10, 2013 15:39:29 GMT -5
Hernandez seems almost exactly like the kind of player the Sox have had in the past who eventually winds up somewhere else, and does well enough so that some question why the Sox let him go. I'm not saying this will happen, but it could. He does seem to be effectively blocked in his Sox progress.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Feb 10, 2013 15:46:15 GMT -5
If we see much of Hernandez this year, then it is a really bad sign for the organization. If he appears early in the season then it most likely means the team is really not doing well and the starting pitching depth is decimated. If he appears later in the season then it most likely means the top prospects (Webster, De la Rosa, Barnes, Britton - even Ranaudo and Workman) have not done enough to pass him (or stay ahead of him) on the depth chart.
Again, for those of you who seem to really like Hernandez, lets review his credentials: 1.) Low strike out rate. 2.) High walk rate. 3.) Poor scouting reports.
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Post by jmei on Feb 10, 2013 15:49:21 GMT -5
Hernandez seems almost exactly like the kind of player the Sox have had in the past who eventually winds up somewhere else, and does well enough so that some question why the Sox let him go. I'm not saying this will happen, but it could. He does seem to be effectively blocked in his Sox progress. Yeah, but there's an opportunity cost to giving him a shot as a starting pitcher, and I honestly think that opportunity cost is greater than the likelihood that he's more than a replacement-level starting pitcher. De La Rosa, Webster, and Wright all have much higher ceilings, at least similar floors (Wright might have a lower floor), and are already on the 40-man roster.
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Post by davidlaurila on Feb 10, 2013 18:56:30 GMT -5
Again, for those of you who seem to really like Hernandez, lets review his credentials: 1.) Low strike out rate. 2.) High walk rate. 3.) Poor scouting reports. 4. Organization thinks highly of him 5. Reached Triple-A in second full professional season 6. Excellent pitchability
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Post by bluechip on Feb 10, 2013 19:26:05 GMT -5
If we see much of Hernandez this year, then it is a really bad sign for the organization. If he appears early in the season then it most likely means the team is really not doing well and the starting pitching depth is decimated. If he appears later in the season then it most likely means the top prospects (Webster, De la Rosa, Barnes, Britton - even Ranaudo and Workman) have not done enough to pass him (or stay ahead of him) on the depth chart. Again, for those of you who seem to really like Hernandez, lets review his credentials: 1.) Low strike out rate. 2.) High walk rate. 3.) Poor scouting reports. Most starting pitching staffs lose multiple starters every year. It really depends upon when the lost of depth occurs. If you lose one starter in coming out Spring Training, Hernandez is as good a choice as any to take that rotation spot. Rubby De La Rosa is coming off surgery and will likely be on a limited pitch count. Webster needs at least a little time at AAA, and Barnes should be at AA. It makes no sense to rush any of the more highly regard prospects to the majors and set them up for failure, so the competition for the fifth spot is between Steven Wright and Chris Hernandez. While RA Dickey and Tim Wakefield had successful major league careers, the crafty lefties seem, on a whole, are more successful at the major league level than knuckle ballers.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Feb 10, 2013 20:19:04 GMT -5
Don't forget about the relievers that can spot start like Morales and Aceves. If there are injuries coming out of spring training, my preference for who fills the spot would be:
1. Morales 2. De la Rosa 3. Aceves 4. Wright 5. Doyle 6. Godfrey 7. Webster 8. Hernandez
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 10, 2013 20:25:14 GMT -5
6. Excellent pitchability Too often "pitchability" simply means "this guy is having success and we can't figure out why." Hernandez is putting up pretty good ERAs, but it's not like he's Tommy Milone or something. Milone doesn't have A+ stuff, but his smarts, mixing of pitches and the slowest slow curve in the business enabled him to totally dominate the minors. He hit Triple-A at 24 and struck out ten times as many batters as he walked. It was the type of performance that made the scouts, who didn't love him at a tools level, sit up and take notice. As a rule, I'm generally skepical of any pitcher who doesn't have a 2:1 K:BB ratio. If it's a pitcher without stuff that is likely to play up? Yeah, he's going to need to prove it at every level. I'm rooting for Hernandez to do well, he's a hard-working guy. But I watch him and ask myself "how is he going to get major league hitters out?" He can't walk 3.5 batters per nine, without striking guys out, and have success in the majors. In Triple-A, 30% of his fly balls stayed in the infield. Major league hitters just don't do that. All that said, if he can refine both the command and control of his curveball and make it into a major league quality second pitch, he can have a career.
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Post by bluechip on Feb 10, 2013 21:46:11 GMT -5
Many teams enter spring training with 6 or more MLB starting pitchers. The Red Sox will enter spring training with five. If one gets hurt in ST, what will they do?
There are really 4 categories of guys you listed:
1- The Major League Relievers, who have not started full-time since the Bush Administration (Morales and Acceves): Morales really cannot stay healthy as a starter. Acceves, while having the number of pitches, historically has an atrocious K:BB ratio, and has not been a full-time starter since 2009.
2 - The Future of the Rotation (Barnes, Webster and De La Rosa) - De La Rosa really should be handled with kid gloves, for the long term health of this team. Webster needs time in AAA. Barnes needs time in AA and potentially AAA. None of these players should be expected to break camp with the team, and personally, I would rather see them in the minors. It is possible that they might be ready in June or July, but I am not counting on it.
3 - The old minor league journeymen (Godfrey and Doyle) - These guys do not have good stuff. They have had lots of time to show MLB teams what they have, and really should not be considered more than AAA depth. I think calling them AAAA players is actually rather generous.
4 - The nontraditional pitchers (Wright and Hernandez) - Wright is a knuckleballer. Hernandez is a "crafty-lefty" if you like him, or a junkballer if you do not. Both are the closer to MLB ready than anyone else in the minors, and if one of the five projected starters does not break camp with the team, they have a chance to take that spot in the rotation. While the Red Sox have not had many junk ballers recently, and we all love guys who hit the high 90s on the radar gun, they do still succeed at the MLB level (though many many many more fail). Personally I would put more faith in the crafty-lefty than I would in the knuckle ball.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 10, 2013 22:35:52 GMT -5
3 - The old minor league journeymen (Godfrey and Doyle) - These guys do not have good stuff. They have had lots of time to show MLB teams what they have, and really should not be considered more than AAA depth. I think calling them AAAA players is actually rather generous. Doyle's never pitched in the majors, and has significantly better minor league numbers than Hernandez does. Much lower ERAs at every level, better strikeout rates, and walk rates almost half of Hernandez's. There's no reason to rate Hernandez higher than Doyle, either on stuff or results.
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Post by jmei on Feb 10, 2013 23:07:26 GMT -5
1- The Major League Relievers, who have not started full-time since the Bush Administration (Morales and Acceves): Morales really cannot stay healthy as a starter. Acceves, while having the number of pitches, historically has an atrocious K:BB ratio, and has not been a full-time starter since 2009. -Morales wasn't shifted to the bullpen because of injuries, but because his performance didn't cut it anymore as a starter. In his first five starts of 2008, he walked 17 and struck out 9 in 25.1 April innings, suffered a minor back injury, and after a 15-day DL stint, was optioned to the minors (still as a starter) for the rest of the year. In 2009, he had two bad MLB starts and was optioned again to the minors, where, after another string of bad starts, the Rockies converted him to relief. Note that his BB/9 was over 5 during this entire period, whereas he has cut his walk rate to less than 3.5 in his stint in a Red Sox uniform, including a very reasonable 3.55 BB/9 in nine starts. -Aceves has never had a walk rate higher than 3.32 in any major league season. Hernandez has only had a walk rate lower than 3.32 once in his minor league career. Aceves's K/9 in his two seasons in a Red Sox uniform are 6.32 and and 8.04. Hernandez's highest strikeout rate in the minor leagues is 6.33. Aceves is a pretty second-rate option as a starter (or as a reliever, for that matter), but Hernandez has given no indication that he'd be any better other than some illusory ERA numbers, which coincidentally Aceves had as well before regression hit him hard.
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