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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 10, 2013 23:07:44 GMT -5
I hate to burst your bubble, but Hernandez isn't in the mix to get a rotation spot even if 2 starters go down in spring training. There is no explanation necessary, it's just not happening.
However, since people like explanations, the best reasons are:
1. He's not on the 40 so they aren't going to cut someone else to add him when his projections are so bad.
2. They have a backlog of arms in the bullpen so moving Morales or Acceves to the rotation helps in that regard. There is little reason to say Morales cannot stay healthy in the rotation. He's only 27; plenty of career in front of him.
3. If they lost starters long term, they would trade for a solution better than Hernandez, if they didn't think Morales could do it, but my guess is they would have Morales starting.
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Post by bluechip on Feb 10, 2013 23:16:42 GMT -5
3 - The old minor league journeymen (Godfrey and Doyle) - These guys do not have good stuff. They have had lots of time to show MLB teams what they have, and really should not be considered more than AAA depth. I think calling them AAAA players is actually rather generous. Doyle's never pitched in the majors, and has significantly better minor league numbers than Hernandez does. Much lower ERAs at every level, better strikeout rates, and walk rates almost half of Hernandez's. There's no reason to rate Hernandez higher than Doyle, either on stuff or results. Except that Doyle is significantly older than Hernandez, spent four years at college, and only reach AAA at the age of 26. Also Hernandez was better at AA. I am not saying Hernandez is going to Jamie Moyer or Bill Lee, but...
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 10, 2013 23:33:50 GMT -5
When Moyer came up he didn't throw 86. He threw 86 when he was in his 40's. At that point he has all sorts of experience and great breaking pitches to draw off of. Hernandez is going to have to make it with shitty stuff with zero experience and all the jitters any young player has. Not only is it low probabiliy he can do it; it's low probability he gets a real chance because there pretty much always will be guys around with better stuff.
When he gets his chance he better succeed right away because he's not getting many opportunities. He'll be one of those guys that has to succeed on chance one so he gets another one. Then he better suceed on chances 2 - 20 to hammer it home that he might actually be something.
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Post by offthemonster on Feb 11, 2013 18:19:43 GMT -5
One of my favorite things about Chris Hernandez is the way he composes himself on the mound. Yes his numbers are not spectacular, but he is the guy you want on the mound to be a consistent starter year in and year out. When he steps onto the mound you know you're going to get 5 or 6 quality innings and will keep his team in the ballgame. He may not have the best stuff, but one thing that he does have is late movement that generates weak contact off the bat. His ball is never stratight (which is natural for a lefty) so this makes him more deceptive. Also when you watch him pitch he keeps the same motions in his delivery, which allows him to create even more deception because everything coming out of his hand is not easily discoverable. So if the chance arises and Chris Hernandez is given the chance to start, then I would vote that he gets his chance.
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Post by larrycook on Feb 16, 2013 9:56:14 GMT -5
3. If they lost starters long term, they would trade for a solution better than Hernandez, if they didn't think Morales could do it, but my guess is they would have Morales starting. Who do you think might be available for trade that is better than the internal options listed earlier?
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Post by sibbysisti on Feb 16, 2013 11:18:46 GMT -5
OT, I know, but Jamie Moyer for Darren Bragg was one of the worst trades Sox ever made. Not often mentioned.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 16, 2013 13:51:22 GMT -5
3. If they lost starters long term, they would trade for a solution better than Hernandez, if they didn't think Morales could do it, but my guess is they would have Morales starting. Who do you think might be available for trade that is better than the internal options listed earlier? Impossible to know, but I wasn't suggesting they'd make a trade before letting Morales or Acceves start. I said they would make a trade before testing Hernandez start. A million things would have to go horribly wrong before Hernadez is on the Red Sox mound. He's a low ceiling, low grade prospect not on the 40.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 17, 2013 23:22:23 GMT -5
OT, I know, but Jamie Moyer for Darren Bragg was one of the worst trades Sox ever made. Not often mentioned. It's rarely mentioned because it was so sensible at the time. Moyer had zero history of success, was 33 years old, and hadn't even earned a rotation spot with the mediocre '96 Sox until just before the all-star break. Then he rolled off four straight solid starts, going 3-0 with a 2.45 in July. The Mariners were desperate for starting pitching and the Sox were pretty much out of contention, so they offered a serviceable 3rd/4th outfielder for him to try to get the hot hand. The closest equivalent situation would be if Nate Robertson is pitching well for the Rangers this year. Jon Daniels, thinking "hey, this guy is pitching well, but he's Nate Robertson" flips him for Brandon Moss or Lucas Duda or someone of that ilk. But instead of being a fluke, Robertson pitches at a near-HOF level for the next 12 years, winning nearly 150 games with his new team. If that seems completely impossible, that's why Duquette flipped Moyer when he did.
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Post by welovewally on Feb 18, 2013 6:23:01 GMT -5
If Chris Hernandez is getting starts in Boston it means that the Red Sox have lost SP's to the 60 day DL & it's a lost season
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Feb 18, 2013 7:57:47 GMT -5
If Chris Hernandez is getting starts in Boston it means that the Red Sox have lost SP's to the 60 day DL & it's a lost season I disagree, after Aceves and Morales, your AAA starters are Rubby De La Rosa Graham Godfrey Charlie Haeger Steven Wright Chris Hernandez Terry Doyle De La Rosa would be the first choice, but he's coming back from injury and they want to be VERY controlling with his innings and workload, so who would you pick next? You don't call up Webster or Barnes from AA.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 18, 2013 9:42:09 GMT -5
Webster will be at Pawtucket.
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Post by hammerhead on Feb 18, 2013 9:48:59 GMT -5
I think it depends on the situation as well.... for example if Hernandez is lights out at AAA ,I could see them calling up Hernandez in a pinch if there are a couple injuries and a bunch of rain-outs force a couple double headers. It also matters if it's his turn in the rotation. Say if Morales has been pitching a lot and well from the pen and Rubby/Webster just had their turn in the rotation, you need a quick spot start on a long road trip or you have a double header. It's not completely inconceivable that Hernandez gets a "Stewart" like callup in the dog days, especially if the team is out of it. Stranger things have happened.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 18, 2013 10:00:51 GMT -5
For a spot start though, it's more likely someone on the 40-man gets the call. That puts Wright ahead of Hernandez. In the case of an emergency where nobody on the 40 man is available for some reason, and it's for a single start, I'd rather they purchase Godfrey (or someone of that ilk) who could be DFA'd when there is a roster crunch.
I understand that people have been following Hernandez for awhile now and would like to see him get a crack, but playing with his roster status would likely hurt him more than help him in the long run. What he needs is the organization to give him some time in Triple-A where he can try to mold his curve into a MLB-quality pitch, and then evaluate based on that. I just don't see him in the majors before September with the way the roster is constructed and where he is on the depth chart.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Feb 19, 2013 19:31:20 GMT -5
Hernandez is a strange and interesting case.
Everyone with any baseball knowledge looks at his tools and his stats and says "fringe major leaguer." But there's nothing at this point to be gained by doing anything but throwing him out on the AAA mound every 5th day and seeing what he does. After all, there isn't any reason he shouldn't be throwing 175 innings this season, so if he gets upwards of 27 AAA starts, they should push him to go as long as he can his starts 175/27 = 6.5, so if he deserves it, he should see a lot of 6 and 7-inning starts. Pushing him to fill his innings quota will also go a long way toward resolving whether his stuff, at the AAA level at least, has any chance of getting him multiple times through lineups.
So suppose he stays healthy, puts in close to 175 IP, and produces results in line with what he has done through his minor league progression -- lets say an ERA of 3.2 or 3.3, his usual 1.3 WHIP, his usual mediocre K/9, BB/9, and K/BB ratios? It's quite reasonable to expect that he can do this, especially if he is backed up by a reasonably good defense anchored by a SS that is as good as anyone on the planet right now. Does the organization really then declare "Sorry, we don't care what you've done all the way through the minors. The only thing you're good for is a mid-inning LOOGY in the majors."? I think the organization has to put him on the 40-man, bring him to major league spring training in 2014, and at least give him the opportunity to sink or swim as a starter, with no worse an outcome than that he's blocked by the major league rotation at that time and he's sent back to Pawtucket as the first callup option in case of injury in the rotation. Now of course, all bets are off if he soils the bed at any point in this path, but frankly, I fully expect Hernandez to put himself in the position of the guy who hangs around, continually saying "Ahem. What about me?" by his performance.
Another possibility is that Hernandez could become trade bait at some point, but would the return you'd get for him be worth more than the expected return from keeping him around and eventually seeing whether, against the odds, lightning happens to strike with him?
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Post by patrmac04 on Feb 19, 2013 20:37:04 GMT -5
Two words ... Kason Gabbard... I think this is the type of pitcher to garner some value with and trade to the A's. He gives solid depth where we have none for pennies... I always root for the underdog, but track record trumps my wishes.
Sent from my SGH-T999 using proboards
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