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Nathan Eovaldi (re-signed: 4 years/$68 million)
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Post by unitspin on Nov 28, 2018 13:24:45 GMT -5
I cannot see Houston spending 17 a yr at 4 or 5 years for a pitcher with questionable arm history. I personally am a big Evoaldi guy, I believe the red sox should bring him back. But for a middle market team to take a swing that big on a pitcher with young players that will have to be paid in the near future, I just do not see it. I could be wrong but it would not make sense to me in that position.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 28, 2018 13:29:53 GMT -5
The Houston Astros play in Houston, Texas. That team should have no payroll constraints whatsoever. At least none that the Boston Red Sox or Chicago Cubs don't have.
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Post by unitspin on Nov 28, 2018 17:10:13 GMT -5
Yes a middle market team you know one that has never been in the top 10 of spending unless I am missing something. A team that has never come close to spending 175 let alone 200 in payroll. If the astros are not a middle market team what are they? Last 5 years payroll rank 2018 11th, 2017 18th, 2016 30th, 2015 29th, and 2014 30th. Am I missing something?
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Nov 28, 2018 19:41:16 GMT -5
Yes a middle market team you know one that has never been in the top 10 of spending unless I am missing something. A team that has never come close to spending 175 let alone 200 in payroll. If the astros are not a middle market team what are they? Last 5 years payroll rank 2018 11th, 2017 18th, 2016 30th, 2015 29th, and 2014 30th. Am I missing something? In terms of market size, Houston is as big as Boston, and actually larger in Some stats. They are absolutely comparable in their ability to spend. The Chicago market is much larger than both, closer to NYC and LA than, say, amazing Milwaukee or Kansas City which should be too small to compete, but do anyways. Boston fans, with fewer stadium seats, each of which costs a ton, and just 650,000 downtown residents, about 2,500,000 metropolitan residents (compared to NY’s c. 11,000,000) offer incredible support to all their teams. Which is why the Sox ownership group gladly pours revenues back into payroll, support staff, charities, Fenway maintenance, JetBlue, scouting and development, etc. Houston fans are pretty supportive themselves. It’s the Astro’s turn to spend if they want to keep this run going, now that their homegrowns are also getting paid. Edit. Numbers are from memory and may overlay 2010 census with recent estimates, but are pretty close despite my memory. I don’t have time to run them now. Sorry about that.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 28, 2018 19:41:58 GMT -5
Yes a middle market team you know one that has never been in the top 10 of spending unless I am missing something. A team that has never come close to spending 175 let alone 200 in payroll. If the astros are not a middle market team what are they? Last 5 years payroll rank 2018 11th, 2017 18th, 2016 30th, 2015 29th, and 2014 30th. Am I missing something? They’re a cheap owner team. Houston is a top 10 media market in the U.S., and top 10 in immediate metro population.
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Post by Smittyw on Nov 28, 2018 20:32:02 GMT -5
...y'all know what he meant.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 28, 2018 20:38:53 GMT -5
The question breaks into 2 parts: do they have the money; are they willing to spend it. The market isn't in the middle but the spending has been.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 28, 2018 21:09:28 GMT -5
Yes a middle market team you know one that has never been in the top 10 of spending unless I am missing something. A team that has never come close to spending 175 let alone 200 in payroll. If the astros are not a middle market team what are they? Last 5 years payroll rank 2018 11th, 2017 18th, 2016 30th, 2015 29th, and 2014 30th. Am I missing something? The Astros don't spend like the Sox, Yanks, or Dodgers. However, they most certainly have room in the budget for a guy like Eovaldi. He's a hometown guy who is a guy on the market who has the ability to be an ace at a very reasonable cost. You don't have to spend Price or Kershaw money to get Eovaldi and if he's put it all together as he was giving indications of during the post-season then 4 years $72 million or whatever it takes in that neighborhood is very well worth it. Mid-level teams can afford Eovaldi and if medicals check out as his agent says it does, then you have a guy with low mileage on his arm that is armed with a 102 MPH fastball, a wicked cutter, has excellent control, and is obviously not afraid of pitching in big games. Why should a team like the Astros be scared of "gambling" on him? He's a better bet going forward for them then a guy like Keuchel is. And then factor in what it might cost to keep Cole - a lot more than what Eovaldi will get if Cole has another great season - it makes all the sense in the world for the Astros to be all over Eovaldi. It would be a bigger gamble for them to let this opportunity slide by without doing everything they can.
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Post by lennsakata on Nov 28, 2018 21:28:07 GMT -5
Astros should be able to accommodate. verlander is only signed for another year at 28 mil then will be 36 going into free agency. Gerrit Cole will be a free agent after 2019. They have the benefit of a very effective FA pitcher in Charlie Morton who seems comfortable going year to year and seemingly wants to return. I think with the talent they have they’d be fine to add a fourth big ticket pitcher for one year...McHugh, Peacock, James and possibly Whitley will give them a well above average 5th starter. They should absolutely be all in for 2019. Assuming Morton is back next year - Cole, Verlander and Morton could all be gone after 2019 and McCullers will be limited coming back...Eavoldi would be good to have on hand
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 28, 2018 22:21:00 GMT -5
Market size is determined by revenues not city size. The Texas Rangers have the lions share of Texas' fan base. Houston ranks near the middle in MLB in spite of the city size, they are a mid-market team who will be facing some tough decisions in the not too distant future.
Houston has a history of poor fan support for their pro sports teams, anyone remember the Oilers ?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 28, 2018 22:57:16 GMT -5
Christopher Smith Verified account @smittyonmlb
David Price: Nathan Eovaldi 'better be re-signing' with Boston Red Sox
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Post by unitspin on Nov 29, 2018 0:01:59 GMT -5
Market size is determined by revenues not city size. The Texas Rangers have the lions share of Texas' fan base. Houston ranks near the middle in MLB in spite of the city size, they are a mid-market team who will be facing some tough decisions in the not too distant future. Houston has a history of poor fan support for their pro sports teams, anyone remember the Oilers ? Thank you someone that gets the concept that the payroll determines whether a team is bottom dweller, mid-market, or a big spender. Houston has never shown the stones to spend what makes you think they will now. Verlander comes off the books next season but altuves raise takes right over for that money. Cole will be a big fa next season that they will have to pay 25+ to keep if he puts up the same line as this season. Then your talking in the near future George Springer looking at a big payday, correa a cpl more years from a huge contract. Then bregman about 4 more years from a machado type contract. So I ask you honeslty, you think there going to pay 17+ for Evoaldi when this season might be the end of their contention window? I just dont see it happening. To each their own though.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 29, 2018 0:44:41 GMT -5
Market size is determined by revenues not city size. The Texas Rangers have the lions share of Texas' fan base. Houston ranks near the middle in MLB in spite of the city size, they are a mid-market team who will be facing some tough decisions in the not too distant future. Houston has a history of poor fan support for their pro sports teams, anyone remember the Oilers ? Thank you someone that gets the concept that the payroll determines whether a team is bottom dweller, mid-market, or a big spender. Houston has never shown the stones to spend what makes you think they will now. Verlander comes off the books next season but altuves raise takes right over for that money. Cole will be a big fa next season that they will have to pay 25+ to keep if he puts up the same line as this season. Then your talking in the near future George Springer looking at a big payday, correa a cpl more years from a huge contract. Then bregman about 4 more years from a machado type contract. So I ask you honeslty, you think there going to pay 17+ for Evoaldi when this season might be the end of their contention window? I just dont see it happening. To each their own though. Yes, I can see it happening. No, I don't see the Astros being major players for players will more than 100 million contracts. Eovaldi won't be one of those guys. The Astros did go out and get Verlander when they needed to spend money. And they will need to replace Verlander and Cole when they depart. Eovaldi is a cheaper alternative and is a guy, if things break right, could be top of the rotation type material - so yeah, I can see the Astros spending less money on Eovaldi then they would to re-sign Verlander or Cole. They're not going to let their core play out minus a pitching staff, one that probably won't have Keuchel in 2019 and won't likely have Verlander and Cole around in 2020. I'm guessing they can bring Morton back for this season if they want to and I suspect they will. Yes they will have James and Whitley to head the staff up in 2020 but Morton will likely be gone or more of a #5 by then, so they'll need another solid starter and Eovaldi is that guy. Does that mean Eovaldi is going to Houston? Not necessarily. If the Sox are willing to match or come very close, I think he'll go back to the Red Sox, but if there's distance between the Sox' offer and somebody else's offer, Eovaldi will probably leave, even if David Price forbids it.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 29, 2018 1:23:39 GMT -5
Market size is determined by revenues not city size. The Texas Rangers have the lions share of Texas' fan base. Houston ranks near the middle in MLB in spite of the city size, they are a mid-market team who will be facing some tough decisions in the not too distant future. Houston has a history of poor fan support for their pro sports teams, anyone remember the Oilers ? Revenue is a function of the audience size. The two Texas markets are nearly identical, and they're in the top 10 nationally, ahead of Boston. www.sportsmediawatch.com/nba-market-size-nfl-mlb-nhl-nielsen-ratings/
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 29, 2018 1:36:31 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 29, 2018 13:15:41 GMT -5
Christopher Smith Verified account @smittyonmlb David Price: Nathan Eovaldi 'better be re-signing' with Boston Red Sox Context is that the comment was made on Price's new Twitch channel while he was trash talking Eovaldi during a game of Fortnite.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 29, 2018 13:23:28 GMT -5
Christopher Smith Verified account @smittyonmlb David Price: Nathan Eovaldi 'better be re-signing' with Boston Red Sox Context is that the comment was made on Price's new Twitch channel while he was trash talking Eovaldi during a game of Fortnite. That sounds way better than a serious comment from the $217 million man. Do you know his twitch name? Edit - found it. slimdunkin1424 Damn, he didn't save the VODs. I'll guess on purpose.
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Post by unitspin on Nov 29, 2018 13:46:30 GMT -5
Well we will all find out just how big market the Astros are in a few months then we can revisit this. And you can mark me down for this is the last year of the Astros championship window bcs of spending issues.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 29, 2018 13:53:23 GMT -5
I can't read Phils numbers, wants me to pay. Yet from what I saw before the Astros don't spend because they lack revenue. As in they are closer to the bottom teams than the top teams. If I remember right there was like 100 to 200 million difference in revenue between the Red Sox and Astros.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 29, 2018 14:07:31 GMT -5
From 2011-2014, the Astros lost 416 games. I'm guessing they don't have the same level of support as a team like the Red Sox, including the willingness to pay for ridiculously priced season tickets.
The Astros 2018 attendance was 2,980,549. Red Sox - 2,895,575. But average ticket price? Astros - $40.25 Red Sox - $56.97. In 2014, their attendance was 1,751,829.
Revenue from ticket sales alone in 2018 (multiplied attendance by average price): Astros - $119,967,097.25 Red Sox - $164,960,907.75
The ticket price difference likely also means that every single other thing sold at Fenway such as parking and concessions is similarly that much higher than in Houston.
I saw a story from a few years ago that had Fenway as by far the most expensive place to watch a baseball game in the majors.
I would imagine that Houston is willing to increase payroll, but only in small increments because their support is quite tied to their performance.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 29, 2018 14:36:26 GMT -5
Thank you someone that gets the concept that the payroll determines whether a team is bottom dweller, mid-market, or a big spender. Houston has never shown the stones to spend what makes you think they will now. Verlander comes off the books next season but altuves raise takes right over for that money. Cole will be a big fa next season that they will have to pay 25+ to keep if he puts up the same line as this season. Then your talking in the near future George Springer looking at a big payday, correa a cpl more years from a huge contract. Then bregman about 4 more years from a machado type contract. So I ask you honeslty, you think there going to pay 17+ for Evoaldi when this season might be the end of their contention window? I just dont see it happening. To each their own though. Yes, I can see it happening. No, I don't see the Astros being major players for players will more than 100 million contracts. Eovaldi won't be one of those guys. The Astros did go out and get Verlander when they needed to spend money. And they will need to replace Verlander and Cole when they depart. Eovaldi is a cheaper alternative and is a guy, if things break right, could be top of the rotation type material - so yeah, I can see the Astros spending less money on Eovaldi then they would to re-sign Verlander or Cole. They're not going to let their core play out minus a pitching staff, one that probably won't have Keuchel in 2019 and won't likely have Verlander and Cole around in 2020. I'm guessing they can bring Morton back for this season if they want to and I suspect they will. Yes they will have James and Whitley to head the staff up in 2020 but Morton will likely be gone or more of a #5 by then, so they'll need another solid starter and Eovaldi is that guy. Does that mean Eovaldi is going to Houston? Not necessarily. If the Sox are willing to match or come very close, I think he'll go back to the Red Sox, but if there's distance between the Sox' offer and somebody else's offer, Eovaldi will probably leave, even if David Price forbids it.I'm curious as to whether you're projecting your own values onto Eovaldi, or you're just cynical about athletes and money. Or what.
So imagine this scenario.
You're a key employee at a company and were instrumental in a product launch that was historic, monumental. The work environment is incredible. You've gone to dinner with 20 or more of your fellow employees at a time. After work hours you frequently hang out and play video games. You put in a legendary week of overtime that was instrumental in that product launch and literally got a hug of thanks from 20+ members of your team.
Your contract is up. There's another equally as exciting product to be developed in the current year.
You know you deserve a big raise, so you set in your mind the figure you think you deserve and would be fully happy with.
You get that offer. It is literally more money than you could figure out how to spend. You're all set to sign the contract when ...
A competitor offers you 10% more. They seem like they might go to 15% or even 20%. You've heard their work environment is good (your boss used to work for them), but you only know a few of their guys. Their product development team is excellent, but not as good as yours. You have a chance to make history with your back-to-back products; they're trying to unseat you as the market leader. (Note that if it's the Braves or Phillies rather than the Astros, you have to substitute a much less rosy description of the competing company.)
Which offer do you take?
(Personally, literally no amount of extra money could make me leave. I do think that one reason why you might is if you have an ego thing and need to prove to people that wherever you go, success follows. But taking their offer just to get 10 - 20% more money than the amount that would make you perfectly happy, while giving up everything that's known in favor of the unknown, makes no psychological sense. Unless simply hearing that someone is willing to pay you more suddenly makes you unhappy with the amount you had been dreaming about. But that's kind of grossly dysfunctional.
Now, if Eovaldi has a longtime dream to play for his hometown team, that might make it a tougher decision.)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 29, 2018 14:51:57 GMT -5
Yes, I can see it happening. No, I don't see the Astros being major players for players will more than 100 million contracts. Eovaldi won't be one of those guys. The Astros did go out and get Verlander when they needed to spend money. And they will need to replace Verlander and Cole when they depart. Eovaldi is a cheaper alternative and is a guy, if things break right, could be top of the rotation type material - so yeah, I can see the Astros spending less money on Eovaldi then they would to re-sign Verlander or Cole. They're not going to let their core play out minus a pitching staff, one that probably won't have Keuchel in 2019 and won't likely have Verlander and Cole around in 2020. I'm guessing they can bring Morton back for this season if they want to and I suspect they will. Yes they will have James and Whitley to head the staff up in 2020 but Morton will likely be gone or more of a #5 by then, so they'll need another solid starter and Eovaldi is that guy. Does that mean Eovaldi is going to Houston? Not necessarily. If the Sox are willing to match or come very close, I think he'll go back to the Red Sox, but if there's distance between the Sox' offer and somebody else's offer, Eovaldi will probably leave, even if David Price forbids it.I'm curious as to whether you're projecting your own values onto Eovaldi, or you're just cynical about athletes and money. Or what. So imagine this scenario. You're a key employee at a company and were instrumental in a product launch that was historic, monumental. The work environment is incredible. You've gone to dinner with 20 or more of your fellow employees at a time. After work hours you frequently hang out and play video games. You put in a legendary week of overtime that was instrumental in that product launch and literally got a hug of thanks from 20+ members of your team. Your contract is up. There's another equally as exciting product to be developed in the current year. You know you deserve a big raise, so you set in your mind the figure you think you deserve and would be fully happy with. You get that offer. It is literally more money than you could figure out how to spend. You're all set to sign the contract when ...
A competitor offers you 10% more. They seem like they might go to 15% or even 20%. You've heard their work environment is good (your boss used to work for them), but you only know a few of their guys. Their product development team is excellent, but not as good as yours. You have a chance to make history with your back-to-back products; they're trying to unseat you as the market leader. (Note that if it's the Braves or Phillies rather than the Astros, you have to substitute a much less rosy description of the competing company.)
Which offer do you take? (Personally, literally no amount of extra money could make me leave. I do think that one reason why you might is if you have an ego thing and need to prove to people that wherever you go, success follows. But taking their offer just to get 10 - 20% more money than the amount that would make you perfectly happy, while giving up everything that's known in favor of the unknown, makes no psychological sense. Unless simply hearing that someone is willing to pay you more suddenly makes you unhappy with the amount you had been dreaming about. But that's kind of grossly dysfunctional.
Now, if Eovaldi has a longtime dream to play for his hometown team, that might make it a tougher decision.)
Just going with common sense. You're going with your Red Sox heart. Fact of the matter is that the Astros have as much chance to win as the Sox do. Say the Astros give 5 years $90 million and the Sox won't do more than 4 years 72 million, then he'll probably go to Houston. Maybe he doesn't know his teammates as much, but over the course of a contract he'll get an opportunity. Plus Houston is his home area, so I'm sure he knows more people in that area than he knows in Boston. The money example in here is significant. If the Astros offer 4 years $76 million and the Sox offer 4 years $72 million, then yes, I do think the offers are close enough that he'd go back to the Sox, for the reasons you state. Most players leave for extra dollars. It's the nature of their business. Andrew Miller turned down a 4 year 32 million deal to return to Boston to go to NY for 4 years 36 million despite saying how much he loved playing in Boston. It's rare when players turn down more money. It can happen. Tek probably could have made more money on the open market as could have Wakefield and Ortiz, but they didn't want to. Likewise Steve Pearce probably could have made more money but opted not to and that might be the case with Joe Kelly unless he gets an offer that blows him away. I'll always believe that if the Sox offer was in the vicinity of the Cubs Jon Lester would have come back, but it wasn't. There was a significant difference in the two offers, even though for 99.999% of the real world, they'd be so rich it wouldn't matter anyways. Most of the time though people go where the money is especially if the difference is significant. If it's not overly significant - and only Eovaldi can really define significant, not you or I, I'd guess he'd stay in Boston. Hope that's the case. I think Eovaldi is on the verge of a major breakthrough as far as going from a mid-rotation starter to a possible front of the rotation starter and I really hope that happens in Boston. All I can say is regardless where he goes he'll always be a Red Sox to me, and I'm sure to a lot of other people as well.
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Post by unitspin on Nov 29, 2018 15:03:22 GMT -5
I do not see the Astros outspending the red sox for evoaldi. What I could see happen is another big market team like the yanks or Phillies come in and offer an extra yr that could get him to accept more money and more years with another team. As for the Astros keeping their core intact it is not going to happen altuve next season jumps to 29+ a year for the forseable future. Cole is gone next year if he has a similar season as this year. Correa in a cpl years is looking at huge money. Four years Bergman is looking at a monster contract. Springer a year away from a huge pay increase. This all while they have lost their rotation depth this season with Morton and Dallas free agents and imo a crap bullpen. Watch what happens to Houston this season and next bcs if the sox do not make the right moves there in the same boat as Houston in 3 years.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 30, 2018 11:22:04 GMT -5
I love Eovaldi, but I'm not sure I want to get in a bidding war for him. The lack of innings he's proven he can handle in a season really scares me. It's hard when the guy was just a hero for us.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 30, 2018 12:12:22 GMT -5
I'm curious as to whether you're projecting your own values onto Eovaldi, or you're just cynical about athletes and money. Or what. So imagine this scenario. You're a key employee at a company and were instrumental in a product launch that was historic, monumental. The work environment is incredible. You've gone to dinner with 20 or more of your fellow employees at a time. After work hours you frequently hang out and play video games. You put in a legendary week of overtime that was instrumental in that product launch and literally got a hug of thanks from 20+ members of your team. Your contract is up. There's another equally as exciting product to be developed in the current year. You know you deserve a big raise, so you set in your mind the figure you think you deserve and would be fully happy with. You get that offer. It is literally more money than you could figure out how to spend. You're all set to sign the contract when ...
A competitor offers you 10% more. They seem like they might go to 15% or even 20%. You've heard their work environment is good (your boss used to work for them), but you only know a few of their guys. Their product development team is excellent, but not as good as yours. You have a chance to make history with your back-to-back products; they're trying to unseat you as the market leader. (Note that if it's the Braves or Phillies rather than the Astros, you have to substitute a much less rosy description of the competing company.)
Which offer do you take? (Personally, literally no amount of extra money could make me leave. I do think that one reason why you might is if you have an ego thing and need to prove to people that wherever you go, success follows. But taking their offer just to get 10 - 20% more money than the amount that would make you perfectly happy, while giving up everything that's known in favor of the unknown, makes no psychological sense. Unless simply hearing that someone is willing to pay you more suddenly makes you unhappy with the amount you had been dreaming about. But that's kind of grossly dysfunctional.
Now, if Eovaldi has a longtime dream to play for his hometown team, that might make it a tougher decision.)
Just going with common sense. You're going with your Red Sox heart. Fact of the matter is that the Astros have as much chance to win as the Sox do. Say the Astros give 5 years $90 million and the Sox won't do more than 4 years 72 million, then he'll probably go to Houston. Maybe he doesn't know his teammates as much, but over the course of a contract he'll get an opportunity. Plus Houston is his home area, so I'm sure he knows more people in that area than he knows in Boston. The money example in here is significant. If the Astros offer 4 years $76 million and the Sox offer 4 years $72 million, then yes, I do think the offers are close enough that he'd go back to the Sox, for the reasons you state. Most players leave for extra dollars. It's the nature of their business. Andrew Miller turned down a 4 year 32 million deal to return to Boston to go to NY for 4 years 36 million despite saying how much he loved playing in Boston. It's rare when players turn down more money. It can happen. Tek probably could have made more money on the open market as could have Wakefield and Ortiz, but they didn't want to. Likewise Steve Pearce probably could have made more money but opted not to and that might be the case with Joe Kelly unless he gets an offer that blows him away. I'll always believe that if the Sox offer was in the vicinity of the Cubs Jon Lester would have come back, but it wasn't. There was a significant difference in the two offers, even though for 99.999% of the real world, they'd be so rich it wouldn't matter anyways. Most of the time though people go where the money is especially if the difference is significant. If it's not overly significant - and only Eovaldi can really define significant, not you or I, I'd guess he'd stay in Boston. Hope that's the case. I think Eovaldi is on the verge of a major breakthrough as far as going from a mid-rotation starter to a possible front of the rotation starter and I really hope that happens in Boston. All I can say is regardless where he goes he'll always be a Red Sox to me, and I'm sure to a lot of other people as well. Exactly 10 to 20% if were talking about a contract in the 70 million range is a ton of money. I love Boston, great place to visit. I want no part of living their though. Also how does a guy from Texas feel about Massachusetts weather? You can love the company, doesn't mean you love the weather. I say this because I have three feet of snow in November! Every tree is covered, its litterally looks like a winter playland already. Been below average cold all month. I'm 36 and I'm already thinking of moving to Florida, Las Vegas, or Arizona. He has a family, so even though he could live the offseason else where kids make that hard with school.
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