SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 4, 2019 1:39:25 GMT -5
The Yankees don't worry me because they have an awesome bullpen. It's so good, they likely are going to get decreasing returns. It's the fact they have a stacked lineup, a greatly improved rotation and that bullpen. While the Red Sox match up very well till you get to the bullpen. I don't need a super bullpen, but I don't want one of the highest risk bullpens in recent memory either.
To chime in on the ship comments, it's like our bullpen is this massive boat. Has great upside, yet they forgot to include the life boats. If something goes wrong, it's going to be really bad. Our offense and starting pitching have life boats, just not our bullpen.
You should never want your season to hang on one game. Anything can happen and end your season. Heck I hate 5 game series, nevermind one game.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 4, 2019 13:47:36 GMT -5
It's instructive to see what Fangraphs has to say in their take on the top 26 Sox prospects. Here's their takehome for Hernandez: Here's the analysis for Houck: Here's the dope on Lakins: And finally, Feltman: Will they all push their way into the pen and compete for the closer's job? Fat chance, at least initially. Does the team have untapped resources? It sure seems like it to me. Dombrowski has operated the same way forever. He does not stash players in the minors. Those are players for the team to take advantage of, or fodder for trades. He's as predictable as the sunrise and we can expect exactly the same trajectory this year. I see Cora as the perfect agent to implement what is a very obvious game plan at this point. What's been said publicly and what others have posted on this board convinces me they will be very careful with their pitcher usage. I have no doubt that's why Erasmo Ramirez was brought in on a minor league contract with a spring invite. He's another warm body who might fill in at long reliever along with Johnson and Velazquez if he proves out. I also expect that he will rotate the closer's roll in easy wins, and then turn it into a meritocracy for tight games. Whoever looks as if they are performing will get the call. This guy works on data powered with a heavy dose of intuition. He's as removed from the set roles Farrell had as anyone I could imagine.
But I also expect we'll see those minor league assets put into play and sooner rather than later. Relievers have to come from somewhere, and right now the Sox minor league system seems to be as good as any place to look.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,029
|
Post by cdj on Feb 4, 2019 16:51:27 GMT -5
AJ Cole is available again
He’s got some interesting parts to him. Lots of swings and misses. Lots of chases. Could be an interesting multi-inning guy if they can work on his susceptibility to dingers
|
|
gerry
Veteran
Enter your message here...
Posts: 1,666
|
Post by gerry on Feb 4, 2019 21:11:21 GMT -5
I don’t know AJ Cole but he might complement the FO plan identified by Norm. Not signing Kimbrel or a Robertson (we were never getting Ottovino from the nyfy, and likely not Britton either) might be a big mistake but maybe not a fail, as this Bullpen has the components to be strong, versatile and very deep, with a bright future:
1. When the season opens in Seattle, featuring a pitching staff dealing with a traditional WS hangover, a Pen (example) of Barnes, Brasier, Thornburg, Hembree, Johnson, Velasquez, Wright might be perfect.
2. That leaves near ready reinforcements identified by Norm and Fangraphs of Feltman, Hernandez, Houck and Lakins. Most here hoped for Lakins and maybe Feltman in 2018, so it seems disingenuous to not want them now. I want them both asap if needed.
3. It also leaves our own Poyner, Shawaryn, C.Smith, Taylor near ready for 2019.
4. And legit promise from one or more recent pickups like Brewer, Mejia, Putnam, Erasmo, Runzler and others.
5. This is not an argument for quantity over quality. Kimbrel level quality is rare. Despite missing that rare star, a dozen of the above named are, in fact, high quality relievers, several with well above average ceilings. And they promise more than the low-mid level RP’s we thankfully didn’t waste a roster spot or $$$ to sign. Sox candidates are not the turnips so many in media make them out to be. 6. By not signing Kimbrel or Robertson to a long term contract, the Sox FO will have an additional $10-17M per year to help extend XB, JDM, Sale, Porcello beyond 2020. That is a plus plus.
7. That the potentially excellent “unproven” or “almost proven’” closers and set up guys like Barnes, Brasier, Brewer, Feltman, Lakins, C.Smith, Thornburg, among others, are not blocked is also a net positive.
8. Finally, Kimbrel remains unsigned and may sign a one year deal which makes all such discussion moot. And DDO still has the potential to trade a C and others for a “proven” closer.
So despite my deepest and deadly anxieties, IMO we have nothing to worry about.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 4, 2019 23:49:41 GMT -5
I hate the idea of rotating the closer duties. I mean if you had the Yankees bullpen OK I get that. I'm a big believer that having that doorstop impacts games. Forces managers to try all in type moves earlier in games because they know what awaits them.
Not sure what those prospects prove when talking about 2019. You want to use them as a reason not to give out a long term contract? OK that can make sense. The fact were talking about them is kinda scary. Only one is truly ready and even if you think DD pushes guys then why did Lakins not get called up? He was ready, was pitching really well and given the way our bullpen was pitching at that time it made sense. Almost everyone had him as a lock to get called up. Hernandez and Houck should be given time to be starters. Not rushed into reliever roles because we just wanted to be cheap and only sign minor league free agents
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,029
|
Post by cdj on Feb 5, 2019 10:41:13 GMT -5
Deploy Barnes like the Rays use Alvarado. Use him in the biggest spot possible during the last few innings. If it’s the 9th then it’s the 9th. Runners on in the 7th with 1 out in a 1 run game? Bring him out
Use Brasier like the Rays used Romo- If Barnes has been used in a bigger spot roll Brasier out in the 9th
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Feb 5, 2019 21:33:09 GMT -5
Deploy Barnes like the Rays use Alvarado. Use him in the biggest spot possible during the last few innings. If it’s the 9th then it’s the 9th. Runners on in the 7th with 1 out in a 1 run game? Bring him out Use Brasier like the Rays used Romo- If Barnes has been used in a bigger spot roll Brasier out in the 9th I think that’s perfect. They have a number of fairly proven “reliable” (ie mid-3 to 4 ERA, may go multiple innings) guys like Hembree, Workman, etc. I think identifying the most reliable/best year-having third option (for days B&B need rest) and maybe the best situational platoon options (for example, maybe Shawaryn out of the ‘pen becomes a sort of latter-day Gene Nelson) is the only other real question, beyond “who from this gaggle of arms makes it?”, which is a ST and April question. I also think that if B&B need rest, particularly early in the season before starter workloads are at max, the rover option with Sale/Price/Eovaldi on their scheduled between-start day is a good one for high-leverage spots. They seem pretty wedded to getting creative, so I could definitely see a non-traditional (at least, last 30 y of tradition) approach based on leverage not inning being the MO.
|
|
|
Post by kingofthetrill on Feb 5, 2019 23:32:04 GMT -5
I feel like if it weren't for egos more teams would employ the "fire guy" rather than saving particular people for particular innings. Then you can match talent to "danger" so to speak (current score, number of runners etc) or to the part of the lineup at the plate.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,029
|
Post by cdj on Feb 5, 2019 23:36:25 GMT -5
Fortunately for the Sox it’s the perfect time for them to do it. None of them are used to being a closer, especially in this market. Don’t have to worry about egos when they haven’t been built up yet
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 6, 2019 0:46:26 GMT -5
Fortunately for the Sox it’s the perfect time for them to do it. None of them are used to being a closer, especially in this market. Don’t have to worry about egos when they haven’t been built up yet I get the impression that Brasier buried his a long time ago.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 12, 2019 6:15:40 GMT -5
His knee is in question to start the year. At this point, no one will probably truly know until spring training most likely. That's the thing to me. If he's toast, we're boned and looking pretty thin out there. Now if he's good, he should be all around tremendous in that possibly 2 inning role. We all saw it, albeit in limited time, last season. Found this nugget out of no where. Dombrowski said he expects Wright to be ready to go for the season I guess?
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Feb 12, 2019 7:12:05 GMT -5
Wright and Pedey had the same treatment, no? Understanding that there could be physical/mental variables person to person and with the 'procedure' having a limited track record, if only one makes it back, it would seem the less physically rigorous demands of pitching would favor Wright.
I imagine, at present, the Sox expect to give Pedey lots of rest....I would be happy with him having an 80 game season somewhere in the area code of prior performance. Beyond that I think we'd be in the gravy boat.
Wright has, to me and when he is (W)right, the best knuckler movement I've seen...certainly on the Sox. Closer?.. no ..too high a WHIP and a too ephemeral command.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 12, 2019 10:42:57 GMT -5
The other variable is the way the weather affects his performance. He mentioned the effect moisture has on his grip and the flight of the ball. He does seem to be a different pitcher when that happens. That's a joker in the deck, one that could show up at the wrong time.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 12, 2019 13:22:14 GMT -5
Given Wright's comments today about his knee, I think they're fools to expect anything out of him, and should consider positive contributions from him found money. At the very least, you've got to think he's done starting.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 12, 2019 13:24:28 GMT -5
That's the thing to me. If he's toast, we're boned and looking pretty thin out there. Now if he's good, he should be all around tremendous in that possibly 2 inning role. We all saw it, albeit in limited time, last season. Found this nugget out of no where. Dombrowski said he expects Wright to be ready to go for the season I guess? He made similar comments on January 18 that were discussed in this thread, I think. He's outwardly trying to justify the current bullpen. I personally don't read much into it.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Feb 12, 2019 13:28:44 GMT -5
Given Wright's comments today about his knee, I think they're fools to expect anything out of him, and should consider positive contributions from him found money. At the very least, you've got to think he's done starting. I didn’t see his comments — do you have a link? Sorry. Googled but didn’t come up with anything.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Feb 12, 2019 13:52:06 GMT -5
Given Wright's comments today about his knee, I think they're fools to expect anything out of him, and should consider positive contributions from him found money. At the very least, you've got to think he's done starting. I didn’t see his comments — do you have a link? Sorry. Googled but didn’t come up with anything.
|
|
gerry
Veteran
Enter your message here...
Posts: 1,666
|
Post by gerry on Feb 12, 2019 14:44:47 GMT -5
The other variable is the way the weather affects his performance. He mentioned the effect moisture has on his grip and the flight of the ball. He does seem to be a different pitcher when that happens. That's a joker in the deck, one that could show up at the wrong time. For the sake of easing in the WS Rotation, I am hoping he is ready for two of the 11 consecutive season opening games at Seattle (covered), Oakland (probably dry) and Phoenix (likely dry). Two games with plenty of rest in relatively warm and probably dry conditions are perfect for Wright, before returning to early-April chilly Boston.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 12, 2019 20:49:49 GMT -5
Given Wright's comments today about his knee, I think they're fools to expect anything out of him, and should consider positive contributions from him found money. At the very least, you've got to think he's done starting. I didn’t see his comments — do you have a link? Sorry. Googled but didn’t come up with anything. Yeap looks bad. Nevermind people.
|
|
|
Post by avonbarksdale on Feb 13, 2019 1:26:29 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 13, 2019 2:11:16 GMT -5
It's a crapshoot year to year for a lot of relievers, hell week to week. Kelly's post-season performance had me dropping my jaw. I mean 6 innings, 1 hit, no walks, no runs, and 10 Ks. That bolt of lightning is exactly what makes it hard for a team to know who to pay how much and for how long. It's entirely possible that Kelly 1.0 shows up to claim Kelly 2.0s money out there in LA.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Feb 13, 2019 6:00:33 GMT -5
Just a few things like bwar and fwar are different. Davis had a 1.1 bwar, not great by any means but his 5th straight seasons over 1 bwar. Overall that isn't an impressive group compared to this year and 3 of the top 15 went to play for the Rockies. The interesting part is the group under 5 million that didn't sign minor league deals. Tons of great value there just like there always is. Those were veteran pitchers that had done well in the past. It's why a bunch of use have said at the minimum bring in some Veteran arms with recent past success. That group did a lot better than minor league free agents who's highlighted by Perez and his only 30 innings. So I'm going to say this free agent class will be a lot different next year, it just had a lot more quality arms. I'm also going to say that the group of veterans that take under 5 million will greatly outperform minor league free agents overall. No crazy claims here, we see it year after year. For the last decade the best value has always been those veteran arms on low money deals. Sign a bunch of them and you'll do just fine.
|
|
|
Post by elbochie on Feb 13, 2019 12:53:54 GMT -5
Dan Jennings is out there...pretty good lefty...as is righty Adam Warren who can start or be an effective middleman...if Dombrowski wants a starter...he should trade or can Leon and sign Gio...not too shabby as a starter
|
|
|
Post by greenmonster on Feb 13, 2019 15:24:42 GMT -5
I find the story about looking for SP a bit curious. Is this just sloppy reporting and they are looking for RP or possibly just pitching. If in fact they are looking for SP is it possible that someone like Porcello could be on the move in favor of cap space??
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 13, 2019 15:28:50 GMT -5
I find the story about looking for SP a bit curious. Is this just sloppy reporting and they are looking for RP or possibly just pitching. If in fact they are looking for SP is it possible that someone like Porcello could be on the move in favor of cap space?? This quote from the article answers your question, I think. In other words (this is my interpretation), someone who can slide into the back of the rotation next year when Porcello leaves, and for this year would be a depth arm.
|
|
|