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Post by carmenfanzone on May 1, 2019 7:59:29 GMT -5
Does anyone know how far away Putnam and Carson Smith may be away from starting rehab assignments? Also, although he is suspended, do we know if Wright is throwing in Fort Myers? All three were useful relief pitchers at one time and maybe we get lucky and one of them can help us latter this year.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 1, 2019 15:51:51 GMT -5
Does anyone know how far away Putnam and Carson Smith may be away from starting rehab assignments? Also, although he is suspended, do we know if Wright is throwing in Fort Myers? All three were useful relief pitchers at one time and maybe we get lucky and one of them can help us latter this year. I know Putnam is throwing in extended. I am unsure on Smith.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 2, 2019 9:14:57 GMT -5
Current Bullpen stats. This spreadsheet can be updated in a jiffy so I may post it pretty often. Use is BFP * LI. Quality is jxwOBA, Expected weighted OBA allowed, adjusted for balls hit to CF and quality of opponents. Results is jWPA/Yr, leverage-adjusted Win probability Added per 60 IP. Name Use Quality Results Matt Barnes 71 .237 1.27 Brandon Workman 50 .267 -.38 Marcus Walden 73 .268 1.56 Colten Brewer 49 .322 -3.94 Ryan Brasier 78 .336 3.20 Tyler Thornburg 11 .342 2.30 Heath Hembree 41 .344 -.17 Darw. Hernandez 6 .305 1.16 Travis Lakins 8 .421 .50 Bobby Poyner 6 .579 -22.47 It's very interesting that the three most used guys rank 1-2-3 in actual results rather than in average quality of PA against.
Update:
Name Use Quality Results Matt Barnes 72 .240 1.33 Marcus Walden 84 .258 1.91 Brandon Workman 57 .260 -.12 Colten Brewer 54 .321 -3.02 Ryan Brasier 86 .333 3.13 Heath Hembree 49 .344 .19 Tyler Thornburg 12 .381 2.17 See upthread for Brasier's slow start and return to form.
Once everyone is healthy, there's not enough roster room for the first 6 guys, but that's likely to be rare enough that you'd just option Brewer temporarily. Only if he takes a step forward would trading Hembree even get on the table.
But Thornburg's spot gets iffy much more quickly.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 2, 2019 10:49:13 GMT -5
BTW, between his 4 outings as an opener and his relief work, Velazquez has a larger sample size than any of the full-time relievers (77 BFP) and has a .289 Quality. Once he's not needed as a starter, he might well be a better option as the 5th guy in the pen than Hembree or Brewer, demoting either to a pure mop-up role.
This is based not just on his SSS, but on ST reports of improved stuff.
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orion09
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Post by orion09 on May 2, 2019 14:48:14 GMT -5
Current Bullpen stats. This spreadsheet can be updated in a jiffy so I may post it pretty often. Use is BFP * LI. Quality is jxwOBA, Expected weighted OBA allowed, adjusted for balls hit to CF and quality of opponents. Results is jWPA/Yr, leverage-adjusted Win probability Added per 60 IP. Name Use Quality Results Matt Barnes 71 .237 1.27 Brandon Workman 50 .267 -.38 Marcus Walden 73 .268 1.56 Colten Brewer 49 .322 -3.94 Ryan Brasier 78 .336 3.20 Tyler Thornburg 11 .342 2.30 Heath Hembree 41 .344 -.17 Darw. Hernandez 6 .305 1.16 Travis Lakins 8 .421 .50 Bobby Poyner 6 .579 -22.47 It's very interesting that the three most used guys rank 1-2-3 in actual results rather than in average quality of PA against.
Update:
Name Use Quality Results Matt Barnes 72 .240 1.33 Marcus Walden 84 .258 1.91 Brandon Workman 57 .260 -.12 Colten Brewer 54 .321 -3.02 Ryan Brasier 86 .333 3.13 Heath Hembree 49 .344 .19 Tyler Thornburg 12 .381 2.17 See upthread for Brasier's slow start and return to form.
Once everyone is healthy, there's not enough roster room for the first 6 guys, but that's likely to be rare enough that you'd just option Brewer temporarily. Only if he takes a step forward would trading Hembree even get on the table.
But Thornburg's spot gets iffy much more quickly.
Can you explain what you’re adjusting with the “j” in “jWPA”? Isn’t WPA inherently leverage-adjusted?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 2, 2019 15:12:08 GMT -5
Update:
Name Use Quality Results Matt Barnes 72 .240 1.33 Marcus Walden 84 .258 1.91 Brandon Workman 57 .260 -.12 Colten Brewer 54 .321 -3.02 Ryan Brasier 86 .333 3.13 Heath Hembree 49 .344 .19 Tyler Thornburg 12 .381 2.17 See upthread for Brasier's slow start and return to form.
Once everyone is healthy, there's not enough roster room for the first 6 guys, but that's likely to be rare enough that you'd just option Brewer temporarily. Only if he takes a step forward would trading Hembree even get on the table.
But Thornburg's spot gets iffy much more quickly.
Can you explain what you’re adjusting with the “j” in “jWPA”? Isn’t WPA inherently leverage-adjusted? Leverage is adjusted into WPA. I'm adjusting it out. In low leverage, what you do doesn't matter much, while in high leverage it matters a lot. But this gives guys who pitch in high leverage most of the time much larger game-by-game variations in the WPA they put up. If they diverge from average, their WPA is much higher or lower than someone who pitches mostly in low leverage, even if they pitch as well as one another and even if they have the same distribution of clutch across outings.
Thornburg has pitched once all season with a LI of > .52. It was the game in Detroit where he relieved Hembree with the Soc up a run and a man on first and two outs, struck out the hitter, and after Xander tied the game, breezed through the 7th. (And then Brewer gave up 3.)
He has a WPA of .18 on the season but an LI of .21. Because you're adjusting for a difference in variance, you can't just divide the .18 by .21 to project his WPA had he pitched in average leverage. What turns out to work (empirically) is to divide by LI^.6. So his WPA becomes .46 (instead of .86).
Only with this adjustment do you get a proper relationship of WPA to basic performance measures.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 2, 2019 18:04:46 GMT -5
Corey: Boston’s slow start has resulted from many things, bullpen not really being one of them despite the media’s off-season worry beads. And there appears to be quite a bit of reliever depth in the system. Can we stick a pin in the Boston needs to sign Kimbrel thing ? Not going to happen given the actual cost after tax penalties. I don’t think the Sox need anything other than just to play better (and a 2b staying healthy)
Keith Law: Agreed. I feel like the bullpen is not near the list of their biggest problems, and also something they could fix more easily.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 6, 2019 15:54:34 GMT -5
Current Bullpen stats.
Use is BFP * LI. Quality is jxwOBA, Expected weighted OBA allowed, adjusted for balls hit to CF and quality of opponents. Results is jWPA/Yr, leverage-adjusted Win probability Added per 60 IP.
Name Use Quality Results Matt Barnes 72 .240 1.33 Marcus Walden 84 .258 1.91 Brandon Workman 57 .260 -.12 Colten Brewer 54 .321 -3.02 Ryan Brasier 86 .333 3.13 Heath Hembree 49 .344 .19 Tyler Thornburg 12 .381 2.17
Update: Name Use Quality Results Matt Barnes 81 .223 1.68 Marcus Walden 83 .258 1.89 Brandon Workman 69 .266 .59 Brasier 4/17 on .290 -1.21 Hect. Velazquez 9 .300 .00 Colten Brewer 57 .312 -2.74 Heath Hembree 49 .342 .23 Ryan Brasier 100 .343 .52 Tyler Thornburg 13 .370 1.93 Josh A. Smith 1 .060 1.58 Darw. Hernandez 6 .300 1.16 Travis Lakins 8 .412 .50 Bobby Poyner 6 .579 -22.47
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Post by ericmvan on May 10, 2019 9:58:45 GMT -5
Update. "Quality" for Velazquez and Smith includes their starts.
Name Use Quality Results Matt Barnes 101 .239 2.12 Brandon Workman 80 .256 1.11 Marcus Walden 96 .276 1.72 Brasier 4/17 on .303 -1.31 Colten Brewer 57 .312 -2.74 Hect. Velazquez 9 .315 .00 Heath Hembree 63 .327 1.06 Ryan Brasier 113 .345 .43 Tyler Thornburg 13 .373 1.93
Ryan Weber 6 .250 1.63 Darw. Hernandez 6 .297 1.16 Josh A. Smith 4 .353 .37 Travis Lakins 8 .414 .50 Bobby Poyner 6 .582 -22.47 Unlike Brasier, Thornburg has no improvement trend. In fact, he's trending slightly worse.
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Post by jimed14 on May 13, 2019 11:17:34 GMT -5
For kicks, go check out the seasons so far for the following relievers that people suggested signing over and over again:
Familia Ottavino Robertson Miller Herrera Soria Cody Allen Rosenthal Justin Wilson Joe Kelly (sorry)
Walden and Workman have been far better than all of them and some of them are approaching Thornburg worthlessness.
Signing relief pitchers with "names" is probably the worst waste of money in baseball. I think the best bet for building bullpens is to find the next Ryan Brasier, Marcus Walden or Ty Buttrey (ouch).
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Post by ericmvan on May 13, 2019 13:00:57 GMT -5
Update. Velazquez and Smith Quality includes starts. Note that BP re-calculates Opponent Quality daily.
Brasier only fanned 1 in his mopup inning on Saturday, but Statcast has the contact he gave up as so weak that the outing grades as his best of the year, reducing his adjusted xwOBA since his awful stretch back to set-up caliber. He's had 10 good outings and 8 bad ones, but that was 2 good ones to start the season, then 5 bad out of 6, and now 7 good and 2 bad starting 4/17.
Name Use Quality Results Matt Barnes 101 .241 2.12 Brandon Workman 79 .268 1.12 Marcus Walden 102 .269 1.76 Brasier 4/17 on .275 -.92 Colten Brewer 58 .303 -2.63 Hect. Velazquez 9 .309 .00 Ryan Brasier 113 .327 .47 Heath Hembree 63 .329 1.06 Tyler Thornburg 13 .396 1.92 Ryan Weber 4 .241 1.95 Darw. Hernandez 6 .304 1.16 Josh A. Smith 4 .306 .31 Travis Lakins 8 .421 .50 Bobby Poyner 6 .578 -22.47
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on May 13, 2019 13:05:08 GMT -5
Signing relief pitchers with "names" is probably the worst waste of money in baseball. I think the best bet for building bullpens is to find the next Ryan Brasier, Marcus Walden or Ty Buttrey (ouch). Why is it so hard for people to understand that?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 18, 2019 16:49:27 GMT -5
Velazquez and Smith Quality includes starts. Note that BP re-calculates Opponent Quality daily. Name Use Quality Results Matt Barnes 101 .241 2.12 Brandon Workman 79 .268 1.12 Marcus Walden 102 .269 1.76 Colten Brewer 58 .303 -2.63 Hect. Velazquez 9 .309 .00 Ryan Brasier 113 .327 .47 Heath Hembree 63 .329 1.06
Update. Note that I included the Brasier partial line last time by accident.
Name Use Quality Results
Matt Barnes 127 .226 2.08 Marcus Walden 116 .247 2.24 Brandon Workman 101 .281 .23 Colten Brewer 58 .305 -2.63 Heath Hembree 73 .308 1.10 Hect. Velazquez 9 .310 .00 Ryan Brasier 132 .334 -.44
Tyler Thornburg 13 .397 1.92 Ryan Weber 4 .247 1.95 Darw. Hernandez 6 .309 1.16 Josh A. Smith 4 .311 .31 Travis Lakins 8 .430 .50 Bobby Poyner 6 .588 -22.47 Hembree is now a pretty clear choice as the guy who has been 4th best. Barnes and Walden look better than ever as a 1-2 punch; Brasier's failure to make that a trio is really the one thing that's wrong.
Brasier has options. Four guys on the current staff will be getting trimmed if Price, Eovaldi, Holt, and Pedroia all get healthy simultaeneously and no one else gets hurt (Nunez is also a goner in that scenario). Thornburg, Smith, and Weber are the obvious first three, but right now Brewer has a chance to steal a roster spot from Brasier, and as he has the stuff to be the #3 guy, I think we'll see him a bit now.
Of course, then there's Johnson and Wright to add to the mix.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 23, 2019 8:46:34 GMT -5
Matt Barnes 127 .226 2.08 Marcus Walden 116 .247 2.24 Brandon Workman 101 .281 .23 Colten Brewer 58 .305 -2.63 Heath Hembree 73 .308 1.10 Hect. Velazquez 9 .310 .00 Ryan Brasier 132 .334 -.44 Running the numbers after last night's game will make the next update look like everyone is trending better. We hope. Note that BP seems to have recalculated their Opponent Quality metric. All the guys who haven't pitched got worse. As always, Quality includes spot starts.
Name Use Quality Results Matt Barnes 141 .255 2.25 Marcus Walden 163 .270 2.13 Brandon Workman 122 .293 .55 Heath Hembree 90 .315 .72 Colten Brewer 73 .326 -2.32 Ryan Brasier 138 .329 -.11 Hect. Velazquez 11 .337 .00
Darw. Hernandez 6 .325 1.16 Josh A. Smith 4 .328 .59 Ryan Weber 9 .352 1.01 Tyler Thornburg 15 .407 1.71 Travis Lakins 8 .446 .50 Bobby Poyner 6 .595 -22.47
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Post by Addam603 on May 24, 2019 9:58:12 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 27, 2019 12:26:14 GMT -5
So I took a half a week off here because this board was getting borderline ridiculous again, calling Devers the best hitter in MLB. Came back to post a little known facts about bullpens across MLB and where the Sox stand.
So basically, if the Sox were in the NL and someone said "shut up Pedrofan, the Sox have one of the best bullpens in the NL, they're fine." I would be like, "ohh shoot you're right." The conversation would end there.
However this bullpen problem is a Red Sox playoff problem (if they make it in, they definitely look like a wild card team at the very least). Let's take a look at the Twins bullpen shall we-
Ohh then there's the Yankees bullpen with Chapman, Tommy Kahnle, Ottavino, Britton, and one of the 10 best relievers in baseball in Dellin Betances returning soon. Not to mention if Chad Green bounces back a little. That's a 5 or 6 man deep bullpen.
Let's look at the the Astros (who arguably have the worst depth out of all 3 teams here). Osuna, Will Harris, Pressly, Rondon. Then you have Josh James and Chris Devenski if they bounce back a little (both have good stuff). It wouldn't surprise me to see the Astros promote Forrest Whitley in a bullpen role or a trade here to make them maybe 5 deep.
Now let's look at the Sox. Barnes, Walden, Workman. That's it. Those are your 3 high leverage arms. Every other team is 5 deep most likely after July and at least 4 deep right at this moment.
Can you survive the regular season and make it in at least a wildcard spot?
Yeap, because the AL is mostly filled with garbage really. Can you survive in the playoffs? To be determined. Even if you're rolling out starters like last year, you *still* have worse depth then most of the AL's best teams right now.
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Post by hammerhead on May 29, 2019 0:42:42 GMT -5
So who's available on non-competitive clubs that seems to have a live arm and is within range with this farm systems trade chips?
Tonight's game makes it blatantly obvious that the pen is an arm or two short.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on May 29, 2019 0:59:02 GMT -5
So who's available on non-competitive clubs that seems to have a live arm and is within range with this farm systems trade chips? Tonight's game makes it blatantly obvious that the pen is an arm or two short. As I wrote in the other thread: Giants' Will Smith is Elite and will be a FA after this season so he won't be super expensive because you're trading for his services for 2/3 of a season but on the other hand their new FO seems competent so I don't know what they'll be asking for considering that he'll be highly in demand and I don't like trading valuable assets for relievers. If it's a Chatham, a Netzer and the likes then I'm ok with that but certainly not a Dalbec/Hernandez types. We'll see.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on May 29, 2019 1:03:29 GMT -5
BTW, couple of weeks from now, Steven Wright who was really good last year out of the bullpen will be back and that'll help.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 29, 2019 3:16:18 GMT -5
BTW, couple of weeks from now, Steven Wright who was really good last year out of the bullpen will be back and that'll help. Stephen Wright can't help you come playoff time though, that's if he even makes it to the end of the year without getting hurt again. He hasn't been able to stay healthy for more than a month for 2 straight years now. He might help you get to the postseason, but that's as far he'll take you.
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Post by dmaineah on May 29, 2019 6:27:55 GMT -5
BTW, couple of weeks from now, Steven Wright who was really good last year out of the bullpen will be back and that'll help. Stephen Wright can't help you come playoff time though, that's if he even makes it to the end of the year without getting hurt again. He hasn't been able to stay healthy for more than a month for 2 straight years now. He might help you get to the postseason, but that's as far he'll take you. Eovaldi, couple of weeks away, can help the pen get to the playoffs & in the postseason
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Post by costpet on May 29, 2019 8:04:09 GMT -5
When it comes to DD's attitude on the bullpen, I can't help thinking of Alfred E. Neuman's catch phrase..."What, me worry?"
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 29, 2019 11:03:03 GMT -5
Name Use Quality Results Matt Barnes 141 .255 2.25 Marcus Walden 163 .270 2.13 Brandon Workman 122 .293 .55 Heath Hembree 90 .315 .72 Colten Brewer 73 .326 -2.32 Ryan Brasier 138 .329 -.11 Hect. Velazquez 11 .337 .00
Darw. Hernandez 6 .325 1.16 Josh A. Smith 4 .328 .59 Ryan Weber 9 .352 1.01 Tyler Thornburg 15 .407 1.71 Travis Lakins 8 .446 .50 Bobby Poyner 6 .595 -22.47 Update. Velazquez's relief "Results" updated correctly for the first time in a bit. He, Smith, and Weber's "Quality" includes starts.
I'm going to devise a simple translation from Quality to Expected Results to measure everyone's karma.
Name Use Quality Results Marcus Walden 164 .262 1.64 Matt Barnes 166 .270 1.71 Brandon Workman 131 .289 .75 Colten Brewer 81 .308 -1.70 Ryan Weber 15 .310 1.01 Heath Hembree 99 .326 .61 Hect. Velazquez 12 .336 -1.09 Ryan Brasier 140 .353 -.97 Travis Lakins 43 .412 -3.16 Darw. Hernandez 6 .320 1.16 Josh A. Smith 4 .327 .59 Tyler Thornburg 15 .406 1.71 Bobby Poyner 6 .589 -22.47
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 29, 2019 15:21:02 GMT -5
I'll go out and say that I think the Sox are going to trade a top 5 prospect and probably more to acquire a big time bullpen arm come July.
Which prospect, TBD. You're in a position where you have to go for it with the payroll situation is what it is. Don't fall in love with the prospects this year at least.
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Post by orion09 on May 29, 2019 23:03:09 GMT -5
Name Use Quality Results Matt Barnes 141 .255 2.25 Marcus Walden 163 .270 2.13 Brandon Workman 122 .293 .55 Heath Hembree 90 .315 .72 Colten Brewer 73 .326 -2.32 Ryan Brasier 138 .329 -.11 Hect. Velazquez 11 .337 .00
Darw. Hernandez 6 .325 1.16 Josh A. Smith 4 .328 .59 Ryan Weber 9 .352 1.01 Tyler Thornburg 15 .407 1.71 Travis Lakins 8 .446 .50 Bobby Poyner 6 .595 -22.47 Update. Velazquez's relief "Results" updated correctly for the first time in a bit. He, Smith, and Weber's "Quality" includes starts.
I'm going to devise a simple translation from Quality to Expected Results to measure everyone's karma.
Name Use Quality Results Marcus Walden 164 .262 1.64 Matt Barnes 166 .270 1.71 Brandon Workman 131 .289 .75 Colten Brewer 81 .308 -1.70 Ryan Weber 15 .310 1.01 Heath Hembree 99 .326 .61 Hect. Velazquez 12 .336 -1.09 Ryan Brasier 140 .353 -.97 Travis Lakins 43 .412 -3.16 Darw. Hernandez 6 .320 1.16 Josh A. Smith 4 .327 .59 Tyler Thornburg 15 .406 1.71 Bobby Poyner 6 .589 -22.47
Eric, where do the bucket cutoffs fall for Top 30/League Avg/etc for the Quality Metric? Is League Avg around .320 or so?
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