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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 25, 2019 6:34:27 GMT -5
So you have 2 options in the bullpen which you can't trust at all in Thornburg and Brewer. You have one arm in Hembree who looks to headed for a down year. A unproven Lakins and Walden. Am I missing anything here with the group? You would have the same set of complaints if you were rooting for any other team in MLB.
Proven, consistent quality relievers are exceedingly rare. If you discount unproven guys who are pitching great like Walden and Workman, every bullpen in MLB looks dangerously thin.
The Sox pen ranks 3rd in the AL in Win Probability Added. The Yankees and Rays are 11th and 12th.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Apr 26, 2019 13:11:59 GMT -5
Pedro, I understand your angst. It’s been a disappointing month for sure. In April, though, the Pen has not been the problem. In fact it has been a real asset, despite flaws shared with any and every bullpen. I don’t know how you can say it lacks depth when Walden, Hernandez and Lakins have already proven valuable while guys like Feltman, Taylor, Shawaryn, Houck, and Jenrys are waiting their turn. IMO: -Barnes and Brasier are as expected in their roles, even a little better. They would improve any bullpen. -Workman is better than expected, with indications he has stabilized and this is sustainable. I am fine with a healthy homegrown keeper still defining his role following lengthy injuries. -Hembree is as expected, hot and cold, and is being used accordingly, at least until help arrives or he figures things out. -Velasquez is pretty darn good as a 2-3 inning longman. -It’s ok if the jury is still out on Brewer and Thornburg, who will or will not be studs by May or June. The Sox benefit if one or both prove their studliness, and we can wait anbit longer. -“Meanwhile” Lakins, Walden, Hernandez are ready right now, while Feltman, Taylor, Jenrys, BJ and several others are in the wings if they don’t; and Wright will be back in June. By any other name that’s a pitching plethora I simply refuse to worry about.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 26, 2019 13:23:14 GMT -5
Pedro, I understand your angst. It’s been a disappointing month for sure. In April, though, the Pen has not been the problem. In fact it has been a real asset, despite flaws shared with any and every bullpen. I don’t know how you can say it lacks depth when Walden, Hernandez and Lakins have already proven valuable while guys like Feltman, Taylor, Shawaryn, Houck, and Jenrys are waiting their turn. IMO: -Barnes and Brasier are as expected in their roles, even a little better. They would improve any bullpen. -Workman is better than expected, with indications he has stabilized and this is sustainable. I am fine with a healthy homegrown keeper still defining his role following lengthy injuries. -Hembree is as expected, hot and cold, and is being used accordingly, at least until help arrives or he figures things out. -Velasquez is pretty darn good as a 2-3 inning longman. -It’s ok if the jury is still out on Brewer and Thornburg, who will or will not be studs by May or June. The Sox benefit if one or both prove their studliness, and we can wait anbit longer. -“Meanwhile” Lakins, Walden, Hernandez are ready right now, while Feltman, Taylor, Jenrys, BJ and several others are in the wings if they don’t; and Wright will be back in June. By any other name that’s a pitching plethora I simply refuse to worry about. Gerry, I don't see how Hernandez and Lakins have already proven valuable. Each threw 1 game. I need a much larger sample size than that before I consider them "proven valuable". Walden has pitched well so far but his track record is way too small to make me think, "Well we can definitely rely on him." If he gets to June and is still doing what he's doing, then yeah, I'll have more faith in him, but until then, he's an unknown. As far as Workman goes, this is what he does. He pitches well for a stretch and you think, "yes, we can rely on him". Then he follows that up terribly and you think, "wouldn't want to see him on a post-season roster. Not even sure he's major league caliber at this point." And then when you give up, he starts pitching well again. When you say that others are waiting in the wings, we do, but the extent of the quality is in question. I can't imagine that you can expect anything from Taylor and Johnson is a long man at this point - we'll see how healthy he comes back. I would say that Mejia will be up soon, but I don't think he's much more than JAG at this point. Feltman, Hernandez, Lakins, and Houck have the best chance to impact the pen later in the year, but expecting them to go into high leverage and succeed right off the bat is asking a lot. Lakins will get the first look, but I don't think his ceiling is as high as the others. Hernandez still has control issues to work through. Houck and Feltman are further away. At this point I guess you given Thornburg another month or two but if we can continue to see more of the same, he's a guy to get rid of. Brewer's control isn't there. He probably should be in Pawtucket, and as you said Hembree is Hembree. The one good thing to come out of this is that Barnes and Brasier are establishing longer track records of success, and as you said, Walden and Workman have pitched well so far. There's been a huge drop-off in quality after that.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Apr 26, 2019 16:29:42 GMT -5
Champs, all that you say may be valid. All of Lakins, Hernandez, Feltman, Taylor, Walden, Mejia along with Shawaryn and Houck, may be incapable of high leverage appearances, or unable to help in 2019, or even bust. But what are the odds of that? There is real talent there. And yes Velasquez and Johnson and Wright are longmen, but in this strange era of short starts, those are valuable assets. Many are nervous about this Pen, which has ironically been a team strength (I know, so far). I would not die on this hill, but agree with DDo and Cora that the pieces are there, and we can see them already emerging.
I think Pedro is arguing that Brewer and Thornburg have been so bad they should not be in the Pen, and he ultimately may be right. But if even one of them finishes putting it together, and they might, we would have that 3rd late inning arm soon. If both become what we hoped for, the Pen becomes a beast.
I think Barnes, Brasier, Velasquez, Johnson make a good core. It is as likely that Workman is finally healthy and ready for late innings, and Walden is more than a fluke with options and really could be this year’s Brasier; as could Mejia. With the rotation, offense, defense, running game finally coming together, I am willing to let this complex bullpen drama play out, and hopeful it will play out quite well.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 26, 2019 18:14:55 GMT -5
I posted essentially the same thing Orion just did, elsewhere, and without the nice visuals (thank you!), after looking at the same data on savant. And we’re saying essentially the same thing: command for Thornburg is the issue. He’s leaving too many CB up, not elevating the 4 FB enough, and while the CH has been on the edge, it’s up a little bit. Is “command” a talent issue? Possibly, but Thornburg *has* been able to command in the past. He’s coming off TO surgery, which complicates things. He’s had a ton of time off, so it’s entirely feasible that his command problems are temporary. But, TO recovery is problematic and it’s possible that recovery of command might be prolonged or not happen at all. Personally, his pure stuff looks quite good, movemet’s good especially on the CB but also the CH, and it’s not like his FB is totally flat. Historically speaking he’s “talented,” and so I’m of a mind to give him time to sort things out. His plate discipline numbers are really relatively unchanged, except for first-pitch swings. Batters know he’s struggling with command and laying off. I think any sort of run of improved command will affect that and get him in more favorable counts, making his CB/CH more effective. He’s worth waiting on, at least until ASB time or so.
Brewer has terrific stuff and struggles with control. Sending him down might be an idea, but I think the big thing is getting the starters rolling so there’s less demand for BP innings and the quality arms represent a larger percentage of BP total innings. Get guys who have stuff but need reps time in low-leverage situations. I’m really not particularly concerned about the ‘pen for that reason.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 26, 2019 18:43:38 GMT -5
FWIW, I’ve looked at Walden’s deeper numbers and, SSS caveat, they’re encouraging. His SwStr rate is tremendous. He uses his arsenal effectively and locates each pitch well, heavy on the SL (40%), but with 3 FB (4, SI, CU) roughly equally. baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/marcus-walden-519393?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb. There’s something there, including new heavy reliance on a SL he buries well and much more 4FB use, where the command isn’t terrific but it’s solid, up, and gets some whiffs (18%). It probably also makes his SL down even better. He clearly has command of his SI, which used to be his primary straight FB. He throws both it and the 4FB at 94-95. He’s got a very nice 4-pitch mix...as a reliever. All of the metrics look good, from weak contact to SwStr rate to whiff rates on each pitch, to overall K rate to a very low average LA. It *might* not continue but there’s absolutely zero evidence that his gross numbers are smoke-and-mirrors. The results are real. Workman has gone to pitching backwards (as has Barnes), and this is the result. His 4FB and CB usage has flipped. baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/brandon-workman-519443?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb. Looking at the heat plots, his 4FB location is excellent, and the CB and CU both look good, too. I’m a lot more encouraged by fine performance *when accompanied by a demonstrable change that explains said results*. Workman is *not* the same pitcher he was. He’s different, we have hard data to show it, and soft data (stretch of regular appearances after injury time off, good health, consistent stuff and velo) to suggest that this is both a baseline change and sustainable to some extent. His xBA, xSLG, etc are in line with the results. Whiff rate on the CB is 40%, and it’s the pitch he’s using most (half the time). This is a new Brandon Workman.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 26, 2019 19:24:21 GMT -5
Continuing on the ‘pen, Brasier looks concerning actually. He’s getting barreled a lot, and it’s not that surprising given his 4FB location (he needs to elevate 6-8 inches although the clustering is fairly sound), and the SL, which is catching too much plate. His clustering on the SL is also a bit broad, suggesting not great command. baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/ryan-brasier-518489?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb. He’s actually been kinda lucky, which I think is pretty evident watching him. His velo is down a bit but still very good (95+; he was over 96 last year but it could be just cuz it’s early), which probably gives him a little leeway. The CH has a high whiff rate but the clustering there is problematic too...he’s got two hot zones and one is absolutely perfect just at the bottom edge of the zone, but the other is atrocious: almost in the heart of the zone. His walk rate is really low, so he actually probably could stand to avoid so many meatballs and try working the edges more. The SL is clearly his best pitch, with a whiff rate almost 50%, but looks like it’s the one he has least command of. I’d like to see him elevate the 4FB more and cut its usage, dropping down both SL and CH targets and throwing more of both, more like 40/40/20 (4FB/SL/CH) instead of 50/35/15 or so. Idk if the CH hotspot up is him trying to steal strikes, but those pitches are getting shelled. So’s his FB. He needs fine-tuning, and if he doesn’t there’s gonna be some ugly regression.
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 26, 2019 20:26:41 GMT -5
Yeah Workman is pitching backwards. His out pitch is sooo clearly the curve which he often leads with. Happily his FB in the last outing was at 93 rather than 90-91. At that latest speed, he can be a weapon. And unlike Brewer, he can consistently locate the curve in difficult to hit areas.
Brewer is a guy you would avoid in high leverage. Up big, down big, bring him in to 'save' the more effective pen members...seemingly great natural stuff but he is the quintessential box of chocolates...some good, some not so.
Walden is a step above Brewer more on a current Workman level. He has a good, not great, FB and some good breaking pitches. He has pretty good command.
Brasier is reliable and Barnes has the best combo of stuff.
If we had Kimbrel, (a missing link), that would be a huge boost.
In the minors, Feltman has high effort but an overrated, mediocre FB (today's game) and Hernandez is unreliable in high leverage due to very poor command. Those opting for Mejia or Lakins are sniffing and not looking at AAA stats....each a hit/inning. Mejia's ERA is in the high 4s. Really?
In sum, there are no saviors on our immediate horizon. We is what we is....
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 26, 2019 21:59:34 GMT -5
Yeah Workman is pitching backwards. His out pitch is sooo clearly the curve which he often leads with. Happily his FB in the last outing was at 93 rather than 90-91. At that latest speed, he can be a weapon. And unlike Brewer, he can consistently locate the curve in difficult to hit areas. Brewer is a guy you would avoid in high leverage. Up big, down big, bring him in to 'save' the more effective pen members...seemingly great natural stuff but he is the quintessential box of chocolates...some good, some not so. Walden is a step above Brewer more on a current Workman level. He has a good, not great, FB and some good breaking pitches. He has pretty good command. Brasier is reliable and Barnes has the best combo of stuff. If we had Kimbrel, (a missing link), that would be a huge boost. In the minors, Feltman has high effort but an overrated, mediocre FB (today's game) and Hernandez is unreliable in high leverage due to very poor command. Those opting for Mejia or Lakins are sniffing and not looking at AAA stats....each a hit/inning. Mejia's ERA is in the high 4s. Really? In sum, there are no saviors on our immediate horizon. We is what we is.... So then Feltman didn't have velocity during a rain out ? I'd disagree on the overrated but time will tell.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 26, 2019 22:03:24 GMT -5
Our relief pitching has been very good overall. I see less reason to see a decline than I do an improvement. Your mileage may differ, especially if you prefer to just ignore the stats.
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 27, 2019 0:03:00 GMT -5
Yeah Workman is pitching backwards. His out pitch is sooo clearly the curve which he often leads with. Happily his FB in the last outing was at 93 rather than 90-91. At that latest speed, he can be a weapon. And unlike Brewer, he can consistently locate the curve in difficult to hit areas. Brewer is a guy you would avoid in high leverage. Up big, down big, bring him in to 'save' the more effective pen members...seemingly great natural stuff but he is the quintessential box of chocolates...some good, some not so. Walden is a step above Brewer more on a current Workman level. He has a good, not great, FB and some good breaking pitches. He has pretty good command. Brasier is reliable and Barnes has the best combo of stuff. If we had Kimbrel, (a missing link), that would be a huge boost. In the minors, Feltman has high effort but an overrated, mediocre FB (today's game) and Hernandez is unreliable in high leverage due to very poor command. Those opting for Mejia or Lakins are sniffing and not looking at AAA stats....each a hit/inning. Mejia's ERA is in the high 4s. Really? In sum, there are no saviors on our immediate horizon. We is what we is.... So then Feltman didn't have velocity during a rain out ? I'd disagree on the overrated but time will tell. Nope. Feltman didn't pitch today...as the game was cancelled. But assuming that you were genuine in misunderstanding my meaning, I'll try to aid. So....'In baseball as it is broadly played today', Feltman's FB, clocked in the Spring at 93-94, is IMO quite mediocre velocity wise, especially for a relief pitcher. I caught one Portland game on TuneIn and the announcer mentioned Feltman throwing 94. That pitch speed is below most of the Sox pen currently. Feltman is relatively small in stature so big velo jumps are perhaps less likely. I used the term overrated referring to present velocity/command (and excluding spin rates/movement) vs that which has been reported 'can touch 99'. OTOH, it appears that Feltman has a very sharp, hard breaking ball and I'll bet that is his out pitch. Again IMO, he will have to gain a good deal more command to consistently help at the ML level. I could see Hernandez being the first pitching prospect to stick as he is a power lefty...something we don't currently have, but need in Boston.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 27, 2019 0:32:03 GMT -5
So then Feltman didn't have velocity during a rain out ? I'd disagree on the overrated but time will tell. Nope. Feltman didn't pitch today...as the game was cancelled. But assuming that you were genuine in misunderstanding my meaning, I'll try to aid. So....'In baseball as it is broadly played today', Feltman's FB, clocked in the Spring at 93-94, is IMO quite mediocre velocity wise, especially for a relief pitcher. I caught one Portland game on TuneIn and the announcer mentioned Feltman throwing 94. That pitch speed is below most of the Sox pen currently. Feltman is relatively small in stature so big velo jumps are perhaps less likely. I used the term overrated referring to present velocity/command (and excluding spin rates/movement) vs that which has been reported 'can touch 99'. OTOH, it appears that Feltman has a very sharp, hard breaking ball and I'll bet that is his out pitch. Again IMO, he will have to gain a good deal more command to consistently help at the ML level. I could see Hernandez being the first pitching prospect to stick as he is a power lefty...something we don't currently have, but need in Boston. I doubt if the Sox will use Darwinzon as a reliever unless it's absolutely necessary at least until he begins approaching his pitch limit and given the numbers the pen has been putting up, that doesn't seem likely any time soon. As far as Feltman goes, I have yet to see anybody other than posters here worried. This is all just the same BS as last year, totally ignoring the actual results and complaining based on what they speculate will happen. I didn't buy it then and I'm not buying it now. The pen is fine, you need to get over it.
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 27, 2019 6:11:39 GMT -5
Honestly, and with all due respect, I don't think you have the status to tell me what I need to get over.😉
You have your opinion and I have mine on the pen.
The universe is righting itself as Boston's hitting and starting pitching are settling into accustomed orbits. Most believed that the pen would be less stable. I still hold that expectation as it's currently constituted. We don't have a reliable lefty, Loogy or otherwise, and Hembree, Brewer, Thornburg (to date) offer little consistency. There is some hope with Thornburg given velocity uptick year over year. Maybe command is coming albeit several years post surgery.
As to stats, which you point out should not be ignored, the Sox BP has a 4.84 ERA and is presently ranked 24th. Brewer, Thornburg and Hembree sport ERAs of 7.45, 7.59 and 5.11 respectively. Brewer's whip is almost 2 and the best of the three is at 1.47. Collectively they have thrown 33 innings giving up 35 hits with 18 walks...Runs the blood cold.
At the minor league level, again Hernandez looks, to me, to have the most effective stuff especially being left handed. Obviously he needs reps in the hope that will enhance command. I wish that he had a more fluid, less effort filled delivery as I think that could help. He will continue to start down below. Whether he will be a starter initially with Boston or in the pen, will be determined by circumstances and need. I would bet the Sox will throttle back on usage as August approaches in hopes of saving bullets for the stretch.
Incidentally, my lychee trees are poised for a heavy crop. The mangoes are having a rest year. I suspect that yours are near ripe for the picking.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 27, 2019 7:49:42 GMT -5
You, champs and pedro are obsessed. A post once in a while is fine but it gets old very quick. It's the same crap every thread multiple times. When data which has a different opinion is presented, you all just ignore it. lol, ERA. The biggest problem with the bullpen is that the starters have overworked them.
Too early for the bulk of the mangoes (we don't have seasons per se, the mean temp difference month to month is less than 2 deg. C.) Our island is famous locally for mangoes (we have our own variety) and you usually know when the mangoes are ripe by the fruit bats (we also have the world's largest fruit bat population at Monfort Bat Cave). They only eat rotting fruit and they won't be out for at least another month, maybe 2.
Sad news, both out papaya trees went down (I'm on a limestone shelf with little dirt so the trees can't grow big roots). Our pineapples are ready (I'm assuming they only bear fruit once every two years, at least, ours do). We pretty much don't plant much, most everything is accidental. We have calamansi (a small lemon variety called calamondin in the USA), chilli peppers, and a variety of herbs and edible leaves. Next door is a coconut farm and several of our neighbors have more bananas and/or eggplant than they need.
About the only thing we put any effort into are pigs. We buy piglets 3-4 months in advance of when we plan a party. The chickens are free range, you just buy chicks, put a band on their leg and let them go. If you throw out some left over rice every day, they will keep returning.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 27, 2019 8:19:35 GMT -5
Honestly, and with all due respect, I don't think you have the status to tell me what I need to get over.😉 You have your opinion and I have mine on the pen. The universe is righting itself as Boston's hitting and starting pitching are settling into accustomed orbits. Most believed that the pen would be less stable. I still hold that expectation as it's currently constituted. We don't have a reliable lefty, Loogy or otherwise, and Hembree, Brewer, Thornburg (to date) offer little consistency. There is some hope with Thornburg given velocity uptick year over year. Maybe command is coming albeit several years post surgery. As to stats, which you point out should not be ignored, the Sox BP has a 4.84 ERA and is presently ranked 24th. Brewer, Thornburg and Hembree sport ERAs of 7.45, 7.59 and 5.11 respectively. Brewer's whip is almost 2 and the best of the three is at 1.47. Collectively they have thrown 33 innings giving up 35 hits with 18 walks...Runs the blood cold. At the minor league level, again Hernandez looks, to me, to have the most effective stuff especially being left handed. Obviously he needs reps in the hope that will enhance command. I wish that he had a more fluid, less effort filled delivery as I think that could help. He will continue to start down below. Whether he will be a starter initially with Boston or in the pen, will be determined by circumstances and need. I would bet the Sox will throttle back on usage as August approaches in hopes of saving bullets for the stretch. Incidentally, my lychee trees are poised for a heavy crop. The mangoes are having a rest year. I suspect that yours are near ripe for the picking. Looking at lychee in wiki, they look similar to a fruit we have called rambutan except the outside is fuzzy on ours.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 27, 2019 8:40:31 GMT -5
Lol, ya. I didn't think this conversation would lead to fuzzy fruit. That's on me. My apologies to the board. I started this.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 27, 2019 8:44:42 GMT -5
It's different than page after page after page of saying the same thing over and over and over again.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 27, 2019 8:56:31 GMT -5
It's different than page after page after page of saying the same thing over and over and over again. I have no problems against fuzzy fruit. I'll lay off the bullpen, I guess. The Sox made their own bed in it. They aren't spending money on it and I don't know if they got anything to trade to even improve it later on. The only options are in house if this becomes a fatal flaw. Add- I only bumped this thread to see if the Sox should try one last attempt at Kimbrel. Most people even don't think that's a good idea, or realistic. Second Add-Just trying to add humor with the fuzzy fruit post.
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 27, 2019 9:47:42 GMT -5
Honestly, and with all due respect, I don't think you have the status to tell me what I need to get over.😉 You have your opinion and I have mine on the pen. The universe is righting itself as Boston's hitting and starting pitching are settling into accustomed orbits. Most believed that the pen would be less stable. I still hold that expectation as it's currently constituted. We don't have a reliable lefty, Loogy or otherwise, and Hembree, Brewer, Thornburg (to date) offer little consistency. There is some hope with Thornburg given velocity uptick year over year. Maybe command is coming albeit several years post surgery. As to stats, which you point out should not be ignored, the Sox BP has a 4.84 ERA and is presently ranked 24th. Brewer, Thornburg and Hembree sport ERAs of 7.45, 7.59 and 5.11 respectively. Brewer's whip is almost 2 and the best of the three is at 1.47. Collectively they have thrown 33 innings giving up 35 hits with 18 walks...Runs the blood cold. At the minor league level, again Hernandez looks, to me, to have the most effective stuff especially being left handed. Obviously he needs reps in the hope that will enhance command. I wish that he had a more fluid, less effort filled delivery as I think that could help. He will continue to start down below. Whether he will be a starter initially with Boston or in the pen, will be determined by circumstances and need. I would bet the Sox will throttle back on usage as August approaches in hopes of saving bullets for the stretch. Incidentally, my lychee trees are poised for a heavy crop. The mangoes are having a rest year. I suspect that yours are near ripe for the picking. Looking at lychee in wiki, they look similar to a fruit we have called rambutan except the outside is fuzzy on ours. I have had Rambutan.....It's somewhere in the lychee category just a bit less juicy.....at least when it gets stateside. Whoever first tried it had to be a mountain of a man.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Apr 27, 2019 10:05:31 GMT -5
It's different than page after page after page of saying the same thing over and over and over again. I have no problems against fuzzy fruit. I'll lay off the fruit post. Maybe lightening will strike and JSmith will pitch effectively before they get around to junking him. That would be a lucky. O Felix culpa. I have 2 catalpa saplings growing by my driveway
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Post by telson13 on Apr 27, 2019 22:08:26 GMT -5
Brian Ellington. He will save the bullpen.
OK, maybe not. But he might prove useful by July. I’m not sweating Feltman’s velo yet, as most pitchers pick up as the season goes on. He’s pitching more now than he’s used to. But he’s certainly not forcing a AAA promotion.
I still contend that Walden will be a reliable arm. No, his FB isn’t “great,” but sitting 95 isn’t shabby, either, and what really matters is the weak GB contact and a SwStr rate approaching 15%. He’s been *excellent*, and all of the data say so.
Barnes is Barnes, he just keeps getting better. And Workman IS better, to the point where he’s actually been “good,” BB rate notwithstanding. Brasier’s been lucky but kinda bad, but I’m not too wortied just yet. That’s 4 arms, all pretty good to excellent. And that’s probably enough for now if the rotation can do its job for a while. I still think there’s another breakout coming, be it Thornburg fine-tuning, or Brewer mastering the coupling of 4FB/CU, or Ellington rediscovering 2015-2016, or any of the host of semi-fungible arms they have. The ‘pen isn’t the main problem this season, so until they sort out a lot else, it won’t be the thing keeping them from the playoffs.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 27, 2019 22:09:56 GMT -5
Also, rambutan are great except the seed is a pain. That’s where lychee have the huge advantage.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 29, 2019 18:11:16 GMT -5
Current Bullpen stats. This spreadsheet can be updated in a jiffy so I may post it pretty often. Use is BFP * LI. jxwOBA is Expected wOBA allowed adjusted for ball hit to CF and quality of opponents. jWPA/Yr is leverage-adjusted Win probability Added per 60 IP. Name Use jxwOBA jWPA/Yr Matt Barnes 71 .237 1.27 Brandon Workman 50 .267 -.38 Marcus Walden 73 .268 1.56 Colten Brewer 49 .322 -3.94 Ryan Brasier 78 .336 3.20 Tyler Thornburg 11 .342 2.30 Heath Hembree 41 .344 -.17 Darw. Hernandez 6 .305 1.16 Travis Lakins 8 .421 .50 Bobby Poyner 6 .579 -22.47 It's very interesting that the three most used guys rank 1-2-3 in actual results rather than in average quality of PA against.
Workman and Brewer have been incredibly un-clutch (I may do their slash lines by leverage later). Barnes has been below average, too.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 30, 2019 9:12:54 GMT -5
Brian Ellington. He will save the bullpen. OK, maybe not. But he might prove useful by July. I’m not sweating Feltman’s velo yet, as most pitchers pick up as the season goes on. He’s pitching more now than he’s used to. But he’s certainly not forcing a AAA promotion. I still contend that Walden will be a reliable arm. No, his FB isn’t “great,” but sitting 95 isn’t shabby, either, and what really matters is the weak GB contact and a SwStr rate approaching 15%. He’s been *excellent*, and all of the data say so. Barnes is Barnes, he just keeps getting better. And Workman IS better, to the point where he’s actually been “good,” BB rate notwithstanding. Brasier’s been lucky but kinda bad, but I’m not too worried just yet. That’s 4 arms, all pretty good to excellent. And that’s probably enough for now if the rotation can do its job for a while. I still think there’s another breakout coming, be it Thornburg fine-tuning, or Brewer mastering the coupling of 4FB/CU, or Ellington rediscovering 2015-2016, or any of the host of semi-fungible arms they have. The ‘pen isn’t the main problem this season, so until they sort out a lot else, it won’t be the thing keeping them from the playoffs. Without the quality of opponent adjustment (which I don't have a date filter for), Brasier had a .397 jxwOBA over 30 PA through April 14 and has been .269 over 22 PA since.
Meanwhile, Walden is now second to Barnes in jxwOBA and second to Brasier in jWPA/Yr. I may start calling those "Skill" and "Results."
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 30, 2019 9:33:29 GMT -5
The two guys who have trouble throwing strikes, Workman and Brewer, have combined for an .082 / .263 / .082 line in 76 PA in medium or low leverage.
In high leverage, they've faced 25 guys and allowed .350 / .560 / .550. Most of that, of course, is Brewer.*
It would be interesting to see if the discrepancy between expected WPA based on skill, and actual WPA, correlates to walk rate. With the game on the line, wild guys could be expected to change their approach to their detriment.
Workman seems to be more cautious in high lev, but not only does his BB% rise, that's when he's allowed his only 2 hits of the season. Brewer, OTOH, has pounded the strike zone (BB rate goes from .175 to .083) and has gotten killed.
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* Workman .222 / .462 / .222 (13 PA) vs. .000 / .222 / .000 (36 PA) * Brewer .636 / .667 / .818 (12 PA) vs. .152 / .300 / .152 (40 PA)
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